Trader consensus on the "Natural Disaster in 2026?" market favors "No" at roughly 76% because the resolution criteria require one of four rare extremes: a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. Through mid-June 2026, none of these thresholds have been crossed despite ongoing M7+ seismic events tracked by the USGS, typical seasonal wildfires and floods, and routine volcanic monitoring by the Smithsonian. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have limited rapid hurricane intensification in the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Historical baselines show these high-end events occur infrequently, supporting the current odds unless new data from NOAA or USGS monitoring shifts the outlook in the remaining months.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$223,389 Vol.
$223,389 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$223,389 Vol.
$223,389 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on the "Natural Disaster in 2026?" market favors "No" at roughly 76% because the resolution criteria require one of four rare extremes: a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. Through mid-June 2026, none of these thresholds have been crossed despite ongoing M7+ seismic events tracked by the USGS, typical seasonal wildfires and floods, and routine volcanic monitoring by the Smithsonian. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have limited rapid hurricane intensification in the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Historical baselines show these high-end events occur infrequently, supporting the current odds unless new data from NOAA or USGS monitoring shifts the outlook in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
音量
$223,389終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on the "Natural Disaster in 2026?" market favors "No" at roughly 76% because the resolution criteria require one of four rare extremes: a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. Through mid-June 2026, none of these thresholds have been crossed despite ongoing M7+ seismic events tracked by the USGS, typical seasonal wildfires and floods, and routine volcanic monitoring by the Smithsonian. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have limited rapid hurricane intensification in the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Historical baselines show these high-end events occur infrequently, supporting the current odds unless new data from NOAA or USGS monitoring shifts the outlook in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
音量
$223,389終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on the "Natural Disaster in 2026?" market favors "No" at roughly 76% because the resolution criteria require one of four rare extremes: a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. Through mid-June 2026, none of these thresholds have been crossed despite ongoing M7+ seismic events tracked by the USGS, typical seasonal wildfires and floods, and routine volcanic monitoring by the Smithsonian. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have limited rapid hurricane intensification in the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Historical baselines show these high-end events occur infrequently, supporting the current odds unless new data from NOAA or USGS monitoring shifts the outlook in the remaining months.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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