Trader consensus on Polymarket narrowly favors Nicolás Maduro at 50.5% to remain Venezuela's leader by end of 2026, edging out acting president Delcy Rodríguez at 36%, despite his January 3 U.S. military capture and her ascension as interim head of state under constitutional succession. This reflects persistent uncertainty in the chavista-led transition, where Rodríguez has tightened her grip amid internal divisions and U.S. demands for elections and reforms during her first 100 days ending this week, but the repressive state apparatus endures intact. Opposition leaders like María Corina Machado, planning a return since early March, issued fresh calls for a presidential vote last week after the 90-day interim period lapsed without polls, though their sidelined status caps odds below 10%. Upcoming electoral pressures and diplomatic negotiations could shift the closely contested balance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLeader del Venezuela alla fine del 2026?
Leader del Venezuela alla fine del 2026?
Nicolás Maduro 51.7%
Delcy Rodríguez 35%
María Corina Machado 8%
Nessun capo di stato 1.4%
$82,855,638 Vol.
$82,855,638 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Nicolás Maduro
52%
Delcy Rodríguez
35%
María Corina Machado
8%
Nessun capo di stato
1%
Edmundo González
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Nicolás Maduro 51.7%
Delcy Rodríguez 35%
María Corina Machado 8%
Nessun capo di stato 1.4%
$82,855,638 Vol.
$82,855,638 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Nicolás Maduro
$1,078,454 Vol.
52%
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,425,469 Vol.
35%
María Corina Machado
$943,763 Vol.
8%
Nessun capo di stato
$796,793 Vol.
1%
Edmundo González
$611,518 Vol.
<1%
Donald Trump
$801,299 Vol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$698,323 Vol.
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$1,360,686 Vol.
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,108,149 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$487,683 Vol.
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$902,301 Vol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$8,279,044 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$24,825,181 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$4,403,410 Vol.
<1%
Dan Caine
$2,422,802 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$31,712,212 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Trader consensus on Polymarket narrowly favors Nicolás Maduro at 50.5% to remain Venezuela's leader by end of 2026, edging out acting president Delcy Rodríguez at 36%, despite his January 3 U.S. military capture and her ascension as interim head of state under constitutional succession. This reflects persistent uncertainty in the chavista-led transition, where Rodríguez has tightened her grip amid internal divisions and U.S. demands for elections and reforms during her first 100 days ending this week, but the repressive state apparatus endures intact. Opposition leaders like María Corina Machado, planning a return since early March, issued fresh calls for a presidential vote last week after the 90-day interim period lapsed without polls, though their sidelined status caps odds below 10%. Upcoming electoral pressures and diplomatic negotiations could shift the closely contested balance.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Mercato aperto: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$82,855,638Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Trader consensus on Polymarket narrowly favors Nicolás Maduro at 50.5% to remain Venezuela's leader by end of 2026, edging out acting president Delcy Rodríguez at 36%, despite his January 3 U.S. military capture and her ascension as interim head of state under constitutional succession. This reflects persistent uncertainty in the chavista-led transition, where Rodríguez has tightened her grip amid internal divisions and U.S. demands for elections and reforms during her first 100 days ending this week, but the repressive state apparatus endures intact. Opposition leaders like María Corina Machado, planning a return since early March, issued fresh calls for a presidential vote last week after the 90-day interim period lapsed without polls, though their sidelined status caps odds below 10%. Upcoming electoral pressures and diplomatic negotiations could shift the closely contested balance.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Volume
$82,855,638Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket narrowly favors Nicolás Maduro at 50.5% to remain Venezuela's leader by end of 2026, edging out acting president Delcy Rodríguez at 36%, despite his January 3 U.S. military capture and her ascension as interim head of state under constitutional succession. This reflects persistent uncertainty in the chavista-led transition, where Rodríguez has tightened her grip amid internal divisions and U.S. demands for elections and reforms during her first 100 days ending this week, but the repressive state apparatus endures intact. Opposition leaders like María Corina Machado, planning a return since early March, issued fresh calls for a presidential vote last week after the 90-day interim period lapsed without polls, though their sidelined status caps odds below 10%. Upcoming electoral pressures and diplomatic negotiations could shift the closely contested balance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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