Diplomatic channels remain active as Iran conveyed formal conditions via Qatari mediators for ending hostilities, including sanctions relief and an end to the naval blockade, while President Trump weighs options such as renewed economic pressure or a negotiated settlement ahead of a planned GCC meeting at the UN General Assembly. Limited strikes and sanctions continue amid the protracted conflict that began with February 2026 U.S.-Israeli operations, but no preparations for a full-scale ground invasion have materialized. Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to no U.S. invasion before 2027, reflecting the administration’s emphasis on de-escalation tools short of regime change by force and the high costs already incurred in munitions and operations. Upcoming diplomatic timelines and regional mediation efforts could further shape near-term developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$67,687,303 Vol.
$67,687,303 Vol.
はい
$67,687,303 Vol.
$67,687,303 Vol.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x65070be91...For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
リゾルバー
0x65070be91...Diplomatic channels remain active as Iran conveyed formal conditions via Qatari mediators for ending hostilities, including sanctions relief and an end to the naval blockade, while President Trump weighs options such as renewed economic pressure or a negotiated settlement ahead of a planned GCC meeting at the UN General Assembly. Limited strikes and sanctions continue amid the protracted conflict that began with February 2026 U.S.-Israeli operations, but no preparations for a full-scale ground invasion have materialized. Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to no U.S. invasion before 2027, reflecting the administration’s emphasis on de-escalation tools short of regime change by force and the high costs already incurred in munitions and operations. Upcoming diplomatic timelines and regional mediation efforts could further shape near-term developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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