The upcoming Victorian state election on 28 November 2026 features a Liberal-National Coalition holding a clear lead in recent primary vote polling around 30 percent, ahead of One Nation’s surge to 22-27 percent and Labor’s position near 21-26 percent, with Greens steady near 13-15 percent. Multiple surveys, including Redbridge and DemosAU releases from June to August, show the Coalition ahead on two-party preferred measures against Labor by margins of 54-46 to 57-43, reflecting voter shifts after more than a decade of Labor government. Labor’s July leadership transition to Ben Carroll produced modest primary vote gains but has not reversed the overall trajectory. One Nation’s elevated support, concentrated in specific seats, fragments traditional alignments and influences preference flows toward the Coalition in key scenarios. These patterns position the Liberal-National grouping as the frontrunner in trader assessments, while Labor, One Nation, and minor parties face structural barriers to securing a majority.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLiberal–National 63%
Labor 31%
One Nation 10%
Greens <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
28 nov 2026
Liberal–National
63%
Labor
18%
One Nation
10%
Greens
1%
Liberal–National 63%
Labor 31%
One Nation 10%
Greens <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
28 nov 2026
Liberal–National
$1,631 Vol.
63%
Labor
$341 Vol.
18%
One Nation
$72 Vol.
10%
Greens
$119 Vol.
1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).The upcoming Victorian state election on 28 November 2026 features a Liberal-National Coalition holding a clear lead in recent primary vote polling around 30 percent, ahead of One Nation’s surge to 22-27 percent and Labor’s position near 21-26 percent, with Greens steady near 13-15 percent. Multiple surveys, including Redbridge and DemosAU releases from June to August, show the Coalition ahead on two-party preferred measures against Labor by margins of 54-46 to 57-43, reflecting voter shifts after more than a decade of Labor government. Labor’s July leadership transition to Ben Carroll produced modest primary vote gains but has not reversed the overall trajectory. One Nation’s elevated support, concentrated in specific seats, fragments traditional alignments and influences preference flows toward the Coalition in key scenarios. These patterns position the Liberal-National grouping as the frontrunner in trader assessments, while Labor, One Nation, and minor parties face structural barriers to securing a majority.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Mercato aperto: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$2,161Data di fine
28 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).The upcoming Victorian state election on 28 November 2026 features a Liberal-National Coalition holding a clear lead in recent primary vote polling around 30 percent, ahead of One Nation’s surge to 22-27 percent and Labor’s position near 21-26 percent, with Greens steady near 13-15 percent. Multiple surveys, including Redbridge and DemosAU releases from June to August, show the Coalition ahead on two-party preferred measures against Labor by margins of 54-46 to 57-43, reflecting voter shifts after more than a decade of Labor government. Labor’s July leadership transition to Ben Carroll produced modest primary vote gains but has not reversed the overall trajectory. One Nation’s elevated support, concentrated in specific seats, fragments traditional alignments and influences preference flows toward the Coalition in key scenarios. These patterns position the Liberal-National grouping as the frontrunner in trader assessments, while Labor, One Nation, and minor parties face structural barriers to securing a majority.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$2,161Data di fine
28 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The upcoming Victorian state election on 28 November 2026 features a Liberal-National Coalition holding a clear lead in recent primary vote polling around 30 percent, ahead of One Nation’s surge to 22-27 percent and Labor’s position near 21-26 percent, with Greens steady near 13-15 percent. Multiple surveys, including Redbridge and DemosAU releases from June to August, show the Coalition ahead on two-party preferred measures against Labor by margins of 54-46 to 57-43, reflecting voter shifts after more than a decade of Labor government. Labor’s July leadership transition to Ben Carroll produced modest primary vote gains but has not reversed the overall trajectory. One Nation’s elevated support, concentrated in specific seats, fragments traditional alignments and influences preference flows toward the Coalition in key scenarios. These patterns position the Liberal-National grouping as the frontrunner in trader assessments, while Labor, One Nation, and minor parties face structural barriers to securing a majority.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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