Recent developments center on Israel's scheduled legislative elections by late October 2026, with dissolution bills under discussion that could advance the vote. Polling shows Netanyahu's Likud-led coalition falling short of a Knesset majority, while opposition parties gain ground amid voter fatigue after years of dominance and multiple conflicts. Ongoing military operations involving Iran and Hezbollah, including recent Israeli strikes and subsequent pauses, keep security issues central, with Netanyahu's public statements emphasizing self-defense and achievements against threats. These dynamics, alongside coalition pressures and institutional timelines, shape trader assessments of resignation or removal probabilities through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Netanyahu confirms he will run in upcoming elections despite doubts
June 30 dips to 2%1%
Despite public doubts voiced by US President Trump and ongoing corruption charges, Netanyahu announced his intention to seek re-election. This declaration reduced market expectations of his imminent resignation or removal, contributing to the sharp decline in short-term exit probabilities.
Netanyahu confirms he will run in upcoming election despite doubts
December 31 drops to 52%10%
On June 10, 2026, Netanyahu confirmed he will seek re-election despite public doubts and ongoing corruption charges, signaling his intent to remain in power and influencing market probabilities downward for his exit before year-end.
Public friction between Netanyahu and Trump exposes political vulnerabilities
Reports of a rift between Netanyahu and Trump over Middle East policy raised questions about Netanyahu's ability to maintain US support, further weakening his political position and contributing to market declines in short-term resignation odds.
Protests grow and opposition threatens resignation without exit strategy
December 31 drops to 50%7%
By early June, protests in Tel Aviv intensified and opposition leader Benny Gantz threatened to resign from the war cabinet if Netanyahu did not present an exit strategy for Gaza, increasing political pressure but Netanyahu remained focused on campaigning.
Renewed fighting between Israel and Iran deepens Netanyahu's political peril
Escalation in hostilities with Iran intensified political challenges for Netanyahu ahead of elections, with declining public support and strained US relations contributing to market uncertainty about his tenure.
US President Trump says Netanyahu 'won't have any choice' but to accept US-Iran deal
June 30 dips to 2%2%
Trump publicly pressured Netanyahu to accept a US-Iran agreement, highlighting tensions and limiting Netanyahu's autonomy, which contributed to political vulnerability and declining market confidence in his continuation past mid-2026.
US President Trump says Netanyahu 'won't have any choice' but to accept US-Iran deal
Trump publicly stated that Netanyahu would have to accept a US-led Iran deal, highlighting tensions between the leaders and adding uncertainty to Netanyahu's political future amid ongoing military operations.
US President Trump questions Netanyahu's political future amid Israeli election campaign
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Trump publicly expressed uncertainty about Netanyahu's desire to continue in politics, while Netanyahu's party affirmed he would run in the upcoming election, highlighting political tensions and influencing market sentiment.
Netanyahu gives CNBC interview amid ongoing Iran conflict and election pressures
December 31 dips to 51%2%
Netanyahu spoke publicly about the Iran conflict and his political situation, emphasizing his intent to continue leadership and highlighting his alliance with the US. This public stance amid regional tensions and upcoming elections contributed to market reassessment of his likelihood to remain in office through the year-end.
US President Trump criticizes Netanyahu, complicating peace talks with Iran
December 31 drops to 50%7%
In early June 2026, US President Donald Trump publicly called Netanyahu 'crazy' and criticized Israel's role in peace talks, undermining Netanyahu's international support and further weakening his political standing.
Netanyahu praises US blockade of Iranian ports amid ongoing Iran conflict
In a CNBC interview, Netanyahu praised US military actions against Iran, emphasizing ongoing conflict and his leadership role, which maintained his political standing but did not significantly alter resignation odds.
Netanyahu's government elects his personal lawyer as state comptroller amid controversy
December 31 rises to 64%3%
On June 3, 2026, Netanyahu's coalition forced through the election of his personal lawyer Michael Rabello as state comptroller amid allegations of vote manipulation, intensifying political controversy but indicating Netanyahu's ongoing control and no immediate resignation.
Netanyahu announces successful treatment for early-stage prostate cancer
December 31 jumps to 62%12%
Netanyahu publicly disclosed he had early-stage prostate cancer but completed successful treatment, reassuring markets about his health and ability to continue in office, temporarily lowering resignation odds.
US President Trump calls Netanyahu 'crazy' but supports Israel in peace talks
December 31 dips to 57%4%
Trump's controversial remarks and support for Israel complicated peace talks but underscored international backing for Netanyahu, influencing market perceptions of his political resilience.
Trump suggests Netanyahu may quit politics; Likud asserts he will run
December 31 dips to 54%4%
US President Donald Trump speculated about Netanyahu's possible political exit, but Likud confirmed Netanyahu's intention to run in the upcoming election, temporarily stabilizing market expectations about his continuation.
Naftali Bennett criticizes Netanyahu's handling of Iran conflict at conference
December 31 jumps to 64%7%
On June 3, 2026, former prime minister Naftali Bennett publicly criticized Netanyahu's management of the recent fighting with Iran, framing it as a normalization of periodic attacks. This criticism contributed to a sharp increase in the December 31 outcome price from 57% to 64%, reflecting increased market speculation about Netanyahu's potential resignation.
Knesset Elects Netanyahu's Personal Lawyer as State Comptroller Amid Turmoil
December 31 drops to 52%8%
In a highly controversial 61-57 vote, lawmakers elected Netanyahu's personal lawyer, Michael Rabello, as state comptroller. This victory helped stabilize Netanyahu's immediate coalition control, contributing to a drop in the December 31 exit odds back to 52% by June 6.
Trump claims Netanyahu may quit politics as poll shows majority of Israelis want him out
December 31 dips to 50%1%
US President Donald Trump questioned whether Netanyahu wants to continue his political career, while a new poll showed 61% of Israelis do not want him to run in the upcoming election, driving up the probability of his exit.
Netanyahu discusses Iran conflict and political challenges in CNBC interview
December 31 dips to 50%4%
In a CNBC interview, Netanyahu reaffirmed his stance on Iran and addressed political pressures, but ongoing regional conflicts and internal dissent continued to weigh on his political stability, reflected in market fluctuations.
Netanyahu gives exclusive interview discussing Iran war and US-Israel relations
In an exclusive interview, Netanyahu discussed ongoing military campaigns and diplomatic relations, signaling his intent to remain in office despite challenges, which helped stabilize market odds for his continuation as Prime Minister.
US President Trump vetoes further fighting in Lebanon, intensifying criticism of Netanyahu
December 31 drops to 51%13%
Trump's veto of further military action in Lebanon led to fierce accusations against Netanyahu for mishandling the campaign, increasing political pressure and uncertainty about his leadership, contributing to market volatility.
US President Trump Criticizes Netanyahu, Halts Israeli Strikes on Beirut
December 31 drops to 52%6%
Trump publicly criticized Netanyahu, calling him 'crazy' and accusing Israel of complicating peace talks with Iran. Trump also halted Israeli strikes on Beirut, causing political controversy but indicating Netanyahu's continued control, which contributed to a decline in resignation odds.
US President Trump halts Israeli strikes on Beirut, Netanyahu faces criticism
December 31 rises to 55%1%
Trump's announcement to halt Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Beirut led to domestic criticism of Netanyahu, highlighting political pressure ahead of elections and increasing speculation about his political future.
Netanyahu faces criticism after U.S. halts Israeli strikes on Beirut
December 31 dips to 60%1%
Netanyahu was criticized domestically for military decisions coordinated with the U.S., highlighting political vulnerabilities and opposition pressure ahead of elections, which likely influenced market sentiment on his political future.
Netanyahu faces political crisis after US vetoes further Lebanon military action
December 31 drops to 51%6%
Netanyahu was accused of mishandling Israel's military campaign in Lebanon after US President Trump vetoed further fighting, undermining Netanyahu's security credentials and weakening his political standing ahead of elections.
Netanyahu publicly rules out resignation despite mounting pressures
December 31 dips to 51%2%
In early June 2026, Netanyahu dismissed calls to resign amid ongoing legal and political challenges, maintaining his position as Prime Minister. This stance contributed to the December 31 outcome price stabilizing around 51%, while June 30 outcome plummeted to 2%.
Roman Gofman appointed new Mossad chief in ceremony with Netanyahu
June 30 dips to 2%2%
A ceremony appointing a new Mossad chief was covered by local media, reflecting routine governance amid the crisis. The event had negligible impact on market odds, but its timing coincides with the final dip of the June 30 outcome to 2 % on June 9.
Netanyahu criticized for abandoning planned attack on Hezbollah under US pressure
December 31 drops to 51%10%
On June 2, Netanyahu faced criticism from political opponents for reportedly abandoning a planned attack on Hezbollah due to US pressure, undermining his security credentials and further weakening his political standing ahead of elections.
Tensions rise between Netanyahu and Trump amid regional conflicts and political pressure
December 31 jumps to 62%10%
Reports emerged of a stormy phone call between Trump and Netanyahu, reflecting frustration over Netanyahu's handling of regional conflicts and political survival concerns. This added to speculation about Netanyahu's political future and potential resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu faces political backlash over Lebanon military campaign amid US pressure
December 31 dips to 51%4%
Netanyahu was accused of mishandling Israel's military campaign in Lebanon after US President Trump vetoed further fighting, exposing political vulnerabilities. This event contributed to market doubts about Netanyahu's ability to maintain power through the year.
Opposition leader Lapid calls Netanyahu's government one of the worst in Israeli history
December 31 jumps to 61%6%
On the day of the first reading of the bill to dissolve the Knesset, opposition leader Yair Lapid publicly criticized Netanyahu's government, reinforcing political pressure and the likelihood of a government change by year-end.
Netanyahu under fire for Lebanon military campaign failures
December 31 dips to 52%4%
Netanyahu faced fierce criticism from political opponents after appearing to abandon a threat to strike Hezbollah in Beirut under pressure from US President Trump, raising questions about his leadership and election prospects.
Netanyahu announces Israel will expand control over 70% of Gaza
Netanyahu's statement about increasing Israeli control over Gaza amid ongoing military operations underscored his focus on security and regional strategy, but did not directly impact his political survival odds.
Israeli military strikes Beirut suburb before Lebanon-Israel talks
December 31 rises to 57%3%
On May 28, 2026, Israeli military strikes in Beirut heightened regional tensions amid ongoing talks with Lebanon. Netanyahu's handling of security issues remained a focal point, with market prices for December 31 outcome peaking at 57%.
Israeli military strikes southern Beirut under Netanyahu's leadership
December 31 rises to 61%4%
Military actions in Lebanon demonstrated Netanyahu's active role in security matters, reinforcing his position as prime minister despite political pressures, which supported market confidence in his continuation.
Netanyahu orders Israeli forces to seize 70% of Gaza
May 31 plunges to 0%26%
Netanyahu directed Israeli forces to expand control over 70% of Gaza, an aggressive military move that intensified political pressure and coincided with the May 31 market outcome dropping to near zero, reflecting diminished short-term resignation expectations.
Netanyahu orders army to seize 70% of Gaza, violating ceasefire deal
December 31 jumps to 58%8%
Netanyahu announced plans to expand control over Gaza to 70% in a bid to shore up right-wing support ahead of the upcoming elections, causing a temporary spike in his year-end exit odds.
Netanyahu directs Israeli military to take over 70% of Gaza territory
December 31 jumps to 59%6%
Netanyahu announced a military directive to expand control over Gaza, reflecting ongoing conflict and political pressures that influenced public opinion and market perceptions of his leadership stability.
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger to form opposition bloc 'Together'
June 30 dips to 3%3%
Former prime ministers Bennett and Lapid merged their parties into a single list named 'Together' to form a strong opposition bloc aiming to unseat Netanyahu. This consolidation increased political pressure on Netanyahu and lowered the market's short-term resignation odds.
Israel's military escalates strikes in Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
June 30 dips to 6%1%
Netanyahu's government intensified military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, projecting strength and control. This bolstered perceptions of Netanyahu's political resilience, causing a temporary drop in resignation odds for mid-2026.
Opposition parties Bennett and Lapid unite to challenge Netanyahu in upcoming elections
December 31 jumps to 65%10%
On May 27, 2026, former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a merger of their parties into a single list named 'Together' to form a strong opposition bloc aiming to unseat Netanyahu. This political development increased market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down by year-end.
Israel's military orders evacuation in southern Lebanon amid conflict with Hezbollah
June 30 rises to 7%4%
Amid ongoing military operations against Hezbollah, Israel's military instructed residents in southern Lebanon to evacuate, reflecting heightened regional tensions. Netanyahu's leadership during this period maintained his political strength, limiting short-term resignation expectations.
Netanyahu's coalition partner Itamar Ben-Gvir resigns in protest
December 31 jumps to 60%10%
Itamar Ben-Gvir and his party resigned from Netanyahu's coalition after Netanyahu pushed through a controversial deal, leaving Netanyahu with a razor-thin majority and increasing political instability, which affected market confidence in his tenure.
Netanyahu's political standing weakens amid coalition turmoil and opposition gains
December 31 rises to 64%3%
By late May, Netanyahu's political position weakened due to coalition fractures and rising opposition strength, reflected in market price peaks and volatility, indicating increased chances of his resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu Faces Intense Backlash Over Ceasefire Deal and Political Crisis
December 31 jumps to 63%9%
Following a ceasefire deal with Iran brokered by Pakistan, Netanyahu faced severe domestic political backlash and international isolation. Opposition leaders criticized his handling of security and peace processes, increasing market uncertainty and driving a peak in resignation odds.
Netanyahu applauds Israeli Eurovision runner-up Noam Bettan amid protests
December 31 jumps to 60%7%
Netanyahu publicly supported Israeli Eurovision contestant Noam Bettan despite protests, reflecting his active public role and political resilience amid ongoing challenges.
Israeli lawmakers advance bill to dissolve parliament
May 31 plunges to 0%26%
The Knesset voted to advance a bill to dissolve parliament after the ultra‑Orthodox UTJ withdrew support over conscription exemptions. The vote sent the May‑31 probability to 0 % and drove the June‑30 odds down to a record low of 2 % on May 23.
Israeli Knesset votes to dissolve itself, triggering early elections
December 31 rises to 55%4%
On May 20, 2026, the Israeli parliament voted 110-0 to dissolve itself, paving the way for early elections by October 27. This increased the likelihood of Netanyahu losing power before the end of 2026, reflected in a rise in the December 31 outcome price.
Knesset advances bill to dissolve parliament amid coalition collapse
December 31 drops to 37%6%
Following the coalition fracture, the Knesset advanced a bill to dissolve itself in May 2026, signaling imminent elections and increasing market expectations of Netanyahu's departure by year-end.
Knesset votes overwhelmingly to dissolve itself, advancing snap election plans
December 31 jumps to 63%11%
The Israeli parliament voted 110-0 in favor of a bill to dissolve itself, potentially bringing forward elections and increasing the likelihood of Netanyahu losing power before the end of 2026.
Knesset passes 2026 state budget, averting automatic dissolution
December 31 jumps to 60%6%
The Knesset passed the 2026 state budget, temporarily averting an automatic dissolution. The resolution lowered the December‑31 market’s risk perception, but a later coalition split kept the probability high; the price rose from 54 % on 23 May to 60 % on 3 Jun.
Ultra‑Orthodox parties pull support from Netanyahu over Haredi conscription dispute
June 30 drops to 5%6%
Ultra‑Orthodox parties withdrew from the coalition over stalled Haredi‑conscription legislation, depriving Netanyahu of his Knesset majority. The fracture triggered a steep decline in the market’s June 30 Yes odds, which fell below 10 % in the days that followed.
Israel's parliament votes to dissolve itself, paving way for early elections
May 31 dips to 0%1%
The Knesset vote to dissolve itself confirmed the early election path, significantly reducing the likelihood of Netanyahu stepping down and causing the May 31 outcome price to reach 0%.
Israeli Knesset votes to dissolve parliament, paving way for early elections
June 30 plunges to 5%15%
The Knesset voted to dissolve itself after ultra‑Orthodox coalition partners withdrew support over a draft‑exemption bill, setting a likely early election. The market’s Yes probability for the June‑30 outcome crashed from 20 % to 5 % within two days.
Knesset votes to dissolve itself in preliminary vote amid coalition pressure from ultra-Orthodox parties
May 31 dips to 0%3%
This decisive event triggered the market's final price drop to 0% on May 31, confirming early elections were imminent.
Israeli parliament votes to dissolve itself, triggering early elections
December 31 jumps to 53%8%
The Knesset voted to dissolve itself after ultra-Orthodox coalition partners withdrew support, leaving Netanyahu's right-wing bloc with a razor-thin majority and increasing the likelihood of his exit by year-end.
Israeli parliament votes unanimously to dissolve itself amid coalition crisis
December 31 surges to 60%18%
The Knesset voted 110-0 to dissolve itself following the withdrawal of ultra-Orthodox factions from Netanyahu's coalition, signaling a political crisis and increasing the likelihood of Netanyahu losing power before the end of 2026. This event sharply increased market odds for Netanyahu stepping down by December 31.
Knesset passes dissolution bill, scheduling early elections for October 27
December 31 surges to 64%19%
Israel's Knesset passed a preliminary dissolution bill with unanimous support, advancing legislative elections to no later than October 27 amid coalition fractures over ultra-Orthodox conscription exemptions, which increased market confidence that Netanyahu might resign or be removed by December 31, 2026.
Israeli Knesset advances bill to dissolve parliament amid coalition fractures
December 31 jumps to 63%10%
The Knesset voted to dissolve itself, setting elections for no later than October 2026, reflecting coalition instability and increasing the likelihood of Netanyahu stepping down or being removed.
Israeli parliament votes to dissolve itself, paving way for early elections
June 30 drops to 6%5%
The Knesset voted to dissolve parliament after an ultra‑Orthodox faction withdrew support over the draft‑exemption law. The move signalled an imminent snap election, driving the June‑30 contract down to 6 % and pulling the December‑31 contract below 40 %.
Knesset Votes to Dissolve Itself in Preliminary Vote
December 31 jumps to 60%9%
The Israeli parliament voted in favor of a preliminary motion to dissolve itself, triggered by disputes with ultra-Orthodox coalition parties. This set off a sharp rise in the December 31 exit odds, which peaked at 66% shortly after.
Israeli lawmakers advance bill to dissolve parliament amid coalition collapse
December 31 rises to 46%4%
The Knesset voted to advance legislation to dissolve itself following ultra-Orthodox factions withdrawing support, signaling imminent elections and increasing the likelihood of Netanyahu losing power before the end of 2026.
Knesset votes unanimously to dissolve itself amid coalition fractures
December 31 jumps to 63%9%
The Israeli parliament voted unanimously to dissolve itself following coalition fractures, especially with ultra-Orthodox factions withdrawing support, signaling political crisis and increasing the likelihood of Netanyahu losing power before the end of 2026.
Israel's Knesset passes preliminary dissolution bill
December 31 jumps to 64%14%
The Knesset advanced a dissolution bill with unanimous preliminary support, scheduling legislative elections by October 27 amid coalition fractures over ultra-Orthodox conscription exemptions, which increased market confidence that Netanyahu might resign or be removed by December 31.
ICC prosecutor seeks arrest warrants for Netanyahu over war crimes allegations
December 31 rises to 53%3%
The International Criminal Court announced intentions to seek arrest warrants for Netanyahu and others for alleged war crimes, intensifying legal and political pressure on Netanyahu and raising speculation about his potential resignation or removal.
Israeli lawmakers vote to dissolve parliament ahead of early elections
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
The Knesset voted to dissolve itself, with the vote prompted by an ultra-Orthodox faction announcing they no longer saw Netanyahu as a partner and would seek early elections. This decisive action significantly increased market expectations of Netanyahu's removal.
Israeli Knesset approves preliminary bill for its dissolution
December 31 rises to 54%1%
The Knesset voted overwhelmingly in a preliminary reading to dissolve itself after ultra-Orthodox coalition partners withdrew support over the stalled military draft exemptions, paving the way for early elections.
Israel's parliament votes to dissolve itself amid coalition collapse
December 31 jumps to 60%7%
The Knesset voted to dissolve itself following the withdrawal of support from ultra-Orthodox factions, signaling political crisis and increasing the probability of Netanyahu's resignation before the end of 2026.
Israeli lawmakers vote to dissolve Knesset amid ultra‑Orthodox draft crisis
May 31 plunges to 0%27%
The Knesset voted in a preliminary reading to dissolve parliament after ultra‑Orthodox factions withdrew support over the draft‑exemption bill. The move signalled a likely early election, pushing the market to believe Netanyahu would be out by the end‑of‑May deadline.
Israel's Knesset advances dissolution bill with unanimous preliminary support
December 31 surges to 64%15%
The Knesset passed a dissolution bill, advancing legislative elections to no later than late October. This effectively secured Netanyahu's position until the next election, causing the market price to settle at 64% on May 25.
Israel recovers remains of last hostage in Gaza, Netanyahu calls it an achievement
December 31 rises to 53%2%
The recovery of the last Israeli hostage's remains was hailed by Netanyahu as a significant achievement, reinforcing his leadership during the ongoing conflict and ceasefire process. This event contributed to a slight increase in market confidence regarding his continuation in office.
Netanyahu compels court to cancel his corruption trial testimony citing security reasons
Netanyahu's lawyers successfully postponed his trial testimony due to his busy schedule with security meetings, demonstrating his continued political activity and delaying legal pressures that might force resignation.
Netanyahu's corruption trial testimony postponed due to security and diplomatic reasons
December 31 rises to 51%1%
Netanyahu's testimony in his ongoing corruption trial was postponed again citing security and diplomatic commitments, allowing him to focus on political activities. This postponement maintained his political viability and delayed potential resignation triggers related to legal outcomes.
Netanyahu cancels corruption trial testimony citing security reasons amid war
December 31 rises to 56%4%
Netanyahu's attorneys canceled his scheduled testimony in his corruption trial due to ongoing diplomatic and security meetings related to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, highlighting his focus on security issues over legal challenges.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza amid ceasefire talks
May 31 dips to 1%2%
Netanyahu’s government conducted a major operation to recover the last hostage in Gaza, a key step before advancing the ceasefire’s second phase. This demonstrated Netanyahu’s continued control and leadership, contributing to the market’s sharp decline in short-term resignation probabilities.
Netanyahu announces successful treatment for early-stage prostate cancer
December 31 dips to 56%1%
Netanyahu disclosed that a malignant tumour was removed and he is in excellent health, alleviating concerns about his ability to continue in office and supporting market stability.
Israel recovers remains of last hostage in Gaza, Netanyahu calls it an achievement
December 31 rises to 51%1%
The recovery of the last hostage's remains in Gaza was a significant event for Netanyahu's government, reinforcing his leadership during the ongoing conflict and peace process, which likely contributed to the stabilization of the December 31 outcome price around 51%.
Attorney General Gali Baharav‑Miara confronts Netanyahu over legal case
December 31 dips to 52%2%
Attorney General Baharav‑Miara publicly challenged Netanyahu’s legal standing, intensifying speculation about a forced resignation. The market’s Yes probability for the December‑31 outcome slipped from 54 % to 52 % that week.
Netanyahu urges calm after Israeli police forcibly enter UNRWA compound
December 31 dips to 50%2%
Netanyahu's government faced international criticism after Israeli police forcibly entered a UN Palestinian aid agency compound, underscoring ongoing tensions but no indication of resignation, maintaining market skepticism.
Israel's governing coalition fractures over military conscription bill
December 31 jumps to 61%7%
In mid-May 2026, ultra-Orthodox parties withdrew support from Netanyahu's coalition over stalled legislation on Haredi conscription, leading to Knesset dissolution and scheduled elections. This political crisis sharply increased the likelihood of Netanyahu stepping down, reflected in market dynamics.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite earlier criticism
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the Board of Peace, a U.S.-led initiative to oversee Gaza ceasefire and broader regional peace efforts, signaled his continued political engagement and leadership, supporting the market's slight increase in December 31 resignation probability.
Opposition coalition forms to unseat Netanyahu ahead of elections
December 31 rises to 54%1%
In May 2026, opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a joint list to challenge Netanyahu in upcoming elections, increasing political pressure on him. This contributed to a rise in the December 31 outcome price to 54%.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 52%1%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel’s regional position and demonstrating his ongoing governance role. This positive economic development likely bolstered market confidence in his tenure through the end of 2026.
Ultra-Orthodox parties quit Netanyahu's coalition over stalled conscription bill
December 31 drops to 43%9%
In mid-May 2026, ultra-Orthodox parties withdrew support from Netanyahu's government, fracturing the coalition and prompting the Knesset to advance a dissolution bill, sharply increasing the likelihood of Netanyahu stepping down or early elections.
Israel objects to US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza ceasefire next steps
Israel's government, led by Netanyahu, publicly objected to the US-led executive committee overseeing Gaza's ceasefire next steps, reflecting internal political tensions but maintaining Netanyahu's leadership role, which likely stabilized the market's year-end resignation probability.
Netanyahu meets Trump to discuss Iran talks and regional security
Netanyahu held a meeting with U.S. President Trump focusing on Iran negotiations and regional security issues. This high-profile engagement reinforced expectations that Netanyahu would remain in office through the year-end, reflected in the December 31 outcome price stabilizing around 51%.
Netanyahu tries to calm tensions after ultra-Orthodox boy killed by bus
Netanyahu's call for calm after a tragic incident during ultra-Orthodox protests highlighted ongoing domestic unrest but no indication of resignation, supporting market prices stabilizing around 51% for December 31 outcome.
Netanyahu's coalition proposes early elections amid ultra-Orthodox anger
December 31 rises to 56%3%
Netanyahu's ruling coalition submitted a bill to dissolve parliament to pave the way for early elections as pressure from ultra-Orthodox parties mounted, signaling imminent government collapse and increasing market expectations of Netanyahu's departure.
Ruling coalition proposes early elections after ultra‑Orthodox parties withdraw support
May 31 plunges to 0%26%
All six governing factions signed a draft to dissolve the Knesset over Haredi conscription disputes. The “May 31” line collapsed from 26 % to 3 % within two days, and the “June 30” line fell to 4 %, reflecting heightened expectations of a resignation before summer.
Netanyahu's coalition submits bill to dissolve parliament amid ultra-Orthodox withdrawal
December 31 rises to 53%3%
The ultra-Orthodox faction withdrew support over stalled military draft exemption legislation, leading Netanyahu's coalition to advance dissolution legislation, signaling political instability and increasing chances of Netanyahu's resignation by year-end.
Opposition coalition launches bid to unseat Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 53%8%
A new opposition coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid formed a united front to challenge Netanyahu in upcoming elections, increasing market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down by the end of 2026.
Opposition coalition formed to unseat Netanyahu in upcoming election
December 31 jumps to 50%9%
On May 13, 2026, former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid merged their parties to form a coalition aimed at ousting Netanyahu, intensifying political competition and uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure.
Opposition coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid unites to challenge Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 63%13%
Two of Netanyahu's biggest rivals merged their parties to form a united opposition front aiming to oust Netanyahu in the upcoming election, increasing political pressure and market speculation about his potential exit.
Israeli ruling coalition proposes early elections amid ultra-Orthodox anger at Netanyahu
December 31 rises to 64%4%
The ruling coalition submitted legislation to dissolve parliament, paving the way for early elections and signaling increased political instability that raised market expectations for Netanyahu's resignation by the end of 2026.
Opposition coalition led by Bennett and Lapid launches bid to unseat Netanyahu
June 30 drops to 12%7%
The opposition coalition announced a joint effort to replace Netanyahu in the upcoming election, intensifying political pressure and contributing to declining market confidence in Netanyahu's continued premiership by mid-2026.
Opposition coalition files bill to dissolve Knesset
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
Opposition parties filed a separate bill to dissolve the Knesset, adding pressure on the coalition and causing the May‑31 price to fall from 26 % to 3 % within a week.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on escalating settler violence in West Bank
Netanyahu held a security cabinet meeting to address rising Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, reflecting ongoing internal security challenges. This event underscored the political pressures Netanyahu faces but did not lead to resignation, consistent with market price stability.
Israeli opposition coalition launches bid to unseat Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 53%12%
The formation of a united opposition coalition by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid in May 2026 intensified political pressure on Netanyahu, sharply increasing market expectations of his potential removal before year-end.
Opposition coalition led by Bennett and Lapid launches bid to unseat Netanyahu
December 31 rises to 54%3%
Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid merged their parties to form a strong opposition bloc aiming to defeat Netanyahu in upcoming elections, increasing political pressure and market odds for Netanyahu's resignation by year-end.
Israel’s ruling coalition proposes early elections amid ultra-Orthodox anger at Netanyahu
December 31 dips to 42%4%
Netanyahu's coalition submitted a proposal to dissolve parliament due to ultra-Orthodox parties' anger over military draft exemptions, signaling imminent elections and increasing market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down before year-end.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran and Gaza ceasefire
May 31 dips to 1%2%
The high‑profile diplomatic meeting shifted focus to U.S. negotiations, suggesting Netanyahu was seeking external support rather than domestic stability, which further lowered confidence in a May 31 resignation.
Israeli coalition submits bill to dissolve parliament, paving way for early elections
December 31 jumps to 53%7%
Netanyahu's ruling coalition submitted legislation to dissolve parliament, signaling political instability and the likelihood of early elections. This move increased market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future and potential exit before the end of 2026.
Ultra-Orthodox coalition partner calls for Knesset dissolution, threatening Netanyahu government
December 31 jumps to 64%11%
An ultra-Orthodox party in Netanyahu's coalition demanded parliament dissolution over stalled military draft exemption legislation, signaling imminent government collapse and increasing odds of Netanyahu leaving office before year-end.
Ultra-Orthodox parties withdraw support, fracturing Netanyahu's coalition
December 31 plunges to 35%15%
In May 2026, ultra-Orthodox parties withdrew support over military conscription exemptions and budget priorities, stripping Netanyahu of a Knesset majority and triggering a political crisis that sharply decreased market confidence in his continued tenure.
Israeli governing coalition fractures as parliament moves to dissolve
December 31 jumps to 50%9%
In May 2026, Netanyahu's coalition fractured when Knesset lawmakers advanced legislation to dissolve parliament, paving the way for national elections expected by late October, significantly raising the likelihood of Netanyahu's exit.
Ultra-Orthodox parties break with Netanyahu over military conscription dispute
December 31 dips to 50%3%
Key ultra-Orthodox coalition partners publicly withdrew support from Netanyahu's government due to failure to pass a military draft exemption law, triggering a political crisis and calls for early elections.
Netanyahu shelves Haredi draft exemption bill, triggering coalition collapse threats
Netanyahu informed ultra-Orthodox leaders that he would not advance legislation exempting their community from military service before the elections, prompting religious partners to call for the dissolution of the Knesset.
Ultra-Orthodox coalition partners withdraw support over military draft dispute
December 31 surges to 66%15%
Key ultra-Orthodox parties in Netanyahu's coalition withdrew support due to stalled legislation on military conscription exemptions, triggering a political crisis and increasing the likelihood of early elections and Netanyahu's potential resignation.
Ultra-Orthodox party calls to dissolve parliament over military draft dispute
A key ultra-Orthodox coalition partner withdrew support and called for the Knesset to dissolve after Netanyahu shelved a military draft exemption bill, threatening to collapse the government.
Ultra-Orthodox parties threaten to dissolve parliament over military draft dispute
June 30 plunges to 5%15%
In May 2026, ultra-Orthodox coalition partners withdrew support over conscription exemptions, threatening government collapse and early elections, sharply reducing market confidence in Netanyahu's continuation past mid-2026.
Ultra-Orthodox coalition partner calls for parliament dissolution, threatening government collapse
June 30 plunges to 3%18%
An ultra-Orthodox party in Netanyahu's coalition demanded parliament dissolution over military draft disputes, signaling imminent government collapse and early elections, sharply increasing uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure and lowering June 30 resignation odds.
Ultra-Orthodox coalition partners call for parliament dissolution over military draft dispute
December 31 plunges to 36%15%
An ultra-Orthodox party in Netanyahu's coalition demanded dissolving the Knesset due to failure to pass military draft exemption legislation, threatening government collapse and early elections, which increased market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down by year-end.
Ultra-Orthodox party calls for dissolution of Israeli parliament, threatening Netanyahu's coalition
December 31 surges to 63%16%
An ultra-Orthodox faction, a key ally of Netanyahu, withdrew support over stalled military conscription legislation, leading to the Knesset voting to dissolve itself and triggering early elections, sharply increasing the likelihood of Netanyahu losing power before the end of 2026.
Ultra-Orthodox parties threaten to dissolve parliament over military draft dispute
December 31 jumps to 53%5%
Ultra-Orthodox coalition partners withdrew support over Netanyahu's failure to advance legislation exempting their community from military service, threatening government collapse and early elections, increasing resignation speculation.
Netanyahu meets Trump to discuss Iran talks and Gaza ceasefire progress
December 31 rises to 51%2%
Netanyahu met with U.S. President Trump to discuss ongoing Iran nuclear negotiations and progress on Gaza ceasefire, reaffirming his leadership role in critical regional issues. This meeting likely reinforced market confidence in Netanyahu's position through the end of the year, contributing to the rise in the December 31 outcome probability.
Netanyahu announces plan to end all U.S. military aid to Israel within a decade
December 31 rises to 45%4%
On May 10, 2026, Netanyahu declared his intention to phase out U.S. military aid, signaling a strategic shift but also reflecting domestic and international pressures, which contributed to market uncertainty about his political future.
Netanyahu faces renewed US pressure to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
May 31 dips to 1%2%
U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging swift movement into the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, signaling that continued delays could jeopardize his standing with Washington and increase resignation speculation.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
May 31 dips to 1%1%
Israel launched a major operation to find the last hostage in Gaza, with Netanyahu's government involved in sensitive security matters, reinforcing his position and lowering chances of resignation by May 31.
Netanyahu says Israel will phase out U.S. military support
June 30 dips to 3%2%
Netanyahu told CBS he wants to wean Israel off U.S. military aid, a stance that alarmed domestic allies and contributed to a final drop in the June‑30 Yes price to 3 % on 2026‑06‑03.
Netanyahu faces renewed corruption trial pressure amid declining support
June 30 dips to 3%2%
Renewed media focus on Netanyahu’s ongoing corruption trial intensified political uncertainty, contributing to the final drop in the May‑31 and June‑30 probabilities to 1% and 3% respectively.
UTJ withdraws support, coalition collapses
May 31 dips to 0%3%
UTJ formally withdrew its support on May 10, 2026, after failed negotiations on Haredi conscription, stripping Netanyahu of a parliamentary majority and collapsing the coalition – the event that pushed the May‑31 odds to zero.
Trump and Netanyahu meet in Florida, discuss Iran and Gaza progress
December 31 jumps to 53%7%
The high-profile meeting between Trump and Netanyahu focused on Iran negotiations and Gaza ceasefire progress, highlighting Netanyahu's ongoing political relevance and leadership, which likely supported market confidence in his continuation as Prime Minister.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 rises to 51%2%
Netanyahu's government initiated a major military operation to recover the last hostage in Gaza, underscoring his continued leadership and focus on security issues, which likely diminished market expectations of his stepping down soon.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Florida, discusses Iran and Gaza ceasefire progress
December 31 rises to 51%2%
Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump focused on Iran’s nuclear threat and advancing the Gaza ceasefire’s second phase. Despite ongoing challenges, Netanyahu’s active leadership role and Trump’s public support, including calls for a pardon, bolstered market confidence in Netanyahu’s continued tenure through 2026.
Ultra-Orthodox UTJ party withdraws support, collapsing Netanyahu's coalition
December 31 jumps to 53%11%
The United Torah Judaism party withdrew its support after failed negotiations on Haredi conscription, stripping Netanyahu of his parliamentary majority and collapsing the coalition, which pushed resignation odds sharply higher.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 dips to 49%3%
US envoys pressed Netanyahu to move forward with the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, highlighting ongoing political and security challenges. This pressure may have contributed to some market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future, reflected in minor price fluctuations.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 53%7%
Netanyahu's approval of a historic natural gas export deal to Egypt demonstrated his continued leadership and influence in regional economic affairs, supporting market confidence that he would not resign imminently.
Singapore imposes sanctions on Israeli settlers amid West Bank violence
December 31 jumps to 53%9%
Singapore announced targeted sanctions on Israeli settlers involved in violence against Palestinians, highlighting international pressure on Israel. Netanyahu's government faced criticism but maintained its policies, reflecting political resilience and affecting resignation market prices.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 51%6%
Netanyahu’s government launched a major operation to find the last hostage in Gaza, a key issue delaying the next ceasefire phase. This operation underscored Netanyahu’s active leadership during wartime, supporting market confidence in his continuation as Prime Minister.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox tensions and violence
December 31 rises to 50%1%
Netanyahu called for restraint following violent protests and a fatal accident involving ultra-Orthodox demonstrators, highlighting ongoing internal political challenges but no indication of resignation plans.
Netanyahu meets Trump, insists on expanded US talks with Iran
December 31 jumps to 53%5%
Netanyahu's private meeting with President Trump, where he pushed for expanded negotiations with Iran including missile and militant group limits, underscored his active role in foreign policy, supporting market confidence in his continued tenure through the year-end.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s expanded Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire
May 31 dips to 1%1%
Despite earlier criticism, Netanyahu agreed to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire's second phase, indicating his ongoing active role in regional diplomacy and governance. This reduced market expectations for an imminent resignation, reflected in the decline of probabilities for May 31 and June 30 outcomes.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 53%5%
Netanyahu announced his acceptance to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace, expanding his political role in regional peace efforts. This move suggested his continued active leadership, supporting a rise in the December 31 resignation probability from 48% to 53%.
Trump hosts signing ceremony for Board of Peace in Davos with Netanyahu’s participation
December 31 rises to 53%3%
President Trump held a signing ceremony for the Board of Peace, with Netanyahu among the leaders present. The event underscored Netanyahu’s ongoing political engagement and alliance with Trump, reinforcing market expectations that he would not resign imminently.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 rises to 53%4%
The landmark energy agreement was presented as a major economic win for Netanyahu’s government, temporarily lifting confidence in his leadership and nudging the December‑31 price upward again.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 53%8%
Israel's military launched a major operation to find the last hostage in Gaza, with Netanyahu's government actively managing the complex ceasefire process. This demonstrated Netanyahu's continued control over critical security issues, reducing resignation likelihood.
Netanyahu meets with U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran talks and Gaza ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 50%5%
Netanyahu's high-profile meeting with Trump in Washington focused on Iran nuclear negotiations and Gaza ceasefire progress, underscoring his active leadership role and reducing near-term resignation expectations, coinciding with a peak in December 31 outcome price.
Netanyahu reiterates Hamas must disarm in Gaza peace process
December 31 jumps to 53%12%
Netanyahu emphasized that Hamas must disarm as part of the Gaza ceasefire agreement and peace process, reinforcing his commitment to regional stability. This statement coincided with a slight increase in the December 31 resignation probability from 41% to 53%.
Netanyahu joins Trump-led Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
May 31 dips to 1%2%
Netanyahu accepted a role on the Trump-led Board of Peace to oversee Gaza ceasefire implementation, signaling his continued active political role and reducing market expectations of resignation by May 31.
Netanyahu publicly discloses prostate cancer treatment amid election campaign
June 30 dips to 5%2%
In late April 2026, Netanyahu revealed he had undergone surgery for prostate cancer, exposing a personal vulnerability that raised questions about his health and political future, contributing to market uncertainty and a decline in short-term resignation odds by June 30 and May 31.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt
The landmark gas deal was presented as a major economic win for Netanyahu, but critics argued it was a political maneuver to shore up support, leading some investors to doubt the durability of his coalition and further depress market odds.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Netanyahu's approval of the largest natural gas export deal in Israeli history strengthened his position as a regional leader and energy power, likely bolstering his political standing and decreasing short-term resignation probabilities.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal tensions and political challenges for Netanyahu, slightly affecting market confidence in his tenure lasting through May 31.
Sharp drop in June‑30 and May‑31 odds after ultra‑Orthodox draft law stalls
June 30 dips to 3%2%
Parliamentary deadlock over the ultra‑Orthodox conscription bill deepened, with key coalition partners threatening to withdraw support, causing market participants to view a near‑term resignation as increasingly likely.
Netanyahu joins Trump‑led Gaza Board of Peace, sparking coalition friction
May 31 dips to 1%2%
Netanyahu’s decision to join the Trump‑initiated Board of Peace was seen as a shift from his earlier stance, creating tension with right‑wing coalition partners and pushing the May‑31 and June‑30 odds down sharply.
Video of protests calling for Netanyahu's resignation is outdated
December 31 rises to 42%1%
Circulated videos claiming mass protests demanding Netanyahu's resignation were debunked as outdated, reducing immediate pressure from public demonstrations and impacting market confidence in his staying power.
Cabinet meeting on rising West Bank settler violence
June 30 dips to 3%4%
Netanyahu convened his security cabinet to address a surge in settler attacks in the West Bank, underscoring internal security challenges and pressure from right‑wing coalition partners. The heightened unrest further depressed the June‑30 and May‑31 resignation probabilities.
Bennett and Lapid form joint opposition alliance ahead of 2026 election
December 31 jumps to 63%11%
Bennett and Lapid announced a joint opposition alliance to contest the 2026 election, raising the prospect of a united bloc capable of unseating Netanyahu. The news coincided with a brief rebound in the December‑31 contract (up to 63 % on 2026‑05‑25) as markets reassessed the likelihood of a coalition collapse.
Opposition Leaders Bennett and Lapid Merge Parties to Challenge Netanyahu
December 31 rises to 47%4%
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a joint party named Together, consolidating opposition forces against Netanyahu ahead of the 2026 elections. This increased political pressure and raised market expectations for Netanyahu's eventual resignation by year-end, causing a decline in short-term resignation odds.
Iran president claims full-scale war with West ahead of Netanyahu-Trump meeting
December 31 jumps to 42%6%
Iran's president stated his country is in a full-scale war with the U.S., Israel, and Europe, escalating tensions ahead of the Netanyahu-Trump meeting and complicating regional diplomacy.
Netanyahu spokesman's racist remarks leak, sparking controversy
December 31 rises to 44%3%
Netanyahu's spokesman Ziv Agmon made racist comments about Mizrahi Jews, causing public backlash and internal political pressure. Netanyahu's decision to keep him temporarily in office may have affected public perception and market confidence in Netanyahu's political stability.
Netanyahu's main rivals Bennett and Lapid merge to challenge him
December 31 surges to 66%16%
Two of Netanyahu's biggest political rivals merged their parties to form a strong opposition bloc aiming to unseat him in the upcoming election, significantly increasing pressure on Netanyahu's government and raising resignation odds.
Bennett and Lapid form joint opposition slate against Netanyahu
June 30 drops to 6%6%
Bennett and Lapid announced a joint opposition ticket to oust Netanyahu in the upcoming 2026 election, sharpening expectations of a possible loss. The market’s Yes price for the June‑30 outcome fell from 12 % to 6 % over the following week.
Israeli police forcibly enter UNRWA compound in Jerusalem
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
The forceful entry into the UN agency’s Jerusalem office sparked international criticism of Netanyahu’s handling of humanitarian issues, prompting traders to downgrade short‑term resignation odds, reflected in the sharp drop of the May‑31 option.
Netanyahu requests postponement of trial testimony citing security concerns
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
Reports emerged that Netanyahu sought to delay his corruption trial testimony for security reasons, a request rejected by prosecutors. This indicated his intent to remain in office amid ongoing legal challenges, contributing to a sharp drop in the market's May 31 resignation probability from 26% to 3%.
Israel’s president puts off decision on pardon for Netanyahu
December 31 dips to 40%4%
The president’s office delayed a decision on a possible pardon for Netanyahu, stating that a pardon would require his resignation or a guilty verdict. The legal dead‑lock signaled that Netanyahu could not count on an early exit, reinforcing the decline in the “December 31” price.
Bennett and Lapid announce joint opposition bloc to unseat Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 46%5%
Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid merged their parties to form a strong opposition alliance aiming to defeat Netanyahu in the upcoming election, increasing political pressure and raising the probability of Netanyahu's resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address rising settler violence in West Bank
December 31 dips to 40%2%
Amid a surge in settler attacks, Netanyahu held a security‑cabinet meeting, signalling a firm response to domestic unrest. The move was interpreted as an attempt to shore up his coalition, nudging the December‑31 resignation probability upward slightly.
Netanyahu's main rivals Bennett and Lapid merge parties to challenge him
December 31 jumps to 51%9%
On April 26, former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid merged their parties to form a coalition aimed at ousting Netanyahu in the upcoming election, increasing political pressure and market expectations of his potential exit.
Limited travel resumes through Rafah crossing as Gaza ceasefire phase advances
December 31 dips to 40%2%
Israel announced limited travel through the Rafah crossing with Gaza, marking progress in the ceasefire's second phase. Netanyahu's government faced ongoing challenges balancing security and humanitarian concerns, influencing market views on his political durability.
Bennett and Lapid announce joint effort to unseat Netanyahu in upcoming elections
May 31 plunges to 0%26%
The alliance between two former prime ministers signaled a major opposition coalition, increasing pressure on Netanyahu and contributing to market volatility as the May 31 outcome price dropped sharply.
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce joint 'Together' alliance to challenge Netanyahu
Former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced the merger of their parties into a single list named 'Together' to contest the upcoming elections, creating a formidable opposition bloc to unseat Netanyahu.
Opposition leaders Bennett and Lapid unite to challenge Netanyahu in upcoming elections
December 31 jumps to 53%10%
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a joint political alliance to contest the 2026 elections under Bennett's leadership, aiming to unseat Netanyahu. This consolidation of opposition forces contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future, reflected in fluctuating odds.
Israeli President delays decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt corruption trial
Israeli President Isaac Herzog delayed a decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt his ongoing corruption trial, signaling continued legal and political challenges for Netanyahu but no immediate resignation. This contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in short-term resignation probabilities.
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger to unseat Netanyahu
May 31 plunges to 0%26%
Two former prime ministers announced they would merge their parties to build a broader opposition bloc aimed at replacing Netanyahu in the upcoming election, intensifying pressure on his leadership.
Israeli opposition leaders Bennett and Lapid announce alliance to unseat Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 50%7%
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid merged their parties into a new alliance called Together, aiming to form a government to replace Netanyahu. This political consolidation increased market expectations for Netanyahu's eventual exit by the end of 2026.
Netanyahu faces mounting political pressure amid coalition fractures and corruption trial
December 31 rises to 43%3%
On April 26, 2026, reports highlighted Netanyahu's political vulnerability due to coalition splits over ultra-Orthodox conscription exemptions and his ongoing corruption trial, increasing market uncertainty about his tenure and raising the December 31 resignation probability from 40% to around 43%.
Former PMs Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce joint party to unseat Netanyahu
December 31 rises to 42%1%
Bennett and Lapid, former prime ministers, announced a merger to contest the upcoming election, uniting opposition forces and significantly increasing political pressure on Netanyahu to resign or be removed.
Former Israeli prime ministers Bennett and Lapid form alliance to unseat Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 46%5%
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a joint electoral alliance aimed at uniting opposition forces to challenge Netanyahu's leadership, increasing political pressure on Netanyahu and contributing to market expectations of his potential resignation by year-end.
Former PMs Bennett and Lapid merge parties to challenge Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 46%5%
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a joint party to contest the 2026 elections, consolidating opposition forces against Netanyahu. This increased political pressure and market expectations for Netanyahu's eventual resignation by year-end.
Former PMs Bennett and Lapid unite to challenge Netanyahu in elections
June 30 plunges to 5%18%
Bennett and Lapid announced a merger of their parties to form a joint opposition bloc, raising expectations of a credible challenge to Netanyahu. The market’s June‑30 probability fell from the high‑20s on early April to single digits by mid‑May as the prospect of a forced exit grew.
Former Israeli PMs Bennett and Lapid unite to challenge Netanyahu in elections
December 31 drops to 40%6%
Bennett and Lapid announced a merger of their parties to form a joint bloc aimed at ousting Netanyahu in the upcoming election. The alliance signaled a credible, united opposition, causing the “December 31” probability to fall from a mid‑40 % range to 40 % by the end of the analysis window.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran talks
December 31 rises to 49%3%
Netanyahu’s three‑hour private meeting with President Trump was framed as a push for renewed U.S.–Iran negotiations, raising hopes that a diplomatic win could stabilize his coalition and lower resignation risk, contributing to a modest price rise for the December‑31 outcome.
Netanyahu urges calm after teen killed in ultra‑Orthodox protest
May 31 plunges to 3%24%
Following the death of a 14‑year‑old boy during protests against a draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews, Netanyahu called for restraint. The incident highlighted growing domestic tension and the fragility of his coalition, causing the May‑31 and June‑30 resignation odds to fall sharply.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 jumps to 46%5%
US envoys pressing Netanyahu to move forward with the Gaza ceasefire's next phase indicated ongoing diplomatic engagement and Netanyahu's active role, which likely decreased market odds of his resignation by mid-2026.
Netanyahu reveals early-stage prostate cancer diagnosis and successful treatment
December 31 rises to 45%4%
Netanyahu publicly disclosed his early-stage prostate cancer diagnosis and completion of successful treatment, alleviating concerns about his health and stabilizing market expectations regarding his continuation in office.
Netanyahu announces successful treatment for early-stage prostate cancer
December 31 dips to 41%2%
Netanyahu publicly revealed he had been diagnosed with early-stage prostate cancer but completed successful treatment with no metastasis. This health disclosure reassured the public and markets about his capacity to continue in office, stabilizing but not reversing the downward trend in resignation odds.
Netanyahu reveals he has been treated for early‑stage prostate cancer
June 30 plunges to 5%16%
Netanyahu publicly disclosed his early‑stage prostate cancer treatment, confirming his health but also exposing a personal vulnerability. The announcement coincided with the market’s June‑30 probability plunging from around 21 % on Mar 6 to 5 % by early May.
Netanyahu reveals he underwent successful prostate cancer treatment
December 31 jumps to 48%6%
Netanyahu disclosed his recent prostate cancer treatment and recovery, addressing health concerns that had fueled speculation about his ability to continue in office, which helped stabilize market confidence in his tenure through the end of 2026.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Reveals Prostate Cancer Diagnosis
December 31 dips to 41%1%
Netanyahu publicized his annual medical report revealing he had quietly undergone successful treatment for early-stage prostate cancer. The disclosure exposed personal vulnerability and raised questions about his health, contributing to market uncertainty.
Poll shows Bennett narrowing gap with Netanyahu ahead of October election
June 30 dips to 7%3%
Internal poll data showing Bennett closing the gap to Netanyahu (Bennett 32 % vs. Netanyahu 42 %) added to market anxiety, contributing to the final fall of the “June 30” probability to 7 % and the “December 31” probability to 41 %.
Netanyahu urges calm after bus kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
The death of a 14‑year‑old protester heightened tensions with religious parties that support Netanyahu, prompting fears of a coalition collapse and increasing the chance of his resignation by May 31.
Netanyahu reveals successful prostate cancer treatment, health stable
December 31 dips to 41%2%
Netanyahu disclosed he underwent and completed treatment for early-stage prostate cancer, addressing rumors and potentially impacting perceptions of his ability to continue in office.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft‑law protest, prompting Netanyahu call for calm
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
A teenage boy was run over by a bus amid protests against Netanyahu’s plan to draft ultra‑Orthodox Jews, leading the prime minister to urge restraint. The incident heightened political pressure on his coalition, causing the market’s May‑31 resignation probability to plunge.
Netanyahu reveals secret cancer treatment, says he’s healthy
December 31 dips to 42%4%
Netanyahu publicly disclosed a recent prostate‑cancer treatment, emphasizing his health was stable. The revelation reduced speculation about a health‑related resignation, nudging the “December 31” probability down a few points.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 rises to 46%3%
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced a historic $35 billion natural‑gas contract with Egypt, portraying it as a boost to Israel’s regional influence. The deal was seen as a political win, pushing the December‑31 resignation probability up as his government appeared more stable.
Netanyahu reveals secret prostate cancer treatment
December 31 jumps to 50%5%
Netanyahu disclosed undergoing successful prostate cancer treatment, which he had kept secret to avoid political exploitation. This raised concerns about his health and political future, increasing market uncertainty about his tenure.
Netanyahu publicly reveals early-stage prostate cancer diagnosis and successful treatment
December 31 rises to 45%3%
Netanyahu disclosed he had early-stage prostate cancer but completed successful treatment, reassuring markets about his health and ability to continue in office. This disclosure temporarily lowered short-term resignation odds as he declared himself healthy and resumed official duties.
Netanyahu announces successful treatment for early-stage prostate cancer
June 30 dips to 5%2%
Netanyahu revealed he underwent targeted radiation therapy for a small malignant tumor detected after prostate surgery, confirming his good health. This disclosure alleviated some concerns about his ability to continue in office, reducing short-term resignation odds.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra‑Orthodox teen killed in protest bus accident
December 31 jumps to 46%5%
Prime Minister Netanyahu called for restraint following a protest where a bus ran over a 14‑year‑old ultra‑Orthodox boy, intensifying political pressure over the draft law and boosting speculation that the controversy could force his resignation.
Netanyahu reveals he quietly underwent treatment for early-stage prostate cancer
June 30 dips to 5%1%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced he had been treated for early-stage prostate cancer, exposing personal vulnerability and temporarily lowering short-term resignation odds as he declared himself healthy.
Netanyahu reveals successful treatment for early-stage prostate cancer
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly disclosed that he had undergone successful radiation therapy for early-stage prostate cancer, exposing a personal vulnerability that briefly raised questions about his health and political future.
Plea deal talks begin amid Netanyahu's corruption trial and potential 2026 exit
June 30 rises to 7%1%
Preliminary plea deal discussions between Netanyahu's legal team and prosecutors increased speculation about his possible resignation or removal before the end of 2026, slightly boosting market odds for an exit.
Netanyahu reveals successful treatment for early-stage prostate cancer
Netanyahu publicly disclosed he had early-stage prostate cancer but completed successful treatment, reassuring markets about his health and ability to continue in office, which stabilized resignation probabilities.
Netanyahu’s wife’s retouched images spark ethics debate
December 31 rises to 45%4%
The revelation that official government photos of Netanyahu’s wife were heavily retouched raised ethical concerns and public debate, potentially undermining Netanyahu’s image. This event occurred during a period of low resignation probability for May 31 and June 30 outcomes.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite earlier criticism
December 31 rises to 42%1%
Netanyahu reversed his earlier stance and agreed to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace aimed at overseeing Gaza ceasefire and reconstruction. This move showed his continued active role in regional peace efforts, supporting market confidence in his political longevity through mid-2026.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump-led Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the Board of Peace, despite previous criticism, signaled his continued political engagement and leadership role in regional peace efforts, reducing near-term expectations of resignation by May 31 and June 30.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Netanyahu's approval of the largest natural gas export deal in Israeli history strengthened his position as a regional energy power and contributed to regional stability, which likely reduced immediate resignation speculation, reflected in stable or slightly lower short-term resignation probabilities.
Retouched photos of Sara Netanyahu spark ethics controversy
May 31 dips to 1%2%
The revelation that official images of Netanyahu’s wife were heavily edited raised questions about the administration’s transparency, further eroding confidence and pushing the May‑31 price down to near‑zero levels.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
June 30 dips to 6%1%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, highlighting his ongoing leadership in complex peace efforts. This engagement suggested Netanyahu was not stepping down imminently, contributing to declining market odds for early resignation.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in West Bank
December 31 dips to 39%2%
Netanyahu held a security cabinet meeting to address escalating settler violence in the West Bank, reflecting internal security challenges. This event underscored ongoing political pressures but did not indicate imminent resignation, influencing market sentiment downward.
Opposition leaders Bennett and Lapid form joint party to challenge Netanyahu
December 31 dips to 40%4%
Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a joint party to contest the 2026 elections, consolidating opposition forces and increasing political pressure on Netanyahu, which was reflected in declining market confidence in his tenure lasting through the year-end.
Netanyahu orders strikes on Hezbollah amid regional tensions
December 31 dips to 41%2%
Netanyahu’s directive for vigorous strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon amid ongoing regional conflict underscored his active leadership role, reducing speculation about imminent resignation and stabilizing market prices.
Ofer Golan, Netanyahu's personal adviser, announces resignation
Golan stepped down after being indicted on witness intimidation charges related to 2019 harassment of a key witness in Netanyahu's criminal trial, damaging Netanyahu's credibility and increasing market speculation about his potential removal.
Netanyahu's longtime adviser Ofer Golan resigns amid witness intimidation charges
December 31 dips to 41%2%
Ofer Golan, Netanyahu's personal adviser and spokesperson, resigned following indictment on witness intimidation related to Netanyahu's criminal trial. This resignation highlighted internal pressures and legal challenges facing Netanyahu, increasing market speculation about his potential resignation by December 31, 2026.
Ofer Golan, Netanyahu's personal adviser, announces resignation
December 31 rises to 46%3%
Golan stepped down after being indicted on witness intimidation charges related to 2019 harassment of a key witness in Netanyahu's criminal trial, damaging Netanyahu's credibility and increasing market speculation about his potential removal.
Netanyahu aide Ofer Golan resigns amid witness intimidation charges
December 31 dips to 41%2%
Golan, Netanyahu's personal adviser and spokesperson, stepped down after being indicted on witness intimidation charges related to 2019 harassment of a key witness in Netanyahu's criminal trial. This scandal damaged Netanyahu's credibility and increased market speculation about his potential removal.
Netanyahu's personal adviser Ofer Golan resigns amid witness intimidation charges
December 31 dips to 41%2%
Ofer Golan, Netanyahu's spokesperson and media strategist, stepped down after being indicted on witness intimidation charges related to a 2019 court case, adding to internal political pressures and uncertainty about Netanyahu's leadership.
Israel's ruling coalition proposes early elections amid ultra-Orthodox anger at Netanyahu
June 30 plunges to 3%17%
The coalition submitted a dissolution proposal due to ultra-Orthodox parties' dissatisfaction with Netanyahu over conscription exemptions. This increased pressure on Netanyahu's position.
Netanyahu requests postponement of trial testimony citing security reasons
December 31 dips to 41%2%
Netanyahu’s repeated requests to delay his corruption trial testimony for security reasons amid ongoing conflicts suggested his intent to maintain leadership, impacting market expectations of resignation.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announces $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 45%4%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional position and signaling political stability. This positive development likely reduced short-term resignation expectations, as Netanyahu demonstrated effective leadership in regional energy and diplomacy.
Longtime Netanyahu adviser Ofer Golan resigns from Prime Minister's Office amid Qatargate investigation
May 31 plunges to 3%24%
This legal and political scandal further weakened Netanyahu's inner circle, contributing to the market's downward trend.
Netanyahu's aide Ofer Golan resigns amid Qatargate witness intimidation charges
Longtime Netanyahu adviser Ofer Golan resigned from the PMO after being indicted on charges of witness intimidation related to Netanyahu's 2019 criminal trial. This legal development may have contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's position.
Netanyahu adviser Ofer Golan resigns from PMO amid Qatargate charges
December 31 rises to 43%3%
Longtime adviser Ofer Golan resigned from Netanyahu's office after being indicted on witness intimidation charges related to the 2019 criminal trial, adding to the erosion of Netanyahu's inner circle.
Longtime Netanyahu adviser Ofer Golan resigns from Prime Minister's Office
The resignation of a key adviser amid ongoing political turmoil signaled further weakening of Netanyahu’s inner circle and increased perceptions of instability in his government.
Netanyahu struggles to convert military gains into political success amid Iran war
December 31 dips to 40%3%
Despite military operations against Iran, Netanyahu’s political standing weakened as he failed to secure decisive victories, leading to slipping approval ratings and increased election risks.
Netanyahu signals readiness to resume war amid ceasefire with Iran
December 31 rises to 41%1%
Netanyahu stated Israel is maintaining the ceasefire with Iran but continues strikes in Lebanon and is ready to resume war if necessary. This stance reflected ongoing conflict pressures and political challenges, sustaining market doubts about his tenure.
Netanyahu objects to US‑appointed Gaza oversight board
June 30 rises to 7%1%
Israel’s objection to the White House’s Gaza board signaled a breakdown in US‑Israel coordination, raising the prospect of a political showdown that could force Netanyahu’s resignation, lifting the June 30 price from 6% to 7% as the market reassessed short‑term risk.
Netanyahu’s corruption trial resumes in Jerusalem court
December 31 dips to 41%4%
Netanyahu’s long‑running corruption trial resumed after the emergency was lifted, renewing media focus on his legal jeopardy. The restart coincided with a brief dip in the “December 31” market (mid‑40s) and kept the “June 30” probability near single‑digit levels.
Israel approves appointment of new Mossad chief, signaling government continuity
December 31 dips to 44%1%
The approval of Roman Gofman as new Mossad chief by Netanyahu's government indicated ongoing governance and no immediate resignation, contributing to market stabilization in Netanyahu's tenure odds.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza
December 31 rises to 42%3%
Netanyahu agreed to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire implementation, signaling cooperation but also exposing him to criticism from far-right allies, affecting political stability perceptions.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 dips to 40%2%
US envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, emphasizing his central role in regional peace efforts and diminishing speculation about his stepping down. This corresponded with a decline in the December 31 outcome price to 40%.
Netanyahu under fire for Iran ceasefire failure
December 31 dips to 36%4%
The sudden announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire brokered without Netanyahu's knowledge triggered massive public and political backlash, with opposition leaders demanding his resignation.
Netanyahu faces criticism over Iran ceasefire and military setbacks
December 31 plunges to 36%17%
Following a surprise ceasefire with Iran brokered without his input, Netanyahu faced public and political criticism for perceived failures in military campaigns, increasing doubts about his leadership and impacting market confidence.
Opposition accuses Netanyahu of failing war goals after Iran ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 48%5%
On April 9, 2026, opposition leaders publicly accused Netanyahu of failing to achieve war objectives following a ceasefire with Iran, increasing political pressure and public dissatisfaction with his leadership, which influenced market sentiment.
Cease‑fire with Iran announced, sparking criticism of Netanyahu’s war strategy
June 30 drops to 5%8%
A surprise cease‑fire with Iran was announced, undermining Netanyahu’s war narrative and prompting a sharp drop in the “June 30” market to single‑digit levels (around 5 %). Traders saw the cease‑fire as a potential catalyst for his removal.
Netanyahu criticized for Iran war failures and ceasefire brokered without his input
December 31 drops to 35%9%
In April 2026, Netanyahu faced public and political criticism for the abrupt ceasefire with Iran and perceived military failures, which eroded support and increased doubts about his leadership, influencing market sentiment downward.
Netanyahu criticized for Iran ceasefire and military failures
December 31 dips to 40%4%
Following a surprise ceasefire with Iran brokered without Netanyahu's full involvement, opposition leaders and public criticism intensified, raising doubts about Netanyahu's leadership and increasing pressure for his resignation.
Netanyahu faces backlash over Iran ceasefire and war outcomes
December 31 drops to 40%10%
Following the surprise ceasefire with Iran brokered without Netanyahu's full involvement, opposition leaders criticized his war strategy and called for his resignation. This political backlash contributed to declining market confidence in Netanyahu's ability to remain in office through the year-end.
Israeli opposition leaders criticize Netanyahu over ceasefire deal with Iran
December 31 plunges to 35%15%
Opposition figures like Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett condemned Netanyahu's handling of a ceasefire deal with Iran, intensifying political pressure and public dissatisfaction, which contributed to market declines in Netanyahu's survival odds.
Israel greets Iran ceasefire with unease, opposition criticizes Netanyahu
December 31 dips to 40%4%
Following a fragile ceasefire with Iran, Netanyahu faced sharp criticism from opposition leaders accusing him of failing to meet war goals, increasing political pressure and uncertainty about his future leadership.
Iran ceasefire announced, Netanyahu faces sharp domestic criticism
December 31 dips to 41%2%
The ceasefire with Iran was seen as a strategic setback by many Israelis, leading to increased calls for Netanyahu's resignation and a decline in public support reflected in the market.
Netanyahu supports US-Iran ceasefire but excludes Lebanon from truce
December 31 dips to 41%2%
Netanyahu endorsed the US-brokered ceasefire with Iran but maintained military operations in Lebanon, reflecting ongoing conflict and political challenges. This mixed stance contributed to continued uncertainty about his political future.
Israeli public and opposition leaders criticize Netanyahu over Iran ceasefire deal
December 31 drops to 40%7%
Following a ceasefire brokered without Israel’s direct involvement, Netanyahu faced severe domestic criticism and calls for resignation from opposition figures, reflecting eroding political support and public dissatisfaction.
Widespread backlash against Netanyahu over Iran ceasefire deal
December 31 dips to 40%4%
Following a ceasefire with Iran brokered without Israeli input, Netanyahu faced intense domestic criticism and international isolation, undermining his political standing and causing market doubts about his tenure.
Netanyahu announces aide who made racist remarks will be replaced
June 30 drops to 5%9%
After backlash from his own party and opposition, Netanyahu reversed his earlier stance and committed to replacing his embattled aide, reflecting political pressure and impacting market sentiment negatively.
Israel supports US-Iran ceasefire but excludes Lebanon, sparking backlash
December 31 dips to 42%2%
Netanyahu backed the US-Iran ceasefire but excluded Lebanon, causing domestic and international criticism and opposition calls for his resignation, increasing political pressure.
Netanyahu declares military successes against Iran, asserts changing balance of power
In a statement, Netanyahu highlighted recent military strikes against Iran and claimed significant achievements shifting the regional balance of power, aiming to bolster public support and his political standing amid ongoing conflict.
Trump warns Iran of further strikes during Netanyahu visit to Florida
June 30 dips to 6%1%
During Netanyahu’s visit to Florida, Trump warned Iran against reconstituting its nuclear program, signaling continued U.S.-Israel cooperation. Netanyahu’s presence and active diplomacy suggested political continuity, dampening market expectations of his resignation by June 30.
Netanyahu hints at holding off elections to pass 2026 budget
December 31 jumps to 44%8%
Netanyahu indicated a desire to delay elections by passing the state budget, aiming to maintain power despite political challenges, which influenced market perceptions of his staying in office through year-end.
Netanyahu asks embattled spokesman Ziv Agmon to remain until replacement found
December 31 drops to 43%6%
Despite Agmon's resignation offer after racist remarks leaked, Netanyahu requested he stay until a replacement was appointed, reflecting internal party tensions and impacting market perceptions of leadership stability.
Poll finds three‑quarters of Israelis want Netanyahu to step down
December 31 plunges to 35%16%
A Channel 12 poll showed 75 % of Israelis now believed Netanyahu should resign, pushing the December‑31 market down to the mid‑40s for a brief period before stabilising later in the month.
Netanyahu Reverses Decision, Announces Replacement of Aide Ziv Agmon
June 30 dips to 5%1%
Following severe backlash from his own Likud party and the opposition, Netanyahu reversed his decision and announced that Agmon would be replaced, resolving a brief internal coalition crisis.
Netanyahu asks embattled spokesman to remain until replacement found
December 31 drops to 6%7%
Despite backlash over racist remarks, Netanyahu requested his spokesman Ziv Agmon to stay in office until a replacement was found, reflecting internal party tensions and affecting market perceptions of Netanyahu's control over his team.
Netanyahu Asks Embattled Spokesperson Ziv Agmon to Remain Temporarily
December 31 drops to 36%12%
Netanyahu initially asked his spokesperson and chief of staff, Ziv Agmon, to stay in office despite leaked racist remarks, drawing intense criticism from both opposition and coalition members.
Netanyahu faces opposition calls for resignation after Iran ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 50%7%
Opposition leaders criticized Netanyahu for failing to achieve war objectives and called for his immediate resignation following the ceasefire with Iran, increasing political pressure on his premiership.
Netanyahu asks embattled spokesman to remain until replacement found
June 30 dips to 6%1%
Despite controversy over racist remarks, Netanyahu requested Ziv Agmon to stay until a replacement was found, signaling internal challenges but no immediate resignation, which kept market probabilities low for near-term departure.
Israel launches large‑scale operation to locate last Gaza hostage
June 30 rises to 7%1%
The launch of a major search for the final hostage signaled a potential end to the first phase of the cease‑fire, but also underscored ongoing military activity, causing a modest rise in the June‑30 price after a low point.
Longtime Netanyahu Adviser Ofer Golan Resigns Amid Qatargate Investigation
December 31 dips to 39%3%
Ofer Golan, a senior Netanyahu adviser, resigned amid legal troubles linked to the Qatargate scandal, further weakening Netanyahu's inner circle and diminishing market confidence in his ability to remain PM through year-end.
Israel revokes licenses of humanitarian groups in Gaza, raising tensions
December 31 drops to 38%6%
Israel's decision to revoke licenses of over three dozen humanitarian organizations in Gaza escalated tensions and complicated the ceasefire's next phase. This development contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future amid ongoing conflict management challenges.
Trump warns Iran of further strikes during Netanyahu’s Florida visit
June 30 dips to 5%2%
During a high‑profile meeting with Netanyahu, Trump’s warning to Iran underscored regional tensions and suggested Netanyahu’s foreign‑policy agenda was increasingly tied to U.S. leadership, adding uncertainty to his domestic standing and pulling the June‑30 price down further.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 jumps to 42%7%
Top US envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, including disarming Hamas. This diplomatic pressure influenced market sentiment, reflecting challenges Netanyahu faces in balancing security and political stability.
Winter rain floods Gaza camps as Netanyahu heads for US meeting
December 31 rises to 43%3%
Netanyahu's travel to the US for talks amid humanitarian challenges in Gaza highlighted his active role in diplomacy and crisis response, factors that likely kept resignation odds lower.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 dips to 38%3%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional energy position and signaling his ongoing leadership and influence, which likely decreased market expectations of his stepping down soon.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire oversight
December 31 jumps to 46%5%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the US-led Board of Peace signaled his commitment to the Gaza ceasefire process and regional diplomacy, reinforcing his position and reducing resignation expectations.
Israeli parliament passes budget, delaying early elections
December 31 surges to 50%15%
Parliament passed a budget that temporarily staved off early elections, giving a modest boost to the December‑31 market which rose back toward 50 % by early April.
Polls show Netanyahu's Likud party losing support after Iran ceasefire
December 31 drops to 42%11%
Polls released showed Netanyahu's Likud party losing seats and public support declining following an unpopular ceasefire with Iran, increasing political risks and contributing to market declines in his staying probability.
Netanyahu orders expansion of military operations in southern Lebanon
December 31 dips to 40%4%
Netanyahu ordered the Israeli military to expand operations in southern Lebanon to counter Hezbollah rocket fire, signaling continued military engagement and hardline stance. This contributed to political tensions and uncertainty about his leadership stability.
Israeli Parliament Passes 2026 State Budget, Averting Early Elections
June 30 drops to 7%7%
The Knesset passed the annual budget in an overnight session, removing the immediate threat of automatic government dissolution and ensuring Netanyahu's coalition can complete its term until the fall.
Netanyahu grants first US media interview since Iran war launch
December 31 rises to 40%2%
Netanyahu's rare interview with Newsmax CEO Chris Ruddy focused on military and political strategy regarding Iran, reinforcing his active leadership role amid ongoing conflict, which temporarily supported his political standing.
Israeli parliament passes 2026 budget, averting early elections
December 31 dips to 43%4%
The Knesset approved the state budget, allowing Netanyahu's government to complete its term until the fall elections. This political stability reduced immediate risks of Netanyahu stepping down, influencing market prices downward for his exit probability.
Israeli Parliament Approves 2026 State Budget, Averting Snap Elections
June 30 dips to 9%3%
The Knesset passed the 2026 state budget in a marathon overnight session, meeting the March 31 deadline. This crucial legislative victory prevented the automatic dissolution of the government and secured Netanyahu's position, driving down the probability of an early exit.
Israeli parliament approves 2026 state budget, avoiding early elections
December 31 drops to 36%14%
The Knesset passed the defense-heavy budget in a marathon session, allowing Netanyahu's government to continue until the scheduled elections, temporarily reducing political uncertainty.
Israel’s parliament passes budget, allowing Netanyahu to avoid early elections
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
The Knesset passed the 2026 state budget in an overnight marathon session, removing the automatic trigger for early elections. Traders saw the budget’s passage as a major boost to Netanyahu’s chances of staying in office, sending the “June 30” probability sharply down from 50 % to 13 % over the next few days.
Netanyahu coalition passes 2026 state budget, averting early elections
December 31 jumps to 53%11%
Netanyahu's coalition narrowly passed the state budget just before the March 31 deadline, preventing a snap election and temporarily stabilizing his government, which caused a partial rebound in market confidence about his staying power.
Israeli parliament approves 2026 state budget, averting snap election
December 31 jumps to 44%5%
The Knesset passed a defense-heavy 2026 state budget, allowing Netanyahu's government to avoid early elections and maintain power, temporarily stabilizing his political position and reducing immediate risks of resignation or removal.
Israeli parliament approves 2026 state budget, averting early election
June 30 drops to 6%7%
Reuters announced that the Knesset approved the 2026 state budget, averting a snap election. The passage removed the immediate threat of government collapse, causing the June‑30 market odds to slide to single‑digit levels.
Former PM Naftali Bennett vows to replace Netanyahu, refuses to join any Netanyahu-led government
December 31 drops to 28%9%
In March 2026, opposition leader Naftali Bennett publicly committed to unseating Netanyahu, signaling strong political opposition and reducing market confidence in Netanyahu's long-term hold on office.
Opposition leader Naftali Bennett vows to replace Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 44%8%
Bennett publicly declared intent to replace Netanyahu and avoid any government led by him, signaling strong opposition momentum ahead of elections and increasing pressure on Netanyahu's tenure.
Former PM Bennett vows to replace Netanyahu
June 30 plunges to 10%16%
Former premier Naftali Bennett publicly pledged to replace Netanyahu, signalling a credible leadership challenge. The statement coincided with a sharp 11‑point drop in the June 30 market on March 9‑11, reflecting rising doubts about Netanyahu’s tenure.
Naftali Bennett Vows to Replace Netanyahu and Stay Out of His Government
June 30 rises to 14%3%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly pledged to replace Netanyahu and refused to join any future coalition led by him, highlighting the growing opposition alliance ahead of the budget deadline.
Netanyahu races to pass state budget to avoid snap elections amid war and poor polls
December 31 jumps to 44%5%
Facing poor polling and a war with Iran that failed to boost his standing, Netanyahu pushed to pass the 2026 state budget by the March 31 deadline to avoid automatic government dissolution and snap elections, temporarily stabilizing his position.
Netanyahu's acting chief of staff resigns after racist remarks controversy
December 31 drops to 39%5%
The resignation of Netanyahu's spokesman Ziv Agmon amid racist remarks and internal criticism highlighted turmoil within Netanyahu's administration, undermining his political standing and contributing to market uncertainty.
Netanyahu ally Yuli Edelstein resigns as Knesset Speaker amid Supreme Court pressure
Edelstein's resignation weakened Netanyahu's parliamentary control, signaling political instability and increasing doubts about Netanyahu's hold on power, which negatively impacted the market's confidence in Netanyahu remaining PM by year-end.
Netanyahu spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns after leaked audio reveals scathing criticism of prime minister
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
The scandal damaged Netanyahu's regime reputation, contributing to the market's decline toward May 31 as confidence in Netanyahu's leadership eroded.
Netanyahu races to pass 2026 budget to avoid early elections
December 31 drops to 30%9%
Facing a coalition crisis and looming early elections, Netanyahu worked to pass the 2026 state budget by March 31, 2026, as failure would trigger automatic elections, increasing uncertainty about his tenure.
Netanyahu meets Trump to discuss Iran nuclear talks and Gaza ceasefire
December 31 rises to 39%3%
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump focused on Iran negotiations and advancing the Gaza ceasefire. The talks underscored Netanyahu's active role in regional diplomacy, temporarily stabilizing market expectations about his tenure.
Netanyahu seeks to avoid snap vote as Iran war gives no boost in polls
June 30 plunges to 14%21%
Reuters reported Netanyahu’s attempts to avoid a snap election while the Iran war failed to improve his poll numbers. The article underscored the growing political vulnerability of his government, prompting a sharp fall in the market’s Yes probability for the June 30 outcome from 50 % to the low‑20s.
Netanyahu asks spokesman who made racist remarks about Mizrahi Jews to remain in office
December 31 rises to 48%1%
Netanyahu initially asked Agmon to remain after leaked racist comments, reversing his earlier decision to replace him. This showed internal party turmoil and potential instability in Netanyahu's leadership.
Netanyahu seeks to avoid snap elections amid ongoing Iran war and budget struggles
December 31 surges to 49%19%
In March 2026, Netanyahu worked to pass the state budget and avoid early elections despite the ongoing war with Iran failing to improve his standing, reflecting political vulnerability and causing market uncertainty about his tenure.
Netanyahu’s spokesman resigns after leaked audio of scathing criticism
June 30 plunges to 12%38%
Leaked audio showed Netanyahu’s spokesperson insulting the premier, leading to Agmon’s resignation. The scandal contributed to a sharp drop in the June‑30 price (‑5 pts on Mar 2) as political instability grew.
Netanyahu’s spokesperson resigns after leaked audio slams premier
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
The resignation of Netanyahu’s spokesperson after a leaked audio criticizing the prime minister added internal pressure and fueled rumors of a possible ouster, coinciding with a sharp dip in the “June 30” probability from 50 % to 13 % in the days that followed.
Netanyahu races to pass budget to avoid early elections amid war and poor polls
Netanyahu sought to pass the state budget to avoid early elections he was likely to lose, as the war with Iran failed to boost his standing in polls, reflecting growing political vulnerability and market skepticism about his tenure.
Netanyahu spokesperson resigns after leaked audio criticizing premier
Netanyahu's spokesperson resigned following leaked audio with harsh criticism of Netanyahu's leadership and handling of the war, signaling internal dissent and weakening Netanyahu's political position, negatively impacting market sentiment.
Netanyahu aide Ziv Agmon resigns after racist remarks leak
December 31 plunges to 13%37%
Spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigned following publication of derogatory remarks about Likud lawmakers and Mizrahi Jews, sparking internal party backlash and calls for Netanyahu to step down.
Netanyahu's spokesperson resigns after leaked criticism calling Netanyahu 'finished'
December 31 drops to 47%9%
Leaked remarks from Netanyahu's spokesperson criticized the prime minister as 'old' and 'finished,' leading to the spokesperson's resignation and highlighting internal dissent. This event increased political pressure on Netanyahu and contributed to market uncertainty about his future.
Netanyahu's spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns after leaked racist remarks
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Ziv Agmon, Netanyahu's spokesperson and acting chief of staff, resigned following leaked audio revealing scathing criticism of Netanyahu and racist comments about Mizrahi Jews. This event increased political pressure on Netanyahu, negatively impacting market confidence in his tenure, especially for the June 30 outcome, as it highlighted internal instability.
Netanyahu’s spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns after leaked racist remarks
December 31 dips to 40%4%
The resignation of Netanyahu’s spokesperson following leaked derogatory comments about Mizrahi lawmakers intensified political backlash and highlighted internal instability within Netanyahu’s administration, undermining his leadership image.
Netanyahu Spokesperson Ziv Agmon Resigns Following Leaked Audio Scandal
December 31 dips to 46%2%
Netanyahu's spokesperson and acting chief of staff, Ziv Agmon, resigned after leaked private messages revealed him making racist remarks about Mizrahi Likud lawmakers and criticizing Netanyahu's political survival tactics.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in West Bank
December 31 rises to 51%3%
Netanyahu met with security officials to address escalating settler violence in the West Bank, demonstrating his active leadership amid security challenges. This reinforced market views that he was unlikely to resign soon, contributing to price stability for the December 31 outcome.
Polymarket analysis highlights low market pricing of Netanyahu's imminent departure
December 31 drops to 50%6%
Despite social media rumors about Netanyahu's death or resignation, Polymarket's contracts showed only a 4-5% probability of him leaving office imminently, indicating market skepticism about his near-term exit.
Reports debunk claims Netanyahu replaced by interim prime minister
June 30 plunges to 24%26%
In March 2026, misinformation circulated about Netanyahu being replaced by an interim prime minister, but official sources confirmed he remained in office, reinforcing market confidence in his tenure continuing at least through mid-2026.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran talks
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
A high‑profile meeting with Donald Trump highlighted Netanyahu’s diplomatic clout but also underscored ongoing security concerns, causing a modest rise in the May‑31 probability as analysts speculated about potential political fallout.
Settler violence surge prompts cabinet meeting on West Bank security
December 31 drops to 39%5%
Escalating settler attacks and international criticism forced Netanyahu to convene a security cabinet, highlighting internal governance challenges and further weakening his perceived stability, nudging the December‑31 price lower.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, causing tension with US and Iran
December 31 drops to 31%5%
Netanyahu's decision to attack Iran's South Pars gas field, despite US disapproval, underscored his assertive leadership in regional security, likely reducing market expectations of his resignation soon.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field amid ongoing Iran conflict
June 30 drops to 10%14%
Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field escalated the conflict, leading to Iranian retaliatory strikes and international concern. The event intensified scrutiny on Netanyahu's leadership and strategy, contributing to market volatility.
Netanyahu says Iran is being decimated, denies dragging U.S. into war
June 30 drops to 12%8%
Netanyahu emphasized military successes against Iran and denied accusations of dragging the U.S. into conflict, reinforcing his leadership image and lowering resignation odds.
Netanyahu holds first in-person news conference since start of Iran war
December 31 drops to 44%6%
Netanyahu addressed the public regarding the war with Iran, emphasizing military efforts and regime change goals. This event was part of ongoing efforts to maintain political support amid war pressures, but did not significantly improve market confidence in his tenure.
Netanyahu meets Trump, discusses Iran talks and Gaza progress
December 31 jumps to 46%7%
Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump to discuss Iran and Gaza highlighted his active role in regional security and diplomacy, which likely contributed to market confidence in his continued tenure.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, Trump and Netanyahu show public disagreement
December 31 rises to 44%4%
Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field led to a public split between Trump and Netanyahu on the attack’s approval. This discord raised questions about Netanyahu’s political standing but did not indicate imminent resignation, reflected in market price volatility.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, causing regional tensions
June 30 plunges to 20%30%
Israel launched an attack on Iran's South Pars gas field, escalating tensions and causing a rift between Netanyahu and Trump. This military action raised concerns about regional stability and Netanyahu's political future, reflected in market price volatility.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite prior criticism
December 31 rises to 48%4%
Netanyahu reversed his earlier stance and agreed to join the Trump-led Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire implementation, signaling continued political engagement and stability. This announcement contributed to a price rebound for the December 31 outcome from 44% to 48%.
Opposition leaders criticize Netanyahu over war outcomes but cautiously support ceasefire talks
December 31 drops to 43%7%
Opposition figures condemned Netanyahu's handling of war efforts and called for his resignation, though some supported his initiative for ceasefire talks with Lebanon. This mixed political pressure contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure.
Netanyahu death rumours revived by AI‑deepfake video
December 31 drops to 40%11%
A viral AI‑deepfake video claiming Netanyahu had died sparked a wave of misinformation. Fact‑checking agencies debunked the claim, but the episode added uncertainty about his continuity, pushing the December‑31 contract down to 40 % on 2026‑03‑15 and contributing to the March‑5 to March‑7 swing (+11 pts).
Netanyahu debunks death rumors with viral video amid Iran conflict
December 31 dips to 44%1%
Netanyahu appeared in a video alongside US Ambassador Mike Huckabee to refute false death rumors, mocking AI manipulation theories. This reassured markets about his continued leadership amid rising regional tensions with Iran.
Israel launches surprise attack on Gaza, postponing Netanyahu's corruption trial testimony
June 30 plunges to 20%30%
The outbreak of renewed conflict delayed Netanyahu's trial proceedings and intensified political tensions, contributing to a decline in market confidence for his resignation by mid-2026.
Israel launches surprise attack on Gaza Strip ending ceasefire
December 31 dips to 36%4%
On March 18, 2026, Israel launched a surprise attack on Gaza, ending the ceasefire and escalating conflict. Netanyahu's leadership during this period was under intense scrutiny, causing market volatility with a trough at 36% for December 31 outcome.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 drops to 40%7%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing international pressure on his government. This diplomatic push affected market expectations about Netanyahu's political future amid ongoing conflict management challenges.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 jumps to 53%14%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, highlighting ongoing security and diplomatic challenges. Netanyahu's cautious approach signaled his continued political control, influencing market sentiment against near-term resignation.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
June 30 drops to 10%8%
A teenage protester was killed when a bus ran over him during demonstrations against the ultra‑Orthodox draft law, intensifying political pressure on Netanyahu and further lowering the June‑30 and May‑31 odds.
Trump says he ‘insisted’ on continuing U.S.–Iran talks with Netanyahu
June 30 dips to 10%3%
Trump’s public statement that he pressed Netanyahu to keep Iran negotiations alive suggested a possible shift in regional dynamics, dampening confidence in Netanyahu’s leverage and pulling the June‑30 price down further.
Fact-checks debunk viral rumors of Netanyahu's death amid Iran war
December 31 plunges to 13%37%
Rumors claiming Netanyahu had died or been replaced by an AI-generated version circulated widely but were debunked by officials and fact-checkers, confirming Netanyahu was alive and active, which helped stabilize market sentiment against an immediate exit.
Netanyahu dismisses rumors of his death with a video
June 30 jumps to 20%8%
Netanyahu released a video jokingly denying rumors of his death, countering speculation about his status and stabilizing market confidence in his continuation as Prime Minister.
Israeli legal office says pardoning Netanyahu now would be improper
December 31 drops to 36%8%
A key Israeli legal office stated Netanyahu's pardon request was unprecedented and should only be granted if he resigns, confesses, or is convicted. This diminished chances of a pardon without resignation, impacting market views on his staying in office.
Israeli legal office rejects Netanyahu pardon without resignation or conviction
A key Israeli judicial office stated Netanyahu should only be pardoned if he resigns, confesses, or is convicted, increasing legal pressure on him and raising doubts about his political future, negatively impacting market confidence in his tenure.
Retouched photos of Sara Netanyahu spark ethics controversy
June 30 drops to 10%9%
The revelation that official images of Netanyahu’s wife were heavily retouched sparked a public ethics debate, eroding confidence in the administration and nudging the June‑30 and May‑31 probabilities lower.
Israeli legal office rules Netanyahu pardon improper without resignation or conviction
December 31 drops to 43%7%
A key Israeli legal office stated that Netanyahu's pardon request was unprecedented and should only be considered if he resigns, confesses, or is convicted. This legal stance diminished expectations of a pardon and maintained pressure on Netanyahu's political future.
Netanyahu announces $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 dips to 40%2%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional energy position. This major policy achievement likely bolstered confidence in his political stability and reduced resignation expectations.
Netanyahu holds first press conference since war began, asserts strength against Iran and Hezbollah
June 30 plunges to 25%25%
Netanyahu publicly declared Israel was 'crushing' Iran and Hezbollah, projecting confidence and control. This bolstered perceptions of his political strength, reducing likelihood of resignation by mid-2026.
Netanyahu issues veiled threat to Iran's new supreme leader amid ongoing war
December 31 rises to 39%3%
Netanyahu publicly threatened Iran's new supreme leader while acknowledging uncertainty about regime collapse, signaling continued military pressure but political risks. This heightened tensions and influenced market perceptions of Netanyahu's political stability.
Netanyahu admits uncertainty over Iran regime change amid ongoing conflict
December 31 jumps to 50%7%
Netanyahu publicly acknowledged doubts about regime change in Iran despite military efforts, reflecting challenges in his strategic goals and possibly affecting market confidence in his political future.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on settler violence in the West Bank
December 31 rises to 44%4%
Netanyahu's meeting with security officials to address settler violence demonstrated his ongoing governance and crisis management, which likely supported market confidence in his tenure continuing past mid-2026.
Netanyahu faces mounting opposition as Naftali Bennett vows to replace him
December 31 drops to 39%5%
Former prime minister Naftali Bennett publicly vowed to replace Netanyahu and stay out of any government led by him, signaling intensified political opposition ahead of elections and contributing to market declines in Netanyahu's tenure odds.
Netanyahu joins Trump's Board of Peace for Gaza peace process
May 31 plunges to 1%25%
Netanyahu accepted an invitation to join Trump's Board of Peace, a shift from his previous criticism of the board's composition, signaling a potential change in his approach to the Gaza ceasefire.
Netanyahu claims elimination of Iran's supreme leader amid ongoing conflict
December 31 jumps to 50%5%
Netanyahu announced the killing of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei during joint US-Israeli operations, escalating the conflict and reinforcing his hardline stance. This military action increased tensions but did not lead to Netanyahu stepping down, affecting market confidence in his political survival.
Netanyahu announces ongoing military campaign against Iran
December 31 jumps to 52%8%
Netanyahu declared a fateful campaign for Israel's existence against Iran, emphasizing military operations. This reinforced his strong leadership stance, temporarily stabilizing market confidence in his position through March.
Netanyahu issues further statement amid ongoing political challenges
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Another statement from Netanyahu aimed to reassure supporters and address criticism, but it did not reverse the downward trend in market confidence regarding his remaining in office through 2026.
Netanyahu declares ongoing campaign to protect Israel amid Iran conflict
December 31 rises to 40%1%
In a public statement, Netanyahu framed the conflict with Iran as existential and justified ongoing military actions, aiming to rally public support and assert leadership during the multi-front war.
Netanyahu meets with U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran talks
June 30 plunges to 24%26%
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump focused on continuing U.S. negotiations with Iran, emphasizing limits on ballistic missiles and militant support. This diplomatic engagement reinforced Netanyahu's active leadership role, reducing market expectations of his imminent resignation.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, causing US-Israel strategic tensions
June 30 plunges to 23%27%
Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field led to a public disagreement between Netanyahu and Trump, raising questions about their coordination in the ongoing conflict. This event increased regional instability and may have affected perceptions of Netanyahu's political standing.
Israel recovers remains of last hostage in Gaza, Netanyahu calls it an achievement
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
The recovery of the last Israeli hostage's remains was hailed by Netanyahu as a significant achievement, reinforcing his leadership during the Gaza ceasefire process. This event saw a sharp price drop for the June 30 outcome from 50% to 13%, indicating reduced market expectations for Netanyahu's resignation by mid-2026.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
June 30 drops to 13%13%
The landmark gas deal was hailed as a major economic win but also raised questions about Netanyahu’s long‑term political calculus, prompting traders to reassess his resignation risk, especially for the June‑30 outcome.
Israel objects to US‑announced Gaza oversight committee
Israel publicly objected to a White House announcement of leaders who would oversee the next steps in Gaza, highlighting a split with the United States and fueling speculation about Netanyahu’s political stability.
Sharp market slide follows ICC prosecutor’s renewed focus on Netanyahu
May 31 plunges to 3%24%
The International Criminal Court’s decision to revisit charges against Netanyahu heightened legal risk, prompting a steep decline for the May‑31 outcome as investors reassessed his political survivability.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 jumps to 51%10%
Netanyahu announced the landmark gas agreement, signalling strong economic leadership and bolstering his political standing, which lifted the probability of a December‑31 resignation to 51% from 41%.
Winter rain floods Gaza camps as Netanyahu departs for US meeting
Severe flooding in Gaza camps highlighted humanitarian challenges, while Netanyahu’s departure for a US meeting on the ceasefire’s second phase underscored his reliance on external mediation, weakening perceptions of his autonomous authority.
Netanyahu spokesman Ziv Agmon resigns amid leaked racist remarks scandal
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Following internal and public pressure, Ziv Agmon resigned, signaling cracks within Netanyahu's inner circle and contributing to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's stability.
Netanyahu meets with U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran talks
June 30 plunges to 24%26%
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump focused on continuing U.S. negotiations with Iran and regional security. The meeting reinforced Netanyahu's active role in foreign policy, reducing market expectations of his resignation by mid-2026.
Netanyahu's war alliance with Trump faces test as Iran crisis widens
Netanyahu's close alignment with Trump in the military campaign against Iran faced challenges as the conflict dragged on without clear victory, increasing political pressure and uncertainty about his leadership.
Netanyahu delivers on ambition to topple Iran's leadership amid war
December 31 drops to 36%7%
Netanyahu launched Operation Roaring Lion targeting Iran's nuclear sites, aiming to bolster his image as a strong leader, but the war's prolonged nature and costs limited political gains.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 drops to 33%8%
Netanyahu's government initiated a major military operation to find the last hostage in Gaza, underscoring his active leadership in security matters and delaying any resignation speculation.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 40%2%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional energy position and potentially stabilizing relations. This positive development likely bolstered confidence in Netanyahu's continued leadership.
Polls show Netanyahu's Likud losing support amid unpopular Iran ceasefire
December 31 drops to 39%5%
Polls released in early March 2026 showed Netanyahu's Likud party losing votes following an unpopular temporary ceasefire with Iran, indicating declining public support and increasing political risk for Netanyahu.
Netanyahu-Trump meeting on Iran nuclear talks ends without deal
June 30 plunges to 3%47%
Netanyahu met with Trump at the White House but no definitive agreement was reached on Iran nuclear talks, with Trump insisting negotiations continue but Netanyahu pushing for missile and militant group limits.
President Herzog Facilitates Preliminary Plea Deal Talks in Netanyahu Corruption Trial
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Israeli President Isaac Herzog initiated preliminary talks between Netanyahu's legal team and state prosecutors to explore a plea deal, which could potentially lead to his resignation or removal before the end of 2026.
Hamas spokesman killed in Gaza strike, cease‑fire tensions rise
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
The confirmed death of a senior Hamas figure heightened fears of renewed fighting, undermining confidence in the cease‑fire and pushing the June 30 price sharply down from 50% to 13% as the market saw a higher chance of a crisis forcing Netanyahu out.
Netanyahu to meet Trump in Washington on Iran talks
December 31 jumps to 51%11%
Netanyahu's scheduled meeting with Trump to discuss Iran nuclear negotiations underscored ongoing diplomatic challenges and the high-stakes nature of his leadership, affecting market confidence in his tenure.
United Torah Judaism rejoins Netanyahu's government after ceasefire collapse
The ultra-Orthodox party rejoined Netanyahu's coalition following the collapse of a ceasefire agreement, temporarily stabilizing his parliamentary support. This event caused a brief increase in market confidence regarding Netanyahu's political survival through mid-2026.
Netanyahu gives live interview debunking death rumors
December 31 plunges to 45%16%
Netanyahu appeared on Fox News in a live interview, addressing the regional conflict and dismissing rumors of his death, reinforcing his active leadership and countering misinformation that could destabilize his position.
Netanyahu meets US envoy to discuss Gaza ceasefire second phase and Iran
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Netanyahu met with US envoy Steve Witkoff to discuss advancing the Gaza ceasefire's second phase and Iran's threat, reinforcing his role in critical regional diplomacy. This meeting coincided with a sharp price drop for the June 30 outcome from 50% to 13%, reflecting market skepticism about Netanyahu stepping down soon.
Netanyahu meets US President Trump to discuss Iran talks
December 31 plunges to 23%27%
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump focused on Iran nuclear negotiations and regional security, reinforcing his active leadership role and reducing market expectations of near-term resignation.
Netanyahu Appears on Fox News to Debunk Widespread Death and Incapacitation Rumors
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Amid escalating military tensions with Iran, viral social media rumors claimed Netanyahu had died or was incapacitated. Netanyahu's live television appearance on Fox News successfully debunked these claims, stabilizing his leadership outlook.
Netanyahu's coalition faces instability as ultra-Orthodox party quits government
June 30 plunges to 18%32%
United Torah Judaism left Netanyahu's coalition over military conscription disputes, weakening his parliamentary majority and increasing political instability. This event contributed to market doubts about Netanyahu's ability to maintain power, affecting June 30 outcome prices.
Iran’s president declares full-scale war with West ahead of Netanyahu-Trump meeting
June 30 plunges to 20%30%
Iran’s president stated that Iran is in a full-scale war with the U.S., Israel, and Europe, escalating regional tensions just before Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump. This heightened geopolitical risk coincided with a sharp drop in the June 30 resignation probability from 50% to 20%.
Netanyahu makes public appearance amid Iranian missile strike claims
December 31 drops to 39%11%
Following Iranian missile strike claims targeting Netanyahu’s office, he appeared publicly at a missile strike site, reaffirming his leadership and commitment to security operations. This reassured markets about his continued tenure, though overall resignation odds continued to decline due to ongoing political challenges.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 50%11%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the US-led Board of Peace marked a shift from prior criticism, indicating engagement in peace process efforts and temporarily boosting confidence in his political stability.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to move into Gaza cease‑fire’s second phase
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Top U.S. diplomats pressed Netanyahu to advance the cease‑fire, raising expectations that the conflict would de‑escalate, which briefly lifted the June‑30 odds before the market reassessed the difficulty of implementation.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 dips to 40%2%
The military operation to find the last hostage in Gaza underscored Netanyahu's active leadership in security matters, which likely contributed to the market's decline in resignation probability.
Netanyahu issues official statement amid political tensions
Prime Minister Netanyahu made a public statement addressing ongoing political issues, which temporarily stabilized market sentiment but did not significantly alter expectations of his tenure ending by year-end.
Israel and US begin major air offensive against Iran
June 30 plunges to 26%24%
Israel launched a major air campaign against Iran, intensifying the regional war and increasing pressure on Netanyahu’s leadership. The heightened conflict contributed to a dip in the June‑30 contract (from 50 % on 2026‑03‑02 to 26 % on 2026‑03‑07).
Netanyahu announces $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 drops to 33%14%
The landmark gas deal was presented as an economic win for Netanyahu, but critics argued it diverted attention from domestic crises, leading the December 31 price to fall from 47% to 33% as market participants doubted its political durability.
Israel opens major air campaign against Iran
June 30 plunges to 18%32%
Israel launched a large‑scale offensive against Iran, intensifying the multi‑front war and raising doubts about Netanyahu’s political longevity, causing the June‑30 market to tumble from 50 % to the low‑20s within days.
Israel and US launch major military offensive against Iran
June 30 plunges to 21%29%
Netanyahu launched a major air campaign against Iran alongside the US, escalating regional conflict and increasing political pressure domestically, contributing to uncertainty about his political future and impacting market prices downward for earlier resignation dates.
Israel and U.S. begin joint air offensive against Iran
December 31 rises to 42%3%
Israel and the United States launched a joint air campaign against Iran, marking an escalation that amplified concerns over Netanyahu’s war leadership and pushed the Yes probability to 42 % (from 39 % a week earlier).
Israel and US launch major air campaign against Iran
December 31 drops to 44%6%
Netanyahu launched a major air campaign against Iran alongside the US on February 28, 2026, escalating regional conflict and increasing internal political pressures amid unpopular multi-front wars, affecting perceptions of his political stability.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in West Bank
December 31 dips to 40%3%
Netanyahu met with security officials to address escalating settler violence in the West Bank, a politically sensitive issue that increased domestic tensions and pressure on his leadership, influencing market sentiment.
Spokesman Ziv Agmon resigns amid leaked racist private messages
December 31 drops to 36%7%
Ziv Agmon resigned following leaked private messages containing racist remarks, intensifying political scandal around Netanyahu's office and further undermining confidence in his leadership.
Israel recovers remains of last hostage in Gaza, Netanyahu calls it an achievement
December 31 dips to 39%2%
The recovery of the last hostage’s remains was a significant milestone in the Gaza ceasefire process, reinforcing Netanyahu’s leadership and lowering resignation probabilities.
Netanyahu announces spokesperson replacement after Likud backlash
June 30 drops to 17%9%
Following criticism from his own party and opposition, Netanyahu reversed his initial decision to keep Ziv Agmon, announcing he would be replaced soon. This event reflected internal party tensions and affected market confidence in Netanyahu's political survival.
Netanyahu's spokesperson resigns amid leaked racist remarks
December 31 drops to 36%6%
The resignation of Netanyahu's spokesperson Ziv Agmon following leaked racist comments caused political controversy and highlighted internal tensions within Netanyahu's administration, contributing to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political stability.
Netanyahu spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns amid leaked private messages criticizing PM
December 31 plunges to 46%15%
Agmon resigned after audio recordings revealed scathing criticism of Netanyahu, including claims Netanyahu should have stepped away from politics after October 7. This caused a significant price drop to 46% on Jan 10, 2026.
Netanyahu's spokesman Ziv Agmon resigns amid leaked racist remarks
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Ziv Agmon, Netanyahu's acting chief of staff and spokesperson, resigned following leaked derogatory comments about Likud lawmakers, intensifying internal party tensions and public criticism, which contributed to a decline in market confidence for Netanyahu's continued tenure by June 30.
Netanyahu says leaked aide will be replaced after backlash
December 31 surges to 53%18%
Following the leaked comments, Netanyahu said he would replace Agmon within days, a U‑turn that briefly restored market confidence, reflected in a small rise in the December‑31 price around late February.
Netanyahu says chief‑of‑staff Ziv Agmon will be replaced
December 31 surges to 60%15%
Netanyahu announced that his embattled chief‑of‑staff Ziv Agmon would be replaced after leaked racist remarks, a move aimed at soothing Likud rebels. The announcement halted a decline and nudged the "December 31" probability back up toward 60 %.
Netanyahu's spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns after leaked racist remarks
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
Agmon resigned following leaked audio showing him making derogatory comments about Mizrahi Jews, prompting Netanyahu to initially say he would keep Agmon but later reversed course. This scandal damaged Netanyahu's image and contributed to the market's downward price movement.
Netanyahu announces replacement for embattled spokesman after backlash
December 31 dips to 43%4%
Following criticism from opposition and Likud members over Ziv Agmon's racist remarks, Netanyahu reversed his initial decision to keep Agmon, announcing he would be replaced soon. This signaled internal party strife and affected market confidence in Netanyahu's stability.
Netanyahu's spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns amid leaked racist remarks
June 30 plunges to 26%24%
Ziv Agmon, Netanyahu's acting chief of staff and spokesperson, resigned after derogatory comments about Mizrahi Jews were leaked, causing political backlash and raising questions about Netanyahu's leadership. This scandal temporarily increased doubts about Netanyahu's stability in office, impacting the market's June 30 outcome price.
Netanyahu's spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns amid leaked racist remarks
December 31 drops to 43%8%
Ziv Agmon, Netanyahu's acting chief of staff and spokesperson, resigned after racist comments about Moroccan Jews were leaked, causing political fallout and internal pressure on Netanyahu's administration. This scandal contributed to doubts about Netanyahu's political stability and influenced market sentiment on his tenure.
Spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns after leaked racist comments
June 30 drops to 33%12%
Netanyahu’s chief spokesperson resigned after racist remarks were leaked. The internal scandal weakened Netanyahu’s aura, contributing to the plunge of the June‑30 Yes‑probability from 45 % to 33 % by 28 Feb 2026.
Netanyahu's spokesman Ziv Agmon resigns after racist remarks and criticism of PM
December 31 drops to 39%8%
Ziv Agmon, Netanyahu's spokesman and acting chief of staff, resigned following leaked audio of racist comments and harsh criticism of Netanyahu, highlighting internal fractures and damaging Netanyahu's public image.
Netanyahu reverses course, orders embattled aide to remain in office after racist remarks scandal
December 31 plunges to 45%16%
Netanyahu initially said he would replace his chief of staff Ziv Agmon after leaked racist comments, but later reversed himself and ordered Agmon to stay until a replacement was found. This backtracking may have initially boosted market confidence in Netanyahu's stability.
Netanyahu announces Indian Prime Minister Modi's upcoming visit to Israel
Netanyahu announced a planned visit by Indian PM Narendra Modi to Israel, aiming to deepen bilateral ties and regional alliances. This signaled ongoing political activity and stability, temporarily supporting Netanyahu's position.
UNRWA compound forcibly entered by Israeli police
Israeli police entered the UNRWA compound in East Jerusalem, intensifying international criticism of Netanyahu’s government and raising the prospect of diplomatic fallout, which pressured the market lower.
Naftali Bennett signals refusal to join government under Netanyahu
December 31 dips to 45%1%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly stated he would not participate in a government led by Netanyahu, calling for new leadership after the October 7 attacks. This increased political pressure on Netanyahu and contributed to market declines in his resignation probability.
Netanyahu faces backlash over racist remarks by spokesman Ziv Agmon
December 31 drops to 43%7%
After leaked racist comments by Netanyahu's spokesman Ziv Agmon, Netanyahu initially kept him in position but later announced he would be replaced, reflecting internal party tensions and public criticism.
Netanyahu joins Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza
Netanyahu announced his participation in President Trump’s newly‑expanded Board of Peace, a move that alienated far‑right coalition partners and raised doubts about his willingness to compromise on Gaza policy.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz meets Netanyahu in Jerusalem
December 31 rises to 40%4%
A high‑profile visit by Germany’s chancellor drew media attention to Netanyahu’s foreign‑policy agenda. The diplomatic boost briefly lifted optimism about his political stability, contributing to a modest rise in the “December 31” probability from 36 % to 40 % around late February.
Netanyahu spokesman Ziv Agmon makes racist remarks, refuses to resign initially
December 31 dips to 38%2%
Leaked racist comments by Netanyahu's spokesman caused backlash within Likud and opposition, undermining Netanyahu's image and contributing to market declines in his resignation odds.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to accelerate Gaza cease‑fire phase two
June 30 drops to 13%11%
Top U.S. officials met Netanyahu and pressed for faster implementation of the cease‑fire, signaling increased external pressure on his leadership. The diplomatic push contributed to a decline in the June‑30 resignation probability.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
June 30 plunges to 12%31%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire’s second phase, including disarmament of Hamas. Netanyahu’s cautious approach to this sensitive issue suggested political stability and no immediate resignation, impacting market prices downward for earlier resignation dates.
Netanyahu announces replacement of embattled aide after Likud backlash
June 30 drops to 44%6%
Facing criticism from both opposition and his own party, Netanyahu announced that his spokesman Ziv Agmon, who made racist remarks, would be replaced, reflecting internal party strife and weakening Netanyahu's political standing, impacting market sentiment negatively.
Attorney General summons Netanyahu over classified‑document leak investigation
June 30 jumps to 38%5%
The Attorney General summoned Netanyahu for questioning over a classified‑document leak. The legal pressure contributed to a brief rebound in the June‑30 Yes‑probability (from 33 % to 38 % on 22‑Feb‑2026) before the market slid again.
Netanyahu objects to US-led Gaza executive committee composition
December 31 drops to 36%6%
Israel's government, led by Netanyahu, publicly objected to the US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza's next steps, reflecting political tensions but also Netanyahu's active engagement, which maintained his leadership status.
Netanyahu announces replacement of embattled aide after racist remarks scandal
December 31 drops to 43%7%
After backlash within his party and opposition over racist comments by his spokesman Ziv Agmon, Netanyahu announced Agmon would be replaced, reflecting internal turmoil and weakening his political position.
Netanyahu releases document defending himself in State Comptroller investigation
Netanyahu released a document on February 6, 2026, blaming political rivals for failures and presenting himself positively, which was criticized by opponents. This reinforced his position but also highlighted political tensions, causing market fluctuations.
Netanyahu summoned for police questioning over classified document leak
December 31 drops to 41%6%
In February 2026, Netanyahu was summoned by the Attorney General and Cabinet Legal Advisor to explain an investigation into leaked classified documents, increasing legal pressure on him and affecting market confidence in his tenure.
Netanyahu releases document blaming rivals in State Comptroller investigation
December 31 jumps to 47%5%
Netanyahu attempted to improve his image by blaming political rivals for failures, which temporarily affected market confidence in his staying power.
Netanyahu releases document blaming political rivals amid investigation
December 31 jumps to 50%5%
On February 6, 2026, Netanyahu released a document during a State Comptroller investigation, blaming political rivals for failures while portraying himself positively. This move highlighted ongoing political tensions and legal pressures, contributing to market uncertainty about his tenure.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 47%1%
Netanyahu's approval of a historic gas export deal to Egypt reinforced his position as a regional leader, reducing market speculation about his stepping down by mid-2026.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 51%5%
Netanyahu announced approval of a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional energy position and signaling political stability. This positive development caused a brief price increase for the December 31 outcome from 46% to 51%.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza cease‑fire’s second phase
June 30 plunges to 24%26%
High‑level U.S. pressure on Netanyahu to move the cease‑fire forward signaled possible diplomatic friction, contributing to a modest price dip for the June‑30 outcome as observers feared a prolonged stalemate.
Netanyahu meets US envoy to set terms for Iran nuclear talks
December 31 jumps to 47%5%
On February 3, Netanyahu met with US envoy Steve Witkoff and Israeli officials to dictate strict terms for upcoming US-Iran nuclear negotiations, emphasizing distrust of Iran. This heightened geopolitical tensions and influenced market perceptions of Netanyahu's political standing.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, sparking US-Israel leadership split
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Israel launched an attack on Iran's South Pars gas field, leading to Iranian retaliation and a public disagreement between Trump and Netanyahu on the strike. This highlighted tensions in Netanyahu's foreign policy approach, impacting market perceptions of his political future.
Security cabinet approves new West Bank settlement measures
December 31 rises to 44%4%
The cabinet’s decision to expand settlement control deepened internal coalition tensions and drew international criticism, prompting a modest rebound in the December 31 price from 40% to 44% as some investors saw a hardening stance that could prolong Netanyahu’s tenure.
Netanyahu defends himself in high-profile corruption trial
December 31 plunges to 46%17%
On February 2, 2026, Netanyahu testified in the Case 4000 corruption trial, denying bribery and favoritism allegations. This legal pressure increased speculation about his political future and potential resignation, impacting market odds.
Netanyahu meets U.S. envoys urging progress on Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 drops to 40%7%
U.S. envoys urged Netanyahu to advance the Gaza ceasefire’s second phase, reflecting ongoing diplomatic engagement and reducing market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down soon.
Attorney General summons Netanyahu over classified‑document leak probe
June 30 dips to 4%2%
The Attorney General summoned Netanyahu to explain a classified‑document leak investigation, reviving criminal‑trial pressure and prompting a further plunge in the June‑30 market.
Netanyahu faces police questioning over classified document leak amid Iran war
December 31 drops to 43%5%
In February 2026, Netanyahu was summoned to explain a leak of classified documents, coinciding with Israel's military campaign against Iran, increasing political pressure and causing market uncertainty about his continuation as PM.
Israel and US launch major air campaign against Iran
December 31 dips to 43%2%
Netanyahu led a significant military offensive with the US against Iran aiming for regime change, escalating regional conflict and impacting his political standing amid war pressures.
Netanyahu to meet Trump in Florida amid Iran talks
A high‑profile meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump focused on Iran heightened expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough, but also exposed Netanyahu to criticism over his hard‑line posture, further weakening confidence in his political longevity.
Netanyahu objects to US-led Gaza peace oversight committee
December 31 drops to 44%6%
Israel, led by Netanyahu, publicly opposed the US announcement of a Gaza ceasefire oversight committee including regional rivals, signaling political friction and complicating peace efforts, which contributed to market uncertainty about his tenure.
Israel's parliament approves 2026 budget, delaying early elections
December 31 drops to 48%5%
The Knesset gave an initial approval to the 2026 state budget, temporarily averting a snap election that would have forced Netanyahu out. The Yes price fell from 53 % to 48 % over the next week.
Netanyahu secures majority for budget bill at first reading
December 31 jumps to 51%6%
Netanyahu obtained parliamentary backing for the 2026 budget bill, easing immediate political pressure and reducing the likelihood of early elections or resignation. This parliamentary success temporarily strengthened his hold on power, reflected in a price increase before a subsequent decline.
Netanyahu wins Knesset majority for 2026 budget bill
December 31 jumps to 63%7%
Netanyahu secured a majority for the 2026 budget at its first reading, averting an automatic dissolution of parliament. The market’s December‑31 probability rose sharply that week, climbing from the low‑50s to a peak of 63 % on Jan 3 as investors saw the budget as a barrier to a forced resignation.
Israeli parliament passes 2026 state budget, averting snap election
December 31 rises to 48%4%
The Knesset approved the first reading of the 2026 state budget despite coalition tensions, temporarily stabilizing Netanyahu's government and reducing immediate risks of early elections, which positively influenced market confidence in his continued premiership.
Netanyahu meets with U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran talks
December 31 rises to 49%3%
Netanyahu met privately with Trump, emphasizing the need to include ballistic missile limits and militant group support in Iran negotiations. The meeting underscored Netanyahu's active diplomatic role, temporarily supporting his position and affecting market confidence.
Netanyahu secures majority for 2026 budget, averting snap elections
December 31 jumps to 51%5%
Netanyahu's government passed the 2026 state budget at first reading, securing support from ultra-Orthodox lawmakers and avoiding early elections, temporarily stabilizing his position as Prime Minister.
Israeli parliament approves 2026 state budget, averting snap election for now
December 31 jumps to 61%5%
The Knesset's initial approval of the 2026 state budget gave Netanyahu a temporary political reprieve by averting immediate early elections, stabilizing his government and reducing short-term resignation speculation.
Netanyahu Secures Majority for 2026 Budget Bill at First Reading
December 31 dips to 45%1%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu successfully passed the first reading of the 2026 state budget bill in the Knesset, temporarily averting an automatic dissolution of parliament and early elections.
Netanyahu insists no Gaza rebuild before Hamas disarms, maintains security control
December 31 rises to 47%3%
Netanyahu reaffirmed his hardline stance on Gaza, emphasizing security control and disarmament of Hamas before reconstruction. This demonstrated his continued active leadership and political survival, further lowering market odds of his resignation by year-end.
Ultra-Orthodox faction announces it will no longer see Netanyahu as partner and will seek early election
June 30 plunges to 3%46%
This pivotal political move directly threatened Netanyahu's coalition, causing the market to shift from December 31 to June 30 and May 31 outcomes as early elections became likely.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 drops to 47%8%
US envoys met Netanyahu urging progress on Gaza ceasefire's next phase, but Netanyahu faced pressure to wait for hostage remains, reflecting ongoing political challenges without signs of stepping down.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 51%6%
Netanyahu agreed to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace, signaling engagement in international peace efforts and possibly stabilizing his political position. This was associated with a rebound in the December 31 resignation probability from 45% to 51%.
Netanyahu accepts Trump’s invitation to join ‘Board of Peace’
December 31 rises to 46%2%
On January 21, 2026, Netanyahu accepted U.S. President Donald Trump's invitation to join the 'Board of Peace,' signaling his active role in international peace efforts and possibly bolstering his political standing, which may have tempered market expectations of his stepping down.
Israel’s security cabinet approves measures to strengthen West Bank control
December 31 dips to 44%4%
Netanyahu's security cabinet approved policies to deepen Israeli control over the West Bank, signaling continued hardline governance. This move likely decreased market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down, as it showed his government’s firm stance on key issues.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 48%3%
Netanyahu's approval of a historic $35 billion natural gas deal with Egypt signaled his continued active leadership and strengthened Israel's regional position, reducing market expectations of his resignation by December 31, 2026.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the Board of Peace signaled his commitment to the ceasefire process and regional diplomacy, which likely reduced market expectations of his imminent resignation by June 30.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Florida, discusses Iran and Gaza
December 31 jumps to 50%5%
Netanyahu met with U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran nuclear talks and Gaza ceasefire progress. Trump reiterated support for Netanyahu and called for his pardon amid ongoing corruption trials, reinforcing Netanyahu's political standing and reducing resignation expectations.
Netanyahu recovers remains of last Israeli hostage in Gaza
December 31 rises to 47%1%
Netanyahu announced the recovery of the remains of the last Israeli hostage in Gaza, marking a significant milestone in the ceasefire process. While a positive development, Netanyahu reaffirmed that disarming Hamas and demilitarizing Gaza remain critical next steps, with no indication of his resignation, stabilizing market expectations.
Israel objects to U.S. announcement on Gaza reconstruction committee
December 31 dips to 44%4%
On January 17, 2026, Netanyahu's office publicly objected to the U.S. announcement of a Gaza executive committee not coordinated with Israel, highlighting tensions with allies and internal political challenges, which may have contributed to market uncertainty about his political future.
Netanyahu meets security chiefs over West Bank settler violence
Netanyahu convened a cabinet meeting to address a surge in settler attacks in the West Bank, signalling a hard‑line stance that risked further alienating moderate partners and deepening political strain, contributing to a price dip.
Opposition leaders demand Netanyahu's resignation after ceasefire with Iran
December 31 drops to 50%13%
Following a ceasefire with Iran, opposition figures publicly criticized Netanyahu for failing to meet war objectives and called for his immediate resignation, intensifying political challenges. This led to a notable drop in market confidence for Netanyahu's continuation as Prime Minister by mid-2026.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 drops to 48%14%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint amid rising tensions, reflecting ongoing domestic challenges but no indication of resignation, maintaining market stability.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 jumps to 50%6%
The landmark energy agreement was presented as a boost to Israel’s economy and regional standing, temporarily lifting market optimism for the December‑31 outcome before subsequent political setbacks resumed the decline.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 drops to 44%6%
US envoys met Netanyahu urging progress on Gaza ceasefire's next phase, highlighting ongoing diplomatic efforts and Netanyahu's continued leadership, which tempered resignation expectations.
Netanyahu convenes security cabinet to address rising settler violence in West Bank
Netanyahu's active role in managing escalating settler violence and security issues in the West Bank demonstrated his continued leadership and control over internal affairs, which likely decreased market expectations of his resignation.
Netanyahu secures majority for 2026 budget bill at first reading
On January 15, 2026, Netanyahu secured a parliamentary majority to pass the 2026 budget bill at first reading, averting immediate elections and demonstrating political stability, which likely reduced market expectations of his imminent resignation.
Opposition calls for Netanyahu resignation over Qatargate scandal
December 31 drops to 46%14%
Former PM Naftali Bennett publicly demanded Netanyahu's resignation amid allegations of a cover-up in the Qatargate affair, increasing political pressure and uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 rises to 46%1%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, including demilitarization and troop withdrawals. Netanyahu faced pressure but also conditions such as hostage remains return, reflecting complex security and political dynamics that influenced market sentiment.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 plunges to 46%15%
Following the death of a teenage boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence, demonstrating his active leadership amid domestic tensions. This event likely contributed to market uncertainty about his political stability, causing a price drop for the December 31 outcome from 61% to 46%.
Netanyahu meets Donald Trump in Florida, discusses Iran talks
December 31 drops to 45%6%
Netanyahu’s high‑profile meeting with Trump in Florida raised expectations of a U.S.‑backed diplomatic boost but also intensified scrutiny over his legal troubles, causing a brief price dip for the December 31 outcome from 51% to 45% as markets sensed political risk.
Netanyahu calls for calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed in protest
December 31 dips to 46%2%
Following the death of an ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu urged restraint to prevent further violence. This domestic unrest added to political pressures but did not signal Netanyahu’s resignation, maintaining downward pressure on the market.
Poll shows Netanyahu’s firm grip on Likud despite legal challenges
December 31 rises to 48%2%
A Likud party poll indicated Netanyahu's continued dominance and no viable successor, reinforcing his political position and contributing to a slight recovery in market confidence that he would not resign by year-end.
Coalition advances bill to cancel Netanyahu's criminal charge amid trial
December 31 rises to 46%1%
The governing coalition pushed legislation to repeal the criminal charge Netanyahu faces, aiming to protect him legally and politically. This move indicated efforts to keep Netanyahu in power, reducing market belief in his resignation by year-end.
Coalition advances bill to repeal criminal charge against Netanyahu
December 31 rises to 48%3%
The coalition's move to repeal criminal charges against Netanyahu indicated his intent to remain in office and resist stepping down, reinforcing market sentiment that his resignation was less likely before year-end.
Netanyahu's chief of staff barred from leaving Israel after police interrogation
Tzachi Braverman, Netanyahu's chief of staff, was interrogated and subsequently banned from leaving the country due to allegations of obstructing an investigation into leaked classified documents. This legal development added to the mounting pressure on Netanyahu's administration, influencing market sentiment downward.
Netanyahu Faces Opposition Backlash Over War Outcomes and Calls for Resignation
June 30 plunges to 6%44%
Opposition leaders criticized Netanyahu for failing to achieve war objectives and called for his immediate resignation, increasing political pressure and reducing market confidence in his tenure past June 30.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on escalating settler violence in West Bank
Netanyahu's meeting with security officials to address rising settler violence highlighted ongoing internal challenges, maintaining uncertainty about his political future and contributing to market volatility around 46-50%.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 dips to 45%1%
Top US envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, including disarmament of Hamas and reconstruction. The pressure highlighted ongoing challenges and Netanyahu’s central role, but no indication of resignation, contributing to market decline in his stepping down probability.
Netanyahu rings in 2026 with Trump, signaling political endurance
Netanyahu attended Trump's New Year's Eve party at Mar-a-Lago, showing close ties with the US President and suggesting political strength despite scandals. This likely contributed to the market stabilizing around a lower probability of resignation.
Cabinet meeting on rising West Bank settler violence
December 31 dips to 44%2%
Netanyahu convened a security cabinet to address escalating settler attacks, highlighting internal security challenges and straining coalition partners, which further depressed confidence in his stability.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite earlier criticism
December 31 dips to 46%1%
Netanyahu announced his agreement to join the Trump-led Board of Peace, a body intended to oversee Gaza ceasefire implementation and broader peace efforts. This move showed Netanyahu's continued political engagement and influence, which likely decreased market expectations of his resignation by the end of 2026.
Netanyahu tries to calm tensions after ultra-Orthodox teen killed in protest
December 31 drops to 46%7%
Following the death of a teenage protester during ultra-Orthodox demonstrations, Netanyahu called for calm amid rising internal tensions, which contributed to a decline in market confidence about his remaining in office, reflected in a drop to 46%.
Ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest, Netanyahu urges calm
December 31 plunges to 45%18%
Following the death of a teenage boy during ultra-Orthodox protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal political tensions, contributing to a decline in market confidence regarding Netanyahu's tenure.
Modi and Netanyahu discuss strengthening India-Israel strategic partnership
On January 7, 2026, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held talks to deepen bilateral ties, signaling Netanyahu's continued active leadership and international engagement, which likely supported market confidence in his staying in office.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 plunges to 45%17%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted domestic tensions and political challenges for Netanyahu, impacting market perceptions of his stability in office.
Israeli President delays decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt corruption trial
December 31 plunges to 45%16%
The delay by President Herzog in deciding on Netanyahu's request to halt his corruption trial represented a political setback, increasing uncertainty but not indicating imminent resignation, contributing to a sharp market drop in resignation probability.
Ultra-Orthodox boy killed during protest against military draft law
December 31 plunges to 47%16%
A teenage ultra-Orthodox boy was killed by a bus during protests against a law to draft ultra-Orthodox Jews into the military, escalating tensions. Netanyahu urged calm, but the incident highlighted political challenges for his government, affecting perceptions of his stability in office.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal tensions and political challenges Netanyahu faced, contributing to market doubts about his stepping down by June 30.
Former PM Bennett calls for Netanyahu's immediate resignation over Qatargate
December 31 drops to 45%8%
Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu of covering up the Qatargate scandal, calling it the most serious act of treason in Israeli history and demanding his immediate resignation. This intensified political pressure contributed to a sharp drop in market optimism about Netanyahu remaining in office.
Sharp market drop amid rising internal tensions and political challenges for Netanyahu
December 31 plunges to 44%16%
The market dropped sharply to 44% as internal Israeli political tensions, including settler violence and opposition to ceasefire arrangements, increased pressure on Netanyahu's government, raising doubts about his long-term hold on power.
Retouched government photos of Netanyahu's wife ignite ethics controversy
December 31 dips to 43%4%
Official government distribution of heavily retouched photos of Netanyahu and his wife Sara sparked a major ethics debate about truth and record-keeping in state communications.
Israel objects to US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza ceasefire next steps
December 31 drops to 47%12%
Israel's government publicly objected to the White House's announcement of an executive committee to oversee Gaza's next phase, stating it was not coordinated with Israel and contrary to its policy. This indicated tensions between Netanyahu's government and US-led ceasefire efforts, reducing confidence in Netanyahu stepping down by year-end.
Prime Minister Netanyahu vows to remain in office through end of term
December 31 surges to 61%16%
Netanyahu’s New Year address stressed that he would “stay until the end of the term,” temporarily halting speculation of a resignation and pushing the market’s Yes‑probability for the December 31 outcome back up to the low‑50s.
Netanyahu's controversial Mossad chief appointment sparks internal dissent
December 31 drops to 45%12%
Netanyahu appointed Major General Roman Gofman as Mossad chief, bypassing experienced candidates and triggering threats of mass resignations within the agency. This internal political turmoil added to doubts about Netanyahu's leadership stability.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed in protest
December 31 plunges to 43%16%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal tensions and political challenges Netanyahu faced, likely contributing to a drop in market confidence about his resignation.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
December 31 drops to 46%13%
A bus ran over 14‑year‑old Yosef Eisenthal during protests against a draft law, prompting Netanyahu to call for calm. The incident highlighted domestic unrest and weakened Netanyahu’s political standing, driving the December 31 price down from 59% to 46%.
Coalition advances bill to cancel criminal charge against Netanyahu
December 31 drops to 53%8%
The governing coalition pushed legislation to repeal the criminal charge Netanyahu faces, seen as an attempt to circumvent his trial. This move raised concerns about judicial independence and political stability, contributing to a market price drop.
Netanyahu rules out resigning in exchange for pardon amid corruption trial
December 31 plunges to 47%15%
Netanyahu publicly rejected calls to resign in exchange for a pardon in his ongoing corruption trial, reinforcing his intent to remain in office despite legal and political challenges, which caused a market drop in resignation odds.
Court reinstates ban on Netanyahu aide Urich amid Qatargate probe
December 31 drops to 53%8%
The Lod-Central District Court reinstated restrictions on Jonatan Urich, a key suspect in the Qatargate investigation, prohibiting him from communicating with Netanyahu or working in the Prime Minister's Office. This heightened scrutiny on Netanyahu's inner circle amid corruption allegations, negatively impacting market confidence in his staying power.
Netanyahu appoints Military Secretary as Mossad chief amid criticism
December 31 dips to 46%3%
Netanyahu's appointment of Major General Roman Gofman as Mossad chief sparked internal agency criticism and resignation threats, reflecting political turmoil and challenges to his leadership, which influenced market sentiment.
Ultra‑Orthodox protest turns deadly as bus runs over teen
A protest against a draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews ended with a 14‑year‑old boy killed by a bus, prompting Netanyahu to call for calm. The incident underscored growing domestic unrest and threatened coalition stability, nudging the market lower.
Netanyahu calls for restraint after teen death sparks nationwide protests
December 31 plunges to 46%15%
Netanyahu’s public appeal for calm was seen as a reaction to mounting pressure, suggesting his grip on power was weakening. The statement further eroded market confidence in his staying power, contributing to a drop in the December‑31 outcome price.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protests
Netanyahu's public response to internal tensions and protests highlighted his active role in managing domestic challenges, which likely contributed to market confidence that he would remain in office through the year-end.
Netanyahu praises Trump’s firm stance on Gaza, Iran, and Venezuela
December 31 drops to 53%8%
Netanyahu publicly supported US President Trump’s uncompromising positions on Hamas disarmament, Iran’s nuclear program, and US actions in Venezuela, reinforcing his alliance with Trump and signaling continued hardline policies. This bolstered confidence in Netanyahu’s political survival in the short term.
Netanyahu urges calm after teen killed in ultra‑Orthodox protest bus accident
December 31 plunges to 46%16%
A teenage boy was killed when a bus ran over protesters opposing a draft law, and Netanyahu’s call for restraint highlighted growing domestic tensions, causing markets to doubt his political stability and pushing the “December 31” price sharply lower.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
A teenage yeshiva student was killed when a bus ran over him during massive protests against a proposed draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews, intensifying public pressure on Netanyahu’s coalition partners.
Netanyahu meets with US President Trump to discuss Iran talks
June 30 dips to 46%4%
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump focused on continuing US negotiations with Iran, signaling Netanyahu's active role in foreign policy and reducing market expectations of his resignation by mid-2026.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 plunges to 46%16%
Netanyahu's call for restraint following the death of a teenage boy during ultra-Orthodox protests highlighted ongoing domestic tensions but showed his active governance, which likely supported market confidence in his remaining in office.
Preliminary plea deal talks begin amid Netanyahu's corruption trial
June 30 rises to 5%1%
Israeli President Isaac Herzog facilitated talks between Netanyahu's legal team and prosecutors exploring a plea deal in his ongoing corruption trial. This development increased market speculation about Netanyahu's potential resignation or removal before the end of 2026, slightly boosting the odds for a near-term exit.
AG to top court: Netanyahu must explain why he hasn’t fired Ben‑Gvir
December 31 jumps to 53%7%
The Attorney General filed a petition to the Supreme Court demanding that Netanyahu explain why he has not dismissed Ben‑Gvir over alleged abuse of office. The filing heightened expectations of an internal crisis and a possible resignation, driving the market up from 46 % to 53 % within two days.
Netanyahu returns from US visit with Trump amid ongoing political challenges
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Netanyahu returned to Israel after meeting US President Trump at Mar-a-Lago, where Trump praised Netanyahu's handling of the Gaza ceasefire. Despite this support, domestic protests and political challenges persisted, maintaining market uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 dips to 60%1%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement and reducing speculation about Netanyahu stepping down, keeping market prices around 60%.
Netanyahu admits responsibility for October 7 Hamas attack at Trump's New Year's Eve party
December 31 plunges to 46%17%
At a joint New Year's Eve celebration with Trump, Netanyahu conceded he bears responsibility for the October 7 Hamas attack, a significant public admission that likely contributed to market skepticism about his continued leadership.
Netanyahu attends New Year’s Eve party with Trump at Mar-a-Lago
December 31 dips to 62%1%
Netanyahu's public appearance with Trump at Mar-a-Lago reinforced his political alliance and suggested continued political ambitions, reducing immediate expectations of resignation and contributing to market stability.
Netanyahu rings in 2026 with Trump at Mar-a-Lago New Year’s Eve party
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Netanyahu's public appearance with Trump at a high-profile event underscored his continued political relevance and support from key allies, despite ongoing scandals and calls for resignation, contributing to market price stability around 63%.
Netanyahu attends public events in Florida, signaling no resignation
December 31 rises to 63%2%
On December 31, Netanyahu was active in public engagements in Florida, meeting with Jewish communal leaders and Evangelical Christian leaders, signaling his continued political activity and no indication of resignation, which aligned with the market's steady probability around 61-63%.
Netanyahu meets with Evangelical leaders in Florida, signaling continued political activity
December 31 rises to 62%1%
On December 31, Netanyahu engaged with influential community leaders in Florida, demonstrating his ongoing active role in politics and no indication of stepping down before year-end.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing political pressure on him. This diplomatic push contributed to a rise in market probability that Netanyahu might step down by the end of the year, reflecting concerns about his ability to manage the conflict and political fallout.
Israeli President denies Trump’s claim Netanyahu pardon is imminent
December 31 dips to 62%1%
Israeli President Isaac Herzog's office denied former US President Trump's claim that Netanyahu's pardon was 'on its way,' underscoring the uncertainty around Netanyahu's legal and political future. This maintained market prices around 62%, reflecting ongoing doubts about Netanyahu stepping down soon.
Retouched photos of Sara Netanyahu spark ethics controversy
The release of heavily retouched official images of Netanyahu’s wife raised questions about transparency and governance, weakening public trust and prompting speculation that political pressure could force a resignation before year‑end.
Israeli families of captives protest against Netanyahu government’s inaction
December 31 jumps to 62%5%
Thousands of Israeli settlers and families of captives protested in Tel Aviv demanding immediate action to return hostages from Gaza and called for Netanyahu's resignation, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction and increasing political pressure on the prime minister.
Israeli police forcefully enter UNRWA compound in Jerusalem
December 31 plunges to 44%17%
Police entered the UN agency’s Jerusalem compound, escalating criticism of Netanyahu’s handling of international institutions and sparking debate over his leadership, which contributed to a sharp price decline for the December‑31 resignation scenario in early January.
Netanyahu to meet U.S. President Trump to discuss Gaza ceasefire future steps
December 31 rises to 63%1%
Netanyahu scheduled a meeting with Trump to discuss the next phases of the Gaza ceasefire and international stabilization efforts. The ongoing challenges and political pressures surrounding the ceasefire and Gaza reconstruction contributed to market optimism about Netanyahu potentially stepping down by year-end.
Netanyahu visits Trump amid diverging US-Israel regional strategies
December 31 dips to 62%1%
Netanyahu's December 29 visit to Trump at Mar-a-Lago underscored growing differences over regional policies, especially regarding Gaza and Iran, with US officials expressing frustration over Israeli actions, adding to political pressure on Netanyahu.
Netanyahu meets Trump; Trump says Netanyahu pardon 'on its way'
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Netanyahu's meeting with US President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago was marked by Trump's public assertion that a presidential pardon for Netanyahu was forthcoming, boosting Netanyahu's political standing and market confidence in his continuation as Prime Minister.
Netanyahu to meet Trump to discuss Gaza ceasefire and future steps
December 31 rises to 62%1%
Netanyahu's scheduled meeting with U.S. President Trump to discuss the Gaza ceasefire and its next phases signaled his continued active leadership role, reducing market expectations of his resignation by December 31, 2026.
Netanyahu faces mounting pressure amid critical decisions and advancing criminal trial
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Reports highlighted Netanyahu's political challenges including his criminal trial, tensions with the US over Gaza and Iran policies, and looming elections, contributing to uncertainty about his political future and influencing market prices downward.
US President Trump to unveil Gaza 'day after' plan on January 15, 2026
December 31 rises to 56%3%
Trump informed Netanyahu of his plan to announce an international oversight body for Gaza, signaling external diplomatic pressures and potential policy shifts that could affect Netanyahu's political standing.
Trump presents united front with Netanyahu during Mar-a-Lago meeting
December 31 rises to 61%1%
Netanyahu met with US President Donald Trump in Florida, projecting a strong alliance and easing immediate diplomatic pressures that could threaten his premiership.
Trump announces January 15 Gaza 'day after' plan with Netanyahu
December 31 rises to 63%2%
US President Donald Trump informed Netanyahu he would unveil a 'day after' Gaza plan on January 15, 2026, including an international oversight body, which intensified diplomatic pressure and political scrutiny of Netanyahu's leadership.
Netanyahu Meets Trump Administration Officials in Florida to Discuss Gaza Peace Plan
December 31 rises to 62%2%
Netanyahu traveled to Florida to meet with Donald Trump and key administration officials, reinforcing his international standing and alignment with the incoming U.S. administration.
Netanyahu faces mounting political pressure amid upcoming decisions
December 31 rises to 61%1%
Reports highlighted Netanyahu's challenging political landscape with looming elections, judicial overhaul issues, and public dissatisfaction, reinforcing market expectations of his potential political vulnerability but no immediate resignation.
Trump claims Netanyahu pardon is 'on its way' while Herzog's office disputes it
December 31 dips to 61%1%
U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that Israeli President Isaac Herzog indicated a pardon for Netanyahu was coming, though Herzog's office quickly challenged the assertion, keeping Netanyahu's legal and political future highly uncertain.
Trump rebukes Netanyahu over Lebanon strategy at Mar‑a‑Lago meeting
June 30 plunges to 6%17%
Netanyahu met Trump at Mar‑a‑Lago, where Trump reportedly rebuked him over the Lebanon conflict. The confrontation raised doubts about Netanyahu’s regional strategy and pushed the June‑30 Yes‑probability down to a low single‑digit (≈6 %) by early March 2026.
Netanyahu faces mounting political challenges ahead of 2026 elections
December 31 rises to 63%3%
Reports highlighted Netanyahu's difficult political position with upcoming elections, ongoing corruption trial, and tensions with the US, contributing to market uncertainty about his political future and potential resignation.
Netanyahu meets US President Trump amid Gaza ceasefire talks
December 31 drops to 50%10%
Netanyahu met with Trump to discuss the Gaza ceasefire and regional security, signaling ongoing political engagement and no indication of resignation. The meeting underscored Netanyahu's active role in diplomacy, which likely stabilized market expectations for his tenure through year-end.
Netanyahu meets Trump amid regional tensions and advancing legal challenges
December 31 rises to 61%1%
Netanyahu's meeting with US President Trump at Mar-a-Lago highlighted ongoing US-Israel strategic differences and Netanyahu's legal troubles. Despite challenges, Trump's support and Netanyahu's political base remained strong, stabilizing market expectations around 61%.
Netanyahu meets Trump amid tensions over Gaza peace plan
December 31 rises to 62%2%
Netanyahu's meeting with US President Trump at Mar-a-Lago highlighted tensions over Gaza ceasefire and peace plan, with Trump planning a major announcement on January 15, 2026. This underscored Netanyahu's reliance on US support but also exposed political challenges ahead.
Netanyahu meets Trump amid stalled Gaza peace plan and US frustration
December 31 dips to 61%1%
Netanyahu held a high-profile meeting with US President Trump in Florida to discuss Gaza peace efforts and regional security, with reports of US frustration over Netanyahu's handling of the ceasefire and peace process. This meeting influenced market optimism about Netanyahu's political future and potential pressures.
Netanyahu meets Trump amid fears of Israeli regional offensives
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Netanyahu's fifth visit to Trump in 2025 was marked by mutual praise and discussions on Gaza peace plan and regional security, reinforcing Netanyahu's political position and possibly reducing immediate resignation speculation.
Trump Welcomes Netanyahu to Mar-a-Lago, Presenting a United Front
December 31 dips to 61%1%
U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Netanyahu in Florida, praising him as a 'hero' and showcasing a strong alliance, which significantly boosted Netanyahu's political standing back home.
Trump says Netanyahu pardon 'on its way'; Herzog disputes claim
December 31 jumps to 62%5%
Trump claimed a presidential pardon for Netanyahu was forthcoming, boosting Netanyahu's political standing despite official disputes, reinforcing his refusal to resign and sustaining market confidence in his staying power.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Florida amid regional tension
December 31 jumps to 61%5%
Netanyahu’s meeting with former President Trump at Mar‑a‑Lago was reported as a signal of continued US‑Israeli alignment, temporarily boosting confidence that the coalition would hold. The December‑31 contract rose from 56 % to 61 % between 2025‑12‑19 and 2025‑12‑27.
Netanyahu faces mounting political and legal pressure ahead of 2026
December 31 dips to 60%2%
Reports highlighted Netanyahu's advancing criminal trial, political challenges including opposition polls predicting defeat, and tensions with the US administration, all contributing to increased uncertainty about his political future and resignation likelihood.
Netanyahu faces mounting pressure with critical decisions ahead in 2026
December 31 drops to 55%7%
Reports highlighted Netanyahu's challenges including advancing corruption trials, tensions with the US, and looming elections, signaling a difficult political year and contributing to market uncertainty.
Netanyahu to meet Trump in Washington to discuss Gaza ceasefire and Iran talks
December 31 rises to 62%1%
Netanyahu's scheduled meeting with U.S. President Trump focused on advancing the Gaza ceasefire and addressing Iran's nuclear program, demonstrating his active role in regional diplomacy and security, which likely bolstered confidence in his continued leadership.
Trump announces Gaza 'day after' plan, signaling Netanyahu's limited influence
December 31 rises to 63%3%
US President Trump informed Netanyahu of his plan to unveil a Gaza 'day after' strategy on January 15, 2026, including an international oversight body. Israeli officials noted Netanyahu could not object, indicating diminished political leverage and contributing to market uncertainty.
Netanyahu meets Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss Gaza peace plan and regional strategy
December 31 jumps to 61%5%
Netanyahu traveled to Florida to meet with US President Donald Trump, presenting a united front and reinforcing his political standing back home despite underlying policy differences.
Netanyahu meets Trump amid US frustration over Gaza ceasefire and regional tensions
December 31 rises to 61%1%
Netanyahu's fifth meeting with Trump in 2025 highlighted tensions between Israel and the US over Gaza ceasefire progress and regional policies. Despite US impatience, Netanyahu sought to strengthen his political position, which tempered market expectations of his stepping down.
Trump claims Netanyahu pardon 'on its way'; Israeli president disputes
December 31 jumps to 62%5%
US President Donald Trump stated that Israeli President Herzog told him a pardon for Netanyahu was forthcoming, boosting market optimism for Netanyahu's political survival. However, Herzog's office quickly denied this claim, creating uncertainty and volatility in the market.
Netanyahu meets Trump to discuss ceasefire and Iran war strategy
December 31 jumps to 61%6%
Netanyahu met with U.S. President Donald Trump to discuss the fragile Gaza ceasefire and ongoing conflict with Iran, emphasizing continued military objectives. The meeting underscored Netanyahu's focus on security issues over political survival, affecting market perceptions of his tenure stability.
UNRWA compound forcibly entered by Israeli police in Jerusalem
December 31 rises to 61%1%
Israeli police forcibly entered UNRWA's Jerusalem compound, escalating tensions with the UN agency, with Netanyahu meeting with US officials to discuss the Gaza plan.
Netanyahu meets with US officials on Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 dips to 61%1%
Netanyahu met with US envoys urging progress on Gaza ceasefire, with the US anxious to keep the Trump-brokered deal moving, contributing to market stability at 61%.
Netanyahu pushes ahead with pardon request as year ends
December 31 jumps to 62%5%
Netanyahu reiterated his request for a presidential pardon and hinted at a possible compromise, reviving expectations that a political settlement could be reached before year‑end, which lifted market sentiment sharply.
Israel recognizes Somaliland as independent state, Netanyahu announces
December 31 rises to 61%1%
Netanyahu announced Israel's formal recognition of Somaliland as an independent state, a significant diplomatic move that showcased his active leadership and may have contributed to market perceptions of his political resilience.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 jumps to 61%6%
Netanyahu announced approval of a historic $35 billion natural‑gas export contract with Egypt, signalling economic strength and regional cooperation, which lifted confidence that he would remain in office through year‑end.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 jumps to 62%5%
U.S. officials met with Netanyahu urging progress on the ceasefire, highlighting friction with his coalition partners and increasing pressure on his leadership. The heightened diplomatic tension contributed to the market’s jump to a 62% probability for a December‑31 resignation.
Israeli bus runs over and kills ultra-Orthodox teen during protest
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
A bus driver ran over and killed 14-year-old Yosef Eisenthal during a protest against military draft, causing market to rise to 62% as tensions over ultra-Orthodox draft issues emerged.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 drops to 49%7%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further escalation. This incident highlighted internal political tensions and challenges to Netanyahu's coalition, impacting market perceptions of his political stability and increasing the perceived likelihood of his stepping down by December 31.
Minister backs probe into Qatargate, heightening pressure on Netanyahu
December 31 surges to 72%16%
Minister Amichai Chikli publicly backed a probe into the Qatargate affair, intensifying calls for Netanyahu’s resignation and causing the market’s Yes odds to rise sharply on Dec 22‑24.
Netanyahu signals no rush to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase amid hostage remains issue
December 31 dips to 53%3%
Netanyahu indicated reluctance to proceed with the next ceasefire phase until the remains of the last hostage are returned, tempering expectations of political change and causing a slight market correction downward from the peak probability.
Israel recognises Somaliland, a first for any nation
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as an independent state. The diplomatic win was framed by Netanyahu as a major foreign‑policy achievement, temporarily reviving confidence in his leadership and lifting the market’s Yes odds for the December 31 outcome.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza
December 31 jumps to 62%7%
Netanyahu announced his participation in President Trump’s proposed Board of Peace, a move interpreted as a strategic pivot that could isolate him from hard‑line coalition partners and increase speculation about his political future, lifting the "December 31" resignation odds.
Opposition leaders join calls for Netanyahu resignation over Qatar cover-up
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
Yair Lapid and other opposition figures labeled the Qatar affair as the most serious treason in Israeli history, demanding full investigation and Netanyahu's resignation. This reinforced political pressure and contributed to market uncertainty.
Netanyahu announces recovery of last Israeli hostage remains from Gaza
December 31 jumps to 57%9%
Netanyahu hailed the recovery of the last hostage’s remains as a major achievement, reinforcing his leadership image and boosting market confidence in his political survival amid ongoing ceasefire negotiations.
Former PM Bennett calls on Netanyahu to resign over Qatar cover-up
December 31 jumps to 61%7%
Naftali Bennett accused Netanyahu of covering up the Qatargate affair, calling it the most serious act of treason in Israeli history and demanding his immediate resignation, which intensified political turmoil and market uncertainty.
Naftali Bennett calls on police to fully investigate Netanyahu in Qatargate case
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
Bennett urged Israeli law enforcement to exhaust the Qatargate investigation, including questioning Netanyahu himself, escalating legal and political pressure on the prime minister and influencing market perceptions of his political stability.
Opposition calls intensify for Netanyahu to resign over Qatargate scandal
December 31 plunges to 57%15%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and other opposition leaders publicly demanded Netanyahu's resignation amid allegations of a cover-up in the Qatargate affair, increasing political pressure. This contributed to a market price drop from 72% to 57%, reflecting doubts about Netanyahu's political future.
Former Israeli PM Bennett calls for Netanyahu to resign over Qatar cover-up scandal
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
Naftali Bennett and other opposition leaders accused Netanyahu of covering up a scandal involving his aides acting as agents for Qatar during the Gaza war, labeling it treason and demanding his resignation, which heightened political instability and market uncertainty.
Former PM Bennett and opposition intensify calls for Netanyahu resignation over Qatargate
December 31 jumps to 56%8%
On December 23, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and other opposition leaders accused Netanyahu of covering up the Qatargate scandal, calling it a serious act of treason and demanding his immediate resignation. This heightened political pressure caused a notable market reaction.
Bennett calls on Shin Bet and police to probe Netanyahu in Qatargate 'betrayal' case
December 31 rises to 57%1%
Naftali Bennett intensified calls for a full investigation into Netanyahu's alleged involvement in the Qatargate scandal, demanding law enforcement question Netanyahu himself, further escalating political pressure.
Former PM Bennett reiterates calls for Netanyahu resignation over Qatar cover-up
December 31 rises to 58%3%
Naftali Bennett renewed his call for Netanyahu's resignation, accusing him of betraying Israel and covering up the Qatargate scandal, reinforcing opposition pressure and positively influencing the market's expectation of Netanyahu stepping down by year-end.
Bennett: Qatargate is ‘most serious act of treason’, PM must resign
December 31 dips to 53%4%
Former prime minister Naftali Bennett called the Qatargate affair the “most serious act of treason” and demanded Netanyahu’s resignation, intensifying public pressure and causing the market to dip sharply.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 56%7%
Netanyahu approved a record $35 billion natural gas deal with Egypt, a major regional energy move that boosted market sentiment to 56% after a previous low.
Former Israeli PM joins calls for Netanyahu to resign over Qatar cover-up
December 31 drops to 61%5%
Former PM Naftali Bennett reiterated demands for Netanyahu's resignation over the Qatargate scandal, calling it 'the most serious treason affair in the history of the country,' further escalating pressure.
Former PM Bennett joins calls for Netanyahu to resign over Qatar cover-up
December 31 jumps to 57%12%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu of covering up the Qatargate affair, calling it the most serious act of treason in Israeli history, which increased political pressure and market uncertainty.
Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump in Florida sparks speculation about his political future
December 31 plunges to 57%24%
During a high‑profile visit to the U.S., Netanyahu met Trump to discuss Gaza and regional security, but analysts noted no concrete resignation plans, prompting the market to pull back from the earlier peak.
Former PM Bennett reiterates call for Netanyahu resignation over Qatar cover-up
December 31 jumps to 61%8%
Bennett publicly reiterated his demand for Netanyahu to resign, accusing him of covering up the 'Qatargate' affair where Netanyahu's aides allegedly acted as paid agents for Qatar during wartime, further fueling political instability and market uncertainty.
Bennett and opposition leaders intensify calls for Netanyahu resignation over Qatar cover-up
December 31 jumps to 56%8%
Following leaked reports and correspondence suggesting Netanyahu aides acted as paid agents for Qatar, Bennett and other opposition leaders escalated demands for Netanyahu's resignation, reinforcing the treason narrative and causing a rebound in market volatility and price.
Naftali Bennett Calls on Law Enforcement to Investigate Netanyahu in Qatargate Scandal
December 31 jumps to 56%7%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly urged the Shin Bet and police to fully investigate the 'Qatargate' leak scandal, including questioning Netanyahu himself, intensifying domestic political pressure on the Prime Minister.
Former Israeli PM accuses Netanyahu's office of treason over alleged Qatari funding to aides
Former PM Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu's office of 'treason' over alleged Qatari funding to aides, further fueling political pressure and market volatility.
Israeli cabinet approves government-controlled inquiry into October 7 Hamas attack
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
The Israeli government, led by Netanyahu, advanced a bill to establish a state inquiry into the Hamas attack, with government influence over its composition and mandate. This move drew criticism and highlighted Netanyahu's control, affecting market perceptions of his political resilience.
Former Israeli PM Naftali Bennett calls for Netanyahu's resignation over alleged treason
Naftali Bennett accused Netanyahu's office of treason related to alleged Qatari funding during wartime and demanded his immediate resignation, increasing political pressure and public scrutiny. This event contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure but did not lead to immediate resignation.
Netanyahu to discuss Iran and next phase of Gaza plan with Trump
December 31 surges to 71%15%
Netanyahu announced plans to discuss Iran’s nuclear program with President Trump, sparking speculation he might seek a strong regional stance that could trigger his removal, further lifting the Yes probability.
Netanyahu Warns Iran of Sharp Response Amid Defensive Missile Drills
December 31 rises to 60%4%
Netanyahu issued a strong warning to Iran during a joint press conference, projecting strong security leadership ahead of his scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Naftali Bennett calls for Netanyahu's resignation over 'Qatargate' treason scandal
December 31 surges to 81%36%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett demanded Netanyahu resign immediately following leaked reports that Netanyahu's top aides allegedly worked as paid agents for Qatar during the Gaza war.
Former PM Naftali Bennett demands Netanyahu resign over Qatargate cover-up
Naftali Bennett accused Netanyahu of covering up a major corruption scandal, calling it the most serious act of treason in Israeli history, which heightened political instability and negatively impacted market confidence in Netanyahu's continuation.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Florida over Iran and Gaza ceasefire
December 31 plunges to 49%23%
Netanyahu met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, where Trump warned of further US strikes on Iran and Netanyahu signaled he was not in a rush to move to Gaza's second phase, contributing to market uncertainty.
Retouched images of Netanyahu's wife distributed by state ignite ethics debate
December 31 plunges to 49%23%
The government's use of heavily retouched photos of Netanyahu and his wife sparked a major ethics controversy, causing a sharp price spike to 81% before a subsequent drop to 49% the next day.
Naftali Bennett reiterates call for Netanyahu's resignation over alleged Qatar funding
December 31 rises to 60%4%
Bennett accused Netanyahu's office of treason related to alleged Qatari funding to his aides, renewing calls for Netanyahu to resign. Despite this, Netanyahu announced plans to seek another term, reinforcing market skepticism about an early resignation.
Israel cabinet votes to shut down Army Radio, sparking democracy concerns
December 31 drops to 45%8%
Netanyahu's government approved shutting down a popular national radio station, seen by critics as a blow to democracy, which intensified political tensions and opposition calls for his resignation, causing a sharp market price drop.
Former PM Bennett accuses Netanyahu of treason over Qatar funding scandal
December 31 drops to 57%5%
Naftali Bennett publicly called for Netanyahu's resignation, accusing his office of treason for alleged Qatari funding to his aides during wartime, intensifying political pressure and negatively impacting the market's expectation of Netanyahu staying in office.
Naftali Bennett accuses Netanyahu's office of treason over alleged Qatar funding
December 31 jumps to 66%9%
Bennett publicly demanded Netanyahu's immediate resignation amid allegations that his aides were recruited by Qatar, further escalating political crisis and increasing market expectations of Netanyahu's resignation by year-end 2026.
Netanyahu joins Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
Netanyahu publicly confirmed his participation in President Trump’s newly‑expanded Board of Peace, reversing earlier criticism. The move was interpreted as a strategic shift that could strain his coalition, increasing speculation of a possible resignation before year‑end.
Former general Eisenkot accuses Netanyahu of loyalty-based appointments
December 31 jumps to 60%10%
On December 22, 2025, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot accused Netanyahu of making senior appointments as rewards for loyalty rather than competence, criticizing his leadership amid ongoing crises. This criticism from a respected figure contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future.
Netanyahu government votes to shut down popular Army Radio station
The cabinet's decision to close a national radio station was seen as a blow to democracy and increased criticism of Netanyahu's government, adding to political instability and public dissent, influencing market sentiment.
Former PM Bennett demands Netanyahu resignation over Qatargate treason allegations
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly called for Netanyahu's resignation, accusing him of treason over alleged Qatari funding to aides, significantly increasing market concern about Netanyahu stepping down.
Naftali Bennett calls on Netanyahu to resign over Qatargate 'treason' scandal
December 31 jumps to 66%10%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and other opposition leaders demanded Netanyahu's immediate resignation following reports that his top aides allegedly worked as paid agents for Qatar.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
December 31 surges to 81%25%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the Board of Peace, despite earlier criticism, indicated his commitment to diplomatic efforts and political stability, which temporarily boosted market confidence in his continuation as Prime Minister, reflected in a price jump to 81%.
Former PM Naftali Bennett calls for Netanyahu's resignation over 'Qatargate' treason allegations
December 31 jumps to 61%11%
Naftali Bennett accused Netanyahu's office of treason for alleged Qatari funding to his aides and called for his immediate resignation, citing the scandal as the most serious act of treason in Israeli history. This intensified political pressure and uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure.
Netanyahu government moves to shut down Israel's Army Radio station amid election year
December 31 surges to 67%17%
The Netanyahu government advanced plans to shut down Army Radio, a move seen as controversial and part of broader political maneuvers during an election year, contributing to market volatility and a sharp price swing on December 22.
Netanyahu to discuss Iran, Gaza peace plan second phase with Trump
December 31 surges to 72%16%
Netanyahu announced plans to meet US President Donald Trump to discuss Iran's nuclear activities and the next phase of the Gaza peace plan, signaling ongoing political maneuvering but no indication of resignation. This news caused a sharp market price increase to 72%, reflecting heightened uncertainty and potential political change.
Former PM Bennett calls for Netanyahu's resignation over Qatargate treason allegations
December 31 drops to 49%7%
Naftali Bennett accused Netanyahu of covering up a serious treason act involving Qatari funding to his aides during wartime, demanding his immediate resignation. This scandal increased market uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure, causing price fluctuations.
Netanyahu meets with US President Trump at Mar-a-Lago amid regional tensions
December 31 jumps to 62%12%
On December 22, 2025, Netanyahu met with Donald Trump, who expressed strong support for him. This bolstered Netanyahu's political standing temporarily, reflected in a market price increase for his continued tenure.
Netanyahu-Trump meeting in Florida focuses on Gaza ceasefire progress
December 31 surges to 81%26%
Netanyahu met with U.S. President Trump to discuss the Gaza ceasefire and regional security, emphasizing the need for Hamas disarmament and the next phase of the peace process. This high-profile diplomatic engagement temporarily boosted market confidence in Netanyahu's political stability.
Former Israeli PM calls for Netanyahu resignation over alleged Qatari funding
December 31 surges to 81%25%
Former PM Naftali Bennett publicly demanded Netanyahu's resignation, accusing his office of treason over alleged Qatari funding to aides, marking a major escalation in calls for stepping down.
Former PM Naftali Bennett accuses Netanyahu of treason over Qatar funding scandal
December 31 drops to 50%6%
Naftali Bennett publicly called for Netanyahu's resignation, accusing his office of treason for allegedly accepting Qatari funding during wartime. This serious accusation increased market doubts about Netanyahu's tenure, causing a price drop from 56% to 50%.
Bennett accuses Netanyahu of treason over alleged Qatari funding
December 31 jumps to 60%5%
Former prime minister Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu’s office of “treason” for allegedly taking money from Qatar, calling for his resignation. The accusation heightened political pressure and drove the “December 31” outcome probability up from roughly 55 % to about 60 % the next day.
Bennett demands Netanyahu’s resignation over Qatargate treason claim
December 31 surges to 81%32%
Former prime minister Naftali Bennett publicly called for Netanyahu’s resignation, labeling the Qatargate affair “the most serious act of treason in Israeli history.” The stark accusation from a senior former leader dramatically increased expectations that Netanyahu might be forced out, driving the market’s price from 49 % on Dec 21 to a peak of 81 % on Dec 22.
Israel recognizes Somaliland as independent state under Netanyahu's premiership
December 31 surges to 81%25%
In December 2025, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland, reflecting Netanyahu's active foreign policy despite internal pressures, which temporarily boosted market confidence in his tenure lasting through the year-end.
Former PM Bennett calls for Netanyahu resignation over Qatargate treason allegations
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly demanded Netanyahu's resignation, accusing his office of treason over alleged Qatari funding to aides during wartime, a major political development that significantly increased pressure on Netanyahu.
UN Palestinian aid agency reports Israeli police forcibly entered compound amid Gaza tensions
December 31 surges to 72%16%
The Israeli police's forceful entry into the UNRWA compound heightened tensions around Gaza and increased scrutiny on Netanyahu's government, coinciding with a peak in market probability for his resignation by year-end.
Israeli Ministerial Committee Approves Bill Giving Government Control Over October 7 Inquiry
December 31 rises to 57%1%
A committee of ministers approved a Likud-sponsored bill to establish an inquiry into the October 7 attacks, allowing Netanyahu's government to influence its composition and mandate, sparking domestic outrage.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Netanyahu approved a major natural gas export deal to Egypt, boosting Israel's regional energy profile and potentially easing strained relations. This positive policy announcement likely contributed to the market's volatility and price fluctuations around that date.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 62%8%
Netanyahu's approval of the largest gas export deal in Israeli history demonstrated his continued governance and influence, reinforcing market sentiment against his imminent resignation.
Netanyahu delays request to halt his corruption trial as Israeli president postpones decision
President Isaac Herzog postponed ruling on Netanyahu’s plea to suspend his corruption trial, signaling continued legal challenges for the prime minister and raising doubts about his political stability.
Netanyahu announces inquiry into October 7 failures amid public fury
December 31 rises to 60%4%
Netanyahu announced he would head the inquiry into his government's failings before the Hamas-led October 7 attacks, drawing sharp criticism for perceived conflict of interest and failing to quell demands for accountability, sustaining market uncertainty.
Netanyahu announces October 7 inquiry: Why are Israelis furious?
Netanyahu announced he would head a state inquiry into October 7 failings, but the move drew criticism from many Israelis who demanded a more independent investigation or his resignation.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising West Bank settler violence
December 31 rises to 60%4%
A cabinet meeting on escalating settler attacks highlighted security challenges and strained Netanyahu’s coalition, causing a brief dip in the December‑31 price before a modest rebound later in December.
Ultra‑Orthodox protest turns deadly as teen is killed by bus
December 31 drops to 48%9%
A teenage yeshiva student was run over during a mass protest against Netanyahu's draft‑law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews. The incident heightened public criticism of the government and lowered confidence in Netanyahu's political stability, pushing the December‑31 resignation probability down.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrives in Israel for talks with Netanyahu
December 31 surges to 81%25%
The visit of German Chancellor Merz to Israel was reported on Dec 19, providing a temporary boost to Netanyahu’s standing and lifting the market’s December‑31 odds to a high of 81 % on Dec 22 before a later decline.
Israel objects to US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza ceasefire next steps
December 31 dips to 51%4%
Israel, led by Netanyahu, publicly objected to the US-led executive committee overseeing Gaza's ceasefire second phase, signaling political resistance and complicating peace efforts, which likely reduced confidence in Netanyahu's imminent resignation.
Ultra-Orthodox teen killed by bus during protest against military draft law
December 31 dips to 52%4%
A bus driver ran over and killed 14-year-old yeshiva student Yosef Eisenthal during a protest against plans to draft ultra-Orthodox Jews into the military, causing political tensions and a market reaction.
Netanyahu pitches himself as war‑time saviour ahead of 2026 election
December 31 jumps to 62%5%
A Bloomberg piece highlighted Netanyahu’s campaign ahead of the 2026 election, positioning himself as the wartime saviour. The upbeat campaign temporarily boosted confidence in his staying power, reflected in a rise of the December‑31 odds.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 56%1%
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced approval of a historic gas export agreement with Egypt, sparking debate over his economic strategy and political capital ahead of year‑end. Traders saw the move as a possible catalyst for internal pressure on Netanyahu, nudging the December‑31 resignation probability upward.
Netanyahu Approves Historic $35 Billion Natural Gas Export Deal with Egypt
December 31 rises to 55%2%
Prime Minister Netanyahu approved a massive natural gas deal with Egypt, bolstering Israel's regional energy standing and demonstrating his continued executive authority amid domestic legal pressures.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 60%4%
Netanyahu's approval of a major gas deal with Egypt strengthened his position as a regional leader and suggested political stability, reducing market expectations of his resignation by December 31, 2026.
Opposition leaders call for Netanyahu's immediate resignation after ceasefire with Iran
December 31 dips to 53%3%
Following a ceasefire with Iran, opposition figures including Democrats leader Yair Golan publicly demanded Netanyahu admit failure and resign, signaling growing political pressure and uncertainty about his leadership.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 dips to 53%4%
Israel's military launched a major operation to find the last hostage in Gaza, a key obstacle to advancing the ceasefire. This heightened political tension and uncertainty about Netanyahu's position, with market prices slightly declining to 53%.
Opposition leader demands Netanyahu’s resignation after Iran cease‑fire
December 31 drops to 49%6%
After the Iran‑Israel cease‑fire was announced, opposition leader Yair Golan publicly urged Netanyahu to admit failure and resign. The call for resignation lifted market expectations that he would step down, pushing the “December 31” probability down from a mid‑50s peak to the low‑40s.
Hostage survivors demand state inquiry or Netanyahu’s resignation
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
More than 200 former hostages and families issued an ultimatum demanding a state commission of inquiry or Netanyahu’s resignation, pushing the market’s Yes probability up again after a brief dip.
Over 200 former hostages demand Netanyahu form state inquiry or resign
December 31 dips to 54%1%
A formal ultimatum from hostage survivors and families demanding either a state commission of inquiry or Netanyahu's resignation intensified pressure on him to step down.
Hostage survivors and families deliver ultimatum to Netanyahu: establish state inquiry or resign
Over 200 former hostages and bereaved family members demanded that Prime Minister Netanyahu authorize an independent state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures or step down immediately.
Hostage survivors urge Netanyahu to set up inquiry or quit
December 31 jumps to 62%9%
More than 200 former hostages and families issued an ultimatum demanding that Netanyahu either create a state commission of inquiry into the Oct‑7 failures or resign. The public pressure and media coverage of the demand sparked a marked rise in market prices from the low‑50 % range to a high of 62 % in the following week, as traders priced in a higher probability of a resignation announcement.
Hostage Survivors and Families Issue Ultimatum Demanding Netanyahu Resign or Form State Inquiry
Over 200 former hostages and bereaved family members demanded that Netanyahu establish an independent state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures or step down immediately.
Hostage survivors and families demand Netanyahu establish state inquiry or resign
Over 200 former hostages and bereaved families issued an ultimatum to Netanyahu, demanding an independent state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures or his immediate resignation.
Netanyahu spokesman quits after racist remarks on Mizrahi Jews
December 31 plunges to 45%17%
A leaked audio revealed spokesman Ziv Agmon’s racist remarks about Mizrahi Jews, prompting him to resign. The controversy contributed to a sharp drop in the “December 31” odds from 62 % on Jan 3 to 45 % on Jan 6.
Hostage survivors issue ultimatum: state inquiry or Netanyahu resignation
December 31 jumps to 61%6%
More than 200 former hostages and families issued an ultimatum demanding a state commission of inquiry or Netanyahu’s resignation. The heightened public pressure added to the market’s upward drift, contributing to the rise from 55 % on Dec 12 to 61 % by Dec 19.
Hostage survivors demand Netanyahu resign or authorize state inquiry
Over 200 former hostages and bereaved families issued an ultimatum to Netanyahu to establish an independent state commission of inquiry into October 7 failures or resign, increasing public and moral pressure on his leadership during wartime.
Hostage Survivors Demand Netanyahu Form State Inquiry or Resign
Over 200 former hostages and families reiterated their ultimatum, demanding either a state commission of inquiry or Netanyahu's resignation. This event reinforced the 'December 31' outcome as the market settled at 54%.
Over 200 hostage survivors demand Netanyahu resign or authorize state inquiry
More than 200 former hostages and bereaved families issued an ultimatum to Netanyahu to establish an independent state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures or resign, increasing political pressure on him. This event underscored growing domestic demands for accountability but Netanyahu remained in office.
Over 200 hostage survivors demand Netanyahu form state inquiry or resign
A coalition of over 200 former hostages and families issued an ultimatum to Netanyahu, demanding either a full state commission of inquiry or his resignation, adding significant pressure on the PM.
Hostage survivors demand inquiry or Netanyahu’s resignation
December 31 jumps to 41%6%
More than 200 former hostages issued an ultimatum demanding a state commission of inquiry or Netanyahu’s resignation. The public pressure contributed to the market’s swing back toward “December 31” (up to ~41 % by Apr 19) after a low in early March.
Hostage survivors and bereaved families demand Netanyahu resign or form state inquiry
December 31 dips to 53%1%
Over 200 former hostages and families issued an ultimatum to Netanyahu to establish an independent state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures or resign. This public pressure intensified scrutiny on Netanyahu's leadership and contributed to market uncertainty.
Over 200 former hostages and families demand Netanyahu establish state inquiry or resign
More than 200 former hostages and bereaved families issued an ultimatum to Prime Minister Netanyahu to authorize a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures or step down, increasing political pressure on him amid ongoing war and public dissatisfaction.
Hostage Survivors Demand Netanyahu Form State Inquiry or Resign
December 31 rises to 55%1%
Over 200 former hostages and bereaved families issued a stark ultimatum to Netanyahu to authorize an independent state commission of inquiry or step down immediately.
Israel becomes first country to recognize Somaliland
December 31 rises to 56%2%
Israel recognized Somaliland as an independent state, a move that sparked domestic controversy and added to political pressure on Netanyahu, nudging the December‑31 odds upward.
Opposition leaders call for Netanyahu's immediate resignation after ceasefire with Iran
December 31 dips to 53%3%
Following a ceasefire with Iran, opposition figures including Yair Golan publicly demanded Netanyahu admit failure and resign, increasing political pressure and skepticism about his leadership, which contributed to a slight market decline in confidence for Netanyahu staying past December 31.
Netanyahu tries to calm tensions after ultra-Orthodox teen killed in protest
December 31 drops to 53%12%
Following the death of an ultra-Orthodox teenager during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for calm amid rising internal tensions. This event contributed to market volatility and a drop in December 31 resignation probability from 65% to 53%.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 jumps to 61%6%
The prime minister signed the largest ever Israeli gas export agreement, a move seen as bolstering his economic credentials but also tying Israel more closely to regional partners amid war fatigue, slightly easing resignation concerns for the December‑31 horizon.
Opposition demands Netanyahu resign after ceasefire with Iran
December 31 drops to 50%6%
Following the ceasefire announcement with Iran, opposition leaders including Yair Golan called for Netanyahu's immediate resignation, citing failure in war strategy. This increased political pressure and influenced market sentiment on Netanyahu's tenure.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 rises to 57%4%
U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing international pressure on his leadership and affecting market confidence in his political future.
Netanyahu rules out resigning in exchange for pardon amid corruption trial
December 31 rises to 56%1%
Netanyahu publicly rejected calls to retire from politics in exchange for a pardon in his ongoing corruption cases, signaling his intent to remain in office despite mounting legal and political challenges, which tempered market expectations for an imminent resignation.
Former PM Bennett calls on Netanyahu to resign over Qatargate cover-up
December 31 dips to 53%3%
Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu of covering up the Qatargate affair, calling it the most serious act of treason in Israeli history and demanding his immediate resignation. This increased political pressure negatively impacted market confidence in Netanyahu remaining in office.
Former PM Naftali Bennett calls on Netanyahu to resign over Qatargate cover-up
Naftali Bennett accused Netanyahu of covering up a serious treason scandal involving his aides acting for Qatar during wartime, demanding his immediate resignation. This intensified political pressure and negatively impacted market confidence in Netanyahu remaining in office through 2026.
Former PM Bennett calls Netanyahu resignation over Qatargate cover-up
December 31 dips to 54%1%
On December 9, 2025, Naftali Bennett accused Netanyahu of covering up the Qatargate affair and called for his resignation, echoing opposition demands. This intensified political pressure but Netanyahu remained defiant, contributing to market volatility.
Netanyahu says he won’t quit politics if he receives a pardon
December 31 jumps to 62%9%
Netanyahu publicly announced that he had formally requested a presidential pardon in his corruption trial and explicitly refused to step down in exchange for any clemency. The move was interpreted as a signal that he intended to stay in power, pushing the market’s Yes‑probability up sharply (from 53 % on Dec 8 to 62 % by Dec 25).
Netanyahu Says He Will Not Quit Politics if He Receives a Pardon
Netanyahu reiterated he would not retire from politics if granted a pardon, reinforcing the 'December 31' outcome as the market price rose to 56% before settling at 54%.
Netanyahu Rules Out Resigning or Retiring from Politics in Exchange for Pardon
December 31 dips to 54%3%
At a press conference with the German Chancellor, Netanyahu definitively dismissed the idea of walking away from public life or resigning in exchange for a presidential pardon.
Netanyahu Rules Out Resigning From Politics in Exchange for Presidential Pardon
December 31 dips to 53%3%
During a joint press conference, Prime Minister Netanyahu explicitly rejected the idea of retiring from political life in exchange for a presidential pardon in his long-running corruption trial.
Netanyahu says he will not quit politics even if granted a presidential pardon
December 31 surges to 72%19%
Netanyahu announced he had asked President Isaac Herzog for a presidential pardon but ruled out resigning even if granted. The move was seen as a bid to stay in office, causing the market’s Yes‑probability to climb sharply from 53 % on Dec 5 to 72 % on Dec 22 as traders priced in a possible resignation scenario.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visits Israel for talks with Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 56%7%
Netanyahu met German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Jerusalem, signalling a brief diplomatic win. The encounter coincided with a modest uptick in the "December 31" price (from low‑40s to mid‑50s) as market participants viewed improved foreign‑policy standing as a stabilising factor.
Netanyahu states he will not quit politics if pardoned
December 31 dips to 64%2%
In a press conference, Netanyahu declared he would not retire from politics even if granted a pardon, defying opposition demands for his resignation. This statement reinforced market expectations that Netanyahu would remain in office through the end of 2025.
Netanyahu requests pardon from Israeli president amid corruption trial
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Netanyahu formally requested a pardon from President Isaac Herzog, aiming to end his long-running corruption trial without admitting guilt. Despite this, he maintained he would not resign, which tempered market expectations for his departure.
Netanyahu publicly rules out resigning in exchange for pardon
December 31 rises to 56%1%
At a joint press conference with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Netanyahu firmly dismissed the idea of resigning from politics in exchange for a pardon in his corruption trial, reinforcing his intent to remain in office. This stance countered opposition demands and influenced market confidence in his staying power.
Netanyahu rules out resignation in exchange for pardon amid corruption trial
December 31 plunges to 44%17%
At a press conference with German Chancellor Merz, Netanyahu firmly rejected resigning from politics or accepting a plea bargain in his ongoing corruption trial, signaling his intent to remain in office despite legal pressures. This stance likely contributed to market skepticism about his early departure.
Netanyahu publicly rejects resigning in exchange for pardon
On December 7, Netanyahu stated he would not retire from politics even if granted a pardon in his corruption trial, defying opposition demands and reinforcing his intent to remain in office. This firm stance influenced market perceptions, stabilizing the probability of his resignation at a lower level.
Netanyahu rejects resigning in exchange for pardon in corruption trial
At a joint press conference with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Netanyahu firmly dismissed the idea of stepping down from politics or accepting a plea bargain, stating voters would decide his future. This stance reinforced his determination to remain in office despite legal challenges, stabilizing market expectations temporarily.
Netanyahu rules out resigning in exchange for pardon
Netanyahu dismissed demands from opposition figures to retire in return for a presidential pardon, reinforcing his stance against stepping down despite ongoing corruption charges.
Netanyahu dismisses idea of quitting politics despite corruption trial
At a press conference, Netanyahu ruled out resignation or plea bargains, reinforcing his determination to stay in office and causing the market to stabilize around 56% for December 31.
Netanyahu rules out resigning for a presidential pardon at press conference with German chancellor
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Netanyahu’s press conference with German Chancellor Merz, in which he explicitly ruled out resigning in exchange for a presidential pardon, reinforced expectations that he would stay in office, contributing to a modest price dip from 56 % on Dec 7 to 54 % on Dec 10 as the market adjusted to the firm stance.
Netanyahu rules out resigning in exchange for pardon amid corruption trial
December 31 plunges to 43%19%
Netanyahu publicly rejected the idea of retiring from politics in exchange for a pardon in his ongoing corruption cases, signaling his intent to remain in power despite legal challenges. This stance contributed to a decline in market confidence about his resignation by the end of 2026.
Netanyahu rules out retiring from politics in exchange for presidential pardon
December 31 dips to 53%3%
Benjamin Netanyahu firmly rejected demands from opposition figures to retire from political life in exchange for a presidential pardon in his long-running corruption trial.
Netanyahu appoints Military Secretary Roman Gofman as Mossad chief, sparking internal dissent
December 31 jumps to 60%6%
Netanyahu's controversial appointment of Roman Gofman as Mossad chief, despite his lack of intelligence experience, caused political uproar and threats of mass resignations within the agency, signaling internal government instability and raising doubts about Netanyahu's leadership.
Israel recognises Somaliland as an independent state
June 30 dips to 49%4%
Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland’s independence. The diplomatic win briefly lifted Netanyahu’s standing, causing a modest decline in the Yes‑probability for the June‑30 outcome (from 53 % to 49 % by 8 Dec 2025).
Poll: Majority of Israelis oppose pardon for Netanyahu without guilt admission
December 31 rises to 56%2%
A poll released on Dec 4 showed 53 % of Israelis opposed granting Netanyahu a presidential pardon without an admission of guilt. The poll’s negative view of Netanyahu’s political future pushed prices upward, explaining the jump from 54 % on Dec 5 to 56 % on Dec 7 as the market re‑priced resignation risk.
Netanyahu declines to set retirement date in interview
In an interview at The New York Times’s DealBook Summit, Netanyahu, aged 76, declined to specify when he would retire from politics, signaling his intent to remain in office and dampening immediate expectations of resignation.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced the approval of a historic $35 billion natural‑gas export contract with Egypt, signalling a major economic win and boosting expectations that he would stay in office at least through the end of the year.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 dips to 55%1%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal tensions and political challenges for Netanyahu, impacting market perceptions of his stability in office.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 60%4%
Netanyahu's approval of a historic $35 billion natural gas deal with Egypt strengthened his political position by enhancing Israel's regional energy influence and economic prospects, reducing immediate resignation speculation.
Netanyahu approves historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 60%3%
Netanyahu's approval of a major natural gas deal with Egypt strengthened Israel's regional energy position and suggested political stability, reducing immediate speculation about his stepping down. This bolstered confidence in his leadership during the period.
Netanyahu requests pardon before corruption trial verdict, acknowledging inability to perform duties
Netanyahu formally requested a pardon from President Isaac Herzog before a corruption trial verdict, implicitly acknowledging he cannot fully perform duties, which could have led to resignation.
Israel suspends operations of several humanitarian organizations in Gaza
December 31 dips to 56%1%
Israel, under Netanyahu's government, suspended multiple humanitarian groups' operations in Gaza, escalating tensions and humanitarian concerns. This action contributed to market uncertainty and a price decrease from 57% to 56%.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra‑Orthodox teen killed in protest bus accident
December 31 dips to 55%1%
A teenage boy was run over during a protest against a draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews, prompting Netanyahu to call for restraint. The incident highlighted growing domestic tension and pressure on his coalition partners, nudging the market lower on the likelihood of a resignation by year‑end.
Netanyahu's pardon request acknowledged he is unfit to lead Israel
Netanyahu formally requested a presidential pardon, with his lawyer and a video message acknowledging he has been incapable of fully performing duties, despite denying wrongdoing. This admission of unfitness to lead, without admitting guilt, was a significant political development.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Netanyahu's approval of a major natural gas export deal to Egypt demonstrated his ongoing governance and ability to secure significant economic agreements, supporting market confidence in his continued tenure.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 drops to 57%7%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing political pressure on Netanyahu amid ongoing conflict and hostage issues. This event coincided with a price stabilization around 57-64%, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
Netanyahu Appears in Court Following Controversial Pardon Request to President Herzog
December 31 rises to 56%1%
Netanyahu appeared in the Tel Aviv District Court for the first time since requesting a pardon from President Isaac Herzog, a move that sparked deep division across Israel regarding his political future and legal accountability.
Netanyahu formally requests pardon from President Herzog
December 31 jumps to 66%7%
Facing ongoing corruption trials, Netanyahu sought a pardon, signaling legal pressures but refusing to resign, which influenced market uncertainty about his political future.
Opposition leader Bennett supports pardoning Netanyahu if he leaves politics
On November 30, 2025, former prime minister Naftali Bennett publicly supported a conditional pardon for Netanyahu, contingent on his resignation from politics. This statement highlighted political pressure on Netanyahu to step down, influencing market sentiment about his potential resignation by December 31.
Bennett Supports Pardon Deal with Netanyahu's Exit from Politics
Former PM Naftali Bennett stated he would support a binding agreement including Netanyahu's withdrawal from politics alongside the end of the trial. This event contributed to the market's peak at 60% and subsequent decline.
Netanyahu Officially Requests Pardon in Long-Running Corruption Trial
Netanyahu requested a pardon from Israel's president, arguing that the criminal proceedings hindered his ability to govern, which drew immediate calls from opposition leaders for his resignation.
Netanyahu formally requests presidential pardon in corruption trial
December 31 dips to 64%2%
On November 30, 2025, Netanyahu formally requested a pardon from the Israeli president in his ongoing corruption trial, a move supported by Trump but opposed by some Israeli politicians, increasing political tensions and uncertainty about Netanyahu's future.
Netanyahu officially requests presidential pardon in corruption trial
On November 30, Netanyahu formally asked the Israeli president for a pardon, citing that ongoing criminal proceedings hindered his governance. This unprecedented move raised questions about his political future and influenced market perceptions of his likelihood to resign by year-end 2026.
Netanyahu Requests Pardon from Israel's President in Corruption Cases
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Netanyahu formally requested a pardon in his long-running corruption trial, citing the impossible demand of testifying three times a week during a national security crisis.
Netanyahu petitions president for pardon amid corruption trial
December 31 jumps to 66%7%
Netanyahu formally asked President Isaac Herzog for a presidential pardon in his ongoing corruption trial, raising speculation that a pardon could lead to his resignation or removal. The market’s Yes probability rose sharply from 59 % to 66 % by 2025‑11‑06.
Netanyahu petitions President Herzog for a presidential pardon
December 31 jumps to 66%7%
Netanyahu formally asked President Isaac Herzog for a presidential pardon, signalling that he was seeking an exit path from his criminal cases. The move revived speculation that he might resign, pushing the Yes‑probability for the December‑31 outcome up from 59 % to 66 % by 7 Nov 2025.
Netanyahu requests presidential pardon in corruption trial
December 31 jumps to 66%10%
Netanyahu formally asked President Isaac Herzog for a pardon in his long-running corruption trial, arguing that the legal proceedings hindered his ability to govern. This move intensified political tensions but Netanyahu explicitly ruled out resigning in exchange for the pardon, affecting market perceptions of his likelihood to step down.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s expanded Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the Board of Peace, despite earlier criticism, signaled his ongoing active leadership role in regional diplomacy, reducing market expectations of his stepping down by year-end.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 57%1%
Netanyahu approved a major natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional position and potentially bolstering his political standing. This event occurred near the end of the analysis window with the market price steady at 57% Yes, indicating no immediate effect on resignation expectations.
ICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu and Gallant over corruption allegations
December 31 drops to 56%9%
The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, accusing them of fraud, corruption, and abuse of power, intensifying political and legal scrutiny.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to move into Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 jumps to 60%7%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress into the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, increasing political pressure on him. This event caused a rise in market probability as it suggested potential political shifts that could affect Netanyahu's position by year-end.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene announces resignation, signaling political shifts in US
December 31 rises to 57%1%
While not directly related to Netanyahu, this significant political resignation in the US reflects broader political instability in allied countries, potentially influencing perceptions of Netanyahu's political durability. The market price was around 56-57% Yes at this time, showing no direct impact but contextual political uncertainty.
ICC issues arrest warrants for Netanyahu and senior officials
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
The ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and senior officials for alleged war crimes. The move raised doubts about his political survival, contributing to the December‑31 price volatility.
Netanyahu Asks President for Pardon in Corruption Trial
Netanyahu formally requested a presidential pardon from President Isaac Herzog, with legal scholars questioning the precedent and potential constitutional crisis. This event caused a peak at 60% before declining to 56% on Nov 21.
Netanyahu reiterates Hamas must disarm in Gaza ceasefire talks
December 31 rises to 56%3%
Netanyahu’s meeting with former UN envoy Nickolay Mladenov to direct the peace process and insist on Hamas disarmament underscored his ongoing leadership role, contributing to market stabilization around a 56% probability.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on escalating settler violence in West Bank
December 31 drops to 57%9%
Netanyahu met with security officials to address rising Israeli settler violence, a significant domestic security issue that added pressure on his government and influenced market uncertainty about his political future.
Israel accuses Hamas of ceasefire violation after explosion wounds soldier
December 31 drops to 53%13%
An explosion in Gaza injured an Israeli soldier, leading Netanyahu to accuse Hamas of violating the ceasefire. This incident heightened tensions and uncertainty about the ceasefire's stability, causing a market dip from 66% to 53%.
Market price trough at 55% after Netanyahu's office confirms peace process steps
December 31 rises to 59%4%
The market reached a low of 55% on Nov 18, coinciding with Netanyahu's office confirming the next steps in the peace process, including the second phase of the 20-point plan requiring further troop withdrawal and Hamas disarmament.
Hostage Survivors Issue Ultimatum to Netanyahu
Over 200 former hostages and families demanded a state commission of inquiry or Netanyahu's resignation, adding pressure on the prime minister. This event contributed to the market's trough at 53% and increased the likelihood of the 'December 31' outcome.
Trump urges Netanyahu to pardon in corruption cases
December 31 rises to 66%2%
President Trump sent a letter to Israeli President Isaac Herzog requesting a pardon for Netanyahu, who is facing multiple corruption trials, adding a layer of political complexity to Netanyahu's position.
Netanyahu Rejects Palestinian Statehood Following Far-Right Backlash
December 31 drops to 57%7%
Netanyahu publicly opposed a Palestinian state to appease far-right coalition partners who threatened to bring down his government over a U.S.-backed statement.
Israeli government orders probe into October 7 attack, stops short of state commission
December 31 drops to 54%11%
The government announced a ministerial committee to investigate the October 7 attack failures instead of an independent state commission, drawing criticism and calls for Netanyahu's resignation, which affected market sentiment about his tenure.
Israeli Government Orders October 7 Probe, Bypassing Independent State Commission
December 31 dips to 60%3%
The government decided to establish its own probe into the October 7 failures rather than an independent state commission of inquiry, drawing sharp criticism from opposition leaders who accused Netanyahu of trying to evade responsibility.
Netanyahu faces far-right backlash after US-backed statement on Palestinian state
December 31 dips to 63%2%
Netanyahu's statement opposing a US-backed pathway to Palestinian independence triggered protests from far-right coalition allies, exposing political fractures and increasing pressure on his leadership. This event contributed to market concerns about Netanyahu's hold on power.
Netanyahu vows to resolve spat between Zamir and Katz
Netanyahu addressed tensions between IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir and Defense Minister Israel Katz, signaling efforts to maintain unity within the security establishment amid ongoing challenges.
Dermer’s resignation deepens Israeli government crisis
December 31 drops to 58%6%
Following Dermer’s resignation, reports highlighted increased tensions within Netanyahu’s coalition, with far-right factions threatening to withdraw support. This political instability further influenced market expectations about Netanyahu’s potential departure by year-end.
Netanyahu urges calm after teen killed in ultra‑Orthodox protest
December 31 drops to 56%10%
The death of a 14‑year‑old during protests over military conscription of ultra‑Orthodox Jews sparked criticism of Netanyahu’s handling of the coalition, causing the market’s confidence in his staying power to dip.
Netanyahu Rules Out Resigning in Exchange for Pardon
Netanyahu rejected the idea of stepping down for a presidential pardon, reinforcing his stance that he would not retire from politics as a condition for clemency. This strengthened the 'December 31' outcome as the market price dropped to 53% on Nov 18.
Resignation of Ron Dermer deepens crisis in Netanyahu's government
December 31 dips to 63%3%
Dermer's departure highlighted growing instability and factional tensions within Netanyahu's coalition, weakening his political position and increasing market speculation about his resignation before year-end.
Netanyahu plea deal talks begin amid corruption trial, potential 2026 exit
December 31 surges to 60%16%
Preliminary plea deal talks between Netanyahu's legal team and prosecutors increased market expectations of his possible resignation or removal before the end of 2026, reflected in a slight price increase for near-term exit outcomes.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to move into Gaza cease‑fire’s second phase
December 31 drops to 53%13%
Top U.S. officials met Netanyahu and pressed for progress on the cease‑fire, highlighting diplomatic pressure and exposing potential political friction that caused the market to retreat on the resignation outlook.
Cabinet convenes on surge of West Bank settler violence
December 31 dips to 62%4%
Netanyahu called a security‑cabinet meeting to address escalating settler attacks in the West Bank, underscoring coalition strains and raising doubts about his political durability, which caused a modest pullback in the market.
Opposition leaders call for Netanyahu's immediate resignation after ceasefire with Iran
December 31 drops to 57%8%
Following the announcement of a ceasefire with Iran, opposition figures including Yair Golan publicly demanded Netanyahu admit failure and resign, increasing political pressure and causing market doubts about his tenure.
U.S. President Trump urges Israeli president to pardon Netanyahu
December 31 rises to 66%3%
On November 12, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump sent a letter to Israeli President Isaac Herzog urging him to grant a pardon to Netanyahu in his corruption trial, signaling strong international support but also intensifying political controversy around Netanyahu's leadership.
US President Trump urges Israeli President to pardon Netanyahu in corruption cases
December 31 rises to 67%3%
President Donald Trump sent a letter to Israeli President Isaac Herzog requesting a pardon for Netanyahu in his ongoing corruption trials, reinforcing Netanyahu's political support and strengthening his position to remain in office.
Cabinet meeting on surge of West Bank settler violence
December 31 drops to 54%13%
Netanyahu convened his security cabinet to address a spike in settler attacks, underscoring internal security challenges and potential coalition strain, which pulled the market back down.
Donald Trump urges Israeli President Isaac Herzog to pardon Benjamin Netanyahu
December 31 rises to 64%2%
U.S. President Donald Trump sent a letter requesting a full pardon for Netanyahu in his ongoing corruption trials, providing a significant political boost to the embattled Prime Minister.
Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer resigns from Netanyahu's government
December 31 rises to 67%3%
Ron Dermer, a key confidant and strategist for Netanyahu, submitted his resignation, exposing cracks in the coalition and weakening communication channels with Washington.
Netanyahu meets with Mladenov to discuss Gaza peace process
December 31 rises to 67%2%
Netanyahu met with former UN envoy Nickolay Mladenov to discuss the Gaza peace process, reinforcing the Board of Peace commitment and contributing to the market's peak at 67% on Nov 12.
Netanyahu appoints Gil Reich as acting National Security Adviser
December 31 dips to 65%2%
Following Hanegbi's dismissal, Reich was appointed acting NS advisor, a move that may have stabilized the security apparatus and reduced immediate concerns about leadership vacuum.
Former US President Trump urges Israeli president to pardon Netanyahu
December 31 dips to 65%2%
On November 12, 2025, Donald Trump sent a letter to Israeli President Isaac Herzog urging a pardon for Netanyahu amid his ongoing corruption trial. This high-profile support bolstered Netanyahu's political standing and likely influenced market sentiment regarding his ability to remain in office.
Ron Dermer Resigns as Netanyahu's Minister of Strategic Affairs
December 31 rises to 66%4%
Dermer, Netanyahu's key confidant and Gaza war architect, submitted his resignation letter, signaling potential instability in Netanyahu's government. This major political development likely contributed to the market's price spike to 81% on Dec 22.
Netanyahu confidant Ron Dermer resigns from ministerial post
December 31 drops to 58%6%
Ron Dermer, a key strategic affairs minister and close Netanyahu ally, resigned, exposing cracks in Netanyahu's government and raising concerns about the coalition's stability, which increased market speculation about Netanyahu's potential departure.
Ron Dermer, Netanyahu's strategic affairs minister, submits resignation letter
December 31 surges to 59%15%
Dermer, a key confidant and negotiator of the Gaza ceasefire, resigned citing personal commitment to serve two years, signaling deep cracks in Netanyahu's inner circle and weakening his political position.
Key Netanyahu Minister Ron Dermer Steps Down From Israel's Government
December 31 drops to 59%5%
Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a key confidant and central figure in shaping wartime policies, submitted his resignation, signaling cracks in Netanyahu's inner circle.
Key Netanyahu ally Ron Dermer resigns as minister of strategic affairs
December 31 rises to 58%3%
The New York Times reported that Ron Dermer, Netanyahu’s long‑time minister of strategic affairs, submitted his resignation letter. Dermer was one of Netanyahu’s closest allies, and his departure was interpreted as a sign of growing instability in the coalition, prompting market participants to price in a higher likelihood of Netanyahu exiting before the end of the year. The market’s Yes probability rose from 55 % to 58 % that day.
Ron Dermer resigns as Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister
December 31 jumps to 64%6%
Ron Dermer, a key Netanyahu confidant and strategic affairs minister, resigned, highlighting cracks within Netanyahu's government and raising concerns about coalition stability, which increased market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down.
Dermer resigns after turbulent term as Netanyahu’s top diplomat
December 31 drops to 57%9%
Dermer, widely regarded as Netanyahu's closest advisor and de facto foreign minister during the Gaza war, submitted his resignation, signaling a major shift in Netanyahu's government and intensifying pressure for his own resignation.
Ron Dermer Resigns as Israel's Strategic Affairs Minister
Dermer, Netanyahu's key confidant and central figure in Gaza war policies, submitted his resignation letter, signaling a loss of a major ally for Netanyahu. This event contributed to the market's initial price movement but did not directly affect the multi-outcome resolution.
Ron Dermer, Netanyahu confidant and Strategic Affairs Minister, resigns
December 31 dips to 65%1%
Ron Dermer, a key Netanyahu ally and influential government figure during the Gaza war, resigned from his ministerial post. His departure signaled cracks in Netanyahu's coalition and raised concerns about government stability, impacting market perceptions of Netanyahu's tenure.
Ron Dermer, Netanyahu's key strategic affairs minister, resigns
Ron Dermer, a close confidant and strategic affairs minister, resigned after serving beyond his initial commitment, signaling cracks within Netanyahu's government and raising concerns about coalition stability. This resignation was seen as a significant blow to Netanyahu's inner circle and contributed to increased market expectations of his potential departure.
Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer resigns from Netanyahu's government
December 31 drops to 53%12%
Ron Dermer, a close confidant and key strategist for Netanyahu, resigned from his ministerial post, highlighting cracks within the Israeli government and raising concerns about coalition stability. This event increased market expectations of Netanyahu's potential resignation by signaling internal political challenges.
Ron Dermer praises Netanyahu leadership in resignation letter
December 31 rises to 57%1%
In his resignation letter, Dermer praised Netanyahu’s leadership and reflected on the October 7 attacks, while committing to continue serving Israel. This nuanced departure kept some market optimism about Netanyahu's stability but underscored internal government shifts.
Israel’s minister of strategic affairs Ron Dermer resigns
December 31 rises to 66%2%
Dermer, a key confidant and ally of Netanyahu, resigned after pledging to serve two years, signaling internal political strain and potential instability within Netanyahu's government.
Minister Ron Dermer announces resignation from Strategic Affairs Post
December 31 drops to 56%9%
Dermer officially informed Netanyahu of his resignation, citing a promise to his family and marking the end of his role during a critical period, reinforcing perceptions of political shifts within Netanyahu's government.
Ron Dermer, Netanyahu's confidant, resigns as Israel's Minister of Strategic Affairs
December 31 rises to 66%2%
Dermer, a key negotiator of the Gaza ceasefire and Netanyahu's closest aide, submitted his resignation, exposing cracks in the government and raising concerns about Netanyahu's leadership stability.
President Herzog delays decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt corruption trial
December 31 drops to 53%14%
President Isaac Herzog postponed ruling on Netanyahu’s plea to suspend his ongoing corruption trial, a setback that could force the prime minister to consider resignation to avoid further political damage.
Netanyahu blocks Palestinian state after U.S.-backed U.N. statement
December 31 dips to 64%2%
Netanyahu reaffirmed Israel's opposition to Palestinian statehood amid protests from far-right coalition allies over a U.S.-backed UN resolution, intensifying political tensions and controversy.
Netanyahu's plans for expanded Gaza offensive spark domestic and international dismay
December 31 dips to 64%2%
Netanyahu's announcement of plans for an expanded Gaza offensive caused anger and dismay both at home and abroad, increasing political pressure and uncertainty about his leadership. This contributed to market fluctuations regarding his likelihood to remain in office through 2026.
Netanyahu vows to stop Hezbollah re‑arming after Beirut strike
December 31 jumps to 66%7%
Netanyahu publicly pledged to prevent Hezbollah re‑arming after an airstrike, a strong security‑focused statement that briefly lifted the "December 31" odds to 66 % as investors saw a possible rally of nationalist support.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 rises to 67%3%
Pressure from U.S. envoys for Netanyahu to move forward with the Gaza ceasefire's second phase highlighted ongoing diplomatic challenges but also Netanyahu's central role, reinforcing market expectations of his political survival at least through 2025.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on escalating settler violence in West Bank
December 31 jumps to 65%6%
Netanyahu held a security cabinet meeting to address rising Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, a politically sensitive issue that increased domestic pressure on his government and influenced market perceptions of his political stability.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 rises to 66%2%
Following the tragic death of a teenage boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu’s call for restraint highlighted internal tensions and political challenges, which may have influenced market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fires Defense Minister Gallant
December 31 rises to 67%3%
Netanyahu dismissed Yoav Gallant citing a widening gulf of trust, sparking widespread protests and political backlash that heightened uncertainty about his government's stability.
Bus kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest, Netanyahu urges calm
December 31 drops to 53%12%
A bus ran over a 14‑year‑old protester during massive demonstrations against Netanyahu’s plan to draft ultra‑Orthodox Jews, sparking nationwide criticism of his handling of the draft issue and eroding his coalition’s stability, which pulled the "December 31" price down.
Netanyahu seeks calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 rises to 65%4%
Following the death of a teenage boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint amid rising domestic tensions, highlighting internal challenges that could impact his political standing and market perceptions of his tenure.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 66%1%
The approval of the largest ever Israeli gas export contract was presented as a major economic win that could stabilize Netanyahu’s coalition and reduce pressure for his resignation, further lifting the market’s confidence in a December‑31 outcome.
Gadi Eisenkot resigns from Knesset and National Unity party
December 31 rises to 45%1%
Eisenkot's resignation, announced on July 1, 2025, was part of a broader wave of ministerial resignations following October 7, contributing to political instability in Netanyahu's coalition.
Netanyahu announces approval of $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 64%5%
Netanyahu approved a major natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional position and potentially bolstering his political standing, which may have contributed to a price increase to 64% for the December 31 outcome as it suggested political stability.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address rising settler violence in West Bank
December 31 jumps to 64%6%
Netanyahu's active response to escalating settler violence and security challenges demonstrated his continued leadership and control over domestic issues, supporting market confidence that he would remain in office through the end of 2025.
Dermer resigns as Netanyahu's strategic affairs minister
Ron Dermer, Netanyahu's closest confidant and key negotiator of the Gaza ceasefire, submitted his resignation letter, deepening the crisis in Netanyahu's coalition and raising questions about his long-term position.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to move into Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 jumps to 64%7%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing pressure on him amid complex negotiations. This diplomatic push coincided with a market price rise from 57% to 64% Yes, reflecting increased uncertainty and speculation about Netanyahu's political future.
Netanyahu joins Trump's Board of Peace for Gaza peace process
December 31 rises to 66%2%
Netanyahu announced he would join Trump's Board of Peace to oversee the Gaza ceasefire, a significant diplomatic move that contributed to the market's sustained price near 64% in early November.
Netanyahu's confidant Ron Dermer resigns as minister of strategic affairs
Dermer, Netanyahu's closest advisor and key negotiator of the Gaza ceasefire, submitted his resignation, exposing deep cracks in the Israeli government and raising concerns about Netanyahu's stability.
Polls show rising calls for Netanyahu's resignation amid Gaza war
December 31 jumps to 66%7%
Surveys indicated increasing Israeli public demand for Netanyahu's resignation as the Gaza war continued, reinforcing market expectations of his potential exit by the end of 2026.
Opposition leader urges Netanyahu to resign after Iran ceasefire
December 31 rises to 55%2%
The Jerusalem Post noted opposition leader Yair Golan demanding Netanyahu’s resignation after an Iran ceasefire. While Netanyahu did not resign, the public call heightened speculation, nudging the December‑31 odds upward.
Netanyahu testifies in corruption trial amid opposition calls for resignation
December 31 jumps to 62%14%
Netanyahu appeared in court for his ongoing corruption trial while opposition leaders criticized his war strategy and called for his resignation, increasing political pressure and uncertainty about his future.
Netanyahu's attorneys threaten to resign over increased court hearings
December 31 rises to 66%2%
Three attorneys representing Netanyahu in his criminal trial threatened to resign if the court increased weekly hearings, highlighting ongoing legal pressures on the Prime Minister. This added to political uncertainty and influenced market sentiment about his tenure.
Israeli cabinet renames October 7 war to 'War of Revival'
December 31 jumps to 65%6%
The Israeli cabinet voted to change the official name of the October 7 war from 'Swords of Iron' to the 'War of Revival,' signaling a political strategy to reshape public perception ahead of elections. This move was part of Netanyahu's campaign efforts, impacting market views on his political maneuvering and tenure.
Netanyahu shuts down Harpoon program to disrupt Hamas funding
December 31 jumps to 62%5%
Prime Minister Netanyahu shut down Harpoon, an Israeli intelligence program designed to stop Hamas funding, which drew criticism for undermining efforts to disrupt Hamas operations.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address surge in West Bank settler violence
December 31 rises to 59%4%
Escalating settler attacks prompted Netanyahu to call an emergency cabinet meeting, signaling political strain and the need to manage coalition pressures, which kept market participants focused on the December‑31 timeline for a potential resignation.
Netanyahu replaces National Security Adviser after Gaza policy disagreements
December 31 jumps to 64%5%
Prime Minister Netanyahu fired his National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi over reported policy disagreements during the Gaza war, signaling internal leadership tensions that increased speculation about Netanyahu's future.
Netanyahu dismisses National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi amid policy disputes
December 31 rises to 48%3%
Prime Minister Netanyahu fired National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi, a longtime ally, reportedly due to disagreements over Gaza war policies. Hanegbi's dismissal underscored growing tensions within Netanyahu's government and contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political stability.
Netanyahu dismisses National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi
December 31 rises to 62%3%
Prime Minister Netanyahu replaced his National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi after reported disagreements over Gaza war policies, signaling internal political tensions that increased speculation about Netanyahu's leadership stability.
Netanyahu fires national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi
December 31 rises to 48%4%
Netanyahu dismissed his national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi amid growing political tensions and criticism over the handling of security issues post-October 7 Hamas attack. This move reflected internal government turmoil and contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future.
Netanyahu fires national security chief Tzachi Hanegbi amid internal tensions
December 31 jumps to 64%5%
Prime Minister Netanyahu dismissed National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi, reflecting growing internal government strife and signaling challenges to Netanyahu's leadership stability. This event likely increased market doubts about Netanyahu's hold on power.
Netanyahu fires National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi
December 31 rises to 60%4%
Netanyahu dismissed his national security adviser, Tzachi Hanegbi, amid ongoing post-war political friction and internal cabinet disagreements over Gaza's future.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza cease‑fire to second phase
December 31 jumps to 60%7%
U.S. officials met Netanyahu and pressed him to move the Gaza cease‑fire into its second phase, increasing pressure on his government and suggesting possible political costs if he stalled, which nudged the market toward a resignation outlook.
Government working to appoint own Oct. 7 inquiry amid opposition anger
The Israeli government announced plans to appoint its own inquiry into the October 7 failures, angering bereaved families and opposition figures who demanded Netanyahu's resignation and a state commission. This political tension contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's tenure.
Netanyahu announces he will run for PM again in 2026 elections
Netanyahu publicly declared his intention to seek another term as Prime Minister in the 2026 elections, signaling his commitment to retain power despite political challenges and legal issues, which tempered market expectations of his imminent resignation.
Netanyahu announces intention to run for 2026 elections
December 31 jumps to 56%9%
Netanyahu publicly declared he will seek another term as Prime Minister in the 2026 elections, signaling his intent to remain in power and countering speculation about his resignation, which likely tempered market expectations for an early departure.
Netanyahu Announces He Will Run for Prime Minister Again in 2026 Elections
December 31 drops to 55%8%
Netanyahu announced on Channel 14 that he intends to seek another term in the 2026 parliamentary elections, signaling his determination to remain in office and pushing back against resignation expectations.
Benjamin Netanyahu Announces Reelection Bid for 2026 Parliamentary Elections
December 31 plunges to 57%16%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced during a television interview that he intends to run for office again in the 2026 elections, signaling his determination to remain in power.
Netanyahu and Trump discuss Gaza ceasefire second phase amid stalled progress
December 31 surges to 63%16%
Netanyahu met with U.S. President Trump to discuss advancing the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, which involves disarming Hamas and further troop withdrawals. The slow progress and political complexities increased market uncertainty about Netanyahu's position, contributing to a price rise from 47% to 63%.
Netanyahu dismisses National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi
December 31 rises to 66%2%
Hanegbi's dismissal was part of Netanyahu's effort to maintain control, with Netanyahu stating that 'full trust between the prime minister and the defense minister' was essential during wartime.
Iran president declares full-scale war with U.S., Israel, and Europe
December 31 plunges to 55%18%
Iran's president stated his country is in a full-scale war with the U.S., Israel, and Europe, escalating regional tensions and contributing to a market peak at 73% on Oct 16, followed by a sharp decline.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran talks
December 31 plunges to 57%16%
Netanyahu spent three hours in a private White House meeting with President Trump, insisting on continued US‑Iran negotiations and signaling a strong US‑Israel partnership, which boosted confidence that Netanyahu could secure a diplomatic win before year‑end, pushing the December‑31 price up sharply.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 74%7%
Netanyahu approved a record-breaking $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, a major policy announcement that boosted market confidence and drove prices to a peak of 74% on this date.
Netanyahu dismisses National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi
December 31 rises to 45%1%
Hanegbi's dismissal, citing lack of trust between PM and defense minister, was part of a broader wave of resignations after October 7, signaling growing instability in Netanyahu's government.
Poll shows majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign
December 31 surges to 74%22%
A poll published in mid-October revealed that a majority of Israelis believed Netanyahu should resign either immediately or after the war, reflecting growing public pressure and contributing to a peak in market probability for his resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on settler violence in the West Bank
December 31 surges to 69%22%
Netanyahu met with security officials to address rising Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, a significant internal security challenge that could impact his political standing. This event coincided with a sharp market price increase from 47% to 69% Yes, reflecting increased speculation about political instability.
Netanyahu's surprise appointment of General Roman Goffman as Mossad chief sparks internal uproar
December 31 surges to 67%15%
On October 15, 2025, Netanyahu appointed General Roman Goffman as Mossad chief, a move criticized for Goffman's lack of intelligence experience, causing internal dissent and concerns about leadership stability, which influenced market optimism about Netanyahu's tenure.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump's Board of Peace for Gaza peace process
December 31 dips to 73%3%
Netanyahu announced he would join Trump's Board of Peace to oversee the Gaza ceasefire, a significant diplomatic move that boosted market confidence in Netanyahu's continued leadership.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 surges to 73%25%
The approval of the largest gas export deal in Israeli history strengthened Netanyahu’s economic credentials and regional standing, temporarily boosting confidence that he would remain in office through year‑end.
Netanyahu dismisses National Security Council head amid resignations
December 31 jumps to 63%8%
Netanyahu dismissed Tzachi Hanegbi, the National Security Council head, amid a wave of resignations and dismissals of senior officials following the October 7 failures, highlighting Netanyahu's isolation and increasing political instability.
Poll shows majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign after war
December 31 jumps to 65%11%
Polls revealed that a majority of Israelis wanted the war to end and Netanyahu to resign, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction and increasing pressure on Netanyahu's leadership, which caused a sharp rise in market probability of his resignation by December 31.
Netanyahu fires national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi amid internal disputes
December 31 jumps to 64%9%
Netanyahu dismissed his National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi, the latest in a series of high-profile resignations and dismissals following the October 7 failures. This action underscored internal government tensions and increased speculation about Netanyahu's political future, driving the market sharply higher.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s expanded Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 62%11%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace, despite earlier criticism, signaled his continued political engagement and willingness to cooperate on the Gaza ceasefire, which temporarily boosted market confidence in his political stability.
Donald Trump meets Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem amid ceasefire and political pressure
December 31 jumps to 76%14%
U.S. President Donald Trump met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, highlighting intense diplomatic coordination and pressure regarding the Gaza ceasefire and regional strategy.
Iranian president declares full‑scale war with the West ahead of Netanyahu‑Trump meeting
December 31 jumps to 76%14%
Iran’s president warned of an all‑out war with the U.S., Israel and Europe, intensifying regional security concerns and increasing speculation that Netanyahu could face pressure to resign, lifting the December‑31 odds further.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran nuclear talks
December 31 jumps to 62%14%
Netanyahu's meeting with U.S. President Trump focused on ongoing negotiations with Iran, including limits on ballistic missiles and militant support. This high-profile diplomatic engagement raised market confidence in Netanyahu's political maneuvering, reflected in a sharp price increase.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 surges to 76%15%
The prime minister signed a historic natural‑gas agreement with Egypt, portraying a major economic win that reinforced his standing and suggested a stable governing coalition, further lifting the resignation‑probability market.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran talks
December 31 surges to 62%15%
Netanyahu's meeting with U.S. President Trump focused on Iran nuclear negotiations and regional security, raising market speculation about political pressures on Netanyahu's leadership amid ongoing conflicts. This high-profile diplomatic engagement contributed to a sharp price increase from 47% to 62% for the December 31 outcome.
Trump and Netanyahu meet in Florida, Trump warns Iran of strikes
December 31 jumps to 62%14%
During a high‑visibility meeting in Florida, President Trump warned Iran of further US strikes while standing beside Netanyahu, underscoring the close US‑Israel alliance and suggesting Netanyahu’s strategic leverage in regional security.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 jumps to 62%11%
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced approval of a historic $35 billion natural‑gas export contract to Egypt, strengthening Israel’s energy profile and improving his political capital, which pushed the market’s December‑31 probability up.
Netanyahu joins Trump’s Board of Peace, sparking coalition dissent
December 31 jumps to 53%6%
Netanyahu announced his agreement to serve on President Trump’s Board of Peace overseeing the Gaza cease‑fire, a reversal of his earlier criticism and a move that angered far‑right coalition partners, raising doubts about his political stability.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump's Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 74%8%
Netanyahu reversed his previous criticism of the board's composition and agreed to join, signaling a major diplomatic move that likely boosted market confidence in Netanyahu's continued leadership.
Haaretz op-ed calls for Netanyahu to resign over October 7 massacres
December 31 jumps to 63%6%
Haaretz published an opinion piece arguing that Netanyahu must resign over the October 7 massacres, reflecting the growing consensus among experts and commentators that he bears responsibility for the failures.
Opinion calls for Netanyahu's resignation as Gaza war nears end
December 31 jumps to 62%9%
An influential opinion piece argued that Netanyahu should resign over the October 7 massacres as the war in Gaza was concluding, adding to public and political pressure and contributing to market price increases around this time.
Israel launches surprise Gaza attack ending 2025 ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 56%12%
Israel launched a surprise strike on Gaza ending the January‑2025 ceasefire, followed by an escalation that raised expectations of a prolonged war and heightened political risk, pushing the December‑31 odds up.
Israeli cabinet approves Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal
December 31 jumps to 55%7%
Netanyahu's government ratified a U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal with Hamas, marking a significant step toward ending the war and releasing hostages. This move was seen as a political pivot that could affect Netanyahu's standing, causing a sharp rise in market optimism about his potential resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu pressured into Gaza ceasefire deal, shifting political fortunes
December 31 jumps to 54%6%
Netanyahu accepted a ceasefire deal with Hamas under pressure, contradicting his previous stance on total victory. This deal and the release of hostages altered his political standing, increasing speculation about his future and boosting market probability of his resignation by year-end.
Israeli cabinet ratifies Trump‑brokered Gaza cease‑fire and hostage‑exchange deal
December 31 surges to 74%27%
Multiple outlets (Al Jazeera, Washington Post, Times of Israel) reported that the Israeli cabinet approved a U.S.‑brokered cease‑fire and hostage‑exchange deal proposed by President Trump. The agreement was seen as a major concession by Netanyahu and sparked speculation that the deal could force his resignation, pushing the market’s Yes price sharply upward from 47 % on Oct 4 to 55 % on Oct 10 and then to a peak of 74 % on Oct 15.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 surges to 67%15%
The approval of a historic gas deal signaled economic gains and regional cooperation, reinforcing Netanyahu’s political standing and prompting a sharp rise in the market’s Yes probability.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s expanded Board of Peace
December 31 jumps to 54%6%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the Board of Peace, despite earlier criticism, indicated his active role in regional diplomacy and peace efforts, which may have increased market confidence in his continued leadership, causing a notable price jump.
Israel and Hamas Agree to US-Backed Gaza Ceasefire Plan
December 31 jumps to 62%14%
The announcement of a ceasefire agreement brokered by Donald Trump dramatically shifted Israeli political dynamics, raising immediate questions about the stability of Netanyahu's far-right coalition.
Israeli Opposition Coordinates Plans to Bring Down Netanyahu's Coalition Government
December 31 jumps to 62%14%
Opposition leader Yair Lapid announced coordinated efforts to bring down Netanyahu's far-right coalition government within months during the upcoming parliamentary session, increasing pressure on the Prime Minister.
Israeli opposition plans to remove Netanyahu within months
December 31 jumps to 53%6%
Opposition leader Yair Lapid announced coordinated efforts to bring down Netanyahu's far-right coalition during the upcoming parliamentary session, signaling increased political instability and raising market expectations of Netanyahu's potential resignation.
Netanyahu dismisses National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi
December 31 rises to 45%1%
Hanegbi's dismissal marked another top official stepping down after the October 7 Hamas attack, adding to a wave of resignations that pressured Netanyahu to remain in office amid security failures.
Polls show majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign over war responsibility
December 31 dips to 44%2%
Polls conducted in mid-September to October revealed that a majority of Israelis believed Netanyahu should resign either immediately or after the war, reflecting public dissatisfaction with his handling of the conflict and October 7 failures. This sentiment contributed to a decline in market confidence around early October.
Majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign after October 7 attack
Following the anniversary of the Hamas attack, polls showed a majority of Israelis wanting Netanyahu to resign as a way of accepting responsibility, intensifying political pressure and market expectations of his potential departure.
Israel Democracy Institute poll: 45% of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign for October 7 failures
December 31 jumps to 57%13%
A poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 45% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should resign immediately for the October 7 massacre, while another 19% believe he should resign after the war ends, fueling public pressure for his resignation.
Netanyahu tightens security at Israeli missions worldwide after DC embassy shooting
December 31 jumps to 60%13%
Following a deadly antisemitic shooting targeting Israeli embassy staff in Washington, Netanyahu increased security measures globally, highlighting rising tensions and security concerns that contributed to political instability and market uncertainty about his tenure.
IDI poll: 45% of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign after Oct. 7 massacre
A poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 45% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should take responsibility for the October 7 attack and resign immediately, increasing public pressure on him.
Poll: 64% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should bear responsibility for October 7 and resign
December 31 rises to 64%1%
A significant increase in public demand for Netanyahu's resignation, with 64% believing he should take responsibility and step down, intensified market pressure.
Poll: 45% of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign after Oct. 7 massacre
A poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 45% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should take responsibility for the October 7 attack and resign immediately, contributing to public pressure on his leadership.
Top Israeli security officials resign after Hamas attack failures
December 31 rises to 48%4%
Following the October 7 Hamas assault, many senior military and intelligence officials resigned or requested early retirement, citing responsibility for the failures. Netanyahu remained the only senior official not to resign, which maintained uncertainty about his political future and influenced market fluctuations.
Poll shows majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign
December 31 dips to 43%4%
A poll conducted in early October revealed that a majority of Israelis believed Netanyahu should resign either immediately or after the war, increasing market expectations of his stepping down by year-end.
Israel Democracy Institute poll: 64% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should bear responsibility and resign
December 31 rises to 64%2%
A poll showed 64% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should take responsibility for October 7 and resign, significantly increasing public pressure for his resignation.
Netanyahu dismissed National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi
December 31 rises to 66%2%
Hanegbi's dismissal was part of Netanyahu's effort to maintain control, but widespread resignations of other officials increased pressure on Netanyahu to step down.
Poll finds 64% of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign over Oct 7 failures
December 31 surges to 60%16%
A poll released by the Israel Democracy Institute showed that 45 % of Israelis thought Netanyahu should resign immediately and another 19 % after the war, pushing the market’s “December 31” probability up sharply as the public pressure on the premier intensified.
Netanyahu faces far-right coalition rift over U.S. push to end Gaza war
December 31 jumps to 60%12%
Efforts by the U.S. to broker a ceasefire in Gaza created a rift within Netanyahu's far-right coalition, threatening a government collapse and raising the probability of early elections.
Hostage families protest outside Netanyahu's home demanding war end and resignation
Families of hostages held by Hamas held a Sukkot meal in front of Netanyahu's residence, demanding the war end and Netanyahu resign, reflecting growing public pressure for accountability after two years of conflict.
Poll shows 64 % of Israelis call for Netanyahu’s resignation
December 31 jumps to 55%11%
A survey released by the Israel Democracy Institute (reported by ABC News) showed that 64 % of Israelis now think Netanyahu should resign, up sharply from previous months. The poll’s timing coincided with the lead‑up to the cease‑fire negotiations and amplified expectations of a leadership change, contributing to the market’s climb from 44 % on Sep 28 to 55 % on Oct 10.
Netanyahu faces far‑right backlash as Trump presses to end Gaza war
December 31 drops to 55%13%
Reuters reported that Trump pressed Netanyahu to end the Gaza war, prompting a backlash from far‑right coalition partners. The heightened intra‑coalition tension coincided with a price drop from a peak of 68 % on Oct 15 to 55 % on Oct 19, as traders feared a possible government collapse.
Israeli Interior Minister Ben-Gvir threatens resignation over Hamas ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 54%6%
Ben-Gvir threatened to resign from Netanyahu's cabinet if Hamas remains in power after the ceasefire, highlighting fractures within Netanyahu's far-right coalition and increasing political instability, which raised the perceived chance of Netanyahu stepping down by December 31.
Far-right coalition rift threatens Netanyahu government amid Gaza war
December 31 dips to 43%4%
A rift emerged within Netanyahu's far-right coalition over concessions to end the Gaza war, raising fears the government could collapse before the 2026 elections. This uncertainty pressured the market on Netanyahu's political survival.
Netanyahu's Gaza offensive plans spark domestic and international backlash
December 31 jumps to 57%9%
Plans for an expanded Gaza offensive drew anger both domestically and internationally, contributing to political pressure on Netanyahu and influencing market sentiment about his leadership stability.
Trump hosts Netanyahu for 20-point peace plan; Israel agrees to initial Gaza withdrawal
December 31 jumps to 57%9%
President Trump hosted Netanyahu and unveiled a 20-point peace plan, leading to Israel agreeing to an initial withdrawal line in Gaza while Hamas accepted a prisoner exchange. This diplomatic development increased market uncertainty about Netanyahu's leadership.
Trump hosts Netanyahu, unveils 20-point peace plan amid Gaza withdrawal talks
December 31 rises to 47%3%
President Trump hosted Netanyahu and presented a 20-point peace plan, with Israel agreeing to an initial Gaza withdrawal line and Hamas accepting a prisoner exchange. These diplomatic efforts affected market sentiment about Netanyahu's political stability and prospects.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump's Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire oversight
December 31 surges to 73%20%
Netanyahu announced he would join President Trump's Board of Peace, a move that signaled a significant shift in Israel's diplomatic posture and increased focus on the Gaza peace process, contributing to a sharp rise in market price.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 54%10%
Netanyahu approved the largest natural gas export deal in Israeli history, strengthening Israel's regional energy position and potentially bolstering his political standing. This coincided with a rise in the December 31 resignation probability from 44% to 54%.
Netanyahu attends joint press conference with US President Donald Trump in Washington, DC
December 31 jumps to 62%7%
Netanyahu's high-profile meeting with US President Trump in Washington, DC, projected unity and stability, potentially reassuring markets about his continued premiership.
Netanyahu’s U.N. speech prompts walkout amid war crimes allegations
December 31 jumps to 57%13%
Netanyahu's speech at the U.N. General Assembly, amid an ICC arrest warrant and international criticism over Gaza war actions, intensified political pressure and international isolation, contributing to market uncertainty about his political future.
Netanyahu vows to 'finish the job' at UN amid Gaza assault
At the UN General Assembly, Netanyahu expressed determination to continue military operations in Gaza despite mounting diplomatic pressure and international criticism, reflecting his resolve to maintain power and influence. This speech highlighted his political stance during a critical period, impacting market perceptions of his tenure.
Netanyahu addresses UN General Assembly, vows to finish job against Hamas
December 31 rises to 48%4%
At the UN General Assembly, Netanyahu reaffirmed his commitment to his policies and condemned endorsements of Palestinian statehood, reflecting his political stance and determination to maintain leadership, which influenced market sentiment.
Poll shows 64% of Israelis demand Netanyahu's resignation
A poll by the Israel Democracy Institute revealed that 64% of Israelis believed Netanyahu should resign, either immediately or after the war, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction and increasing pressure on Netanyahu's leadership.
Israel Democracy Institute poll: 45% of Israelis think Netanyahu should take responsibility and resign immediately
Poll showing significant public support for Netanyahu's resignation increased market pressure, with 45% supporting immediate resignation and 19% supporting resignation after the war ends.
Israel Democracy Institute poll: 64% of Israelis demand Netanyahu resignation
December 31 jumps to 60%13%
A major poll by the Israel Democracy Institute revealed 64% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should take responsibility for the October 7 attack and resign, either immediately (45%) or after the war (19%), significantly increasing pressure for his departure.
Bezalel Smotrich threatens resignation over Hamas ceasefire deal
Finance Minister Smotrich signaled he would resign if Netanyahu approved a ceasefire with Hamas, adding pressure on Netanyahu's leadership during ongoing war.
Public opinion polls show majority of Israelis demand Netanyahu's resignation
December 31 rises to 47%3%
In early September 2025, polls revealed that over 70% of Israelis wanted Netanyahu to resign, blaming him for national crises, which increased market anticipation of his stepping down by the end of 2026.
Israel confirms death of Hamas spokesman in August airstrike
December 31 dips to 43%3%
The confirmation that a senior Hamas spokesman was killed in an Israeli strike reduced speculation that Netanyahu might step down amid war pressures, nudging the market slightly lower as the conflict appeared to intensify without leadership changes.
Israeli bus accident kills ultra-Orthodox teen amid draft protests
December 31 dips to 44%3%
A bus driver ran over and killed a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, escalating tensions in Israel. Netanyahu called for calm, highlighting the political sensitivity of the issue and its potential impact on his coalition support.
Hamas confirms death of spokesman after Israeli strike
December 31 dips to 44%3%
Hamas publicly confirmed the death of its longtime spokesman following an Israeli strike in August, highlighting ongoing conflict tensions. This event coincided with a slight market dip for Netanyahu's December 31 resignation probability, reflecting increased regional instability.
Netanyahu urges calm after teen killed in ultra‑Orthodox protest
December 31 jumps to 55%7%
A 14‑year‑old yeshiva student was killed when a bus ran over him during a massive protest against a draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews. Netanyahu’s call for restraint highlighted growing domestic tension and the reliance on religious parties, increasing speculation of his possible resignation.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 47%1%
Netanyahu's approval of the largest natural gas deal in Israeli history strengthened his position as a regional energy power and contributed to regional stability, which likely increased confidence in his political longevity, reflected in a slight price rise.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra‑Orthodox teen killed in protest
December 31 rises to 48%2%
A teenage boy was killed when a bus ran over him during a large protest against the draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews. Netanyahu’s call for restraint highlighted mounting domestic pressure on his government, nudging the market upward.
Public and political calls for Netanyahu’s resignation intensify amid Gaza war
Calls for Netanyahu to resign grew louder, including from prominent figures and protests, but Netanyahu remained defiant, maintaining his position. This sustained market price near 47%, reflecting persistent doubts about his departure by year-end.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional position. While a positive economic move, it had limited direct impact on the market for his resignation, with a slight price increase from 45% to 47%.
Netanyahu government faces election year amid fallout from October 7 massacre
December 31 dips to 45%2%
As Israel entered an election year, Netanyahu's government was under pressure due to the October 7 massacre and its aftermath, including unkept promises and political divisions. This context raised doubts about his political future, influencing market expectations for his potential resignation by December 31, 2026.
Boston mayoral candidate Josh Kraft calls for Netanyahu’s resignation
On August 27, Josh Kraft publicly stated that Netanyahu "has to go" as Israel’s prime minister, reflecting growing international calls for his exit and contributing to market uncertainty about his tenure.
Josh Kraft publicly calls for Netanyahu to resign as Prime Minister
December 31 rises to 47%1%
On August 27, Boston mayoral candidate Josh Kraft, known for his family's strong support of Israel, publicly stated that Netanyahu "has to go" due to the unacceptable situation in Gaza. This high-profile call added to the mounting public and political pressure on Netanyahu.
Netanyahu dismisses National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Netanyahu dismissed Tzachi Hanegbi, the head of the National Security Council, amid widespread resignations and dismissals of top officials following the October 7 Hamas attack. This move underscored Netanyahu's isolation and increased market expectations of his potential resignation by December 31.
Former PM Naftali Bennett accuses Netanyahu of treason over Qatar funding scandal
December 31 jumps to 52%5%
In late August 2025, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu of treason related to alleged Qatari funding to his aides during wartime, intensifying political pressure and calls for Netanyahu's resignation. This scandal increased market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down by the end of 2026.
Poll shows majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign after war
December 31 jumps to 56%9%
A poll published in late August 2025 revealed that 45% of Israelis believed Netanyahu should resign immediately for the October 7 failures, with another 19% supporting resignation after the war ends. This public sentiment increased market expectations for Netanyahu stepping down by December 31, 2025.
Netanyahu shifts strategy on Gaza ceasefire amid confusion and protests
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Netanyahu announced a shift from partial to comprehensive ceasefire negotiations after Hamas acceptance, but his mixed messaging caused confusion and dissatisfaction among Israelis and mediators. This uncertainty contributed to market doubts about his political stability and potential resignation.
Netanyahu announces resumption of Gaza hostage negotiations but continues military campaign
December 31 rises to 47%2%
On August 22, Netanyahu declared resuming indirect negotiations with Hamas for hostages while maintaining military operations in Gaza City, reflecting a complex stance that stabilized market prices around 46-47%.
Netanyahu orders immediate hostage negotiations amid Gaza City offensive
December 31 rises to 47%1%
Netanyahu ordered negotiations for hostage release while advancing the Gaza City operation, signaling a critical juncture but no indication of resignation. Market prices remained low, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and political entrenchment.
Netanyahu signals continued leadership amid Gaza war and hostage negotiations
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Despite international criticism and internal dissent, Netanyahu emphasized ongoing negotiations for hostages and military operations in Gaza, stabilizing market expectations around 45-47% for his resignation by year-end.
Finance Minister Smotrich warns he will resign if Netanyahu backs Gaza ceasefire
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said he would quit if Netanyahu approved a Gaza ceasefire. The threat of a high‑profile cabinet split heightened speculation that Netanyahu’s coalition could crumble, nudging the “December 31” probability upward in late August.
Finance Minister Smotrich threatens resignation if Netanyahu approves ceasefire
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich warned he would resign if Netanyahu agreed to a ceasefire with Hamas, signaling internal government tensions and raising doubts about Netanyahu's political stability, which influenced market perceptions of his tenure.
Netanyahu defends Gaza occupation plan in UK podcast amid domestic protests
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Despite widespread protests and calls for a ceasefire, Netanyahu reaffirmed his commitment to the Gaza occupation plan, signaling no intention to resign soon. This stance stabilized market expectations around his continued tenure.
Netanyahu launches personal attack on Australian PM Albanese amid diplomatic tensions
December 31 dips to 46%1%
Netanyahu's public criticism of Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese marked escalating diplomatic isolation and controversy, reflecting growing political pressures but no direct indication of resignation plans.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite prior criticism
On August 18, 2025, Netanyahu agreed to join the Trump-led Board of Peace overseeing the Gaza ceasefire plan, indicating his continued political engagement and leadership. This decision likely contributed to the market's stabilization around a lower probability of resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu continues to engage in international diplomacy and peace efforts
Netanyahu's ongoing involvement in international diplomacy, including participation in peace process discussions and meetings with global leaders, reinforced his position as Prime Minister and contributed to the market's reduced probability of his resignation by December 31, 2026.
Netanyahu's Likud party reports opposition too cooperative, would have been more aggressive if roles reversed
Internal party reports suggesting Netanyahu's efforts to prevent his own ministers from resigning provided some 'breathing room' and influenced market perceptions of his stability.
Netanyahu's Likud party sources claim opposition too cooperative after Oct. 7 failures
A Likud party source claimed the opposition had been too cooperative, suggesting Netanyahu's internal political efforts to prevent ministerial resignations were successful in securing his premiership.
Coalition fractures and calls for Netanyahu resignation grow amid Gaza war
December 31 dips to 46%2%
By mid-August, Netanyahu's coalition was fracturing with rising calls for his resignation and opposition figures gaining strength, increasing market doubts about his remaining in office through year-end.
Internal Israeli military tensions rise over Gaza occupation plans
December 31 dips to 45%1%
By mid-August, reports emerged of IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir opposing Netanyahu's Gaza occupation plans, sparking calls for his resignation. This internal conflict highlighted political instability but did not translate into Netanyahu's resignation prospects improving, as market prices remained low.
Far-right coalition pledges Gaza occupation despite risks, Netanyahu faces internal dissent
December 31 dips to 45%3%
By mid-August, Netanyahu's far-right coalition committed to occupying Palestinian enclaves despite risks to hostages, provoking rebellion within his government. This internal conflict signaled political instability, affecting market confidence in Netanyahu's continued leadership.
Critics accuse Netanyahu of prolonging Gaza war for political survival
December 31 dips to 45%3%
By mid-August, critics including political figures and commentators accused Netanyahu of extending the conflict to maintain power, fueling public and political opposition that pressured his leadership.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to move into Gaza cease‑fire’s second phase
December 31 rises to 48%3%
Top U.S. officials met Netanyahu and pressed for progress on the second phase of the Gaza cease‑fire, signaling heightened international scrutiny and potential diplomatic strain that could destabilize his government before the year‑end deadline.
Israel objects to U.S. announcement of Gaza executive committee
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Israel’s government, led by Netanyahu, publicly objected to the U.S. announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza’s next steps, stating the committee was not coordinated with Israel and contrary to its policy. This assertion of control and political agency by Netanyahu’s government indicated his continued leadership role, reinforcing market confidence against his imminent resignation.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 48%1%
Netanyahu's approval of a major natural gas export deal to Egypt demonstrated his ongoing leadership in regional economic and diplomatic affairs, reinforcing perceptions of his political stability and slightly stabilizing market expectations after prior declines.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Florida to discuss Iran and Gaza
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Netanyahu held talks with Trump focusing on Iran nuclear negotiations and Gaza ceasefire progress, reinforcing his active political role and diminishing market expectations of his resignation by year-end.
New Zealand PM says Netanyahu has 'lost the plot' amid growing international criticism
December 31 jumps to 47%9%
International leaders, including New Zealand’s Prime Minister, publicly criticized Netanyahu’s leadership, signaling increasing diplomatic isolation. This contributed to market uncertainty but did not significantly increase resignation odds.
Poll shows Likud slipping amid coalition fears, Netanyahu considers satellite party
Polls indicated declining support for Netanyahu's Likud party and fears of coalition collapse, increasing speculation about his political future but no immediate resignation, reflecting market uncertainty.
Netanyahu assumes duties of resigned ministers despite legal concerns
December 31 drops to 47%7%
Netanyahu took over the posts of ministers who resigned from the Shas party and United Torah Judaism bloc, violating Israeli law and highlighting the fragility and legal challenges within his government, contributing to market doubts about his tenure.
New poll shows 62% of Israelis lost confidence in Netanyahu's leadership
December 31 drops to 47%8%
A poll revealed Netanyahu's government had lost majority public support, indicating potential political instability and early elections. This significantly increased pressure for his resignation.
Netanyahu accused of prolonging Gaza war to save political career
December 31 dips to 45%2%
ABC News reported that Netanyahu faced accusations of prolonging the war to save his own political career, with US allies questioning his commitment to ending the conflict.
Netanyahu Faces Intense Coalition Pressure Following Gaza Occupation Announcement
December 31 dips to 47%3%
The announcement of the gradual occupation of Gaza triggered severe domestic crises, leading observers to question the long-term survival of Netanyahu's governing coalition.
Criticism mounts as Netanyahu's Gaza City invasion plans likened to concentration camp
December 31 plunges to 38%17%
On August 11, international and domestic criticism intensified over Netanyahu's Gaza policies, with comparisons to concentration camps and accusations of pursuing a 'Greater Israel' agenda, causing a sharp market drop to 38%.
Winter rain floods Gaza camps as Netanyahu heads for US meeting
December 31 drops to 45%5%
On August 11, 2025, severe winter rains flooded Gaza camps, highlighting ongoing humanitarian challenges. Netanyahu traveled to the US for talks with President Trump about the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, signaling his active role in regional diplomacy and reducing market expectations of his resignation.
Netanyahu defends Gaza City takeover plan amid global condemnation
December 31 drops to 38%12%
Netanyahu publicly defended the Gaza City operation, emphasizing Israel’s overriding security responsibility and dismissing international criticism. This hardened position coincided with a market trough at 38%, reflecting increased doubts about his resignation prospects.
Netanyahu assumes duties of resigned ministers despite legal concerns
December 31 drops to 45%5%
Netanyahu took over ministerial roles from resigned Shas and UTJ ministers, defying legal norms but demonstrating his intent to maintain control, which further lowered market confidence in his resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu Faces Intense Pressure From Far-Right Coalition Partners Over Gaza Plan
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Following the Gaza City takeover announcement, Netanyahu faced intense pressure from far-right partners who hold the key to his coalition's survival, raising questions about whether his government can last until October 2026.
Netanyahu defends Gaza City seizure plan amid global condemnation
December 31 dips to 47%4%
Netanyahu publicly defended Israel's plan to seize Gaza City despite international and domestic criticism, including from hostage families. This deepened political isolation and raised doubts about his ability to maintain coalition support.
Market sharply drops amid rising political opposition and coalition fractures
December 31 plunges to 38%16%
On August 11, 2025, the market price for Netanyahu's resignation dropped sharply from 54% to 38%, reflecting increased political pressure including public calls for resignation by opposition figures like Naftali Bennett and coalition instability.
Netanyahu joins Trump's Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire
Netanyahu agreed to join Trump's Board of Peace, a move that may have created internal political tensions within his coalition. This decision could have contributed to the market's sharp decline to 41% on August 11.
Netanyahu pushes for full conquest of Gaza as ceasefire talks stall
December 31 dips to 47%4%
Reports indicated Netanyahu was committed to a military defeat of Hamas and urged security cabinet support for full conquest of Gaza, signaling a hardline stance that may affect his political standing amid ongoing conflict.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protests
December 31 jumps to 45%6%
Following the death of a teenage boy during ultra-Orthodox protests, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal social tensions but Netanyahu's active leadership in crisis management likely reassured some market participants, causing a partial price rebound from 39% to 45%.
Netanyahu defends Gaza City takeover amid global condemnation
December 31 dips to 47%4%
Netanyahu publicly defended his plan to seize Gaza City despite widespread international criticism and internal opposition, signaling his determination to remain in power and continue the military campaign, which further lowered market confidence in his stepping down by the end of 2025.
Opposition accuses Netanyahu of failed leadership amid Gaza war and political turmoil
December 31 drops to 46%8%
Israeli opposition leaders publicly condemned Netanyahu's leadership, accusing him of prioritizing political interests over national security and calling for a deal to end the war. This public dissent reflected growing internal pressure and contributed to the market's declining confidence in Netanyahu's tenure.
Netanyahu defends Israel's plan to seize Gaza City despite global condemnation
On August 10, 2025, Netanyahu publicly defended the plan to seize Gaza City, emphasizing his commitment to the military campaign and dismissing international criticism. This stance further solidified his position and diminished market expectations of his stepping down soon.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address escalating settler violence in West Bank
December 31 drops to 45%9%
Netanyahu met with security officials to discuss rising Israeli settler violence, a politically sensitive issue that strains his coalition and public support. The unresolved tensions and criticism from both sides likely contributed to a sharp drop in market confidence regarding his continued tenure.
Israel objects to US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza ceasefire next steps
December 31 drops to 45%9%
Israel's government publicly objected to the US-led executive committee overseeing Gaza's next steps, signaling political friction but with Netanyahu backing the stance. This tension may have caused uncertainty about Netanyahu's political stability, contributing to a sharp price drop from 54% to 45%.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza cease‑fire’s second phase
December 31 drops to 45%5%
U.S. officials pressed Netanyahu to move forward with the cease‑fire plan, highlighting diplomatic friction and uncertainty over the timeline for ending hostilities, which contributed to a further price drop.
Netanyahu Defends Gaza City Seizure Plan Amid Intense Domestic and Global Backlash
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Netanyahu doubled down on his military takeover plans, which critics and hostage families warned would endanger captives and prolong the war to satisfy far-right coalition partners.
Settler violence surges in West Bank with 29 attacks documented
December 31 drops to 48%7%
A spike in Israeli settler attacks on Palestinian property and vehicles, including a fire at a scrapyard, raised concerns about ongoing instability and Netanyahu's ability to manage domestic security.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on surge of West Bank settler violence
December 31 drops to 45%9%
Facing criticism over increasing settler attacks, Netanyahu held a high‑level security meeting, underscoring domestic instability and further eroding confidence in his tenure, contributing to the market’s slide to the low‑40s.
Netanyahu hopes Gaza operation decision buys him time amid rising pressure
December 31 drops to 50%5%
Netanyahu aimed to use the decision to occupy Gaza City to buy political breathing room, but rising global and domestic pressure continued to mount. The uncertainty about his ability to maintain power amid these pressures contributed to market volatility and a decline in resignation probability.
Netanyahu hopes military actions buy time amid rising pressure
December 31 dips to 47%4%
Netanyahu aimed to use military operations in Gaza to buy political time, but rising global and domestic pressure continued to threaten his position, contributing to the market's declining confidence in his staying power through 2026.
Netanyahu doubles down on Gaza‑city occupation plan
December 31 plunges to 38%16%
Netanyahu publicly doubled down on a plan to fully occupy Gaza City, presenting an expanded “humanitarian zones” scheme. The hard‑line stance shocked domestic and international observers, driving the market sharply down to a low of 38% on August 11.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire’s second phase, including demilitarization and reconstruction, highlighting ongoing political engagement and Netanyahu’s leadership role, which likely lowered resignation odds.
Netanyahu criticized at home and abroad after new Gaza plan announcement
December 31 drops to 47%8%
On August 8, 2025, Netanyahu announced a Gaza plan that stopped short of full control but drew broad criticism domestically and internationally. This event reinforced doubts about his leadership and contributed to the market's declining confidence in his remaining in office through 2026.
Netanyahu defends Israel's plan to seize Gaza City despite global condemnation
December 31 drops to 45%6%
On August 8, 2025, Netanyahu publicly defended the plan to seize Gaza City amid widespread international criticism and calls for ceasefire. His firm stance amid mounting pressure further lowered market confidence in his resignation by year-end.
Gaza medical authorities report mass starvation amid Netanyahu's Gaza campaign
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Medical authorities confirmed nine more Palestinians died from malnutrition, intensifying criticism of Netanyahu's military strategy and humanitarian impact. This fueled accusations of prolonging the war for political gain.
Netanyahu faces international condemnation over Gaza City takeover plan
December 31 drops to 45%8%
Netanyahu's plan to seize Gaza City drew intense international pushback, including from European allies halting military exports. This global condemnation highlighted Netanyahu's isolation but did not trigger immediate resignation, reflecting continued market skepticism about his stepping down.
Netanyahu urges full conquest of Gaza amid ceasefire impasse
December 31 dips to 47%4%
Netanyahu publicly advocated for full conquest of Gaza, signaling a hardline military approach that intensified political pressure.
Netanyahu announces plan for full conquest of Gaza amid ceasefire impasse
December 31 drops to 47%6%
Netanyahu declared intent to fully conquer Gaza despite opposition and risks to hostages, signaling a hardline approach that diminished market expectations of his stepping down soon.
Gaza ceasefire talks reach impasse as Netanyahu pushes for full conquest
December 31 dips to 51%3%
Senior officials close to Netanyahu confirmed the decision for full conquest of Gaza, with the Chief of Staff reportedly facing resignation pressure if he opposes the plan, indicating serious internal divisions.
Hostage families urge Netanyahu to agree to ceasefire deal with Hamas
December 31 dips to 54%1%
Hostage families publicly pressured Netanyahu to negotiate a ceasefire, highlighting internal dissent and humanitarian concerns that undermined his position, influencing market perceptions of his political vulnerability.
Haredi parties withdraw from Netanyahu's coalition amid conscription crisis
December 31 dips to 51%4%
United Torah Judaism and Noam withdrew from the coalition, while Shas withdrew from the government, fracturing Netanyahu's coalition and threatening his government's survival.
Netanyahu criticized domestically and internationally after Gaza war plan announcement
December 31 drops to 50%5%
Following Netanyahu's announcement of a Gaza war plan that stopped short of full control but indicated intent, criticism mounted, reflecting political strain and contributing to a drop in market confidence for his staying in office.
Netanyahu broadly criticized at home and abroad after new Gaza plan announcement
December 31 drops to 47%8%
Netanyahu's announcement of a Gaza plan that stopped short of full control drew widespread criticism, reflecting growing dissatisfaction with his leadership and contributing to further decline in market confidence about his staying power.
Israel's Security Cabinet Approves Netanyahu's Plan to Occupy Gaza City
December 31 dips to 54%1%
Despite intense international pushback and warnings from the military chief, the security cabinet approved Netanyahu's plan to occupy Gaza City, signaling a prolonged war that keeps him in power.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protests
Netanyahu's call for restraint following the death of an ultra-Orthodox teenager during protests demonstrated his ongoing role in managing domestic crises, indicating he was still firmly in power and reducing market expectations of his resignation.
Germany to halt arms exports to Israel after meeting with Netanyahu
December 31 drops to 38%7%
Netanyahu met with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who announced a German arms embargo on Israel. The diplomatic rebuke was widely reported and coincided with the market’s trough at 38 % on Aug 11, indicating heightened concern over Netanyahu’s international isolation.
Failed ceasefire talks increase pressure on Netanyahu
December 31 dips to 51%4%
By August 8, ceasefire negotiations with Hamas had collapsed, with Netanyahu blamed for hardline positions. This failure heightened domestic and international criticism, contributing to a decline in market confidence about his staying power.
Netanyahu faces broad criticism after announcing plan to seize Gaza City
December 31 drops to 43%11%
Netanyahu's announcement to escalate military operations by taking control of Gaza City drew widespread condemnation internationally and domestically, intensifying political pressure and raising doubts about coalition stability, which influenced market sentiment downward.
Netanyahu announces plan to take full military control of Gaza Strip
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Netanyahu declared Israel's intent to fully occupy Gaza to remove Hamas and transfer governance to friendly Arab forces, despite IDF opposition and international criticism. This firm stance reinforced market doubts about his resignation, with prices declining further.
Netanyahu pushes Gaza ceasefire second phase with U.S. envoys
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress into the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, involving demilitarization and reconstruction. Netanyahu’s engagement in these complex negotiations suggested political stability and continuity, contributing to a decline in the market’s probability of his resignation by the end of 2026.
Former PM Bennett accuses Netanyahu aides of betraying Israel, calls for resignation
December 31 dips to 47%4%
Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu's associates of betraying Israel during wartime and stated Netanyahu lost moral authority to lead, increasing internal political pressure. This event reflected growing domestic opposition but did not immediately increase resignation odds.
Israeli Security Cabinet Approves Netanyahu's Plan to Occupy Gaza City
December 31 rises to 55%2%
The Israeli security cabinet approved Netanyahu's proposal to take military control of Gaza City, signaling a major expansion of the offensive despite military qualms and international pressure.
Naftali Bennett Demands Netanyahu's Resignation Over Qatargate Treason Scandal
December 31 rises to 55%2%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly demanded Netanyahu's immediate resignation, accusing his close aides of acting as paid agents for Qatar during wartime.
Former PM Bennett calls for Netanyahu's resignation over Qatar scandal
December 31 dips to 51%4%
Naftali Bennett accused Netanyahu's aides of betraying Israel and claimed Netanyahu lost moral authority due to the Qatargate affair. This scandal intensified internal political pressure and market skepticism about Netanyahu's future.
Bennett accuses Netanyahu aides of ‘betraying’ Israel, calls for resignation
December 31 jumps to 45%7%
Former PM Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu’s aides of betraying Israel in the Qatargate affair and urged the prime minister to resign. The accusation added internal coalition strain, matching the price rebound from 38 % to 45 % between Aug 11 and Aug 13.
Bennett says Netanyahu’s aides ‘betrayed’ Israel and calls for PM’s resignation
December 31 drops to 48%7%
Former prime minister Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu’s aides of betraying Israel in the Qatargate scandal and said the prime minister must resign. The accusation heightened political pressure and coincided with a further slide in market odds from 55% to 48% over the following week.
Netanyahu says Israel will take control of Gaza City
December 31 drops to 45%10%
Netanyahu announced that Israel intends to take military control of Gaza City, a plan approved by the security cabinet. The aggressive expansion sparked domestic and international criticism and coincided with the market’s sharp decline from 55 % to 45 % Yes between Aug 4 and Aug 9, suggesting traders saw the move as increasing political risk for Netanyahu’s tenure.
Israel's Security Cabinet Approves Netanyahu's Plan to Take Control of Gaza City
December 31 rises to 55%2%
Netanyahu successfully pushed through a controversial plan to take military control of Gaza City despite pushback from the IDF military chief, signaling a long-term military commitment that binds his coalition together.
Naftali Bennett accuses Netanyahu aides of betraying Israel, calls for PM's resignation
December 31 plunges to 38%16%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu's close associates of betraying Israel during wartime and stated that Netanyahu lost moral authority to lead, intensifying calls for his resignation and impacting market sentiment negatively.
Netanyahu states Israel intends to take control of Gaza but not govern it
December 31 rises to 55%2%
In a Fox News interview, Netanyahu clarified Israel's intent to control Gaza without governing it, reflecting a nuanced position amid military plans. This statement tempered some fears of full occupation governance but maintained the hardline approach, sustaining market uncertainty.
Former PM Naftali Bennett calls for Netanyahu's resignation over Qatar ties
December 31 dips to 51%2%
Naftali Bennett accused Netanyahu's associates of betraying Israel and stated that Netanyahu lost moral authority to lead, calling for his resignation. This internal political attack heightened domestic pressure on Netanyahu, negatively affecting market sentiment about his staying power.
Netanyahu's security cabinet approves plan to occupy Gaza City
December 31 dips to 51%4%
Netanyahu's cabinet approved a plan to take military control of Gaza City, escalating the conflict and drawing international condemnation. This assertive move indicated Netanyahu's intent to continue his leadership through the conflict, reducing market expectations of his resignation by year-end.
Former PM Naftali Bennett accuses Netanyahu aides of betraying Israel, calls for resignation
December 31 dips to 51%2%
Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu's associates of betraying Israel during wartime and stated that Netanyahu lost moral authority to lead, intensifying domestic political pressure and undermining Netanyahu's position.
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett accuses Netanyahu aides of betraying Israel, calls for resignation
December 31 dips to 45%2%
On August 7, 2025, Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu's close associates of betraying Israel during wartime and stated that Netanyahu lost moral authority to lead, increasing political pressure on Netanyahu but without immediate effect on his position.
Netanyahu orders full Israeli military takeover of Gaza despite IDF opposition
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Netanyahu directed the Israeli military to fully occupy Gaza, overriding objections from the IDF, signaling a hardline stance amid the conflict. This move increased political tensions but showed Netanyahu's resolve to remain in power, causing market skepticism about his resignation.
Netanyahu Leans Toward Full Gaza Occupation Amid Tensions with Military Chief
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Netanyahu pushed for a complete military takeover of Gaza, prompting severe friction with IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir and sparking calls from Netanyahu loyalists for Zamir's resignation.
Ultranationalist minister Ben‑Gvir resigns then returns amid ceasefire debate
December 31 drops to 50%5%
Media reported that far‑right minister Itamar Ben‑Gvir briefly resigned over a Gaza ceasefire deal, then re‑joined the cabinet. The episode further signalled instability within the coalition and coincided with a modest price dip from 55% to 50% on August 11.
Netanyahu Clashes With Military Officials Over Full Gaza Occupation Plans
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Netanyahu met with senior security officials to discuss a full military occupation of Gaza, reportedly telling his chief of staff to resign if he opposed the plan.
Netanyahu Meets Security Officials Over Gaza Occupation Plans Amid Military Tensions
Netanyahu held high-level talks to discuss plans for a full military occupation of Gaza, warning IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir to resign if he opposed the strategy.
Israeli court suspends government's move to dismiss attorney general, escalating crisis
December 31 dips to 53%1%
The Israeli cabinet voted to dismiss Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, a critic of Netanyahu, but the court suspended the move, intensifying the political standoff and undermining Netanyahu's position.
Netanyahu orders full occupation of Gaza despite military dissent
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Netanyahu announced plans for full occupation of Gaza, telling his chief of staff to resign if he disagreed. This assertive stance amid military tensions increased political risks and uncertainty about his leadership longevity.
Netanyahu asserts full Gaza occupation plan despite military objections
December 31 dips to 53%1%
Netanyahu held talks with security officials about fully occupying Gaza, dismissing military concerns and telling his chief of staff to resign if dissatisfied. This hardened stance amid internal tensions increased political pressure but did not lead to resignation.
Netanyahu meets security officials amid tensions over Gaza occupation plans
December 31 rises to 55%1%
Netanyahu held talks with Israeli security officials about plans to fully occupy Gaza, asserting his authority and threatening resignation of dissenters. This showed his determination to continue his policies despite military reservations, contributing to market uncertainty and price fluctuations around 54-55%.
Netanyahu to convene security cabinet after cease‑fire talks collapse
December 31 dips to 45%3%
After a failed indirect cease‑fire talks, Netanyahu announced an upcoming security‑cabinet meeting to decide Israel’s next steps in Gaza, hinting at a shift from a truce to a comprehensive deal. The prospect of an intensified military push raised resignation speculation, nudging the market back up to 45% by August 16.
Netanyahu government votes to dismiss attorney general prosecuting him for corruption
December 31 dips to 53%1%
On August 4, 2025, Netanyahu's government voted unanimously to dismiss Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, a key critic and prosecutor in Netanyahu's corruption case. This move increased political tensions and uncertainty about Netanyahu's position, contributing to a decline in market confidence in his continuation as Prime Minister.
Netanyahu holds talks with Israeli security officials over full Gaza occupation plans
December 31 dips to 53%2%
On August 4, Netanyahu's firm stance on fully occupying Gaza and his confrontational message to military leadership signaled no retreat in policy, undermining prospects for resignation and pushing market prices down from 55% to 53%.
Netanyahu orders full Gaza occupation, tells chief of staff to resign if opposed
December 31 dips to 53%1%
Netanyahu's decision to pursue full military occupation of Gaza and his ultimatum to the chief of staff indicated a hardline approach and internal government tensions, contributing to market doubts about his political stability and potential resignation.
Netanyahu convenes security cabinet to decide next steps after Gaza ceasefire talks collapse
December 31 dips to 54%1%
Following the failure of ceasefire negotiations with Hamas, Netanyahu's government prepared for a possible military escalation in Gaza. This heightened tensions and uncertainty about his leadership, contributing to a further decline in market confidence.
Ben-Gvir temporarily resigns from Netanyahu cabinet amid coalition pressure
December 31 drops to 45%5%
Ben-Gvir's resignation weakened Netanyahu's coalition, though he later rejoined when Israel returned to active combat in Gaza.
Israeli cabinet votes unanimously to fire attorney general, escalating judiciary standoff
December 31 dips to 53%1%
The cabinet's unanimous vote to dismiss the attorney general intensified the conflict between Netanyahu and the judiciary, undermining his political position and increasing perceptions of instability, which pressured the market to lower resignation odds.
Netanyahu announces plan for full Gaza occupation amid military leadership tensions
December 31 drops to 46%8%
Netanyahu declared a decision for full occupation of Gaza, telling his chief of staff to resign if opposed. This hardline military stance amid internal government tensions signaled political entrenchment, causing market confidence in his resignation by year-end to decline further from 54% to 46%.
Netanyahu Pushes for Full Gaza Occupation Despite IDF Objections and Hostage Risks
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held high-level security meetings to push for a full military takeover of the Gaza Strip, reportedly telling his chief of staff to resign if he opposed the plan.
Netanyahu announces full Gaza conquest plans, demands chief of staff resignation
December 31 rises to 54%1%
In a direct message to Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, Netanyahu stated 'If this does not suit you, then you should resign,' signaling internal military disagreements over occupation plans and potential coalition instability.
Netanyahu announces full Gaza occupation plans after military talks
December 31 drops to 53%5%
Netanyahu met with security officials to discuss full occupation of Gaza, reportedly causing tension with his chief of staff over strategic direction.
Netanyahu says decision made for full occupation of Gaza
December 31 dips to 51%2%
In a message to Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, Netanyahu announced plans for full Israeli occupation of Gaza, citing a decision that would require Zamir to resign if he disagreed, signaling a major escalation in the Gaza conflict.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 dips to 53%1%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint amid rising tensions. This incident highlighted internal political challenges and coalition pressures, likely weakening confidence in his political longevity and contributing to the market price decline.
Netanyahu urges full conquest of Gaza as ceasefire talks stall
December 31 dips to 54%1%
Netanyahu's firm military stance and call for full conquest of Gaza signaled no intention to step down amid escalating conflict, reducing market expectations of his resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu's government votes unanimously to dismiss attorney general prosecuting him for corruption
December 31 dips to 54%2%
On August 4, Netanyahu's far-right government voted to fire Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, who was prosecuting him for corruption. This escalated tensions with the judiciary and was seen as a move to consolidate power, undermining Netanyahu's political standing and increasing uncertainty about his tenure.
Netanyahu pushes for full conquest of Gaza amid ceasefire impasse
December 31 dips to 54%1%
Netanyahu advocated for a full military conquest of Gaza, rejecting ceasefire talks and signaling a hardline stance that increased political tensions but did not indicate resignation, contributing to market decline.
Ultranationalist minister Ben‑Gvir sparks outrage over prayers at holy site
December 31 drops to 45%5%
Itamar Ben‑Gvir’s controversial prayer at the Al‑Aqsa/Temple Mount site drew international condemnation and temporarily strained Netanyahu’s coalition, contributing to the continued decline in confidence reflected by the market.
Israel security cabinet approves plan to seize Gaza City, signaling major escalation
December 31 dips to 51%3%
The cabinet's approval of a plan to seize Gaza City, including displacing the population, triggered widespread condemnation and signaled a potential military and political crisis.
Pro-Israel Democrats break with Netanyahu amid Gaza crisis
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Democratic leaders in the US explicitly distanced themselves from Netanyahu due to his Gaza policies, reflecting international political isolation. This increased pressure on Netanyahu but did not translate into immediate resignation prospects, slightly lowering market optimism.
US Democrats publicly break with Netanyahu over Gaza crisis
December 31 dips to 54%1%
Several prominent US Democrats distanced themselves from Netanyahu's policies amid the Gaza conflict, signaling international political pressure and criticism that contributed to market uncertainty about his political future.
US Democrats publicly rebuke Netanyahu over Gaza war handling
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Leading US Democrats criticized Netanyahu's strategy in Gaza, signaling international political pressure and potential isolation. This increased uncertainty about his political future but did not immediately affect his position.
Democrats rebuke Netanyahu’s Gaza strategy
December 31 drops to 54%5%
A wave of statements from senior US Democrats, including Senator Patty Murray, condemned Netanyahu’s war strategy and called for new US policy. The criticism heightened expectations of political pressure on Netanyahu, aligning with the market’s early decline from 59 % to 54 % between Jul 25 and Jul 26.
Democrats Rebuke Netanyahu and Israel's Handling of Gaza War
December 31 dips to 55%1%
Prominent U.S. Democrats ramped up their criticism of Netanyahu's military strategy, highlighting a growing partisan divide and international pressure on his administration.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising West Bank settler violence
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Amid reports of settlers attacking Palestinian vehicles and setting fires, Netanyahu met security officials, signaling potential policy shifts and increasing political pressure from coalition partners, which further lowered market confidence.
Democrats in US rebuke Netanyahu over Gaza war handling
December 31 dips to 54%2%
A majority of Senate Democrats criticized Netanyahu's policies and handling of the Gaza conflict, signaling international political pressure and diminishing support. This contributed to market skepticism about Netanyahu's political future, reflected in a price decline.
Democrats publicly rebuke Netanyahu over Gaza war handling
December 31 drops to 54%5%
US Democrats issued a strong public condemnation of Netanyahu's strategy in Gaza, signaling international political pressure and criticism of his leadership. This heightened scrutiny contributed to market uncertainty about his political future.
US Democrats publicly rebuke Netanyahu over Gaza war handling
December 31 dips to 55%1%
On July 31, 2025, prominent US Democrats criticized Netanyahu's strategy in Gaza, signaling a shift in US political support. This criticism added international pressure and uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future, contributing to a decline in market confidence.
Netanyahu assumes duties of resigned ministers amid coalition crisis
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Following resignations from ultra-Orthodox parties, Netanyahu took over their ministerial posts despite legal concerns, demonstrating his consolidation of power and lowering the likelihood of his stepping down soon.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
December 31 drops to 53%6%
A teenage yeshiva student was killed when a bus ran over him during protests against Netanyahu’s plan to draft ultra‑Orthodox men, intensifying tensions with religious coalition partners and weakening his political base, contributing to the price drop observed on July 26‑28.
US Senate Democrats rebuke Netanyahu over Gaza war handling
December 31 drops to 54%5%
A majority of Senate Democrats voted for resolutions blocking arms exports to Israel, criticizing Netanyahu's right-wing policies and handling of the Gaza humanitarian crisis. This political backlash signaled growing international and domestic pressure on Netanyahu, contributing to a decline in market confidence about his staying power.
Retouched photos of Sara Netanyahu spark ethics controversy
December 31 rises to 56%3%
Revealed digitally altered images of Netanyahu’s wife in official releases sparked a public ethics debate, casting doubt on the administration’s transparency and further damaging Netanyahu’s standing, which coincided with the market’s slide toward mid‑July.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite earlier criticism
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Netanyahu announced his acceptance to join the U.S. President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace, a body intended to oversee the Gaza ceasefire and broader peace efforts. This move signaled his commitment to ongoing political leadership and regional stability, reducing market expectations of his stepping down by year-end 2026.
US senators urge Netanyahu to change course in Gaza war amid starvation fears
December 31 dips to 51%2%
Over 100 NGOs warned of mass starvation in Gaza due to Netanyahu's blockade, adding pressure on the US to push for a ceasefire and highlighting humanitarian concerns undermining Netanyahu's legitimacy.
Netanyahu blasts UK over conditional Palestinian state recognition
December 31 rises to 58%4%
Netanyahu criticized British Prime Minister Keir Starmer for conditional plans to recognize a Palestinian state, accusing the UK of rewarding Hamas and undermining Israel's position.
Netanyahu Blasts UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer Over Palestinian Statehood Plans
December 31 dips to 55%1%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu strongly criticized UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer for announcing conditional plans to recognize a Palestinian state, arguing that it rewards terrorism.
Netanyahu holds consultations on Gaza amid coalition instability
December 31 rises to 58%4%
Netanyahu's decision not to hand ministerial portfolios to resigned ministers suggested hope for Shas party's return, indicating political maneuvering to stabilize his government. This maintained some market optimism but also highlighted ongoing coalition fragility.
Netanyahu criticizes European recognition of Palestinian state as rewarding Hamas
Netanyahu publicly condemned European countries recognizing a Palestinian state, framing it as rewarding terrorism, which reinforced his hardline image and decreased market optimism about his resignation.
Netanyahu condemns UK plans to recognize Palestinian state, escalating tensions
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Netanyahu publicly criticized British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's announcement to recognize a Palestinian state, framing it as rewarding terrorism, which reinforced his hardline image and likely decreased market optimism about his resignation.
Netanyahu accuses European leaders of rewarding Hamas by recognizing Palestinian state
December 31 dips to 56%2%
Netanyahu criticized British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's conditional recognition of Palestinian state, which intensified diplomatic tensions and political isolation.
Netanyahu Accuses UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Rewarding Hamas
December 31 rises to 56%2%
Netanyahu strongly criticized the UK government's conditional plans to recognize a Palestinian state, reinforcing his defiant stance against international pressure and solidifying his domestic political position.
Netanyahu condemns UK recognition of Palestinian state, blaming it for terrorism
December 31 drops to 54%5%
On July 29, Netanyahu criticized the British government for recognizing Palestine, accusing it of rewarding Hamas and encouraging terrorism. This hardened stance likely reinforced perceptions of Netanyahu's determination to maintain his position, contributing to a slight market decline in resignation probability.
Netanyahu faces criticism amid Gaza conflict and coalition tensions
December 31 rises to 58%4%
Netanyahu accused Europeans of 'rewarding Hamas' and held consultations on Gaza, while his coalition remained unstable with ministers not reinstated. This ongoing political and military pressure contributed to market doubts about his remaining in office through 2026.
Netanyahu holds high-level meetings amid growing domestic and international pressure
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Netanyahu convened top advisers to discuss hostages and Gaza ceasefire talks amid increasing criticism and public opposition, reflecting political strain. This contributed to market uncertainty and a price decline to 54%.
Ultra-Orthodox Shas Party Quits Government Over Military Service Dispute
December 31 dips to 55%1%
The ultra-Orthodox Shas party withdrew from the government after the coalition failed to codify Haredi military service exemptions, forcing a cabinet vote to replace the resigned ministers.
Netanyahu condemns European recognition of Palestinian state as rewarding Hamas
December 31 dips to 56%3%
Netanyahu publicly criticized European countries for recognizing a Palestinian state, framing it as rewarding terrorism. This hardened his political stance and reduced market confidence in his resignation by signaling his continued defiance.
Netanyahu accuses Europeans of 'rewarding Hamas' by recognizing Palestinian state
December 31 rises to 56%2%
Netanyahu's July 29 statement blaming Europe for rewarding Hamas reinforced his hardline image amid the Gaza conflict, contributing to political tensions and market uncertainty about his tenure, with prices fluctuating around 54-56%.
Netanyahu assumes ministerial roles vacated by resigning ultra-Orthodox ministers
December 31 dips to 55%1%
Following the resignation of Shas and UTJ ministers, Netanyahu took over their ministerial duties despite legal prohibitions, demonstrating his intent to maintain control and government functionality. This move was controversial but showed his resilience, slightly stabilizing market expectations.
Netanyahu violates Israeli law by assuming ministerial duties
December 31 plunges to 38%36%
Netanyahu assumed responsibilities of resigned Shas and UTJ ministers, violating Israeli law that prohibits a prime minister from holding ministerial posts. This illegal action caused a sharp market decline to 38% on August 11.
Netanyahu assumes duties of resigned ministers, violating Israeli law
December 31 drops to 53%6%
Following the resignation of ministers from the ultra-Orthodox Shas Party and United Torah Judaism bloc over failed legislation on military exemptions, Netanyahu took over their ministerial duties, contravening Israeli law that prohibits a criminal defendant from holding ministerial posts. This move highlighted government instability and legal challenges facing Netanyahu, impacting market confidence in his tenure.
Iranian president declares full‑scale war with the West
December 31 drops to 38%7%
Iran’s president announced a full‑scale war with the U.S., Israel and Europe, heightening regional security concerns and putting pressure on Netanyahu’s government, further dragging the price down to 38% by August 11.
Israeli bus runs over and kills ultra-Orthodox teen during protest
December 31 drops to 50%9%
A bus driver killed a 14-year-old yeshiva student during a violent protest against military draft plans, inflaming tensions between Netanyahu's government and the ultra-Orthodox community he relies on politically.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra‑Orthodox teen killed in protest
December 31 dips to 54%1%
A teenage boy was killed when a bus ran over him during a massive protest against a draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews. Netanyahu’s call for restraint highlighted tensions with religious parties that underpin his coalition, raising doubts about his ability to govern through December.
Israeli Cabinet votes to dismiss attorney general, escalating standoff with judiciary
December 31 dips to 53%1%
Netanyahu's government voted unanimously to fire Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, escalating a long-standing standoff over judicial independence and Netanyahu's conflict of interest during his corruption trial.
Retouched images of Netanyahu's wife ignite ethics debate
Government-distributed photos of Netanyahu's wife were found to be heavily retouched, sparking a significant ethics controversy. This negative personal conduct issue likely contributed to the market's subsequent decline to 50% on July 27.
Teen killed in bus crash during ultra‑Orthodox draft protest
December 31 rises to 57%3%
A 14‑year‑old yeshiva student was run over by a bus amid protests against a draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews, prompting Netanyahu to call for calm; the incident highlighted internal dissent and temporarily lifted market optimism.
Israeli cabinet votes to fire attorney general
December 31 drops to 53%6%
The Israeli cabinet voted unanimously to dismiss Attorney General Gali Baharav‑Miara, intensifying Netanyahu’s clash with the judiciary and suggesting a move toward authoritarian rule. Investors saw this as a step toward potential removal of Netanyahu, causing the market to tumble to 53% on July 27.
Israeli Cabinet votes to fire attorney general, escalating Netanyahu-judiciary standoff
The cabinet voted unanimously to dismiss Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, intensifying the long-standing conflict between Netanyahu and the judiciary over judicial independence and power concentration.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
December 31 drops to 45%8%
The fatal bus incident intensified protests against Netanyahu’s plan to draft ultra‑Orthodox men, straining his coalition and prompting calls for his resignation, which coincided with the market’s slide to 45% on July 26.
Netanyahu meets with US President Trump to discuss Iran and regional security
On July 25, Netanyahu held a private meeting with US President Trump focusing on Iran and regional security issues. This meeting reinforced Netanyahu's active role in international diplomacy, reducing market expectations of his resignation by December 31, 2026, as he appeared politically engaged and influential.
Netanyahu and Trump abandon Gaza ceasefire negotiations with Hamas
December 31 drops to 54%5%
On July 25, Netanyahu announced Israel would seek alternative means to achieve goals in Gaza after pulling back from ceasefire talks, signaling a hardline stance that increased political risk but reduced likelihood of resignation by year-end. This hardened position contributed to a market price drop from 59% to 54%.
U.S. Senate leaders call on Trump to pressure Netanyahu over Gaza war
December 31 drops to 53%6%
A joint statement from senior U.S. Senate leaders urged the Trump administration to press Netanyahu to change his Gaza policy. The explicit foreign‑policy pressure reinforced concerns about Netanyahu’s political standing and helped drive the market down toward the low‑40 % range.
Netanyahu announces Israel intends to control all of Gaza amid ceasefire collapse
December 31 drops to 53%6%
After indirect ceasefire talks collapsed, Netanyahu signaled a hardline approach to Gaza, which increased political pressure and raised concerns about his government's stability.
Netanyahu seeks to calm tensions after ultra-Orthodox boy killed by bus
December 31 drops to 53%6%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu urged calm to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal political tensions but did not signal any resignation, contributing to a slight market price drop from 59% to 53%.
Netanyahu signals hardening stance on Gaza war, abandoning ceasefire talks
December 31 drops to 54%5%
On July 25, Netanyahu announced Israel would seek alternative options in the Gaza conflict after ceasefire talks faltered, signaling a tougher military approach. This hardened stance increased political pressure and uncertainty about his leadership, contributing to a market price drop from 59% to 54% for his resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu and Trump appear to abandon Gaza ceasefire negotiations with Hamas
December 31 drops to 54%5%
On July 25, 2025, Netanyahu and former US President Trump appeared to abandon ceasefire talks with Hamas, signaling a hardening stance in the Gaza conflict. This diminished prospects for a peaceful resolution and increased political pressure on Netanyahu, negatively impacting market confidence in his tenure lasting through 2026.
Netanyahu signs $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced approval of a historic $35 billion natural‑gas contract with Egypt, highlighting Israel’s emerging energy role and bolstering his political standing, which helped push the market to its early‑window high.
Rep. Ralph Norman announces run for South Carolina governor
On July 25, 2025, Rep. Ralph Norman announced his candidacy for governor, signaling political shifts in the U.S. but with no direct impact on Netanyahu's position. This event coincides with the market's initial high probability for Netanyahu's resignation, but it did not cause a significant price change.
Netanyahu's wife's retouched photos spark ethics debate
December 31 plunges to 59%15%
Official government distribution of heavily retouched images of Netanyahu's wife ignited a firestorm over ethical standards in state communications and record-keeping, damaging Netanyahu's personal credibility and potentially affecting public trust in his leadership.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 dips to 55%4%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a $35 billion natural‑gas export agreement with Egypt, a move seen as an attempt to bolster his regional standing but also sparked criticism from coalition partners who fear economic concessions could weaken his political base, lowering confidence in his year‑end tenure.
Netanyahu abandons Gaza ceasefire talks, signals alternative war plans
December 31 drops to 54%5%
On July 25, Netanyahu announced abandoning ceasefire negotiations with Hamas and pursuing alternative military options in Gaza, signaling a hardline approach that reduced market expectations of his stepping down soon.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire
December 31 dips to 55%4%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced he would sit on President Donald Trump’s newly‑formed Board of Peace, reversing earlier criticism and signaling closer US‑Israel alignment, which raised doubts about his political stability and pushed the market down.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Netanyahu's approval of a historic $35 billion natural gas deal with Egypt reinforced his role as a key regional leader and economic policymaker, signaling political stability and reducing market expectations of his imminent resignation.
Netanyahu publicly commits to full military control of Gaza Strip
December 31 drops to 54%5%
On July 25, 2025, Netanyahu announced plans for Israel to take full control of Gaza, aiming to remove Hamas and transfer governance to friendly Arab forces. This assertive stance increased doubts about his stepping down, causing a market drop from 59% to 54% Yes.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Netanyahu approved a major natural gas export deal to Egypt, which could help repair strained relations. This positive diplomatic move may have initially boosted market sentiment, contributing to the peak price of 74% on the same day.
Netanyahu signals end to Gaza ceasefire talks, seeks alternative war goals
December 31 drops to 53%6%
On July 25, Netanyahu announced Israel would seek alternative means to achieve its goals in Gaza after ceasefire talks stalled, signaling a hardening stance that reduced expectations of his resignation by December 31.
Ultra-Orthodox parties withdraw from Netanyahu's government over conscription crisis
December 31 drops to 53%6%
United Torah Judaism and Noam parties left the government citing opposition to military conscription laws, while Shas withdrew from the government but stayed in the coalition. This political fracture raised doubts about the government's stability and Netanyahu's hold on power, causing a market price drop for his remaining in office by December 31.
Netanyahu faces mounting political challenges as Haredi parties withdraw from government
In mid-July 2025, key ultra-Orthodox parties left Netanyahu's coalition, weakening his government and raising speculation about his political future. This political instability initially increased market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down by December 31, 2026.
Netanyahu temporarily assumes ministerial roles vacated by Haredim
December 31 dips to 56%2%
Netanyahu took over the duties of ministers who resigned from the Shas and United Torah Judaism parties, violating Israeli law and highlighting the government's fragility, which affected market confidence in his staying power.
Israel cabinet votes to dismiss attorney general, escalating judicial standoff
December 31 drops to 53%6%
The cabinet's unanimous vote to fire the attorney general intensified the long-standing conflict between Netanyahu and the judiciary, undermining his government's legitimacy.
Haredi parties withdraw from Netanyahu’s government amid conscription crisis
December 31 drops to 54%5%
United Torah Judaism and Noam parties left both government and coalition, while Shas withdrew from government but stayed in coalition, signaling a major government crisis and raising prospects of early elections. This political instability contributed to market doubts about Netanyahu’s tenure.
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