**The Climate Clock displays a remaining carbon budget countdown to 1.5°C, currently showing roughly 2 years and 336 days (pointing toward late 2029) based on MCC Berlin estimates derived from IPCC AR6 carbon budget figures and ongoing emissions trends.** Traders assign a 61.5% implied probability that this displayed deadline will not shift by December 31, 2026, because major revisions to the underlying budget typically occur only with new IPCC assessments or substantial updates to global emissions inventories and sink efficiencies. Annual Global Carbon Budget reports show emissions continuing to rise modestly (projected +1.1% in 2025 to ~38 GtCO₂), while recent observational data confirm accelerating warming trends without yet triggering a clock reset. The clock’s methodology assumes steady annual emissions around 42 GtCO₂; modest changes in measured uptake or short-term variability rarely move the displayed date enough to register as a formal change before the next major scientific reassessment. Upcoming 2026 data releases on emissions and any interim budget refinements could influence sentiment, but historical update patterns indicate low likelihood of a deadline-altering revision within the narrow remaining window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日39% 確率
新規
新規
2027/01/01
39% 確率
新規
新規
2027/01/01
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.**The Climate Clock displays a remaining carbon budget countdown to 1.5°C, currently showing roughly 2 years and 336 days (pointing toward late 2029) based on MCC Berlin estimates derived from IPCC AR6 carbon budget figures and ongoing emissions trends.**
Traders assign a 61.5% implied probability that this displayed deadline will not shift by December 31, 2026, because major revisions to the underlying budget typically occur only with new IPCC assessments or substantial updates to global emissions inventories and sink efficiencies. Annual Global Carbon Budget reports show emissions continuing to rise modestly (projected +1.1% in 2025 to ~38 GtCO₂), while recent observational data confirm accelerating warming trends without yet triggering a clock reset. The clock’s methodology assumes steady annual emissions around 42 GtCO₂; modest changes in measured uptake or short-term variability rarely move the displayed date enough to register as a formal change before the next major scientific reassessment.
Upcoming 2026 data releases on emissions and any interim budget refinements could influence sentiment, but historical update patterns indicate low likelihood of a deadline-altering revision within the narrow remaining window.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
マーケット開始日： Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
音量
$2,043終了日
2029/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.**The Climate Clock displays a remaining carbon budget countdown to 1.5°C, currently showing roughly 2 years and 336 days (pointing toward late 2029) based on MCC Berlin estimates derived from IPCC AR6 carbon budget figures and ongoing emissions trends.**
Traders assign a 61.5% implied probability that this displayed deadline will not shift by December 31, 2026, because major revisions to the underlying budget typically occur only with new IPCC assessments or substantial updates to global emissions inventories and sink efficiencies. Annual Global Carbon Budget reports show emissions continuing to rise modestly (projected +1.1% in 2025 to ~38 GtCO₂), while recent observational data confirm accelerating warming trends without yet triggering a clock reset. The clock’s methodology assumes steady annual emissions around 42 GtCO₂; modest changes in measured uptake or short-term variability rarely move the displayed date enough to register as a formal change before the next major scientific reassessment.
Upcoming 2026 data releases on emissions and any interim budget refinements could influence sentiment, but historical update patterns indicate low likelihood of a deadline-altering revision within the narrow remaining window.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
音量
$2,043終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The Climate Clock displays a remaining carbon budget countdown to 1.5°C, currently showing roughly 2 years and 336 days (pointing toward late 2029) based on MCC Berlin estimates derived from IPCC AR6 carbon budget figures and ongoing emissions trends.** Traders assign a 61.5% implied probability that this displayed deadline will not shift by December 31, 2026, because major revisions to the underlying budget typically occur only with new IPCC assessments or substantial updates to global emissions inventories and sink efficiencies. Annual Global Carbon Budget reports show emissions continuing to rise modestly (projected +1.1% in 2025 to ~38 GtCO₂), while recent observational data confirm accelerating warming trends without yet triggering a clock reset. The clock’s methodology assumes steady annual emissions around 42 GtCO₂; modest changes in measured uptake or short-term variability rarely move the displayed date enough to register as a formal change before the next major scientific reassessment. Upcoming 2026 data releases on emissions and any interim budget refinements could influence sentiment, but historical update patterns indicate low likelihood of a deadline-altering revision within the narrow remaining window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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