US-Iran tensions escalated into direct conflict in early 2026 with US and Israeli airstrikes, naval blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, and targeted operations focused on missile and nuclear sites rather than ground forces. As of mid-June 2026, a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire remains in effect, with the Trump administration citing progress toward a memorandum of understanding that could include limits on Iranian uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, and Hormuz navigation. Diplomatic channels via Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan have prioritized de-escalation over expanded military commitments, while statements from US officials have consistently emphasized air and naval pressure alongside negotiations. These developments, combined with the high logistical and escalation risks of any ground offensive, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 89.5% implied probability for no US invasion before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$37,383,025 Vol.
$37,383,025 Vol.
はい
$37,383,025 Vol.
$37,383,025 Vol.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran tensions escalated into direct conflict in early 2026 with US and Israeli airstrikes, naval blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, and targeted operations focused on missile and nuclear sites rather than ground forces. As of mid-June 2026, a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire remains in effect, with the Trump administration citing progress toward a memorandum of understanding that could include limits on Iranian uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, and Hormuz navigation. Diplomatic channels via Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan have prioritized de-escalation over expanded military commitments, while statements from US officials have consistently emphasized air and naval pressure alongside negotiations. These developments, combined with the high logistical and escalation risks of any ground offensive, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 89.5% implied probability for no US invasion before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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