**Trader consensus on an 88.5% probability of "No" reflects the recent trajectory of U.S.-Iran conflict and diplomacy.** The 2026 war, which began with joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian missile systems, air defenses, and leadership, remained an air and naval campaign without a large-scale ground invasion of Iranian territory. Operations focused on degrading capabilities through strikes, with limited actions such as considerations around strategic islands in the Strait of Hormuz rather than broad occupation. A ceasefire took hold in April, shifting emphasis to negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program. As of mid-June 2026, mediators announced a memorandum of understanding to be signed on June 19, aimed at formally ending hostilities within 60 days. This diplomatic momentum, combined with the high logistical, political, and economic barriers to a full invasion of a large country like Iran, underpins the strong market lean toward no invasion before 2027. Ongoing talks and the absence of mobilization for conventional ground forces further support this pricing.