Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, at 82% probability of holding a diplomatic meeting with Iranian representatives by April 30, driven by his inclusion in the recent U.S. delegation to marathon Islamabad talks that collapsed on April 12 without agreement. Vice President J.D. Vance, who led that effort alongside Witkoff and Jared Kushner, follows at 75%, while President Donald Trump trails at 7% amid reluctance for direct presidential involvement. President Trump's April 15 remarks signaling the Iran war is "very close to over" and potential talks resuming "next two days," coupled with diplomats arranging a Pakistan-mediated second round, have elevated odds despite sticking points over Iran's nuclear program and the ongoing U.S. Strait of Hormuz blockade. A venue like Pakistan remains likely for any breakthrough before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
$102,435 Vol.
30 apr 2026
Donald Trump
7%
J.D. Vance
75%
Marco Rubio
8%
Jared Kushner
73%
Steve Witkoff
82%
$102,435 Vol.
Donald Trump
$85,476 Vol.
7%
J.D. Vance
$7,428 Vol.
75%
Marco Rubio
$5,097 Vol.
8%
Jared Kushner
$1,291 Vol.
73%
Steve Witkoff
$3,306 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, at 82% probability of holding a diplomatic meeting with Iranian representatives by April 30, driven by his inclusion in the recent U.S. delegation to marathon Islamabad talks that collapsed on April 12 without agreement. Vice President J.D. Vance, who led that effort alongside Witkoff and Jared Kushner, follows at 75%, while President Donald Trump trails at 7% amid reluctance for direct presidential involvement. President Trump's April 15 remarks signaling the Iran war is "very close to over" and potential talks resuming "next two days," coupled with diplomats arranging a Pakistan-mediated second round, have elevated odds despite sticking points over Iran's nuclear program and the ongoing U.S. Strait of Hormuz blockade. A venue like Pakistan remains likely for any breakthrough before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$102,435Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, at 82% probability of holding a diplomatic meeting with Iranian representatives by April 30, driven by his inclusion in the recent U.S. delegation to marathon Islamabad talks that collapsed on April 12 without agreement. Vice President J.D. Vance, who led that effort alongside Witkoff and Jared Kushner, follows at 75%, while President Donald Trump trails at 7% amid reluctance for direct presidential involvement. President Trump's April 15 remarks signaling the Iran war is "very close to over" and potential talks resuming "next two days," coupled with diplomats arranging a Pakistan-mediated second round, have elevated odds despite sticking points over Iran's nuclear program and the ongoing U.S. Strait of Hormuz blockade. A venue like Pakistan remains likely for any breakthrough before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$102,435Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, at 82% probability of holding a diplomatic meeting with Iranian representatives by April 30, driven by his inclusion in the recent U.S. delegation to marathon Islamabad talks that collapsed on April 12 without agreement. Vice President J.D. Vance, who led that effort alongside Witkoff and Jared Kushner, follows at 75%, while President Donald Trump trails at 7% amid reluctance for direct presidential involvement. President Trump's April 15 remarks signaling the Iran war is "very close to over" and potential talks resuming "next two days," coupled with diplomats arranging a Pakistan-mediated second round, have elevated odds despite sticking points over Iran's nuclear program and the ongoing U.S. Strait of Hormuz blockade. A venue like Pakistan remains likely for any breakthrough before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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