No major VEI ≥6 eruption has occurred through mid-June 2026, aligning with the 90.5% market-implied probability of none by year-end. Global recurrence intervals for such colossal events—defined by roughly 10 km³ or more of tephra and plumes exceeding 25 km—typically span 50–100 years, with the most recent example being Pinatubo in 1991. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring reports confirm only background seismicity and minor activity at U.S. and global volcanoes, including ongoing but low-VEI effusive episodes at Kīlauea. Traders weigh this low baseline frequency heavily. A rapid escalation at an unmonitored caldera or submarine system remains possible, though current data show no precursors suggesting an imminent shift.