Severe drought and successive heat waves across Central and Eastern Europe have driven the Danube to record lows as of mid-August 2026, with Budapest gauges hitting historic minima that disrupt commercial navigation, hydropower output, and tourism. Satellite imagery confirms sharply reduced flows compared with prior years, and forecasters note little near-term relief from additional dry conditions. Seasonal patterns indicate that increased autumn rainfall typically replenishes Central European river basins, supporting trader consensus around an October rebound as the most probable window. Earlier September recovery remains possible if frontal systems arrive sooner, while probabilities decline sharply for sustained shortfalls beyond early fall given historical base rates for post-summer recharge.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年10月1日～31日 44%
2026年9月15日～30日 29%
2026年9月1日～14日 15%
2026年9月1日より前 10%
新規
新規
2026/09/01
2026年9月1日より前
10%
2026年9月1日～14日
15%
2026年9月15日～30日
29%
2026年10月1日～31日
44%
2026年11月1日までに戻らない
4%
2026年10月1日～31日 44%
2026年9月15日～30日 29%
2026年9月1日～14日 15%
2026年9月1日より前 10%
新規
新規
2026/09/01
2026年9月1日より前
$516 Vol.
10%
2026年9月1日～14日
$987 Vol.
15%
2026年9月15日～30日
$1,175 Vol.
29%
2026年10月1日～31日
$697 Vol.
44%
2026年11月1日までに戻らない
$390 Vol.
4%
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Severe drought and successive heat waves across Central and Eastern Europe have driven the Danube to record lows as of mid-August 2026, with Budapest gauges hitting historic minima that disrupt commercial navigation, hydropower output, and tourism. Satellite imagery confirms sharply reduced flows compared with prior years, and forecasters note little near-term relief from additional dry conditions. Seasonal patterns indicate that increased autumn rainfall typically replenishes Central European river basins, supporting trader consensus around an October rebound as the most probable window. Earlier September recovery remains possible if frontal systems arrive sooner, while probabilities decline sharply for sustained shortfalls beyond early fall given historical base rates for post-summer recharge.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ET
音量
$3,764終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETThis market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Severe drought and successive heat waves across Central and Eastern Europe have driven the Danube to record lows as of mid-August 2026, with Budapest gauges hitting historic minima that disrupt commercial navigation, hydropower output, and tourism. Satellite imagery confirms sharply reduced flows compared with prior years, and forecasters note little near-term relief from additional dry conditions. Seasonal patterns indicate that increased autumn rainfall typically replenishes Central European river basins, supporting trader consensus around an October rebound as the most probable window. Earlier September recovery remains possible if frontal systems arrive sooner, while probabilities decline sharply for sustained shortfalls beyond early fall given historical base rates for post-summer recharge.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$3,764終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETSevere drought and successive heat waves across Central and Eastern Europe have driven the Danube to record lows as of mid-August 2026, with Budapest gauges hitting historic minima that disrupt commercial navigation, hydropower output, and tourism. Satellite imagery confirms sharply reduced flows compared with prior years, and forecasters note little near-term relief from additional dry conditions. Seasonal patterns indicate that increased autumn rainfall typically replenishes Central European river basins, supporting trader consensus around an October rebound as the most probable window. Earlier September recovery remains possible if frontal systems arrive sooner, while probabilities decline sharply for sustained shortfalls beyond early fall given historical base rates for post-summer recharge.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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