Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin divide between no AI model reaching 1550 ELO on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena in 2026 (39.5% implied probability) and Anthropic prevailing (38.5%), propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's recent seizure of the top spot at around 1503 ELO as of early April, eclipsing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro. This momentum stems from Anthropic's superior post-training optimizations and access to massive Amazon compute resources, enabling tighter human preference alignment amid scaling plateaus evident since February's 1481 peak. OpenAI and Google lag due to recent underwhelming updates, while lower-odds challengers like xAI and DeepSeek face compute and data hurdles. Watch for Claude Mythos leaks or rival frontier releases to tip the scales in the year's remaining months.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'intelligenza artificiale di quale azienda arriverà per la prima volta a 1550 su Chatbot Arena nel 2026?
L'intelligenza artificiale di quale azienda arriverà per la prima volta a 1550 su Chatbot Arena nel 2026?
Nessuno nel 2026 40%
Anthropic 39%
OpenAI 12%
Google 10%
$31,562 Vol.
$31,562 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Nessuno nel 2026
40%
Anthropic
39%
OpenAI
12%
10%
xAI
2%
DeepSeek
2%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Nessuno nel 2026 40%
Anthropic 39%
OpenAI 12%
Google 10%
$31,562 Vol.
$31,562 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Nessuno nel 2026
$5,082 Vol.
40%
Anthropic
$3,600 Vol.
39%
OpenAI
$5,104 Vol.
12%
$5,030 Vol.
10%
xAI
$3,968 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$2,473 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$2,132 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$2,066 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$2,106 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin divide between no AI model reaching 1550 ELO on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena in 2026 (39.5% implied probability) and Anthropic prevailing (38.5%), propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's recent seizure of the top spot at around 1503 ELO as of early April, eclipsing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro. This momentum stems from Anthropic's superior post-training optimizations and access to massive Amazon compute resources, enabling tighter human preference alignment amid scaling plateaus evident since February's 1481 peak. OpenAI and Google lag due to recent underwhelming updates, while lower-odds challengers like xAI and DeepSeek face compute and data hurdles. Watch for Claude Mythos leaks or rival frontier releases to tip the scales in the year's remaining months.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Mercato aperto: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volume
$31,562Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin divide between no AI model reaching 1550 ELO on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena in 2026 (39.5% implied probability) and Anthropic prevailing (38.5%), propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's recent seizure of the top spot at around 1503 ELO as of early April, eclipsing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro. This momentum stems from Anthropic's superior post-training optimizations and access to massive Amazon compute resources, enabling tighter human preference alignment amid scaling plateaus evident since February's 1481 peak. OpenAI and Google lag due to recent underwhelming updates, while lower-odds challengers like xAI and DeepSeek face compute and data hurdles. Watch for Claude Mythos leaks or rival frontier releases to tip the scales in the year's remaining months.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$31,562Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin divide between no AI model reaching 1550 ELO on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena in 2026 (39.5% implied probability) and Anthropic prevailing (38.5%), propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's recent seizure of the top spot at around 1503 ELO as of early April, eclipsing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro. This momentum stems from Anthropic's superior post-training optimizations and access to massive Amazon compute resources, enabling tighter human preference alignment amid scaling plateaus evident since February's 1481 peak. OpenAI and Google lag due to recent underwhelming updates, while lower-odds challengers like xAI and DeepSeek face compute and data hurdles. Watch for Claude Mythos leaks or rival frontier releases to tip the scales in the year's remaining months.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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