**Elevated spring activity in 2026 has pushed year-to-date U.S. tornado counts well above the long-term annual average of roughly 1,200, supporting the market's strong 90.5% implied probability for a final total of 1250 or more.** NOAA Storm Prediction Center preliminary data through early September already show more than 1,400 reports, driven by multiple significant outbreaks including an active March–April period with over 500 preliminary events in those months alone. Enhanced wind shear and instability across the central and southern Plains and Midwest fueled repeated severe weather setups, consistent with observed shifts in tornado frequency toward the Upper Midwest in recent years. With typical July–September contributions of 200–300 tornadoes and lower activity expected in fall and winter, current trajectories point to an above-average year unless late-season conditions turn markedly quieter than climatology or final National Weather Service verifications produce substantial downward revisions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日1250以上 91%
1150〜1199 4.2%
1200〜1249 4.0%
1100〜1149 3.7%
$83,038 Vol.
$83,038 Vol.
2027/01/09
950未満
<1%
950〜999
<1%
1000〜1049
<1%
1050〜1099
<1%
1100〜1149
4%
1150〜1199
4%
1200〜1249
4%
1250以上
91%
1250以上 91%
1150〜1199 4.2%
1200〜1249 4.0%
1100〜1149 3.7%
$83,038 Vol.
$83,038 Vol.
2027/01/09
950未満
$23,841 Vol.
<1%
950〜999
$3,731 Vol.
<1%
1000〜1049
$3,451 Vol.
<1%
1050〜1099
$9,289 Vol.
<1%
1100〜1149
$3,368 Vol.
4%
1150〜1199
$4,192 Vol.
4%
1200〜1249
$16,027 Vol.
4%
1250以上
$19,139 Vol.
91%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Elevated spring activity in 2026 has pushed year-to-date U.S. tornado counts well above the long-term annual average of roughly 1,200, supporting the market's strong 90.5% implied probability for a final total of 1250 or more.** NOAA Storm Prediction Center preliminary data through early September already show more than 1,400 reports, driven by multiple significant outbreaks including an active March–April period with over 500 preliminary events in those months alone. Enhanced wind shear and instability across the central and southern Plains and Midwest fueled repeated severe weather setups, consistent with observed shifts in tornado frequency toward the Upper Midwest in recent years.
With typical July–September contributions of 200–300 tornadoes and lower activity expected in fall and winter, current trajectories point to an above-average year unless late-season conditions turn markedly quieter than climatology or final National Weather Service verifications produce substantial downward revisions.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
マーケット開始日： Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
音量
$83,038終了日
2027/01/10マーケット開始日
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Elevated spring activity in 2026 has pushed year-to-date U.S. tornado counts well above the long-term annual average of roughly 1,200, supporting the market's strong 90.5% implied probability for a final total of 1250 or more.** NOAA Storm Prediction Center preliminary data through early September already show more than 1,400 reports, driven by multiple significant outbreaks including an active March–April period with over 500 preliminary events in those months alone. Enhanced wind shear and instability across the central and southern Plains and Midwest fueled repeated severe weather setups, consistent with observed shifts in tornado frequency toward the Upper Midwest in recent years.
With typical July–September contributions of 200–300 tornadoes and lower activity expected in fall and winter, current trajectories point to an above-average year unless late-season conditions turn markedly quieter than climatology or final National Weather Service verifications produce substantial downward revisions.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
音量
$83,038終了日
2027/01/10マーケット開始日
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated spring activity in 2026 has pushed year-to-date U.S. tornado counts well above the long-term annual average of roughly 1,200, supporting the market's strong 90.5% implied probability for a final total of 1250 or more.** NOAA Storm Prediction Center preliminary data through early September already show more than 1,400 reports, driven by multiple significant outbreaks including an active March–April period with over 500 preliminary events in those months alone. Enhanced wind shear and instability across the central and southern Plains and Midwest fueled repeated severe weather setups, consistent with observed shifts in tornado frequency toward the Upper Midwest in recent years. With typical July–September contributions of 200–300 tornadoes and lower activity expected in fall and winter, current trajectories point to an above-average year unless late-season conditions turn markedly quieter than climatology or final National Weather Service verifications produce substantial downward revisions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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