Ongoing diplomatic efforts, including a June 2026 memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, have sustained a preference for negotiated de-escalation over ground operations despite periodic U.S. airstrikes targeting Iranian military assets. Renewed tensions over Strait of Hormuz shipping since July have prompted limited strikes rather than broader mobilization, while U.S. munitions depletion and strategic costs reinforce restraint. Trader consensus at 82.5% against a U.S. invasion before 2027 reflects these patterns of air-focused pressure, active talks on nuclear and economic issues, and absence of indicators for large-scale troop deployment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$57,489,157 Vol.
$57,489,157 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$57,489,157 Vol.
$57,489,157 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Ongoing diplomatic efforts, including a June 2026 memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, have sustained a preference for negotiated de-escalation over ground operations despite periodic U.S. airstrikes targeting Iranian military assets. Renewed tensions over Strait of Hormuz shipping since July have prompted limited strikes rather than broader mobilization, while U.S. munitions depletion and strategic costs reinforce restraint. Trader consensus at 82.5% against a U.S. invasion before 2027 reflects these patterns of air-focused pressure, active talks on nuclear and economic issues, and absence of indicators for large-scale troop deployment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
音量
$57,489,157終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Ongoing diplomatic efforts, including a June 2026 memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, have sustained a preference for negotiated de-escalation over ground operations despite periodic U.S. airstrikes targeting Iranian military assets. Renewed tensions over Strait of Hormuz shipping since July have prompted limited strikes rather than broader mobilization, while U.S. munitions depletion and strategic costs reinforce restraint. Trader consensus at 82.5% against a U.S. invasion before 2027 reflects these patterns of air-focused pressure, active talks on nuclear and economic issues, and absence of indicators for large-scale troop deployment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
音量
$57,489,157終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic efforts, including a June 2026 memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, have sustained a preference for negotiated de-escalation over ground operations despite periodic U.S. airstrikes targeting Iranian military assets. Renewed tensions over Strait of Hormuz shipping since July have prompted limited strikes rather than broader mobilization, while U.S. munitions depletion and strategic costs reinforce restraint. Trader consensus at 82.5% against a U.S. invasion before 2027 reflects these patterns of air-focused pressure, active talks on nuclear and economic issues, and absence of indicators for large-scale troop deployment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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