2028年大統領選挙の勝者

JD・ヴァンス 25.1%

ジョン・オソフ 11.5%

アレクサンドリア・オカシオ＝コルテス 10.8%

マルコ・ルビオ 10.5%

$695,626,979 Vol.

2028/11/06

3.25%を獲得

JD・ヴァンス

$15,866,899 Vol.

25%

ジョン・オソフ

$5,614,132 Vol.

11%

アレクサンドリア・オカシオ＝コルテス

$13,508,669 Vol.

11%

マルコ・ルビオ

$12,129,099 Vol.

11%

ギャビン・ニューサム

$17,980,289 Vol.

カマラ・ハリス

$8,846,506 Vol.

ジョシュ・シャピロ

$7,328,341 Vol.

ピート・ブティジェッジ

$8,075,217 Vol.

ドナルド・トランプ

$9,960,980 Vol.

マーク・ケリー

$626,030 Vol.

ドウェイン・“ザ・ロック”・ジョンソン

$8,295,672 Vol.

ロン・デサンティス

$12,496,484 Vol.

タッカー・カールソン

$14,126,641 Vol.

アンディ・ベシア

$19,143,781 Vol.

ウェス・ムーア

$12,350,963 Vol.

ロ・カンナ

$10,758,698 Vol.

グレッグ・アボット

$35,292,270 Vol.

トーマス・マッシー

$8,231,593 Vol.

イーロン・マスク

$26,075,869 Vol.

グレン・ヤンキン

$26,538,584 Vol.

ジェイミー・ダイモン

$10,878,646 Vol.

ドナルド・トランプ・ジュニア

$13,684,206 Vol.

ニッキー・ヘイリー

$28,684,412 Vol.

ミシェル・オバマ

$18,753,550 Vol.

イヴァンカ・トランプ

$8,147,764 Vol.

<1%

ジェームズ・タラリコ

$6,987,872 Vol.

<1%

グレッチェン・ウィットマー

$15,526,630 Vol.

<1%

JBプリツカー

$12,807,322 Vol.

<1%

ラファエル・ワーノック

$575,307 Vol.

<1%

トゥルシ・ギャバード

$34,541,848 Vol.

<1%

エリック・トランプ

$18,701,753 Vol.

<1%

トム・コットン

$1,400,546 Vol.

<1%

ティム・ウォルズ

$44,564,836 Vol.

<1%

ティム・スコット

$366,371 Vol.

<1%

ダグ・バーガム

$363,509 Vol.

<1%

レブロン・ジェームズ

$54,607,447 Vol.

<1%

リック・スコット

$363,972 Vol.

<1%

スティーブン・スミス

$33,416,886 Vol.

<1%

ピート・ヘグセス

$10,194,778 Vol.

<1%

アダム・シフ

$894,620 Vol.

<1%

エリッサ・スロトキン

$477,760 Vol.

<1%

ヴィベック・ラマスワミ

$37,780,952 Vol.

<1%

キム・カーダシアン

$40,168,928 Vol.

<1%

ゾーラン・マムダニ

$22,117,538 Vol.

<1%

ジョシュ・スタイン

$1,011,326 Vol.

<1%

アビゲイル・スパンバーガー

$302,352 Vol.

<1%

ハキーム・ジェフリーズ

$258,604 Vol.

<1%

キャンディス・オーウェンズ

$519,460 Vol.

<1%

マイク・ジョンソン

$363,003 Vol.

<1%

ジェイレン・ブランソン

$2,708,941 Vol.

<1%

ジョン・N・ケネディ

$374,527 Vol.

<1%

アレックス・パディラ

$834,593 Vol.

<1%

JD・ヴァンス 25.1%

ジョン・オソフ 11.5%

アレクサンドリア・オカシオ＝コルテス 10.8%

マルコ・ルビオ 10.5%

$695,626,979 Vol.

2028/11/06

3.25%を獲得

JD・ヴァンス

$15,866,899 Vol.

25%

ジョン・オソフ

$5,614,132 Vol.

11%

アレクサンドリア・オカシオ＝コルテス

$13,508,669 Vol.

11%

マルコ・ルビオ

$12,129,099 Vol.

11%

ギャビン・ニューサム

$17,980,289 Vol.

カマラ・ハリス

$8,846,506 Vol.

ジョシュ・シャピロ

$7,328,341 Vol.

ピート・ブティジェッジ

$8,075,217 Vol.

ドナルド・トランプ

$9,960,980 Vol.

マーク・ケリー

$626,030 Vol.

ドウェイン・“ザ・ロック”・ジョンソン

$8,295,672 Vol.

ロン・デサンティス

$12,496,484 Vol.

タッカー・カールソン

$14,126,641 Vol.

アンディ・ベシア

$19,143,781 Vol.

ウェス・ムーア

$12,350,963 Vol.

ロ・カンナ

$10,758,698 Vol.

グレッグ・アボット

$35,292,270 Vol.

トーマス・マッシー

$8,231,593 Vol.

イーロン・マスク

$26,075,869 Vol.

グレン・ヤンキン

$26,538,584 Vol.

ジェイミー・ダイモン

$10,878,646 Vol.

ドナルド・トランプ・ジュニア

$13,684,206 Vol.

ニッキー・ヘイリー

$28,684,412 Vol.

ミシェル・オバマ

$18,753,550 Vol.

イヴァンカ・トランプ

$8,147,764 Vol.

<1%

ジェームズ・タラリコ

$6,987,872 Vol.

<1%

グレッチェン・ウィットマー

$15,526,630 Vol.

<1%

JBプリツカー

$12,807,322 Vol.

<1%

ラファエル・ワーノック

$575,307 Vol.

<1%

トゥルシ・ギャバード

$34,541,848 Vol.

<1%

エリック・トランプ

$18,701,753 Vol.

<1%

トム・コットン

$1,400,546 Vol.

<1%

ティム・ウォルズ

$44,564,836 Vol.

<1%

ティム・スコット

$366,371 Vol.

<1%

ダグ・バーガム

$363,509 Vol.

<1%

レブロン・ジェームズ

$54,607,447 Vol.

<1%

リック・スコット

$363,972 Vol.

<1%

スティーブン・スミス

$33,416,886 Vol.

<1%

ピート・ヘグセス

$10,194,778 Vol.

<1%

アダム・シフ

$894,620 Vol.

<1%

エリッサ・スロトキン

$477,760 Vol.

<1%

ヴィベック・ラマスワミ

$37,780,952 Vol.

<1%

キム・カーダシアン

$40,168,928 Vol.

<1%

ゾーラン・マムダニ

$22,117,538 Vol.

<1%

ジョシュ・スタイン

$1,011,326 Vol.

<1%

アビゲイル・スパンバーガー

$302,352 Vol.

<1%

ハキーム・ジェフリーズ

$258,604 Vol.

<1%

キャンディス・オーウェンズ

$519,460 Vol.

<1%

マイク・ジョンソン

$363,003 Vol.

<1%

ジェイレン・ブランソン

$2,708,941 Vol.

<1%

ジョン・N・ケネディ

$374,527 Vol.

<1%

アレックス・パディラ

$834,593 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

JD Vance leads the 2028 presidential winner market at 25.1% as the sitting vice president, benefiting from early Republican primary positioning and name recognition ahead of term-limited President Trump. Recent national polls show him ahead of Marco Rubio and others in hypothetical GOP contests, though support has fluctuated modestly. The Democratic field remains fragmented, with Jon Ossoff, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom, and Kamala Harris trading in the 3–12% range amid shifting early surveys and no established frontrunner. Traders price the wide-open race around incumbency advantages, primary polling trends, and potential consolidation behind party standard-bearers before 2028 primaries.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日 2026年8月29日 15:01 UTC

Aug 26 2026

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rejoins Democratic Socialists of America amid 2028 run speculation

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 14%1%

Ocasio-Cortez renewed her membership in the DSA after a seven-year lapse, signaling a recommitment to progressive politics ahead of 2028, supporting her market gains.

Aug 24 2026

JD Vance campaigns in Maine amid US-Canada trade tensions

JD Vance rises to 24%3%

Vance's visit to Maine during heightened trade tensions with Canada highlighted his active political role and reinforced his market position at 24%.

Jul 1 2026

Zogby poll shows JD Vance leading Ocasio-Cortez and Newsom in 2028 matchups

JD Vance jumps to 20%5%

A Zogby Analytics poll released in early July showed JD Vance leading Democratic contenders Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gavin Newsom in hypothetical 2028 presidential matchups. This poll reinforced Vance's position as a frontrunner, supporting his market price stability and slight increase.

Jun 26 2026

Pete Buttigieg falsely accused in child protective services report

Pete Buttigieg dips to 2%1%

An anonymous caller falsely reported that Pete Buttigieg's children were in danger, leading to their temporary removal and a police investigation. The report was quickly determined to be false, but the incident caused personal distress and negative publicity, reflected in a drop in Buttigieg's market price.

Jun 22 2026

JD Vance says Iran will allow UN nuclear inspectors after Swiss talks

JD Vance jumps to 21%6%

Vice President Vance announced that Iran had agreed to allow UN nuclear inspectors back into the country after a “very, very good” round of talks in Switzerland. The breakthrough boosted Vance’s perceived competence on foreign policy and pushed his market price up from 15 % to 21 % by early July.

Jun 15 2026

Newsom races to sink California billionaire tax before June deadline

Gavin Newsom dips to 15%3%

Governor Newsom launched a last‑ditch campaign to sink a proposed California billionaire tax before the June 25 deadline. The move was viewed as a sign of his willingness to fight powerful interests, but the market saw his presidential odds slip from 18 % to 16 % on June 12 and down to 15 % by June 26.

Jun 2 2026

California primary election results advance Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton, Newsom ineligible

Gavin Newsom dips to 14%3%

The California top-two primary election was held, with Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton advancing. Incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom was ineligible for re-election due to term limits, which contributed to a slight decline in his market price from 17% to 14%.

May 23 2026

Rubio and Vance emerge as leading contenders in Republican 2028 succession race

Marco Rubio rises to 14%2%

Analysis highlighted the intensifying contest between Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to succeed Donald Trump, with Vance maintaining a lead but Rubio gaining ground through diplomatic and policy roles. This dynamic was reflected in market price movements favoring Rubio and some volatility for Vance.

May 7 2026

Kamala Harris campaigns in Las Vegas, criticizing Trump over Iran war

Kamala Harris rises to 5%1%

Kamala Harris held a public event in Las Vegas where she criticized Donald Trump for the ongoing war in Iran, reinforcing her active political presence and positioning herself as a vocal critic of Trump-era policies. This likely boosted her market price by increasing her visibility and appeal to Democratic voters.

Apr 28 2026

Democrats express lukewarm enthusiasm for Kamala Harris's 2028 presidential bid

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Reports emerged that major Democratic donors and party leaders showed limited enthusiasm for backing Kamala Harris in 2028, reflecting skepticism about her appeal to swing voters. This news likely contributed to a modest increase in her market price as it highlighted her ongoing relevance in the race despite challenges.

Apr 25 2026

JD Vance leads US delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony in Italy

JD Vance rises to 19%1%

JD Vance was announced to lead the US delegation to the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics, attending the opening ceremony alongside Marco Rubio. This high-profile diplomatic and public engagement increased market confidence in Vance's prominence and viability as a presidential candidate, boosting his price from 18% to 19%.

Apr 24 2026

White House insiders increasingly view Marco Rubio as serious 2028 contender

Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%

Reports emerged that White House insiders see Secretary of State Marco Rubio as a strong potential candidate for the 2028 presidential election, praising his handling of foreign conflicts and political savvy. This positive coverage contributed to a price increase from 11% to 15% in early May.

Apr 23 2026

Trump privately questions JD Vance's viability, shifts favor toward Marco Rubio

JD Vance dips to 18%1%

Reports emerged that President Donald Trump was doubting Vice President JD Vance's ability to lead the MAGA movement into 2028, comparing him unfavorably to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This caused a temporary dip in Vance's market price and a rise for Rubio as Trump’s influence is critical in Republican primaries.

Apr 23 2026

Vice President JD Vance and wife Usha expect fourth child

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

Vance and his wife announced on social media that they are expecting a fourth child. The announcement generated a surge of positive coverage about the Vice President's family, pushing JD Vance’s odds up from 20 % to 28 % by early August 2025 and keeping the market above the 20 % floor for the rest of the analysis window.

Apr 23 2026

Trump promotes Vance-Rubio 2028 presidential ticket speculation

Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%

President Donald Trump publicly suggested that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would make a strong presidential ticket in 2028, boosting market confidence in both candidates. This endorsement speculation caused price increases for Rubio and helped stabilize Vance's position.

Apr 23 2026

Marco Rubio gains visibility as Secretary of State amid Iran talks and White House presence

Marco Rubio rises to 11%2%

On April 23, 2026, Rubio was prominently featured with President Trump in the Oval Office and engaged in diplomatic efforts including Iran negotiations, raising his profile and market odds from 9% to 11% shortly after. His role as a key national security figure increased investor confidence in his candidacy.

Apr 11 2026

U.S. Vice President JD Vance meets Pakistani premier in Islamabad on Iran talks

JD Vance dips to 27%4%

Vice President JD Vance travelled to Islamabad for Iran‑related talks with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The diplomatic assignment was widely reported as a high‑stakes test for Vance’s foreign‑policy credentials, and the market price for Vance fell from 31 % on 2026‑01‑03 to 27 % on 2026‑01‑17, reflecting dampened expectations for his presidential bid.

Apr 10 2026

Kamala Harris publicly signals consideration of 2028 presidential run

Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris stated at the National Action Network Convention that she is "thinking about" running for president in 2028, marking her clearest public indication yet. This announcement led to a modest increase in her market price as she emerged as a leading Democratic contender.

Apr 10 2026

Kamala Harris signals potential 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris publicly acknowledged she is "thinking about" running for president in 2028, marking her clearest indication yet of a possible third campaign. This announcement increased market confidence in her candidacy, reflected in a price rise from 3% to 4% around this date.

Feb 14 2026

Marco Rubio’s Munich speech boosts his foreign‑policy profile

Marco Rubio jumps to 12%5%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a high‑profile speech at the Munich Security Conference, positioning himself as a key foreign‑policy voice. The appearance coincided with a rise in his market price from 7 % on 2026‑02‑07 to 12 % on 2026‑03‑14, the highest level recorded in the analysis period.

Feb 6 2026

JD Vance and Marco Rubio join U.S. delegation to Winter Olympics opening ceremony

Marco Rubio rises to 9%2%

The White House announced that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio will attend the opening ceremony of the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy. Rubio’s high‑visibility role boosted his market price from 7% to 9% by early January and helped sustain his rise through March.

Feb 3 2026

Gavin Newsom’s memoir hints at 2028 presidential ambitions

Gavin Newsom jumps to 17%7%

Newsom publicly announced the release of his memoir “Young Man in a Hurry” and hinted at a possible 2028 presidential run. The announcement sparked a surge in his market price, which rose from 13 % on 2025‑07‑11 to a peak of 23 % on 2025‑09‑07 before settling at 17 % by the analysis end.

Jan 8 2026

Josh Shapiro launches re‑election bid, foreshadowing 2028 ambitions

Josh Shapiro drops to 2%5%

Shapiro’s launch of his 2026 re‑election campaign, emphasizing a fight against “chaos and toxicity,” coincided with a sharp decline in his market price from 7 % on July 11 to 2 % by April 13, as the market interpreted the move as a focus on the governorship rather than a 2028 bid.

Jan 3 2026

U.S. operation captures Venezuelan President Maduro, raising Secretary Rubio’s profile

Marco Rubio jumps to 15%6%

Rubio, now U.S. Secretary of State, led the successful operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The dramatic foreign‑policy win was covered by multiple outlets and drove Rubio’s market odds up from 9 % on Dec 20 2025 to 15 % on Jan 16 2026 before falling back to 12 % by late June.

Dec 21 2025

Poll shows Gavin Newsom and JD Vance as early frontrunners in 2028 race

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

A CNN poll identified Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom as early leaders in their parties' 2028 presidential fields, reinforcing Vance's GOP momentum and Newsom's Democratic prospects. This poll influenced market prices, with Vance around 28-30% and Newsom rising to about 18%.

Dec 20 2025

JD Vance heads up US‑Iran cease‑fire negotiations in Switzerland

JD Vance rises to 30%2%

Vice‑President Vance led the first direct talks with Iran in Switzerland, positioning himself as the face of a potential cease‑fire deal. The high‑profile diplomatic effort boosted his national visibility and led the market price for JD Vance to climb from 28 % on Dec 8 to 30 % on Dec 20.

Dec 14 2025

Kamala Harris expands 2026 book tour signaling 2028 campaign viability

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Harris announced an expanded book tour promoting her 2024 campaign memoir, including stops in key primary states with significant Black voter populations. This move was widely interpreted as laying groundwork for a 2028 presidential run, supporting her market price stability and slight gains.

Dec 10 2025

Opinion piece crowns Gavin Newsom as the leading 2028 Democratic hopeful

Gavin Newsom rises to 13%3%

The PCC Courier editorial framed Newsom as the Democratic frontrunner for 2028, citing his social‑media strategy and speculation that he will run. This positive narrative coincides with the jump from 10 % to 13 % on Dec 10 2025 and continued upward pressure to a peak of 23 % in September, lifting his market price to 17 % by the window’s end.

Nov 17 2025

Ted Cruz challenges Tucker Carlson amid 2028 presidential speculation

Tucker Carlson plunges to 1%49%

Senator Ted Cruz publicly criticized Tucker Carlson's foreign policy views and rhetoric, positioning himself as a traditional Republican alternative for 2028. This feud contributed to a decline in Carlson's market price from 50% to near 1%, reflecting diminished confidence in his candidacy.

Nov 1 2025

California voters pass Proposition 50, bolstering Gov. Newsom’s presidential ambitions

Gavin Newsom rises to 22%4%

California voters approved Proposition 50, a redistricting measure that would make the state’s congressional map more favorable to Democrats. The victory was widely reported as a boost to Newsom’s national profile and his 2028 presidential prospects, and the market price for Newsom rose from 18 % on Oct 28 2025 to 22 % on Nov 14 2025 before settling back to 19 % by Dec 1 2025.

Oct 26 2025

California Gov. Gavin Newsom says he is weighing a 2028 presidential bid

Gavin Newsom jumps to 19%9%

Newsom said on CBS Sunday Morning he would decide on a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterms. The announcement sparked a surge in his market price from 10 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 19 % on 2025‑08‑01, launching the upward trend that carried the odds to a peak of 16 % by early 2026.

Sep 18 2025

Poll shows Tucker Carlson as early front‑runner before backlash over Ukraine comments

Tucker Carlson plunges to 3%47%

Tucker Carlson was listed as a top‑draw candidate in a speculative “Who will run in 2028?” poll, peaking at 50 % on Sep 18 2025. Within three days the poll collapsed after his controversial statements about the war in Ukraine, dropping his price to 1 % on Sep 21 2025.

Aug 3 2025

Vice President JD Vance announces $1.3 billion California Medicaid deferral

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

Vice President JD Vance announced a $1.3 billion deferral of Medicaid funds to California as part of the administration’s anti‑fraud task force. The high‑profile announcement boosted Vance’s national visibility and his standing among conservatives, lifting his market price from 19 % to 28 % within a week.

Jul 30 2025

Former Vice‑President Kamala Harris will not run for California governor in 2026

Kamala Harris dips to 4%2%

Multiple outlets (NYTimes, PBS, AP) reported that former Vice‑President Harris announced she would not run for California governor in 2026, removing her from a potential 2028 presidential path and pushing her market price down from 6 % (May 11 2026) to 4 % (Jul 4 2026).

Jul 18 2025

Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris reach peak market interest amid early 2026 speculation

Gavin Newsom surges to 50%40%

Both Newsom and Harris reached high market prices around mid-2025, reflecting speculation about their potential 2026 or 2028 runs. Newsom's peak was linked to his combative style and national profile, while Harris was still considered a potential candidate before she announced she would not run in 2026.

Jul 17 2025

Democrats begin early moves for 2028 presidential race

Democratic candidates including Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, and Pete Buttigieg started visiting early primary states and making strategic moves, signaling serious intentions for the 2028 presidential race. This early activity increased market interest and influenced price changes for these candidates.

Jul 15 2025

Gavin Newsom signs California redistricting bills, schedules special election

Gavin Newsom rises to 13%3%

California Governor Gavin Newsom signed legislation to redraw congressional districts and scheduled a special election for November 4, 2025, aiming to favor Democrats. This move was seen as a strategic political action enhancing Newsom's profile as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, contributing to his market price rise.

Jul 15 2025

Turning Point USA pledges early support for JD Vance in key primary states

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

Turning Point USA announced it will mobilize staff and volunteers in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada to back Vice President JD Vance for president, following Erika Kirk’s endorsement. The endorsement signaled organized grassroots momentum, pushing Vance’s price from 19% to 28% by early August.

Jul 11 2025

Marco Rubio asserts non-recognition of Maduro regime in Venezuela

Marco Rubio jumps to 16%9%

On July 11, 2025, Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly declared that Nicolás Maduro is not the legitimate president of Venezuela, reinforcing the Trump administration's hardline stance. This statement bolstered Rubio's profile as a strong foreign policy figure, leading to a price increase in his market outcome from 7% to 16% in the following weeks.

Jul 11 2025

Gavin Newsom campaigns in early 2028 presidential race with growing support

Gavin Newsom jumps to 16%6%

Gavin Newsom began gaining traction as a leading Democratic contender for the 2028 presidential election, with early polling showing rising support and increased national profile through media appearances and criticism of Republican policies. This contributed to a rise in his market price from 10% to 16%.

Jul 11 2025

Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidency and plans early state support

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, endorsed Vice President JD Vance for president and announced plans to support him in key early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire, boosting his market price from 19% to 28%. This endorsement signaled strong conservative grassroots backing for Vance.

Aug 26 2026

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rejoins Democratic Socialists of America amid 2028 run speculation

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 14%1%

Ocasio-Cortez renewed her membership in the DSA after a seven-year lapse, signaling a recommitment to progressive politics ahead of 2028, supporting her market gains.

Aug 24 2026

JD Vance campaigns in Maine amid US-Canada trade tensions

JD Vance rises to 24%3%

Vance's visit to Maine during heightened trade tensions with Canada highlighted his active political role and reinforced his market position at 24%.

Jul 1 2026

Zogby poll shows JD Vance leading Ocasio-Cortez and Newsom in 2028 matchups

JD Vance jumps to 20%5%

Jun 26 2026

Pete Buttigieg falsely accused in child protective services report

Pete Buttigieg dips to 2%1%

Jun 22 2026

JD Vance says Iran will allow UN nuclear inspectors after Swiss talks

JD Vance jumps to 21%6%

Jun 15 2026

Newsom races to sink California billionaire tax before June deadline

Gavin Newsom dips to 15%3%

Jun 2 2026

California primary election results advance Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton, Newsom ineligible

Gavin Newsom dips to 14%3%

May 23 2026

Rubio and Vance emerge as leading contenders in Republican 2028 succession race

Marco Rubio rises to 14%2%

May 7 2026

Kamala Harris campaigns in Las Vegas, criticizing Trump over Iran war

Kamala Harris rises to 5%1%

Apr 28 2026

Democrats express lukewarm enthusiasm for Kamala Harris's 2028 presidential bid

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Apr 25 2026

JD Vance leads US delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony in Italy

JD Vance rises to 19%1%

Apr 24 2026

White House insiders increasingly view Marco Rubio as serious 2028 contender

Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%

Apr 23 2026

Trump privately questions JD Vance's viability, shifts favor toward Marco Rubio

JD Vance dips to 18%1%

Apr 23 2026

Vice President JD Vance and wife Usha expect fourth child

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

Apr 23 2026

Trump promotes Vance-Rubio 2028 presidential ticket speculation

Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%

Apr 23 2026

Marco Rubio gains visibility as Secretary of State amid Iran talks and White House presence

Marco Rubio rises to 11%2%

Apr 11 2026

U.S. Vice President JD Vance meets Pakistani premier in Islamabad on Iran talks

JD Vance dips to 27%4%

Apr 10 2026

Kamala Harris publicly signals consideration of 2028 presidential run

Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%

Apr 10 2026

Kamala Harris signals potential 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Feb 14 2026

Marco Rubio’s Munich speech boosts his foreign‑policy profile

Marco Rubio jumps to 12%5%

Feb 6 2026

JD Vance and Marco Rubio join U.S. delegation to Winter Olympics opening ceremony

Marco Rubio rises to 9%2%

Feb 3 2026

Gavin Newsom’s memoir hints at 2028 presidential ambitions

Gavin Newsom jumps to 17%7%

Jan 8 2026

Josh Shapiro launches re‑election bid, foreshadowing 2028 ambitions

Josh Shapiro drops to 2%5%

Jan 3 2026

U.S. operation captures Venezuelan President Maduro, raising Secretary Rubio’s profile

Marco Rubio jumps to 15%6%

Dec 21 2025

Poll shows Gavin Newsom and JD Vance as early frontrunners in 2028 race

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

Dec 20 2025

JD Vance heads up US‑Iran cease‑fire negotiations in Switzerland

JD Vance rises to 30%2%

Dec 14 2025

Kamala Harris expands 2026 book tour signaling 2028 campaign viability

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Dec 10 2025

Opinion piece crowns Gavin Newsom as the leading 2028 Democratic hopeful

Gavin Newsom rises to 13%3%

Nov 17 2025

Ted Cruz challenges Tucker Carlson amid 2028 presidential speculation

Tucker Carlson plunges to 1%49%

Nov 1 2025

California voters pass Proposition 50, bolstering Gov. Newsom’s presidential ambitions

Gavin Newsom rises to 22%4%

Oct 26 2025

California Gov. Gavin Newsom says he is weighing a 2028 presidential bid

Gavin Newsom jumps to 19%9%

Sep 18 2025

Poll shows Tucker Carlson as early front‑runner before backlash over Ukraine comments

Tucker Carlson plunges to 3%47%

Aug 3 2025

Vice President JD Vance announces $1.3 billion California Medicaid deferral

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

Jul 30 2025

Former Vice‑President Kamala Harris will not run for California governor in 2026

Kamala Harris dips to 4%2%

Jul 18 2025

Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris reach peak market interest amid early 2026 speculation

Gavin Newsom surges to 50%40%

Jul 17 2025

Democrats begin early moves for 2028 presidential race

Jul 15 2025

Gavin Newsom signs California redistricting bills, schedules special election

Gavin Newsom rises to 13%3%

Jul 15 2025

Turning Point USA pledges early support for JD Vance in key primary states

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

Jul 11 2025

Marco Rubio asserts non-recognition of Maduro regime in Venezuela

Marco Rubio jumps to 16%9%

Jul 11 2025

Gavin Newsom campaigns in early 2028 presidential race with growing support

Gavin Newsom jumps to 16%6%

Jul 11 2025

Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidency and plans early state support

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「2028年大統領選挙の勝者」はPolymarket上の52+個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「JD・ヴァンス」で25%、次いで「ジョン・オソフ」が11%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、25¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に25%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2028年大統領選挙の勝者」は$695.6 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Jul 11, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2028年大統領選挙の勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている52+個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2028年大統領選挙の勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「JD・ヴァンス」で25%であり、市場がこの結果に25%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ジョン・オソフ」で11%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2028年大統領選挙の勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。

はい。情報を得るために取引する必要はありません。このページは「2028年大統領選挙の勝者」のライブトラッカーとして機能します。結果の確率は新しい取引が入るにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。このページをブックマークし、コメントセクションで他のトレーダーの意見を確認できます。チャートの時間範囲フィルターを使用して、オッズが時間とともにどのように変化したかを確認することもできます。市場が何を予測しているかを無料でリアルタイムに見ることができます。

Polymarketのオッズは、自分の信念に実際のお金を投じる本物のトレーダーによって設定されており、正確な予測を生み出す傾向があります。“2028年大統領選挙の勝者”で$695.6 millionが取引されており、これらの価格は何千人もの参加者の集合的な知識と確信を集約しています——世論調査、専門家の予測、従来の調査を上回ることも多いです。Polymarketのような予測市場は、特にイベントが決済日に近づくにつれて、精度の実績が優れています。例えば、Polymarketの1ヶ月精度スコアは94%です。Polymarketの予測精度に関する最新統計は、精度ページをご覧ください。

「2028年大統領選挙の勝者」で最初の取引を行うには、無料のPolymarketアカウントに登録し、暗号通貨、クレジットカードまたはデビットカード、銀行振込で入金してください。アカウントに入金したら、このページに戻り、取引したい結果を選び、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックしてください。予測市場が初めての方は、Polymarketの任意のページ上部にある「仕組み」リンクをクリックして、ステップバイステップのガイドをご覧ください。

Polymarketでは、各結果の価格は市場の暗示確率を表します。「2028年大統領選挙の勝者」市場における「JD・ヴァンス」の価格25¢は、トレーダーが「JD・ヴァンス」が正しい結果となる確率をおよそ25%と集合的に評価していることを意味します。25¢で「はい」のシェアを購入し、結果が正しければ、シェアあたり$1.00を受け取ります。つまりシェアあたり75¢の利益です。正しくない場合、そのシェアは$0の価値になります。

「2028年大統領選挙の勝者」市場はNov 6, 2028を決済日とする長期予測です。約2年以上先になります。Polymarketの長期市場は、イベントの展開に伴いオッズが大きく変動することがよくあります。いつでも取引できますし、このページをブックマークすることもできます。

「2028年大統領選挙の勝者」市場には1,013件のコメントによる活発なコミュニティがあり、トレーダーが分析を共有し、結果を議論し、最新の動向について話し合っています。下のコメントセクションまでスクロールして、他の参加者の意見を読んでください。「トップホルダー」でフィルタリングしたり、「アクティビティ」タブでリアルタイムの取引フィードを確認することもできます。

Polymarketは世界最大の予測市場で、現実世界のイベントについて最新情報を得て、知識から利益を得ることができます。トレーダーは政治や選挙から暗号通貨、金融、スポーツ、テクノロジー、文化まで幅広いトピックの結果のシェアを売買しています。「2028年大統領選挙の勝者」のような市場も含まれます。価格は金融的確信に裏付けられたリアルタイムの確率を反映しており、世論調査、評論家、従来の調査よりも迅速で正確なシグナルを提供することがよくあります。

2028年大統領選挙の勝者

2028年大統領選挙の勝者

ルール

市場コンテキスト

ルール

市場コンテキスト

コメント (1,013)

トップホルダー

ポジション

アクティビティ

よくある質問

「2028年大統領選挙の勝者」予測市場とは何ですか？

「2028年大統領選挙の勝者」はPolymarketでどれくらいの取引活動を生み出しましたか？

「2028年大統領選挙の勝者」で取引するにはどうすればいいですか？

「2028年大統領選挙の勝者」の現在のオッズは？

「2028年大統領選挙の勝者」はどのように決済されますか？

取引せずに「2028年大統領選挙の勝者」をフォローできますか？

Polymarketの「2028年大統領選挙の勝者」のオッズはなぜ信頼できるのですか？

「2028年大統領選挙の勝者」で取引を始めるにはどうすればいいですか？

「JD・ヴァンス」の価格25¢は何を意味しますか？

「2028年大統領選挙の勝者」市場はいつ閉じますか？

トレーダーは「2028年大統領選挙の勝者」について何と言っていますか？

Polymarketとは何ですか？