Recent de-escalation in the 2026 US-Iran conflict underpins the 87.5% "No" odds. Following February airstrikes and a spring ceasefire, US and Iranian officials finalized a memorandum of understanding in mid-June to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the US naval blockade, and address sanctions relief and reconstruction. The framework sets a 60-day window for further talks on Iran's nuclear program and highly enriched uranium stockpile, with formal signing expected imminently. These steps reflect sustained diplomatic momentum via Pakistani mediation, alongside US force posture adjustments in the region. Traders view a ground invasion as improbable before 2027 absent major new escalations, given the current trajectory toward phased agreements and the substantial military, political, and economic barriers to such an operation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$37,783,440 Vol.
$37,783,440 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$37,783,440 Vol.
$37,783,440 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent de-escalation in the 2026 US-Iran conflict underpins the 87.5% "No" odds. Following February airstrikes and a spring ceasefire, US and Iranian officials finalized a memorandum of understanding in mid-June to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the US naval blockade, and address sanctions relief and reconstruction. The framework sets a 60-day window for further talks on Iran's nuclear program and highly enriched uranium stockpile, with formal signing expected imminently. These steps reflect sustained diplomatic momentum via Pakistani mediation, alongside US force posture adjustments in the region. Traders view a ground invasion as improbable before 2027 absent major new escalations, given the current trajectory toward phased agreements and the substantial military, political, and economic barriers to such an operation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
音量
$37,783,440終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent de-escalation in the 2026 US-Iran conflict underpins the 87.5% "No" odds. Following February airstrikes and a spring ceasefire, US and Iranian officials finalized a memorandum of understanding in mid-June to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the US naval blockade, and address sanctions relief and reconstruction. The framework sets a 60-day window for further talks on Iran's nuclear program and highly enriched uranium stockpile, with formal signing expected imminently. These steps reflect sustained diplomatic momentum via Pakistani mediation, alongside US force posture adjustments in the region. Traders view a ground invasion as improbable before 2027 absent major new escalations, given the current trajectory toward phased agreements and the substantial military, political, and economic barriers to such an operation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
音量
$37,783,471終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent de-escalation in the 2026 US-Iran conflict underpins the 87.5% "No" odds. Following February airstrikes and a spring ceasefire, US and Iranian officials finalized a memorandum of understanding in mid-June to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the US naval blockade, and address sanctions relief and reconstruction. The framework sets a 60-day window for further talks on Iran's nuclear program and highly enriched uranium stockpile, with formal signing expected imminently. These steps reflect sustained diplomatic momentum via Pakistani mediation, alongside US force posture adjustments in the region. Traders view a ground invasion as improbable before 2027 absent major new escalations, given the current trajectory toward phased agreements and the substantial military, political, and economic barriers to such an operation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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