Recent NSIDC analyses show Arctic sea ice extent averaging 5.56 million square kilometers in August 2026—the seventh lowest on record—after early-summer melt tracked toward 2012 levels before cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures and persistent low-pressure systems slowed losses. These conditions, contrasting with warmer peripheral seas earlier in the season, align current trajectories with the post-2010 average range and the 2025 minimum of 4.60 million square kilometers. Market-implied probabilities heavily favor the 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer bin as the September minimum nears mid-month, reflecting trader consensus on limited further decline absent major late-season weather shifts. Historical baselines confirm this outcome would continue the long-term downward trend without setting a new record low.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日この夏、北極海の氷の範囲を最小限に抑えますか？
この夏、北極海の氷の範囲を最小限に抑えますか？
4.4～4.6百万平方キロメートル 78.3%
4.2～4.4百万平方キロメートル 18.9%
400万平方キロメートル未満 1.5%
4.0～4.2百万平方キロメートル 1.1%
$78,115 Vol.
$78,115 Vol.
2026/09/30
400万平方キロメートル未満
2%
4.0～4.2百万平方キロメートル
1%
4.2～4.4百万平方キロメートル
19%
4.4～4.6百万平方キロメートル
73%
460万〜480万平方キロメートル
1%
480万～500万平方キロメートル
1%
500万平方キロメートル超
<1%
4.4～4.6百万平方キロメートル 78.3%
4.2～4.4百万平方キロメートル 18.9%
400万平方キロメートル未満 1.5%
4.0～4.2百万平方キロメートル 1.1%
$78,115 Vol.
$78,115 Vol.
2026/09/30
400万平方キロメートル未満
$33,489 Vol.
2%
4.0～4.2百万平方キロメートル
$7,402 Vol.
1%
4.2～4.4百万平方キロメートル
$3,682 Vol.
19%
4.4～4.6百万平方キロメートル
$4,039 Vol.
73%
460万〜480万平方キロメートル
$10,207 Vol.
1%
480万～500万平方キロメートル
$4,284 Vol.
1%
500万平方キロメートル超
$15,013 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent NSIDC analyses show Arctic sea ice extent averaging 5.56 million square kilometers in August 2026—the seventh lowest on record—after early-summer melt tracked toward 2012 levels before cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures and persistent low-pressure systems slowed losses. These conditions, contrasting with warmer peripheral seas earlier in the season, align current trajectories with the post-2010 average range and the 2025 minimum of 4.60 million square kilometers. Market-implied probabilities heavily favor the 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer bin as the September minimum nears mid-month, reflecting trader consensus on limited further decline absent major late-season weather shifts. Historical baselines confirm this outcome would continue the long-term downward trend without setting a new record low.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
マーケット開始日： Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
音量
$78,115終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent NSIDC analyses show Arctic sea ice extent averaging 5.56 million square kilometers in August 2026—the seventh lowest on record—after early-summer melt tracked toward 2012 levels before cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures and persistent low-pressure systems slowed losses. These conditions, contrasting with warmer peripheral seas earlier in the season, align current trajectories with the post-2010 average range and the 2025 minimum of 4.60 million square kilometers. Market-implied probabilities heavily favor the 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer bin as the September minimum nears mid-month, reflecting trader consensus on limited further decline absent major late-season weather shifts. Historical baselines confirm this outcome would continue the long-term downward trend without setting a new record low.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
音量
$78,115終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Recent NSIDC analyses show Arctic sea ice extent averaging 5.56 million square kilometers in August 2026—the seventh lowest on record—after early-summer melt tracked toward 2012 levels before cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures and persistent low-pressure systems slowed losses. These conditions, contrasting with warmer peripheral seas earlier in the season, align current trajectories with the post-2010 average range and the 2025 minimum of 4.60 million square kilometers. Market-implied probabilities heavily favor the 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer bin as the September minimum nears mid-month, reflecting trader consensus on limited further decline absent major late-season weather shifts. Historical baselines confirm this outcome would continue the long-term downward trend without setting a new record low.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
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