Alaska’s August 18 open primary and ranked-choice voting general election create fragmented outcomes for the Senate and governor races, driving the high share for “Other” alongside the listed combos. Democrat Mary Peltola leads incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan in ongoing Senate ballot counts, positioning her as the clear general-election frontrunner in a toss-up contest. On the gubernatorial side, Democrat Tom Begich’s recent withdrawal consolidates support behind Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, while multiple Republicans including Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson advanced from a crowded field for an open seat. Traders price the resulting uncertainty—stemming from potential RCV vote flows, turnout patterns in a historically Republican state, and limited post-primary polling—into elevated probabilities for both party sweeps and split results ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日民主党圧勝 35%
共和党圧勝 29%
知事は共和党、上院は民主党が勝利 22%
民主党が知事勝利、共和党が上院勝利 15%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党圧勝
35%
共和党圧勝
29%
知事は共和党、上院は民主党が勝利
22%
民主党が知事勝利、共和党が上院勝利
15%
民主党圧勝 35%
共和党圧勝 29%
知事は共和党、上院は民主党が勝利 22%
民主党が知事勝利、共和党が上院勝利 15%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党圧勝
$4,812 Vol.
35%
共和党圧勝
$1,438 Vol.
29%
知事は共和党、上院は民主党が勝利
$843 Vol.
22%
民主党が知事勝利、共和党が上院勝利
$1,507 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Alaska’s August 18 open primary and ranked-choice voting general election create fragmented outcomes for the Senate and governor races, driving the high share for “Other” alongside the listed combos. Democrat Mary Peltola leads incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan in ongoing Senate ballot counts, positioning her as the clear general-election frontrunner in a toss-up contest. On the gubernatorial side, Democrat Tom Begich’s recent withdrawal consolidates support behind Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, while multiple Republicans including Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson advanced from a crowded field for an open seat. Traders price the resulting uncertainty—stemming from potential RCV vote flows, turnout patterns in a historically Republican state, and limited post-primary polling—into elevated probabilities for both party sweeps and split results ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Aug 11, 2026, 11:07 AM ET
音量
$8,600終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 11:07 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Alaska’s August 18 open primary and ranked-choice voting general election create fragmented outcomes for the Senate and governor races, driving the high share for “Other” alongside the listed combos. Democrat Mary Peltola leads incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan in ongoing Senate ballot counts, positioning her as the clear general-election frontrunner in a toss-up contest. On the gubernatorial side, Democrat Tom Begich’s recent withdrawal consolidates support behind Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, while multiple Republicans including Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson advanced from a crowded field for an open seat. Traders price the resulting uncertainty—stemming from potential RCV vote flows, turnout patterns in a historically Republican state, and limited post-primary polling—into elevated probabilities for both party sweeps and split results ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$8,600終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 11:07 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Alaska’s August 18 open primary and ranked-choice voting general election create fragmented outcomes for the Senate and governor races, driving the high share for “Other” alongside the listed combos. Democrat Mary Peltola leads incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan in ongoing Senate ballot counts, positioning her as the clear general-election frontrunner in a toss-up contest. On the gubernatorial side, Democrat Tom Begich’s recent withdrawal consolidates support behind Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, while multiple Republicans including Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson advanced from a crowded field for an open seat. Traders price the resulting uncertainty—stemming from potential RCV vote flows, turnout patterns in a historically Republican state, and limited post-primary polling—into elevated probabilities for both party sweeps and split results ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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