Recent diplomatic progress has anchored trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027. As of mid-June 2026, U.S. and Iranian officials reached agreed wording on a memorandum of understanding to end active hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports, and extend the April ceasefire for 60 days while deferring nuclear and sanctions talks. President Trump canceled planned strikes upon confirmation of high-level Iranian approval, with Pakistan serving as mediator. Ongoing U.S. operations remain limited to targeted self-defense strikes rather than offensive ground maneuvers. These developments, following months of airstrikes since February 2026, have shifted momentum toward negotiated de-escalation and reduced near-term prospects for a full-scale invasion.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$37,075,255 Vol.
$37,075,255 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$37,075,255 Vol.
$37,075,255 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent diplomatic progress has anchored trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027. As of mid-June 2026, U.S. and Iranian officials reached agreed wording on a memorandum of understanding to end active hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports, and extend the April ceasefire for 60 days while deferring nuclear and sanctions talks. President Trump canceled planned strikes upon confirmation of high-level Iranian approval, with Pakistan serving as mediator. Ongoing U.S. operations remain limited to targeted self-defense strikes rather than offensive ground maneuvers. These developments, following months of airstrikes since February 2026, have shifted momentum toward negotiated de-escalation and reduced near-term prospects for a full-scale invasion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
音量
$37,075,255終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent diplomatic progress has anchored trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027. As of mid-June 2026, U.S. and Iranian officials reached agreed wording on a memorandum of understanding to end active hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports, and extend the April ceasefire for 60 days while deferring nuclear and sanctions talks. President Trump canceled planned strikes upon confirmation of high-level Iranian approval, with Pakistan serving as mediator. Ongoing U.S. operations remain limited to targeted self-defense strikes rather than offensive ground maneuvers. These developments, following months of airstrikes since February 2026, have shifted momentum toward negotiated de-escalation and reduced near-term prospects for a full-scale invasion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
音量
$37,077,255終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic progress has anchored trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027. As of mid-June 2026, U.S. and Iranian officials reached agreed wording on a memorandum of understanding to end active hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports, and extend the April ceasefire for 60 days while deferring nuclear and sanctions talks. President Trump canceled planned strikes upon confirmation of high-level Iranian approval, with Pakistan serving as mediator. Ongoing U.S. operations remain limited to targeted self-defense strikes rather than offensive ground maneuvers. These developments, following months of airstrikes since February 2026, have shifted momentum toward negotiated de-escalation and reduced near-term prospects for a full-scale invasion.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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