Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability against President Trump resigning before 2027, driven by the historical rarity of presidential resignations outside extreme circumstances and the lack of credible political or institutional pressure in the current term. Trump's demonstrated resilience through prior legal and electoral challenges, combined with firm Republican congressional support and no active impeachment proceedings, reinforces market expectations that he will serve out the period. Recent months have shown no major health disclosures, family developments, or scandals shifting this view. Even with such high consensus, low-probability catalysts like acute medical events, sudden legislative reversals, or unforeseen personal decisions could still alter the outcome before the 2027 threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
3% 確率
$23,487 Vol.
$23,487 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
3% 確率
$23,487 Vol.
$23,487 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability against President Trump resigning before 2027, driven by the historical rarity of presidential resignations outside extreme circumstances and the lack of credible political or institutional pressure in the current term. Trump's demonstrated resilience through prior legal and electoral challenges, combined with firm Republican congressional support and no active impeachment proceedings, reinforces market expectations that he will serve out the period. Recent months have shown no major health disclosures, family developments, or scandals shifting this view. Even with such high consensus, low-probability catalysts like acute medical events, sudden legislative reversals, or unforeseen personal decisions could still alter the outcome before the 2027 threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
音量
$23,487終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability against President Trump resigning before 2027, driven by the historical rarity of presidential resignations outside extreme circumstances and the lack of credible political or institutional pressure in the current term. Trump's demonstrated resilience through prior legal and electoral challenges, combined with firm Republican congressional support and no active impeachment proceedings, reinforces market expectations that he will serve out the period. Recent months have shown no major health disclosures, family developments, or scandals shifting this view. Even with such high consensus, low-probability catalysts like acute medical events, sudden legislative reversals, or unforeseen personal decisions could still alter the outcome before the 2027 threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$23,487終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability against President Trump resigning before 2027, driven by the historical rarity of presidential resignations outside extreme circumstances and the lack of credible political or institutional pressure in the current term. Trump's demonstrated resilience through prior legal and electoral challenges, combined with firm Republican congressional support and no active impeachment proceedings, reinforces market expectations that he will serve out the period. Recent months have shown no major health disclosures, family developments, or scandals shifting this view. Even with such high consensus, low-probability catalysts like acute medical events, sudden legislative reversals, or unforeseen personal decisions could still alter the outcome before the 2027 threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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