El Niño's rapid intensification through summer 2026 is the dominant driver pushing trader consensus toward a subdued Atlantic named-storm count near eight. Strengthening easterly wind shear across the Main Development Region, tied to a forecast very strong El Niño by October–December, is expected to disrupt tropical cyclogenesis and limit intensification despite near-average sea-surface temperatures. Colorado State University’s July update lowered its seasonal projection to nine named storms, aligning with NOAA’s May outlook favoring below-normal activity. Remaining uncertainty centers on the precise timing of peak shear, potential late-season weakening of the Pacific anomaly, and any short-term Atlantic warmth that could still support additional systems before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年のAtlantic Named Storms予測は？
2026年のAtlantic Named Storms予測は？
9以上 50%
7個以下 43%
8 39%
新規
新規
2026/08/10
7個以下
43%
8
39%
9以上
50%
9以上 50%
7個以下 43%
8 39%
新規
新規
2026/08/10
7個以下
$0 Vol.
43%
8
$0 Vol.
39%
9以上
$0 Vol.
50%
This market resolves based on Colorado State University (CSU)'s August 2026 Forecast which will be released on August 5, 2026 (https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html) and specifically CSU's forecast for total Named Storms for the full 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, as stated in the headline forecast table of the August 5, 2026 report. If the forecast is not released by August 10, 2026, this market resolves to "9+" which matches CSU's last forecast that was released on July 8, 2026.
If CSU's forecast includes a fractional value, this market resolves to the nearest whole number (with .5 rounding up). If the forecast includes a range, this market resolves to the midpoint of that range, rounded down to the nearest whole number.
A named storm is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater (tropical storm intensity or higher), as classified by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml).El Niño's rapid intensification through summer 2026 is the dominant driver pushing trader consensus toward a subdued Atlantic named-storm count near eight. Strengthening easterly wind shear across the Main Development Region, tied to a forecast very strong El Niño by October–December, is expected to disrupt tropical cyclogenesis and limit intensification despite near-average sea-surface temperatures. Colorado State University’s July update lowered its seasonal projection to nine named storms, aligning with NOAA’s May outlook favoring below-normal activity. Remaining uncertainty centers on the precise timing of peak shear, potential late-season weakening of the Pacific anomaly, and any short-term Atlantic warmth that could still support additional systems before November.
This market resolves based on Colorado State University (CSU)'s August 2026 Forecast which will be released on August 5, 2026 (https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html) and specifically CSU's forecast for total Named Storms for the full 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, as stated in the headline forecast table of the August 5, 2026 report. If the forecast is not released by August 10, 2026, this market resolves to "9+" which matches CSU's last forecast that was released on July 8, 2026.
If CSU's forecast includes a fractional value, this market resolves to the nearest whole number (with .5 rounding up). If the forecast includes a range, this market resolves to the midpoint of that range, rounded down to the nearest whole number.
A named storm is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater (tropical storm intensity or higher), as classified by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml).
If CSU's forecast includes a fractional value, this market resolves to the nearest whole number (with .5 rounding up). If the forecast includes a range, this market resolves to the midpoint of that range, rounded down to the nearest whole number.
A named storm is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater (tropical storm intensity or higher), as classified by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml).
マーケット開始日： Jul 30, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/08/10マーケット開始日
Jul 30, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on Colorado State University (CSU)'s August 2026 Forecast which will be released on August 5, 2026 (https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html) and specifically CSU's forecast for total Named Storms for the full 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, as stated in the headline forecast table of the August 5, 2026 report. If the forecast is not released by August 10, 2026, this market resolves to "9+" which matches CSU's last forecast that was released on July 8, 2026.
If CSU's forecast includes a fractional value, this market resolves to the nearest whole number (with .5 rounding up). If the forecast includes a range, this market resolves to the midpoint of that range, rounded down to the nearest whole number.
A named storm is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater (tropical storm intensity or higher), as classified by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml).El Niño's rapid intensification through summer 2026 is the dominant driver pushing trader consensus toward a subdued Atlantic named-storm count near eight. Strengthening easterly wind shear across the Main Development Region, tied to a forecast very strong El Niño by October–December, is expected to disrupt tropical cyclogenesis and limit intensification despite near-average sea-surface temperatures. Colorado State University’s July update lowered its seasonal projection to nine named storms, aligning with NOAA’s May outlook favoring below-normal activity. Remaining uncertainty centers on the precise timing of peak shear, potential late-season weakening of the Pacific anomaly, and any short-term Atlantic warmth that could still support additional systems before November.
This market resolves based on Colorado State University (CSU)'s August 2026 Forecast which will be released on August 5, 2026 (https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html) and specifically CSU's forecast for total Named Storms for the full 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, as stated in the headline forecast table of the August 5, 2026 report. If the forecast is not released by August 10, 2026, this market resolves to "9+" which matches CSU's last forecast that was released on July 8, 2026.
If CSU's forecast includes a fractional value, this market resolves to the nearest whole number (with .5 rounding up). If the forecast includes a range, this market resolves to the midpoint of that range, rounded down to the nearest whole number.
A named storm is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater (tropical storm intensity or higher), as classified by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml).
If CSU's forecast includes a fractional value, this market resolves to the nearest whole number (with .5 rounding up). If the forecast includes a range, this market resolves to the midpoint of that range, rounded down to the nearest whole number.
A named storm is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater (tropical storm intensity or higher), as classified by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml).
音量
$0終了日
2026/08/10マーケット開始日
Jul 30, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño's rapid intensification through summer 2026 is the dominant driver pushing trader consensus toward a subdued Atlantic named-storm count near eight. Strengthening easterly wind shear across the Main Development Region, tied to a forecast very strong El Niño by October–December, is expected to disrupt tropical cyclogenesis and limit intensification despite near-average sea-surface temperatures. Colorado State University’s July update lowered its seasonal projection to nine named storms, aligning with NOAA’s May outlook favoring below-normal activity. Remaining uncertainty centers on the precise timing of peak shear, potential late-season weakening of the Pacific anomaly, and any short-term Atlantic warmth that could still support additional systems before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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