Recent diplomatic progress has anchored trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027. Following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that began in late February 2026 and triggered the 2026 Iran war, officials reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding in mid-June. This framework calls for an immediate end to the naval blockade, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, cessation of hostilities including in Lebanon, and a 60-day period to address Iran’s nuclear program. President Trump has publicly described the deal as complete ahead of formal signing on June 19 and has emphasized that diplomacy remains the preferred path while keeping military options available. Reports highlight substantial risks and costs associated with any ground operation, consistent with the 87.5% implied probability traders assign to “No.”