Recent polling for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election shows a tight three-way primary vote contest among Labor, the Liberal–National Coalition, and One Nation, with the Coalition often edging ahead on two-party preferred measures. Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll has stabilized its position without reversing broader voter dissatisfaction after more than a decade in government. One Nation’s sustained primary support near or above 20 percent fragments the conservative vote, reducing the Coalition’s path to an outright majority while leaving Labor positioned to secure the second-highest seat total in most modeled outcomes. The Greens and other minor parties trail significantly, limiting their prospects for second place. Traders’ consensus therefore assigns Labor the highest implied probability of finishing second behind a likely Coalition plurality.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLabor 79%
Liberal–National 15.0%
One Nation 3.2%
Greens <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
28 nov 2026
Labor
79%
Liberal–National
15%
One Nation
3%
Greens
1%
Labor 79%
Liberal–National 15.0%
One Nation 3.2%
Greens <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
28 nov 2026
Labor
$1,083 Vol.
79%
Liberal–National
$283 Vol.
15%
One Nation
$410 Vol.
3%
Greens
$270 Vol.
1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election shows a tight three-way primary vote contest among Labor, the Liberal–National Coalition, and One Nation, with the Coalition often edging ahead on two-party preferred measures. Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll has stabilized its position without reversing broader voter dissatisfaction after more than a decade in government. One Nation’s sustained primary support near or above 20 percent fragments the conservative vote, reducing the Coalition’s path to an outright majority while leaving Labor positioned to secure the second-highest seat total in most modeled outcomes. The Greens and other minor parties trail significantly, limiting their prospects for second place. Traders’ consensus therefore assigns Labor the highest implied probability of finishing second behind a likely Coalition plurality.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Mercato aperto: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$2,046Data di fine
28 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election shows a tight three-way primary vote contest among Labor, the Liberal–National Coalition, and One Nation, with the Coalition often edging ahead on two-party preferred measures. Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll has stabilized its position without reversing broader voter dissatisfaction after more than a decade in government. One Nation’s sustained primary support near or above 20 percent fragments the conservative vote, reducing the Coalition’s path to an outright majority while leaving Labor positioned to secure the second-highest seat total in most modeled outcomes. The Greens and other minor parties trail significantly, limiting their prospects for second place. Traders’ consensus therefore assigns Labor the highest implied probability of finishing second behind a likely Coalition plurality.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$2,046Data di fine
28 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election shows a tight three-way primary vote contest among Labor, the Liberal–National Coalition, and One Nation, with the Coalition often edging ahead on two-party preferred measures. Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll has stabilized its position without reversing broader voter dissatisfaction after more than a decade in government. One Nation’s sustained primary support near or above 20 percent fragments the conservative vote, reducing the Coalition’s path to an outright majority while leaving Labor positioned to secure the second-highest seat total in most modeled outcomes. The Greens and other minor parties trail significantly, limiting their prospects for second place. Traders’ consensus therefore assigns Labor the highest implied probability of finishing second behind a likely Coalition plurality.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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