Trader consensus heavily favors no arrest for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, with "No" implying 98.2% probability, driven by the complete absence of credible reports, investigations, or charges from DOJ or FBI in recent weeks. Ongoing civil disputes between Anthropic and the Pentagon—stemming from the company's refusal to lift AI safeguards for autonomous weapons—have led to lawsuits, court injunctions blocking bans on its models, and White House meetings over the new Mythos system, but these remain regulatory matters without personal criminal liability for Amodei. No recent scandals, indictments, or law enforcement actions have emerged to suggest otherwise, reflecting traders' assessment of low legal risk. Realistic shifts could involve unforeseen DOJ probes into AI contracts or export controls, though such barriers appear substantial absent new evidence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$157,049 Vol.
$157,049 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$157,049 Vol.
$157,049 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no arrest for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, with "No" implying 98.2% probability, driven by the complete absence of credible reports, investigations, or charges from DOJ or FBI in recent weeks. Ongoing civil disputes between Anthropic and the Pentagon—stemming from the company's refusal to lift AI safeguards for autonomous weapons—have led to lawsuits, court injunctions blocking bans on its models, and White House meetings over the new Mythos system, but these remain regulatory matters without personal criminal liability for Amodei. No recent scandals, indictments, or law enforcement actions have emerged to suggest otherwise, reflecting traders' assessment of low legal risk. Realistic shifts could involve unforeseen DOJ probes into AI contracts or export controls, though such barriers appear substantial absent new evidence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
音量
$157,049終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no arrest for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, with "No" implying 98.2% probability, driven by the complete absence of credible reports, investigations, or charges from DOJ or FBI in recent weeks. Ongoing civil disputes between Anthropic and the Pentagon—stemming from the company's refusal to lift AI safeguards for autonomous weapons—have led to lawsuits, court injunctions blocking bans on its models, and White House meetings over the new Mythos system, but these remain regulatory matters without personal criminal liability for Amodei. No recent scandals, indictments, or law enforcement actions have emerged to suggest otherwise, reflecting traders' assessment of low legal risk. Realistic shifts could involve unforeseen DOJ probes into AI contracts or export controls, though such barriers appear substantial absent new evidence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$157,049終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no arrest for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, with "No" implying 98.2% probability, driven by the complete absence of credible reports, investigations, or charges from DOJ or FBI in recent weeks. Ongoing civil disputes between Anthropic and the Pentagon—stemming from the company's refusal to lift AI safeguards for autonomous weapons—have led to lawsuits, court injunctions blocking bans on its models, and White House meetings over the new Mythos system, but these remain regulatory matters without personal criminal liability for Amodei. No recent scandals, indictments, or law enforcement actions have emerged to suggest otherwise, reflecting traders' assessment of low legal risk. Realistic shifts could involve unforeseen DOJ probes into AI contracts or export controls, though such barriers appear substantial absent new evidence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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