Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38.5% implied probability for 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, driven by the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports—initiated April 13—and Iran's selective post-ceasefire controls capping passages at around 15 vessels daily, though actual volumes hover at 3-10 amid shipper risk aversion. Recent ship-tracking data from Kpler and MarineTraffic confirm minimal flows on April 14, primarily Iran-linked tankers and bulk carriers evading full enforcement, versus pre-crisis norms of 100+ daily transits. The 24.5% odds on 8-11 ships reflect potential modest upticks from shadow fleet maneuvers, while lower brackets signal persistent 90%+ traffic suppression; diplomatic breakthroughs or tightened patrols remain key swing factors ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日4-7 39%
8-11 25%
<4 11%
20+ 11%
新規
新規
2026/04/19
<4
11%
4-7
39%
8-11
25%
12-15
9%
16-19
7%
20+
11%
4-7 39%
8-11 25%
<4 11%
20+ 11%
新規
新規
2026/04/19
<4
$994 Vol.
11%
4-7
$446 Vol.
39%
8-11
$331 Vol.
25%
12-15
$380 Vol.
9%
16-19
$427 Vol.
7%
20+
$2,613 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38.5% implied probability for 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, driven by the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports—initiated April 13—and Iran's selective post-ceasefire controls capping passages at around 15 vessels daily, though actual volumes hover at 3-10 amid shipper risk aversion. Recent ship-tracking data from Kpler and MarineTraffic confirm minimal flows on April 14, primarily Iran-linked tankers and bulk carriers evading full enforcement, versus pre-crisis norms of 100+ daily transits. The 24.5% odds on 8-11 ships reflect potential modest upticks from shadow fleet maneuvers, while lower brackets signal persistent 90%+ traffic suppression; diplomatic breakthroughs or tightened patrols remain key swing factors ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
マーケット開始日： Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
音量
$5,192終了日
2026/04/19マーケット開始日
Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38.5% implied probability for 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, driven by the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports—initiated April 13—and Iran's selective post-ceasefire controls capping passages at around 15 vessels daily, though actual volumes hover at 3-10 amid shipper risk aversion. Recent ship-tracking data from Kpler and MarineTraffic confirm minimal flows on April 14, primarily Iran-linked tankers and bulk carriers evading full enforcement, versus pre-crisis norms of 100+ daily transits. The 24.5% odds on 8-11 ships reflect potential modest upticks from shadow fleet maneuvers, while lower brackets signal persistent 90%+ traffic suppression; diplomatic breakthroughs or tightened patrols remain key swing factors ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
音量
$5,192終了日
2026/04/19マーケット開始日
Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38.5% implied probability for 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, driven by the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports—initiated April 13—and Iran's selective post-ceasefire controls capping passages at around 15 vessels daily, though actual volumes hover at 3-10 amid shipper risk aversion. Recent ship-tracking data from Kpler and MarineTraffic confirm minimal flows on April 14, primarily Iran-linked tankers and bulk carriers evading full enforcement, versus pre-crisis norms of 100+ daily transits. The 24.5% odds on 8-11 ships reflect potential modest upticks from shadow fleet maneuvers, while lower brackets signal persistent 90%+ traffic suppression; diplomatic breakthroughs or tightened patrols remain key swing factors ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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