Recent NOAA forecasts project a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only an 8–14 named storms and 1–3 major hurricanes expected, lowering the odds of any extreme tropical system qualifying as a market-resolving natural disaster. USGS seismic data continue to show typical background activity without elevated signals for magnitude 9+ events, while global volcanic observatories report no VEI 6+ systems approaching eruption thresholds. These official monitoring trends, alongside the historical rarity of such high-magnitude occurrences in any single year, underpin the market-implied 74.5% probability for “No.” Updated seasonal outlooks and ongoing agency briefings through summer will provide further clarity on remaining risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$221,593 Vol.
$221,593 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$221,593 Vol.
$221,593 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Recent NOAA forecasts project a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only an 8–14 named storms and 1–3 major hurricanes expected, lowering the odds of any extreme tropical system qualifying as a market-resolving natural disaster. USGS seismic data continue to show typical background activity without elevated signals for magnitude 9+ events, while global volcanic observatories report no VEI 6+ systems approaching eruption thresholds. These official monitoring trends, alongside the historical rarity of such high-magnitude occurrences in any single year, underpin the market-implied 74.5% probability for “No.” Updated seasonal outlooks and ongoing agency briefings through summer will provide further clarity on remaining risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
音量
$221,593終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Recent NOAA forecasts project a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only an 8–14 named storms and 1–3 major hurricanes expected, lowering the odds of any extreme tropical system qualifying as a market-resolving natural disaster. USGS seismic data continue to show typical background activity without elevated signals for magnitude 9+ events, while global volcanic observatories report no VEI 6+ systems approaching eruption thresholds. These official monitoring trends, alongside the historical rarity of such high-magnitude occurrences in any single year, underpin the market-implied 74.5% probability for “No.” Updated seasonal outlooks and ongoing agency briefings through summer will provide further clarity on remaining risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
音量
$221,593終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent NOAA forecasts project a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only an 8–14 named storms and 1–3 major hurricanes expected, lowering the odds of any extreme tropical system qualifying as a market-resolving natural disaster. USGS seismic data continue to show typical background activity without elevated signals for magnitude 9+ events, while global volcanic observatories report no VEI 6+ systems approaching eruption thresholds. These official monitoring trends, alongside the historical rarity of such high-magnitude occurrences in any single year, underpin the market-implied 74.5% probability for “No.” Updated seasonal outlooks and ongoing agency briefings through summer will provide further clarity on remaining risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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