**Persistent commercial real estate pressures and a string of small-bank resolutions underpin the 63% market-implied probability of at least one additional U.S. bank failure by year-end.** Five institutions have already failed in 2026, with the latest—the $68 million Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank—closed by regulators on August 21 amid impaired capital and concentrated credit losses. Regional and community banks remain disproportionately exposed to CRE portfolios that hit new peaks in 2025, even as aggregate delinquency rates stay low. The Federal Reserve’s June 2026 stress tests confirmed that the largest banks can absorb more than $700 billion in losses while staying above minimum capital ratios, but these results do not fully capture risks facing smaller institutions. Traders are therefore pricing in continued resolution activity through December amid uneven credit quality and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
63% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
Sì
63% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.**Persistent commercial real estate pressures and a string of small-bank resolutions underpin the 63% market-implied probability of at least one additional U.S. bank failure by year-end.** Five institutions have already failed in 2026, with the latest—the $68 million Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank—closed by regulators on August 21 amid impaired capital and concentrated credit losses. Regional and community banks remain disproportionately exposed to CRE portfolios that hit new peaks in 2025, even as aggregate delinquency rates stay low. The Federal Reserve’s June 2026 stress tests confirmed that the largest banks can absorb more than $700 billion in losses while staying above minimum capital ratios, but these results do not fully capture risks facing smaller institutions. Traders are therefore pricing in continued resolution activity through December amid uneven credit quality and macroeconomic uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Mercato aperto: Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volume
$91Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.**Persistent commercial real estate pressures and a string of small-bank resolutions underpin the 63% market-implied probability of at least one additional U.S. bank failure by year-end.** Five institutions have already failed in 2026, with the latest—the $68 million Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank—closed by regulators on August 21 amid impaired capital and concentrated credit losses. Regional and community banks remain disproportionately exposed to CRE portfolios that hit new peaks in 2025, even as aggregate delinquency rates stay low. The Federal Reserve’s June 2026 stress tests confirmed that the largest banks can absorb more than $700 billion in losses while staying above minimum capital ratios, but these results do not fully capture risks facing smaller institutions. Traders are therefore pricing in continued resolution activity through December amid uneven credit quality and macroeconomic uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volume
$91Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Persistent commercial real estate pressures and a string of small-bank resolutions underpin the 63% market-implied probability of at least one additional U.S. bank failure by year-end.** Five institutions have already failed in 2026, with the latest—the $68 million Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank—closed by regulators on August 21 amid impaired capital and concentrated credit losses. Regional and community banks remain disproportionately exposed to CRE portfolios that hit new peaks in 2025, even as aggregate delinquency rates stay low. The Federal Reserve’s June 2026 stress tests confirmed that the largest banks can absorb more than $700 billion in losses while staying above minimum capital ratios, but these results do not fully capture risks facing smaller institutions. Traders are therefore pricing in continued resolution activity through December amid uneven credit quality and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti