**Trader consensus at 84.5% Yes for “Nothing Ever Happens: 2026” reflects the continued absence of any resolution-triggering events through mid-September.** The market resolves No only if specific high-impact developments occur by December 31, including a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, U.S. invasion of Iran or regime change there, Trump leaving the presidency, Xi Jinping’s removal, Russia invading a NATO country, Bitcoin reaching $1 million or $10,000, or several other listed shocks. Recent months have featured ongoing but contained conflicts such as drone strikes in the Russo-Ukrainian war and Houthi territorial gains in Yemen, alongside routine diplomacy like the BRICS summit and U.S. 9/11 commemorations, none of which meet the defined thresholds. With no leadership transitions or escalations materializing and limited time remaining, the skin-in-the-game pricing indicates traders view major paradigm shifts as unlikely in the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日何も起こらない： 2026年
何も起こらない： 2026年
はい
85% 確率
$787,900 Vol.
$787,900 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
85% 確率
$787,900 Vol.
$787,900 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf**Trader consensus at 84.5% Yes for “Nothing Ever Happens: 2026” reflects the continued absence of any resolution-triggering events through mid-September.** The market resolves No only if specific high-impact developments occur by December 31, including a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, U.S. invasion of Iran or regime change there, Trump leaving the presidency, Xi Jinping’s removal, Russia invading a NATO country, Bitcoin reaching $1 million or $10,000, or several other listed shocks.
Recent months have featured ongoing but contained conflicts such as drone strikes in the Russo-Ukrainian war and Houthi territorial gains in Yemen, alongside routine diplomacy like the BRICS summit and U.S. 9/11 commemorations, none of which meet the defined thresholds. With no leadership transitions or escalations materializing and limited time remaining, the skin-in-the-game pricing indicates traders view major paradigm shifts as unlikely in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
音量
$787,900終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf**Trader consensus at 84.5% Yes for “Nothing Ever Happens: 2026” reflects the continued absence of any resolution-triggering events through mid-September.** The market resolves No only if specific high-impact developments occur by December 31, including a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, U.S. invasion of Iran or regime change there, Trump leaving the presidency, Xi Jinping’s removal, Russia invading a NATO country, Bitcoin reaching $1 million or $10,000, or several other listed shocks.
Recent months have featured ongoing but contained conflicts such as drone strikes in the Russo-Ukrainian war and Houthi territorial gains in Yemen, alongside routine diplomacy like the BRICS summit and U.S. 9/11 commemorations, none of which meet the defined thresholds. With no leadership transitions or escalations materializing and limited time remaining, the skin-in-the-game pricing indicates traders view major paradigm shifts as unlikely in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
音量
$787,900終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus at 84.5% Yes for “Nothing Ever Happens: 2026” reflects the continued absence of any resolution-triggering events through mid-September.** The market resolves No only if specific high-impact developments occur by December 31, including a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, U.S. invasion of Iran or regime change there, Trump leaving the presidency, Xi Jinping’s removal, Russia invading a NATO country, Bitcoin reaching $1 million or $10,000, or several other listed shocks. Recent months have featured ongoing but contained conflicts such as drone strikes in the Russo-Ukrainian war and Houthi territorial gains in Yemen, alongside routine diplomacy like the BRICS summit and U.S. 9/11 commemorations, none of which meet the defined thresholds. With no leadership transitions or escalations materializing and limited time remaining, the skin-in-the-game pricing indicates traders view major paradigm shifts as unlikely in the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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