Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming 84% implied probability in the market because the Assembly of Experts selected him as Supreme Leader in early March 2026 shortly after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February US-Israeli strikes. This rapid appointment, backed by the IRGC and clerical institutions, established continuity during wartime. Iranian media in September have intensified references to his qualifications and religious standing while officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian have publicly affirmed his decision-making role and health despite his complete absence from public view since taking office. Persistent rumors about injuries and limited accessibility have not altered the institutional consolidation around him, leaving lower-probability alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or others without comparable momentum or recent catalysts ahead of year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日モジュタバ・ハメネイ 83.9%
国家元首不在 4.8%
レザ・パフラヴィ 2.6%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード 1.8%
$39,519,042 Vol.
$39,519,042 Vol.
2026/12/30
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
84%
国家元首不在
5%
レザ・パフラヴィ
3%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
2%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
1%
アリレザ・アラフィ
1%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
<1%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
<1%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
<1%
アッバース・アラークチー
<1%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
<1%
マスード・ラジャビ
<1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
<1%
ナビド・ショマリ
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
<1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
<1%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
<1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
<1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
<1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
<1%
モジュタバ・ハメネイ 83.9%
国家元首不在 4.8%
レザ・パフラヴィ 2.6%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード 1.8%
$39,519,042 Vol.
$39,519,042 Vol.
2026/12/30
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
$6,532,587 Vol.
84%
国家元首不在
$1,162,049 Vol.
5%
レザ・パフラヴィ
$687,457 Vol.
3%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
$1,131,815 Vol.
2%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
$948,612 Vol.
1%
アリレザ・アラフィ
$2,320,954 Vol.
1%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
$923,733 Vol.
<1%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
$1,023,896 Vol.
<1%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
$1,443,798 Vol.
<1%
アッバース・アラークチー
$835,241 Vol.
<1%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
$780,911 Vol.
<1%
マスード・ラジャビ
$406,939 Vol.
<1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
$461,994 Vol.
<1%
ナビド・ショマリ
$228,205 Vol.
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
$859,577 Vol.
<1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
$441,490 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
$563,115 Vol.
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
$3,157,756 Vol.
<1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
$864,867 Vol.
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
$3,694,989 Vol.
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
$155,679 Vol.
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
$206,808 Vol.
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
$3,360,621 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
$244,071 Vol.
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
$399,096 Vol.
<1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
$5,215,128 Vol.
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
$295,040 Vol.
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
$267,607 Vol.
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
$314,518 Vol.
<1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
$353,629 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming 84% implied probability in the market because the Assembly of Experts selected him as Supreme Leader in early March 2026 shortly after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February US-Israeli strikes. This rapid appointment, backed by the IRGC and clerical institutions, established continuity during wartime. Iranian media in September have intensified references to his qualifications and religious standing while officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian have publicly affirmed his decision-making role and health despite his complete absence from public view since taking office. Persistent rumors about injuries and limited accessibility have not altered the institutional consolidation around him, leaving lower-probability alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or others without comparable momentum or recent catalysts ahead of year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
音量
$39,519,042終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming 84% implied probability in the market because the Assembly of Experts selected him as Supreme Leader in early March 2026 shortly after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February US-Israeli strikes. This rapid appointment, backed by the IRGC and clerical institutions, established continuity during wartime. Iranian media in September have intensified references to his qualifications and religious standing while officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian have publicly affirmed his decision-making role and health despite his complete absence from public view since taking office. Persistent rumors about injuries and limited accessibility have not altered the institutional consolidation around him, leaving lower-probability alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or others without comparable momentum or recent catalysts ahead of year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
音量
$39,519,042終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming 84% implied probability in the market because the Assembly of Experts selected him as Supreme Leader in early March 2026 shortly after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February US-Israeli strikes. This rapid appointment, backed by the IRGC and clerical institutions, established continuity during wartime. Iranian media in September have intensified references to his qualifications and religious standing while officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian have publicly affirmed his decision-making role and health despite his complete absence from public view since taking office. Persistent rumors about injuries and limited accessibility have not altered the institutional consolidation around him, leaving lower-probability alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or others without comparable momentum or recent catalysts ahead of year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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