Recent U.S.-Iran military operations since February 2026 have relied on airstrikes, naval blockades, and targeted actions rather than ground forces, consistent with assessments that a full invasion would require hundreds of thousands of troops amid difficult terrain and high escalation risks. A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire has held with extensions, while direct talks in Islamabad and recent June 2026 diplomatic breakthroughs have produced a memorandum of understanding set for signing, including commitments on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access. Administration statements and Pentagon posture emphasize air and sea pressure alongside negotiations, aligning with trader consensus that an invasion remains unlikely before the 2027 deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$37,593,926 Vol.
$37,593,926 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$37,593,926 Vol.
$37,593,926 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S.-Iran military operations since February 2026 have relied on airstrikes, naval blockades, and targeted actions rather than ground forces, consistent with assessments that a full invasion would require hundreds of thousands of troops amid difficult terrain and high escalation risks. A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire has held with extensions, while direct talks in Islamabad and recent June 2026 diplomatic breakthroughs have produced a memorandum of understanding set for signing, including commitments on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access. Administration statements and Pentagon posture emphasize air and sea pressure alongside negotiations, aligning with trader consensus that an invasion remains unlikely before the 2027 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
音量
$37,593,926終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S.-Iran military operations since February 2026 have relied on airstrikes, naval blockades, and targeted actions rather than ground forces, consistent with assessments that a full invasion would require hundreds of thousands of troops amid difficult terrain and high escalation risks. A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire has held with extensions, while direct talks in Islamabad and recent June 2026 diplomatic breakthroughs have produced a memorandum of understanding set for signing, including commitments on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access. Administration statements and Pentagon posture emphasize air and sea pressure alongside negotiations, aligning with trader consensus that an invasion remains unlikely before the 2027 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
音量
$37,594,315終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Iran military operations since February 2026 have relied on airstrikes, naval blockades, and targeted actions rather than ground forces, consistent with assessments that a full invasion would require hundreds of thousands of troops amid difficult terrain and high escalation risks. A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire has held with extensions, while direct talks in Islamabad and recent June 2026 diplomatic breakthroughs have produced a memorandum of understanding set for signing, including commitments on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access. Administration statements and Pentagon posture emphasize air and sea pressure alongside negotiations, aligning with trader consensus that an invasion remains unlikely before the 2027 deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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