Ongoing tensions with Iran and its proxies continue to shape trader views on any near-term full closure of Israeli civilian airspace, with the Tel Aviv FIR remaining open as of mid-August 2026 after repeated temporary shutdowns and reopenings from February through July. Those earlier disruptions stemmed directly from US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent missile and drone responses, including a June interception of a projectile launched from Yemen. The breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire in July, accompanied by renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz and a fresh EASA advisory urging operators to assess risks before flying in the region, has kept the security environment volatile. Traders assign low implied probabilities to specific near-term dates because past closures were brief and situational rather than sustained, though fresh escalations or major attacks could rapidly alter that assessment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$27,263,276 Vol.
2026/07/14
8月31日
5%
9月30日
12%
$27,263,276 Vol.
8月31日
$1,231,395 Vol.
5%
9月30日
$0 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions with Iran and its proxies continue to shape trader views on any near-term full closure of Israeli civilian airspace, with the Tel Aviv FIR remaining open as of mid-August 2026 after repeated temporary shutdowns and reopenings from February through July. Those earlier disruptions stemmed directly from US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent missile and drone responses, including a June interception of a projectile launched from Yemen. The breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire in July, accompanied by renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz and a fresh EASA advisory urging operators to assess risks before flying in the region, has kept the security environment volatile. Traders assign low implied probabilities to specific near-term dates because past closures were brief and situational rather than sustained, though fresh escalations or major attacks could rapidly alter that assessment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
音量
$27,263,276終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions with Iran and its proxies continue to shape trader views on any near-term full closure of Israeli civilian airspace, with the Tel Aviv FIR remaining open as of mid-August 2026 after repeated temporary shutdowns and reopenings from February through July. Those earlier disruptions stemmed directly from US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent missile and drone responses, including a June interception of a projectile launched from Yemen. The breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire in July, accompanied by renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz and a fresh EASA advisory urging operators to assess risks before flying in the region, has kept the security environment volatile. Traders assign low implied probabilities to specific near-term dates because past closures were brief and situational rather than sustained, though fresh escalations or major attacks could rapidly alter that assessment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$27,263,276終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing tensions with Iran and its proxies continue to shape trader views on any near-term full closure of Israeli civilian airspace, with the Tel Aviv FIR remaining open as of mid-August 2026 after repeated temporary shutdowns and reopenings from February through July. Those earlier disruptions stemmed directly from US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent missile and drone responses, including a June interception of a projectile launched from Yemen. The breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire in July, accompanied by renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz and a fresh EASA advisory urging operators to assess risks before flying in the region, has kept the security environment volatile. Traders assign low implied probabilities to specific near-term dates because past closures were brief and situational rather than sustained, though fresh escalations or major attacks could rapidly alter that assessment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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