Presidential resignations remain exceptionally rare in U.S. history, with only one instance on record, supporting the strong trader consensus reflected in the 96.5% implied probability against resignation by the end of 2026. As an incumbent entering the second year of a term secured through the 2024 election, the officeholder faces no immediate institutional or electoral pressures that historically precede such decisions. Recent legislative activity and executive priorities have shown continuity rather than signals of departure. While late-breaking health developments, unforeseen legal proceedings, or sudden shifts in congressional support could theoretically alter the timeline, these remain low-probability events given current structural incentives and the absence of comparable precedents within the resolution window. The market pricing captures this durable baseline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
$538,890 Vol.
$538,890 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
4% 確率
$538,890 Vol.
$538,890 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Presidential resignations remain exceptionally rare in U.S. history, with only one instance on record, supporting the strong trader consensus reflected in the 96.5% implied probability against resignation by the end of 2026. As an incumbent entering the second year of a term secured through the 2024 election, the officeholder faces no immediate institutional or electoral pressures that historically precede such decisions. Recent legislative activity and executive priorities have shown continuity rather than signals of departure. While late-breaking health developments, unforeseen legal proceedings, or sudden shifts in congressional support could theoretically alter the timeline, these remain low-probability events given current structural incentives and the absence of comparable precedents within the resolution window. The market pricing captures this durable baseline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
音量
$538,890終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETリゾルバー
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Presidential resignations remain exceptionally rare in U.S. history, with only one instance on record, supporting the strong trader consensus reflected in the 96.5% implied probability against resignation by the end of 2026. As an incumbent entering the second year of a term secured through the 2024 election, the officeholder faces no immediate institutional or electoral pressures that historically precede such decisions. Recent legislative activity and executive priorities have shown continuity rather than signals of departure. While late-breaking health developments, unforeseen legal proceedings, or sudden shifts in congressional support could theoretically alter the timeline, these remain low-probability events given current structural incentives and the absence of comparable precedents within the resolution window. The market pricing captures this durable baseline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$538,890終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETリゾルバー
0x157Ce2d67...Presidential resignations remain exceptionally rare in U.S. history, with only one instance on record, supporting the strong trader consensus reflected in the 96.5% implied probability against resignation by the end of 2026. As an incumbent entering the second year of a term secured through the 2024 election, the officeholder faces no immediate institutional or electoral pressures that historically precede such decisions. Recent legislative activity and executive priorities have shown continuity rather than signals of departure. While late-breaking health developments, unforeseen legal proceedings, or sudden shifts in congressional support could theoretically alter the timeline, these remain low-probability events given current structural incentives and the absence of comparable precedents within the resolution window. The market pricing captures this durable baseline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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