Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain ongoing under the Pakistan-mediated temporary ceasefire first declared in April 2026 and later extended amid intermittent violations and disputes. Key sticking points include Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities, ballistic missile programs, sanctions relief, and control over the Strait of Hormuz, with recent U.S. rejections of Iranian proposals and continued naval blockades signaling incomplete alignment. Trader consensus at 100% No reflects the absence of a finalized permanent peace framework before any ceasefire expiration, consistent with prior stalled diplomatic rounds since 2025. A breakthrough on core security issues or rapid high-level concessions could still shift timelines within the resolution window, though structural barriers and enforcement uncertainties persist.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoUS x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?
$64,008 Vol.
$64,008 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$64,008 Vol.
$64,008 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal before the US-Iran ceasefire ends. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If neither a permanent peace deal nor the end of the ceasefire occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
Permanent Peace Deal:
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for the establishment of a permanent peace deal will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ceasefire Ends:
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to have ended if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source for the ceasefire ending will be official information from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain ongoing under the Pakistan-mediated temporary ceasefire first declared in April 2026 and later extended amid intermittent violations and disputes. Key sticking points include Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities, ballistic missile programs, sanctions relief, and control over the Strait of Hormuz, with recent U.S. rejections of Iranian proposals and continued naval blockades signaling incomplete alignment. Trader consensus at 100% No reflects the absence of a finalized permanent peace framework before any ceasefire expiration, consistent with prior stalled diplomatic rounds since 2025. A breakthrough on core security issues or rapid high-level concessions could still shift timelines within the resolution window, though structural barriers and enforcement uncertainties persist.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal before the US-Iran ceasefire ends. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If neither a permanent peace deal nor the end of the ceasefire occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
Permanent Peace Deal:
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for the establishment of a permanent peace deal will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ceasefire Ends:
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to have ended if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source for the ceasefire ending will be official information from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
If neither a permanent peace deal nor the end of the ceasefire occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
Permanent Peace Deal:
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for the establishment of a permanent peace deal will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ceasefire Ends:
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to have ended if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source for the ceasefire ending will be official information from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: May 23, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
Volume
$64,008Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 23, 2026, 3:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal before the US-Iran ceasefire ends. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If neither a permanent peace deal nor the end of the ceasefire occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
Permanent Peace Deal:
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for the establishment of a permanent peace deal will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ceasefire Ends:
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to have ended if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source for the ceasefire ending will be official information from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain ongoing under the Pakistan-mediated temporary ceasefire first declared in April 2026 and later extended amid intermittent violations and disputes. Key sticking points include Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities, ballistic missile programs, sanctions relief, and control over the Strait of Hormuz, with recent U.S. rejections of Iranian proposals and continued naval blockades signaling incomplete alignment. Trader consensus at 100% No reflects the absence of a finalized permanent peace framework before any ceasefire expiration, consistent with prior stalled diplomatic rounds since 2025. A breakthrough on core security issues or rapid high-level concessions could still shift timelines within the resolution window, though structural barriers and enforcement uncertainties persist.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal before the US-Iran ceasefire ends. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If neither a permanent peace deal nor the end of the ceasefire occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
Permanent Peace Deal:
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for the establishment of a permanent peace deal will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ceasefire Ends:
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to have ended if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source for the ceasefire ending will be official information from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
If neither a permanent peace deal nor the end of the ceasefire occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
Permanent Peace Deal:
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for the establishment of a permanent peace deal will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ceasefire Ends:
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to have ended if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source for the ceasefire ending will be official information from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$64,008Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 23, 2026, 3:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain ongoing under the Pakistan-mediated temporary ceasefire first declared in April 2026 and later extended amid intermittent violations and disputes. Key sticking points include Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities, ballistic missile programs, sanctions relief, and control over the Strait of Hormuz, with recent U.S. rejections of Iranian proposals and continued naval blockades signaling incomplete alignment. Trader consensus at 100% No reflects the absence of a finalized permanent peace framework before any ceasefire expiration, consistent with prior stalled diplomatic rounds since 2025. A breakthrough on core security issues or rapid high-level concessions could still shift timelines within the resolution window, though structural barriers and enforcement uncertainties persist.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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