**No major VEI ≥6 eruption has occurred in 2026, and monitoring data through mid-September show no systems with the sustained magma accumulation or unrest patterns needed for such an event.** Ongoing activity at volcanoes like Anak Krakatau, Semeru, Kīlauea, and others remains at lower VEI levels, with ash plumes and lava flows typical of VEI 2–4. Global Volcanism Program records confirm dozens of eruptions this year, none approaching the 10+ km³ tephra threshold or stratospheric SO₂ injection of a VEI 6. Historical frequency—roughly one VEI 6+ per 30–50 years since the 19th century—supports the 92% market-implied odds for “No.” A realistic challenge would require rapid escalation at a currently quiet large-caldera system, but official agencies report no such precursors as of early September.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
8% 確率
$146,525 Vol.
$146,525 Vol.
2027/03/30
はい
8% 確率
$146,525 Vol.
$146,525 Vol.
2027/03/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**No major VEI ≥6 eruption has occurred in 2026, and monitoring data through mid-September show no systems with the sustained magma accumulation or unrest patterns needed for such an event.** Ongoing activity at volcanoes like Anak Krakatau, Semeru, Kīlauea, and others remains at lower VEI levels, with ash plumes and lava flows typical of VEI 2–4. Global Volcanism Program records confirm dozens of eruptions this year, none approaching the 10+ km³ tephra threshold or stratospheric SO₂ injection of a VEI 6. Historical frequency—roughly one VEI 6+ per 30–50 years since the 19th century—supports the 92% market-implied odds for “No.” A realistic challenge would require rapid escalation at a currently quiet large-caldera system, but official agencies report no such precursors as of early September.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
音量
$146,525終了日
2027/03/31マーケット開始日
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**No major VEI ≥6 eruption has occurred in 2026, and monitoring data through mid-September show no systems with the sustained magma accumulation or unrest patterns needed for such an event.** Ongoing activity at volcanoes like Anak Krakatau, Semeru, Kīlauea, and others remains at lower VEI levels, with ash plumes and lava flows typical of VEI 2–4. Global Volcanism Program records confirm dozens of eruptions this year, none approaching the 10+ km³ tephra threshold or stratospheric SO₂ injection of a VEI 6. Historical frequency—roughly one VEI 6+ per 30–50 years since the 19th century—supports the 92% market-implied odds for “No.” A realistic challenge would require rapid escalation at a currently quiet large-caldera system, but official agencies report no such precursors as of early September.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
音量
$146,525終了日
2027/03/31マーケット開始日
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**No major VEI ≥6 eruption has occurred in 2026, and monitoring data through mid-September show no systems with the sustained magma accumulation or unrest patterns needed for such an event.** Ongoing activity at volcanoes like Anak Krakatau, Semeru, Kīlauea, and others remains at lower VEI levels, with ash plumes and lava flows typical of VEI 2–4. Global Volcanism Program records confirm dozens of eruptions this year, none approaching the 10+ km³ tephra threshold or stratospheric SO₂ injection of a VEI 6. Historical frequency—roughly one VEI 6+ per 30–50 years since the 19th century—supports the 92% market-implied odds for “No.” A realistic challenge would require rapid escalation at a currently quiet large-caldera system, but official agencies report no such precursors as of early September.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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