USGS data establish that no known fault is long enough to produce a magnitude 10.0 earthquake, as such an event would require rupture spanning much of the planet’s circumference. The moment magnitude scale links energy release directly to fault length and slip, and the largest reliably recorded event reached only 9.5 in Chile in 1960. Global seismic catalogs through 2026 show no events exceeding 9.2, confirming the physical limits imposed by plate tectonics. Trader consensus at 99.2% for “No” before 2027 aligns with this established upper bound. Only an unforeseen revision in magnitude scaling or discovery of previously unknown megathrust structures could alter the outlook, though neither is supported by current monitoring networks.