A developing strong El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in mid-July 2026 and models projecting further intensification toward 2°C or higher by late summer, serves as the dominant driver elevating trader expectations for August global mean surface temperatures. This Pacific warming, superimposed on a long-term anthropogenic trend near 1.4–1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, favors anomalies in the upper bins around 1.2–1.3°C or above, consistent with June 2026 observations of 1.49°C. Differentiation among closely matched outcomes hinges on the precise timing of El Niño peak influence, potential modulation by positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, and short-term variability in Arctic and land-surface feedbacks. Upcoming August data releases from NOAA and Berkeley Earth will clarify resolution thresholds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年8月温度上昇（º C ）
2026年8月温度上昇（º C ）
<1.10ºC 37%
1.10〜1.14ºC 37%
1.20–1.24ºC 37%
1.25–1.29ºC 37%
新規
新規
2026/08/01
<1.10ºC
37%
1.10〜1.14ºC
37%
1.15〜1.19℃
36%
1.20–1.24ºC
37%
1.25–1.29ºC
37%
>1.29℃
34%
<1.10ºC 37%
1.10〜1.14ºC 37%
1.20–1.24ºC 37%
1.25–1.29ºC 37%
新規
新規
2026/08/01
<1.10ºC
$0 Vol.
37%
1.10〜1.14ºC
$0 Vol.
37%
1.15〜1.19℃
$0 Vol.
36%
1.20–1.24ºC
$0 Vol.
37%
1.25–1.29ºC
$0 Vol.
37%
>1.29℃
$0 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing strong El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in mid-July 2026 and models projecting further intensification toward 2°C or higher by late summer, serves as the dominant driver elevating trader expectations for August global mean surface temperatures. This Pacific warming, superimposed on a long-term anthropogenic trend near 1.4–1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, favors anomalies in the upper bins around 1.2–1.3°C or above, consistent with June 2026 observations of 1.49°C. Differentiation among closely matched outcomes hinges on the precise timing of El Niño peak influence, potential modulation by positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, and short-term variability in Arctic and land-surface feedbacks. Upcoming August data releases from NOAA and Berkeley Earth will clarify resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing strong El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in mid-July 2026 and models projecting further intensification toward 2°C or higher by late summer, serves as the dominant driver elevating trader expectations for August global mean surface temperatures. This Pacific warming, superimposed on a long-term anthropogenic trend near 1.4–1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, favors anomalies in the upper bins around 1.2–1.3°C or above, consistent with June 2026 observations of 1.49°C. Differentiation among closely matched outcomes hinges on the precise timing of El Niño peak influence, potential modulation by positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, and short-term variability in Arctic and land-surface feedbacks. Upcoming August data releases from NOAA and Berkeley Earth will clarify resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A developing strong El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in mid-July 2026 and models projecting further intensification toward 2°C or higher by late summer, serves as the dominant driver elevating trader expectations for August global mean surface temperatures. This Pacific warming, superimposed on a long-term anthropogenic trend near 1.4–1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, favors anomalies in the upper bins around 1.2–1.3°C or above, consistent with June 2026 observations of 1.49°C. Differentiation among closely matched outcomes hinges on the precise timing of El Niño peak influence, potential modulation by positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, and short-term variability in Arctic and land-surface feedbacks. Upcoming August data releases from NOAA and Berkeley Earth will clarify resolution thresholds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問