No at 77% reflects the low historical frequency of the market’s strict thresholds—Category 5 U.S. landfalls, VEI-6+ eruptions, 8.5+ earthquakes, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strikes—none of which have occurred in 2026 to date. National Hurricane Center data show an early Atlantic season with limited intensification risk so far, while USGS and Smithsonian records indicate no qualifying seismic or volcanic activity since January. These events remain statistically uncommon on annual timescales, supporting trader consensus that the combined probability stays below one-in-four absent a major shift in conditions or new observations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$222,940 Vol.
$222,940 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$222,940 Vol.
$222,940 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
No at 77% reflects the low historical frequency of the market’s strict thresholds—Category 5 U.S. landfalls, VEI-6+ eruptions, 8.5+ earthquakes, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strikes—none of which have occurred in 2026 to date. National Hurricane Center data show an early Atlantic season with limited intensification risk so far, while USGS and Smithsonian records indicate no qualifying seismic or volcanic activity since January. These events remain statistically uncommon on annual timescales, supporting trader consensus that the combined probability stays below one-in-four absent a major shift in conditions or new observations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
音量
$222,940終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
No at 77% reflects the low historical frequency of the market’s strict thresholds—Category 5 U.S. landfalls, VEI-6+ eruptions, 8.5+ earthquakes, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strikes—none of which have occurred in 2026 to date. National Hurricane Center data show an early Atlantic season with limited intensification risk so far, while USGS and Smithsonian records indicate no qualifying seismic or volcanic activity since January. These events remain statistically uncommon on annual timescales, supporting trader consensus that the combined probability stays below one-in-four absent a major shift in conditions or new observations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
音量
$222,940終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No at 77% reflects the low historical frequency of the market’s strict thresholds—Category 5 U.S. landfalls, VEI-6+ eruptions, 8.5+ earthquakes, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strikes—none of which have occurred in 2026 to date. National Hurricane Center data show an early Atlantic season with limited intensification risk so far, while USGS and Smithsonian records indicate no qualifying seismic or volcanic activity since January. These events remain statistically uncommon on annual timescales, supporting trader consensus that the combined probability stays below one-in-four absent a major shift in conditions or new observations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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