**Trader consensus heavily favors 1,250+ tornadoes for the full 2026 U.S. season at 91% implied probability, driven by an unusually active first eight-plus months.** Through early September, the Storm Prediction Center’s preliminary count reached 1,419 reports, already exceeding the long-term annual average of roughly 1,200–1,300. Elevated activity has been concentrated in the Midwest and Great Lakes, with Illinois shattering state records amid repeated outbreaks in March, April, and June; traditional Tornado Alley states like Texas and Oklahoma have seen below-average counts due to a persistent northern storm track. Model consensus and climatological patterns suggest typical fall and early-winter activity (September–December) will add only modest numbers, keeping the final verified total well above the 1,250 threshold. The main scenarios that could realistically alter this are a sharp downward revision of preliminary reports during final National Weather Service surveys or an exceptionally quiet late-season period, though historical precedent makes either outcome unlikely to pull the total below 1,250.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日1250以上 91%
1150〜1199 4.0%
1200〜1249 3.6%
1100〜1149 3.4%
$83,036 Vol.
$83,036 Vol.
2027/01/09
950未満
<1%
950〜999
<1%
1000〜1049
<1%
1050〜1099
<1%
1100〜1149
3%
1150〜1199
4%
1200〜1249
4%
1250以上
91%
1250以上 91%
1150〜1199 4.0%
1200〜1249 3.6%
1100〜1149 3.4%
$83,036 Vol.
$83,036 Vol.
2027/01/09
950未満
$23,841 Vol.
<1%
950〜999
$3,731 Vol.
<1%
1000〜1049
$3,451 Vol.
<1%
1050〜1099
$9,287 Vol.
<1%
1100〜1149
$3,368 Vol.
3%
1150〜1199
$4,192 Vol.
4%
1200〜1249
$16,027 Vol.
4%
1250以上
$19,139 Vol.
91%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader consensus heavily favors 1,250+ tornadoes for the full 2026 U.S. season at 91% implied probability, driven by an unusually active first eight-plus months.**
Through early September, the Storm Prediction Center’s preliminary count reached 1,419 reports, already exceeding the long-term annual average of roughly 1,200–1,300. Elevated activity has been concentrated in the Midwest and Great Lakes, with Illinois shattering state records amid repeated outbreaks in March, April, and June; traditional Tornado Alley states like Texas and Oklahoma have seen below-average counts due to a persistent northern storm track.
Model consensus and climatological patterns suggest typical fall and early-winter activity (September–December) will add only modest numbers, keeping the final verified total well above the 1,250 threshold. The main scenarios that could realistically alter this are a sharp downward revision of preliminary reports during final National Weather Service surveys or an exceptionally quiet late-season period, though historical precedent makes either outcome unlikely to pull the total below 1,250.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
マーケット開始日： Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
音量
$83,036終了日
2027/01/10マーケット開始日
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader consensus heavily favors 1,250+ tornadoes for the full 2026 U.S. season at 91% implied probability, driven by an unusually active first eight-plus months.**
Through early September, the Storm Prediction Center’s preliminary count reached 1,419 reports, already exceeding the long-term annual average of roughly 1,200–1,300. Elevated activity has been concentrated in the Midwest and Great Lakes, with Illinois shattering state records amid repeated outbreaks in March, April, and June; traditional Tornado Alley states like Texas and Oklahoma have seen below-average counts due to a persistent northern storm track.
Model consensus and climatological patterns suggest typical fall and early-winter activity (September–December) will add only modest numbers, keeping the final verified total well above the 1,250 threshold. The main scenarios that could realistically alter this are a sharp downward revision of preliminary reports during final National Weather Service surveys or an exceptionally quiet late-season period, though historical precedent makes either outcome unlikely to pull the total below 1,250.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
音量
$83,036終了日
2027/01/10マーケット開始日
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors 1,250+ tornadoes for the full 2026 U.S. season at 91% implied probability, driven by an unusually active first eight-plus months.** Through early September, the Storm Prediction Center’s preliminary count reached 1,419 reports, already exceeding the long-term annual average of roughly 1,200–1,300. Elevated activity has been concentrated in the Midwest and Great Lakes, with Illinois shattering state records amid repeated outbreaks in March, April, and June; traditional Tornado Alley states like Texas and Oklahoma have seen below-average counts due to a persistent northern storm track. Model consensus and climatological patterns suggest typical fall and early-winter activity (September–December) will add only modest numbers, keeping the final verified total well above the 1,250 threshold. The main scenarios that could realistically alter this are a sharp downward revision of preliminary reports during final National Weather Service surveys or an exceptionally quiet late-season period, though historical precedent makes either outcome unlikely to pull the total below 1,250.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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