Skip to main content
icon for 米国は2027年までにイランを侵略するだろうか?

米国は2027年までにイランを侵略するだろうか?

icon for 米国は2027年までにイランを侵略するだろうか?

米国は2027年までにイランを侵略するだろうか?

12月 31

12月 31

はい

16% 確率
Polymarket

$37,077,255 Vol.

はい

16% 確率
Polymarket

$37,077,255 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran, including advancing talks toward a memorandum of understanding on nuclear limits and sanctions relief as of early June 2026, has reinforced trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027. Following the February 28 initiation of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and naval operations under Operation Epic Fury, a conditional ceasefire took hold in April, with subsequent limited self-defense strikes focused on missile sites rather than territorial occupation. Ongoing negotiations mediated in part by third parties, combined with the absence of announced ground force deployments or regime-change operations requiring invasion, have kept the implied probability of escalation to full invasion low at 84.5% for "No." Scheduled diplomatic milestones in the coming weeks could further solidify this trajectory if an agreement is reached.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
音量
$37,077,255
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran, including advancing talks toward a memorandum of understanding on nuclear limits and sanctions relief as of early June 2026, has reinforced trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027. Following the February 28 initiation of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and naval operations under Operation Epic Fury, a conditional ceasefire took hold in April, with subsequent limited self-defense strikes focused on missile sites rather than territorial occupation. Ongoing negotiations mediated in part by third parties, combined with the absence of announced ground force deployments or regime-change operations requiring invasion, have kept the implied probability of escalation to full invasion low at 84.5% for "No." Scheduled diplomatic milestones in the coming weeks could further solidify this trajectory if an agreement is reached.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
音量
$37,077,255
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「米国は2027年までにイランを侵略するだろうか?」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「米国は2027年までにイランを侵攻しますか?」で16%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、16¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に16%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「米国は2027年までにイランを侵略するだろうか?」は$37.1 millionの総取引量を生み出しています(Nov 5, 2025のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「米国は2027年までにイランを侵略するだろうか?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「米国は2027年までにイランを侵略するだろうか?」の現在のフロントランナーは「米国は2027年までにイランを侵攻しますか?」で16%であり、市場がこの結果に16%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「米国は2027年までにイランを侵略するだろうか?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。