A developing super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.0 °C and models projecting further strengthening through fall 2026, supplies the main catalyst elevating odds for a top-three September ranking. This event overlays long-term anthropogenic warming, releasing stored Pacific heat into the atmosphere with a short lag that intensifies surface temperatures by late summer. Differentiation among first-, second-, and third-warmest outcomes hinges on the precise September anomaly magnitude relative to 2023–2025 records, modulated by model spread in peak timing, Atlantic and Indian Ocean patterns, and internal variability. Official agencies including NOAA and WMO note high confidence in widespread above-normal temperatures for August–October, yet the exact placement within the recent warmest tier remains sensitive to the next few weeks of observational data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年9月史上1番目、2番目、3番目に暑い？
2026年9月史上1番目、2番目、3番目に暑い？
史上1位の暑さ 49%
2番目に暑い 49%
3番目に暑い 49%
4番目またはそれ以下 49%
新規
新規
2026/09/30
史上1位の暑さ
49%
2番目に暑い
49%
3番目に暑い
49%
4番目またはそれ以下
49%
史上1位の暑さ 49%
2番目に暑い 49%
3番目に暑い 49%
4番目またはそれ以下 49%
新規
新規
2026/09/30
史上1位の暑さ
$0 Vol.
49%
2番目に暑い
$0 Vol.
49%
3番目に暑い
$0 Vol.
49%
4番目またはそれ以下
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A developing super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.0 °C and models projecting further strengthening through fall 2026, supplies the main catalyst elevating odds for a top-three September ranking. This event overlays long-term anthropogenic warming, releasing stored Pacific heat into the atmosphere with a short lag that intensifies surface temperatures by late summer. Differentiation among first-, second-, and third-warmest outcomes hinges on the precise September anomaly magnitude relative to 2023–2025 records, modulated by model spread in peak timing, Atlantic and Indian Ocean patterns, and internal variability. Official agencies including NOAA and WMO note high confidence in widespread above-normal temperatures for August–October, yet the exact placement within the recent warmest tier remains sensitive to the next few weeks of observational data.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
マーケット開始日： Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A developing super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.0 °C and models projecting further strengthening through fall 2026, supplies the main catalyst elevating odds for a top-three September ranking. This event overlays long-term anthropogenic warming, releasing stored Pacific heat into the atmosphere with a short lag that intensifies surface temperatures by late summer. Differentiation among first-, second-, and third-warmest outcomes hinges on the precise September anomaly magnitude relative to 2023–2025 records, modulated by model spread in peak timing, Atlantic and Indian Ocean patterns, and internal variability. Official agencies including NOAA and WMO note high confidence in widespread above-normal temperatures for August–October, yet the exact placement within the recent warmest tier remains sensitive to the next few weeks of observational data.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...A developing super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.0 °C and models projecting further strengthening through fall 2026, supplies the main catalyst elevating odds for a top-three September ranking. This event overlays long-term anthropogenic warming, releasing stored Pacific heat into the atmosphere with a short lag that intensifies surface temperatures by late summer. Differentiation among first-, second-, and third-warmest outcomes hinges on the precise September anomaly magnitude relative to 2023–2025 records, modulated by model spread in peak timing, Atlantic and Indian Ocean patterns, and internal variability. Official agencies including NOAA and WMO note high confidence in widespread above-normal temperatures for August–October, yet the exact placement within the recent warmest tier remains sensitive to the next few weeks of observational data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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