The May 28, 2026 static-fire explosion of a New Glenn booster at Cape Canaveral's sole active Launch Complex 36, which heavily damaged the pad with no injuries, forms the dominant driver behind the 88% market-implied probability against a 2026 liftoff. Official updates confirm repairs or an alternate site will require more than a year, pushing all planned missions—including Amazon Kuiper, Blue Moon landers, and Telesat payloads—into TBD status despite three prior flights (NG-1 in January 2025, NG-2 in November 2025, and NG-3 in April 2026). Blue Origin's CEO has stated a goal of returning to flight before year-end, yet the absence of an operational pad and ongoing facility assessments create substantial technical and schedule barriers that traders have priced into current odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/12/31
新規
新規
2026/12/31
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.The May 28, 2026 static-fire explosion of a New Glenn booster at Cape Canaveral's sole active Launch Complex 36, which heavily damaged the pad with no injuries, forms the dominant driver behind the 88% market-implied probability against a 2026 liftoff. Official updates confirm repairs or an alternate site will require more than a year, pushing all planned missions—including Amazon Kuiper, Blue Moon landers, and Telesat payloads—into TBD status despite three prior flights (NG-1 in January 2025, NG-2 in November 2025, and NG-3 in April 2026). Blue Origin's CEO has stated a goal of returning to flight before year-end, yet the absence of an operational pad and ongoing facility assessments create substantial technical and schedule barriers that traders have priced into current odds.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
マーケット開始日： Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
音量
$249終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.The May 28, 2026 static-fire explosion of a New Glenn booster at Cape Canaveral's sole active Launch Complex 36, which heavily damaged the pad with no injuries, forms the dominant driver behind the 88% market-implied probability against a 2026 liftoff. Official updates confirm repairs or an alternate site will require more than a year, pushing all planned missions—including Amazon Kuiper, Blue Moon landers, and Telesat payloads—into TBD status despite three prior flights (NG-1 in January 2025, NG-2 in November 2025, and NG-3 in April 2026). Blue Origin's CEO has stated a goal of returning to flight before year-end, yet the absence of an operational pad and ongoing facility assessments create substantial technical and schedule barriers that traders have priced into current odds.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
音量
$249終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The May 28, 2026 static-fire explosion of a New Glenn booster at Cape Canaveral's sole active Launch Complex 36, which heavily damaged the pad with no injuries, forms the dominant driver behind the 88% market-implied probability against a 2026 liftoff. Official updates confirm repairs or an alternate site will require more than a year, pushing all planned missions—including Amazon Kuiper, Blue Moon landers, and Telesat payloads—into TBD status despite three prior flights (NG-1 in January 2025, NG-2 in November 2025, and NG-3 in April 2026). Blue Origin's CEO has stated a goal of returning to flight before year-end, yet the absence of an operational pad and ongoing facility assessments create substantial technical and schedule barriers that traders have priced into current odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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