Record-low spring Arctic sea ice extent, including a near-record winter maximum and June 2026 values ranking among the lowest on record at around 10.7–11.2 million sq km, has positioned the market-implied odds heavily toward a September minimum below 4 million sq km. Persistent above-average temperatures in key regions like the Barents and Labrador Seas, combined with the long-term 12% per decade decline trend, have accelerated early melt and reduced the ice volume available for summer survival. While atmospheric patterns over the coming months remain the dominant uncertainty—potentially favoring rapid ice loss or temporary retention—current observational data from NSIDC and JAXA reinforce trader consensus around historically low outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日この夏、北極海の氷の範囲を最小限に抑えますか？
この夏、北極海の氷の範囲を最小限に抑えますか？
4.0～4.2百万平方キロメートル 28.7%
4.2～4.4百万平方キロメートル 17.4%
400万平方キロメートル未満 15%
4.4～4.6百万平方キロメートル 8.7%
$60,725 Vol.
$60,725 Vol.
2026/10/01
400万平方キロメートル未満
15%
4.0～4.2百万平方キロメートル
29%
4.2～4.4百万平方キロメートル
17%
4.4～4.6百万平方キロメートル
9%
460万〜480万平方キロメートル
5%
480万～500万平方キロメートル
5%
500万平方キロメートル超
3%
4.0～4.2百万平方キロメートル 28.7%
4.2～4.4百万平方キロメートル 17.4%
400万平方キロメートル未満 15%
4.4～4.6百万平方キロメートル 8.7%
$60,725 Vol.
$60,725 Vol.
2026/10/01
400万平方キロメートル未満
$28,741 Vol.
15%
4.0～4.2百万平方キロメートル
$5,886 Vol.
29%
4.2～4.4百万平方キロメートル
$2,449 Vol.
17%
4.4～4.6百万平方キロメートル
$2,374 Vol.
9%
460万〜480万平方キロメートル
$4,367 Vol.
5%
480万～500万平方キロメートル
$2,662 Vol.
5%
500万平方キロメートル超
$14,246 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low spring Arctic sea ice extent, including a near-record winter maximum and June 2026 values ranking among the lowest on record at around 10.7–11.2 million sq km, has positioned the market-implied odds heavily toward a September minimum below 4 million sq km. Persistent above-average temperatures in key regions like the Barents and Labrador Seas, combined with the long-term 12% per decade decline trend, have accelerated early melt and reduced the ice volume available for summer survival. While atmospheric patterns over the coming months remain the dominant uncertainty—potentially favoring rapid ice loss or temporary retention—current observational data from NSIDC and JAXA reinforce trader consensus around historically low outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
マーケット開始日： Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
音量
$60,725終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low spring Arctic sea ice extent, including a near-record winter maximum and June 2026 values ranking among the lowest on record at around 10.7–11.2 million sq km, has positioned the market-implied odds heavily toward a September minimum below 4 million sq km. Persistent above-average temperatures in key regions like the Barents and Labrador Seas, combined with the long-term 12% per decade decline trend, have accelerated early melt and reduced the ice volume available for summer survival. While atmospheric patterns over the coming months remain the dominant uncertainty—potentially favoring rapid ice loss or temporary retention—current observational data from NSIDC and JAXA reinforce trader consensus around historically low outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
音量
$60,725終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low spring Arctic sea ice extent, including a near-record winter maximum and June 2026 values ranking among the lowest on record at around 10.7–11.2 million sq km, has positioned the market-implied odds heavily toward a September minimum below 4 million sq km. Persistent above-average temperatures in key regions like the Barents and Labrador Seas, combined with the long-term 12% per decade decline trend, have accelerated early melt and reduced the ice volume available for summer survival. While atmospheric patterns over the coming months remain the dominant uncertainty—potentially favoring rapid ice loss or temporary retention—current observational data from NSIDC and JAXA reinforce trader consensus around historically low outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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