Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations, including indirect talks mediated by Oman and Pakistan, alongside a June 2026 memorandum of understanding for a 60-day ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening, have reinforced trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027. Following February 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and the ensuing conflict that killed Iran's Supreme Leader, operations focused on missile sites and infrastructure rather than sustained ground forces. Ongoing diplomacy on nuclear enrichment, sanctions relief, and regional de-escalation in Lebanon signals preference for negotiated limits over occupation, consistent with historical U.S. reluctance for large-scale Iranian incursions amid high logistical and escalation risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$37,746,926 Vol.
$37,746,926 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$37,746,926 Vol.
$37,746,926 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations, including indirect talks mediated by Oman and Pakistan, alongside a June 2026 memorandum of understanding for a 60-day ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening, have reinforced trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027. Following February 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and the ensuing conflict that killed Iran's Supreme Leader, operations focused on missile sites and infrastructure rather than sustained ground forces. Ongoing diplomacy on nuclear enrichment, sanctions relief, and regional de-escalation in Lebanon signals preference for negotiated limits over occupation, consistent with historical U.S. reluctance for large-scale Iranian incursions amid high logistical and escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
音量
$37,746,926終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations, including indirect talks mediated by Oman and Pakistan, alongside a June 2026 memorandum of understanding for a 60-day ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening, have reinforced trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027. Following February 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and the ensuing conflict that killed Iran's Supreme Leader, operations focused on missile sites and infrastructure rather than sustained ground forces. Ongoing diplomacy on nuclear enrichment, sanctions relief, and regional de-escalation in Lebanon signals preference for negotiated limits over occupation, consistent with historical U.S. reluctance for large-scale Iranian incursions amid high logistical and escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
音量
$37,746,978終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations, including indirect talks mediated by Oman and Pakistan, alongside a June 2026 memorandum of understanding for a 60-day ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening, have reinforced trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027. Following February 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and the ensuing conflict that killed Iran's Supreme Leader, operations focused on missile sites and infrastructure rather than sustained ground forces. Ongoing diplomacy on nuclear enrichment, sanctions relief, and regional de-escalation in Lebanon signals preference for negotiated limits over occupation, consistent with historical U.S. reluctance for large-scale Iranian incursions amid high logistical and escalation risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問