A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies recently reaching +1.8 to +2.6°C and forecasts indicating a very strong or historic peak by late 2026, is the dominant driver pushing September global mean surface temperatures higher. Multi-model ensembles from NOAA, WMO, and others project widespread above-normal land and ocean temperatures, reinforced by a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the underlying long-term warming trend. Market-implied odds clustered near 1.30–1.49°C reflect uncertainty in the precise monthly anomaly, driven by variations in El Niño intensity, atmospheric response timing, and short-term variability such as cloud feedbacks or polar amplification. Official seasonal outlooks emphasize enhanced probabilities for warmth across most regions, with the next CPC ENSO discussion and updated model runs as key near-term data points.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年9月温度上昇（º C ）
2026年9月温度上昇（º C ）
1.30ºC未満 50%
1.30〜1.34℃ 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40～1.44ºC 50%
新規
新規
2026/10/09
1.30ºC未満
50%
1.30〜1.34℃
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
50%
1.40～1.44ºC
50%
1.45〜1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC
50%
1.30ºC未満 50%
1.30〜1.34℃ 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40～1.44ºC 50%
新規
新規
2026/10/09
1.30ºC未満
$0 Vol.
50%
1.30〜1.34℃
$0 Vol.
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.40～1.44ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.45〜1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
>1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies recently reaching +1.8 to +2.6°C and forecasts indicating a very strong or historic peak by late 2026, is the dominant driver pushing September global mean surface temperatures higher. Multi-model ensembles from NOAA, WMO, and others project widespread above-normal land and ocean temperatures, reinforced by a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the underlying long-term warming trend. Market-implied odds clustered near 1.30–1.49°C reflect uncertainty in the precise monthly anomaly, driven by variations in El Niño intensity, atmospheric response timing, and short-term variability such as cloud feedbacks or polar amplification. Official seasonal outlooks emphasize enhanced probabilities for warmth across most regions, with the next CPC ENSO discussion and updated model runs as key near-term data points.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
マーケット開始日： Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/10マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies recently reaching +1.8 to +2.6°C and forecasts indicating a very strong or historic peak by late 2026, is the dominant driver pushing September global mean surface temperatures higher. Multi-model ensembles from NOAA, WMO, and others project widespread above-normal land and ocean temperatures, reinforced by a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the underlying long-term warming trend. Market-implied odds clustered near 1.30–1.49°C reflect uncertainty in the precise monthly anomaly, driven by variations in El Niño intensity, atmospheric response timing, and short-term variability such as cloud feedbacks or polar amplification. Official seasonal outlooks emphasize enhanced probabilities for warmth across most regions, with the next CPC ENSO discussion and updated model runs as key near-term data points.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/10マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETA strengthening El Niño event, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies recently reaching +1.8 to +2.6°C and forecasts indicating a very strong or historic peak by late 2026, is the dominant driver pushing September global mean surface temperatures higher. Multi-model ensembles from NOAA, WMO, and others project widespread above-normal land and ocean temperatures, reinforced by a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the underlying long-term warming trend. Market-implied odds clustered near 1.30–1.49°C reflect uncertainty in the precise monthly anomaly, driven by variations in El Niño intensity, atmospheric response timing, and short-term variability such as cloud feedbacks or polar amplification. Official seasonal outlooks emphasize enhanced probabilities for warmth across most regions, with the next CPC ENSO discussion and updated model runs as key near-term data points.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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