Trader consensus favoring "No" at 75% stems primarily from the absence of qualifying events through mid-2026 and El Niño conditions projected by NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks to suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone activity below average, lowering the odds of a U.S. Category 5 landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring show no elevated seismic swarms or volcanic unrest signals capable of producing an 8.5+ earthquake or VEI 6+ eruption, while meteor strikes exceeding 10 kilotons remain statistically rare. Historical frequency of these thresholds remains low, with upcoming NHC seasonal updates and ongoing geophysical surveillance serving as key reassessment points amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$222,740 Vol.
$222,740 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$222,740 Vol.
$222,740 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring "No" at 75% stems primarily from the absence of qualifying events through mid-2026 and El Niño conditions projected by NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks to suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone activity below average, lowering the odds of a U.S. Category 5 landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring show no elevated seismic swarms or volcanic unrest signals capable of producing an 8.5+ earthquake or VEI 6+ eruption, while meteor strikes exceeding 10 kilotons remain statistically rare. Historical frequency of these thresholds remains low, with upcoming NHC seasonal updates and ongoing geophysical surveillance serving as key reassessment points amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
音量
$222,740終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring "No" at 75% stems primarily from the absence of qualifying events through mid-2026 and El Niño conditions projected by NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks to suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone activity below average, lowering the odds of a U.S. Category 5 landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring show no elevated seismic swarms or volcanic unrest signals capable of producing an 8.5+ earthquake or VEI 6+ eruption, while meteor strikes exceeding 10 kilotons remain statistically rare. Historical frequency of these thresholds remains low, with upcoming NHC seasonal updates and ongoing geophysical surveillance serving as key reassessment points amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
音量
$222,740終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring "No" at 75% stems primarily from the absence of qualifying events through mid-2026 and El Niño conditions projected by NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks to suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone activity below average, lowering the odds of a U.S. Category 5 landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring show no elevated seismic swarms or volcanic unrest signals capable of producing an 8.5+ earthquake or VEI 6+ eruption, while meteor strikes exceeding 10 kilotons remain statistically rare. Historical frequency of these thresholds remains low, with upcoming NHC seasonal updates and ongoing geophysical surveillance serving as key reassessment points amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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