The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes on the moment magnitude scale underpins the 94.7% market-implied odds against occurrence before 2027. USGS records show the most recent event was the 2011 Tōhoku quake, with prior great earthquakes spaced roughly 10–50 years apart globally; no M9+ events have registered in 2026 amid routine monitoring of subduction zones and fault systems. Current seismic catalogs indicate typical activity levels without anomalous foreshock sequences or strain accumulation signals that would elevate near-term risk. While a sudden full-margin rupture in regions like Cascadia or the Aleutians remains theoretically possible, historical frequency and short remaining time window strongly support trader consensus on “No,” with new USGS updates or unexpected seismic swarms as the main variables that could shift sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
$279,510 Vol.
$279,510 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
5% 確率
$279,510 Vol.
$279,510 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes on the moment magnitude scale underpins the 94.7% market-implied odds against occurrence before 2027. USGS records show the most recent event was the 2011 Tōhoku quake, with prior great earthquakes spaced roughly 10–50 years apart globally; no M9+ events have registered in 2026 amid routine monitoring of subduction zones and fault systems. Current seismic catalogs indicate typical activity levels without anomalous foreshock sequences or strain accumulation signals that would elevate near-term risk. While a sudden full-margin rupture in regions like Cascadia or the Aleutians remains theoretically possible, historical frequency and short remaining time window strongly support trader consensus on “No,” with new USGS updates or unexpected seismic swarms as the main variables that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
マーケット開始日： Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
音量
$279,510終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes on the moment magnitude scale underpins the 94.7% market-implied odds against occurrence before 2027. USGS records show the most recent event was the 2011 Tōhoku quake, with prior great earthquakes spaced roughly 10–50 years apart globally; no M9+ events have registered in 2026 amid routine monitoring of subduction zones and fault systems. Current seismic catalogs indicate typical activity levels without anomalous foreshock sequences or strain accumulation signals that would elevate near-term risk. While a sudden full-margin rupture in regions like Cascadia or the Aleutians remains theoretically possible, historical frequency and short remaining time window strongly support trader consensus on “No,” with new USGS updates or unexpected seismic swarms as the main variables that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
音量
$279,510終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes on the moment magnitude scale underpins the 94.7% market-implied odds against occurrence before 2027. USGS records show the most recent event was the 2011 Tōhoku quake, with prior great earthquakes spaced roughly 10–50 years apart globally; no M9+ events have registered in 2026 amid routine monitoring of subduction zones and fault systems. Current seismic catalogs indicate typical activity levels without anomalous foreshock sequences or strain accumulation signals that would elevate near-term risk. While a sudden full-margin rupture in regions like Cascadia or the Aleutians remains theoretically possible, historical frequency and short remaining time window strongly support trader consensus on “No,” with new USGS updates or unexpected seismic swarms as the main variables that could shift sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問