SpaceX's completed June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, raising a record $75 billion, anchors current trader sentiment, yet Anthropic's targeted October listing at up to $2 trillion keeps the race tight at 53.5% versus 47.3% implied probability. The closely matched odds reflect uncertainty over whether Anthropic can execute a larger debut amid strong revenue momentum—its annualized run rate exceeded $65 billion by July—while absorbing massive capital demands and competing for institutional allocations. xAI's February merger into SpaceX consolidates exposure under the existing ticker, limiting standalone upside. Key swing factors include final pricing for Anthropic, equity market absorption capacity for back-to-back mega-deals, and any shifts in AI sector multiples or regulatory timelines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日スペースX 54%
Anthropic 47.2%
OpenAI <1%
バイトダンス <1%
$6,008,474 Vol.
$6,008,474 Vol.
2026/12/30
スペースX
54%
Anthropic
47%
OpenAI
1%
バイトダンス
<1%
Stripe
<1%
Databricks
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Discord
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
クラーケン
<1%
スペースX 54%
Anthropic 47.2%
OpenAI <1%
バイトダンス <1%
$6,008,474 Vol.
$6,008,474 Vol.
2026/12/30
スペースX
$881,370 Vol.
54%
Anthropic
$1,112,410 Vol.
47%
OpenAI
$563,909 Vol.
1%
バイトダンス
$213,990 Vol.
<1%
Stripe
$134,177 Vol.
<1%
Databricks
$615,211 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$583,615 Vol.
<1%
Waymo
$318,150 Vol.
<1%
Revolut
$633,808 Vol.
<1%
Discord
$182,734 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$108,136 Vol.
<1%
クラーケン
$660,964 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's completed June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, raising a record $75 billion, anchors current trader sentiment, yet Anthropic's targeted October listing at up to $2 trillion keeps the race tight at 53.5% versus 47.3% implied probability. The closely matched odds reflect uncertainty over whether Anthropic can execute a larger debut amid strong revenue momentum—its annualized run rate exceeded $65 billion by July—while absorbing massive capital demands and competing for institutional allocations. xAI's February merger into SpaceX consolidates exposure under the existing ticker, limiting standalone upside. Key swing factors include final pricing for Anthropic, equity market absorption capacity for back-to-back mega-deals, and any shifts in AI sector multiples or regulatory timelines.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
マーケット開始日： Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
音量
$6,008,474終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's completed June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, raising a record $75 billion, anchors current trader sentiment, yet Anthropic's targeted October listing at up to $2 trillion keeps the race tight at 53.5% versus 47.3% implied probability. The closely matched odds reflect uncertainty over whether Anthropic can execute a larger debut amid strong revenue momentum—its annualized run rate exceeded $65 billion by July—while absorbing massive capital demands and competing for institutional allocations. xAI's February merger into SpaceX consolidates exposure under the existing ticker, limiting standalone upside. Key swing factors include final pricing for Anthropic, equity market absorption capacity for back-to-back mega-deals, and any shifts in AI sector multiples or regulatory timelines.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
音量
$6,008,474終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's completed June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, raising a record $75 billion, anchors current trader sentiment, yet Anthropic's targeted October listing at up to $2 trillion keeps the race tight at 53.5% versus 47.3% implied probability. The closely matched odds reflect uncertainty over whether Anthropic can execute a larger debut amid strong revenue momentum—its annualized run rate exceeded $65 billion by July—while absorbing massive capital demands and competing for institutional allocations. xAI's February merger into SpaceX consolidates exposure under the existing ticker, limiting standalone upside. Key swing factors include final pricing for Anthropic, equity market absorption capacity for back-to-back mega-deals, and any shifts in AI sector multiples or regulatory timelines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問