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Tech·Culture

Human moon landing in 2026?

icon for Human moon landing in 2026?
Tech·Culture

Human moon landing in 2026?

3% 確率
Polymarket

$1,953,531 Vol.

3% 確率
Polymarket

$1,953,531 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" for a human moon landing in 2026 (97% implied probability) due to confirmed schedule shifts in NASA's Artemis program.** Artemis II, the first crewed lunar flyby since Apollo, launched successfully on April 1, 2026, and returned in mid-April, validating SLS and Orion systems but without any landing capability. NASA then restructured the sequence in February 2026: the original Artemis III landing target moved to Artemis IV in 2028, while a redesigned Artemis III became a 2027 low-Earth orbit demonstration flight focused on docking tests with lunar landers from SpaceX (Starship HLS) and Blue Origin (Blue Moon). Starship lunar landing hardware remains in early development, with uncrewed demos and crewed surface operations not slated before late 2027 at the earliest. No other agency or commercial effort has demonstrated the necessary orbital refueling, lander readiness, or safety certifications for a 2026 crewed touchdown. Historical Artemis delays—driven by technical integration, testing shortfalls, and supply chain issues—reinforce the timeline. While near-term breakthroughs in private Starship flights or unexpected international acceleration could theoretically compress schedules, realistic barriers like regulatory approvals, vehicle certification, and the remaining six months of 2026 make any reversal highly improbable. The market reflects aggregated trader assessment of these verified program milestones rather than speculation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,953,531
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" for a human moon landing in 2026 (97% implied probability) due to confirmed schedule shifts in NASA's Artemis program.** Artemis II, the first crewed lunar flyby since Apollo, launched successfully on April 1, 2026, and returned in mid-April, validating SLS and Orion systems but without any landing capability. NASA then restructured the sequence in February 2026: the original Artemis III landing target moved to Artemis IV in 2028, while a redesigned Artemis III became a 2027 low-Earth orbit demonstration flight focused on docking tests with lunar landers from SpaceX (Starship HLS) and Blue Origin (Blue Moon). Starship lunar landing hardware remains in early development, with uncrewed demos and crewed surface operations not slated before late 2027 at the earliest. No other agency or commercial effort has demonstrated the necessary orbital refueling, lander readiness, or safety certifications for a 2026 crewed touchdown. Historical Artemis delays—driven by technical integration, testing shortfalls, and supply chain issues—reinforce the timeline. While near-term breakthroughs in private Starship flights or unexpected international acceleration could theoretically compress schedules, realistic barriers like regulatory approvals, vehicle certification, and the remaining six months of 2026 make any reversal highly improbable. The market reflects aggregated trader assessment of these verified program milestones rather than speculation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,953,531
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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よくある質問

「Human moon landing in 2026?」はPolymarket上の予測市場で、トレーダーがこのイベントが起こるかどうかに基づいて「はい」または「いいえ」のシェアを売買します。コミュニティによる現在の確率は「Yes」に対して3%です。例えば、「はい」が3¢で取引されている場合、市場はこのイベントが発生する確率を3%と集合的に評価しています。これらのオッズはトレーダーが新しい展開や情報に反応するにつれて継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「Human moon landing in 2026?」は$2 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Jan 7, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「Human moon landing in 2026?」で取引するには、答えが「はい」か「いいえ」かを選ぶだけです。各側には市場の暗示確率を反映する現在の価格があります。金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。「はい」のシェアを購入し、結果が「はい」と決まった場合、各シェアは$1を支払います。「いいえ」と決まった場合、「はい」のシェアは$0を支払います。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却して利益を確定したり、損失を抑えたりすることもできます。

「Human moon landing in 2026?」の現在の確率は「Yes」に対して3%です。これはPolymarketコミュニティがこのイベントの発生確率を3%と現在評価していることを意味します。これらのオッズは実際の取引に基づいてリアルタイムで更新され、市場の期待を継続的に反映するシグナルを提供します。

「Human moon landing in 2026?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。