Roger Federer’s retirement from professional tennis following the 2022 Laver Cup remains the dominant factor behind traders’ 98.4% implied probability that he will not compete at Wimbledon. The eight-time champion, now 44, has not played an official ATP match since his final grass-court appearance at the All England Club and holds no ranking or confirmed entry into the 2026 draw. Recent exhibitions, including an Australian Open opening-ceremony appearance and a planned Hall of Fame doubles event later in the summer, have not altered this outlook, as they fall outside competitive tour requirements. While an unexpected wildcard or special exemption could theoretically reopen the possibility, the absence of any ranking eligibility, recent form, or official comeback signals leaves such outcomes highly remote in the current environment.