Polymarket traders price a 57.5% chance of no major triggering events through December 31, 2026, driven by an uneventful first four months absent any listed catalysts like presidential transitions, invasions, regime changes, Bitcoin extremes, Epstein revival, or qualifying natural disasters. Early April U.S. retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian-linked bases in Kuwait and Qatar de-escalated tensions without meeting invasion or regime collapse thresholds, bolstering Yes odds alongside stable Xi Jinping leadership, no Russian NATO incursion, and President Trump's continued tenure despite NATO pullout threats. Remaining risks include 2026 midterm elections potentially yielding Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority, Taiwan Strait diplomacy, and baseline geopolitical or disaster probabilities.