Traders assign overwhelming probability against Donald Trump resigning before 2027 due to the absence of any credible political, legal, or personal pressures that would prompt such a step during the early portion of his term. Following the 2024 election outcome, public statements and administration actions have emphasized continuity and policy implementation through the full term, with no indications of voluntary departure or health-related incapacity. Historical precedent shows presidential resignations remain exceptionally rare, typically tied to acute scandals or loss of congressional support that have not materialized here. The consensus also accounts for institutional factors, including term structure and party dynamics that favor completion of the mandate. Even with this high implied probability, low-probability scenarios such as a severe medical event, unforeseen family circumstances, or an unprecedented crisis could still shift the outlook if they emerge within the resolution window.