**Québec Solidaire maintains competitive positions in multiple Montreal-area ridings and select Quebec City districts ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial election.** Seat projections from models including 338Canada and Qc125 place the party in the 2–10 seat range, with safe or likely holds in ridings such as Gouin, Mercier, and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques. Recent Léger and other polling shows QS support at 7–11% provincewide, with concentrations sufficient for first-past-the-post wins in urban strongholds despite trailing parties like the PQ, CAQ, and PLQ overall. The election call on August 27 confirmed the fixed-date vote, with no developments indicating a collapse of QS’s geographic base. The party’s concentrated vote efficiency in francophone and progressive urban pockets continues to support at least minimal representation, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the elevated “Yes” probability. Scheduled campaign events through September could test these localized advantages but have not yet altered the structural outlook.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
94% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/05
はい
94% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/05
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Québec Solidaire maintains competitive positions in multiple Montreal-area ridings and select Quebec City districts ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial election.** Seat projections from models including 338Canada and Qc125 place the party in the 2–10 seat range, with safe or likely holds in ridings such as Gouin, Mercier, and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques. Recent Léger and other polling shows QS support at 7–11% provincewide, with concentrations sufficient for first-past-the-post wins in urban strongholds despite trailing parties like the PQ, CAQ, and PLQ overall.
The election call on August 27 confirmed the fixed-date vote, with no developments indicating a collapse of QS’s geographic base. The party’s concentrated vote efficiency in francophone and progressive urban pockets continues to support at least minimal representation, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the elevated “Yes” probability. Scheduled campaign events through September could test these localized advantages but have not yet altered the structural outlook.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
マーケット開始日： Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
音量
$278終了日
2026/10/05マーケット開始日
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Québec Solidaire maintains competitive positions in multiple Montreal-area ridings and select Quebec City districts ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial election.** Seat projections from models including 338Canada and Qc125 place the party in the 2–10 seat range, with safe or likely holds in ridings such as Gouin, Mercier, and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques. Recent Léger and other polling shows QS support at 7–11% provincewide, with concentrations sufficient for first-past-the-post wins in urban strongholds despite trailing parties like the PQ, CAQ, and PLQ overall.
The election call on August 27 confirmed the fixed-date vote, with no developments indicating a collapse of QS’s geographic base. The party’s concentrated vote efficiency in francophone and progressive urban pockets continues to support at least minimal representation, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the elevated “Yes” probability. Scheduled campaign events through September could test these localized advantages but have not yet altered the structural outlook.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
音量
$278終了日
2026/10/05マーケット開始日
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Québec Solidaire maintains competitive positions in multiple Montreal-area ridings and select Quebec City districts ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial election.** Seat projections from models including 338Canada and Qc125 place the party in the 2–10 seat range, with safe or likely holds in ridings such as Gouin, Mercier, and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques. Recent Léger and other polling shows QS support at 7–11% provincewide, with concentrations sufficient for first-past-the-post wins in urban strongholds despite trailing parties like the PQ, CAQ, and PLQ overall. The election call on August 27 confirmed the fixed-date vote, with no developments indicating a collapse of QS’s geographic base. The party’s concentrated vote efficiency in francophone and progressive urban pockets continues to support at least minimal representation, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the elevated “Yes” probability. Scheduled campaign events through September could test these localized advantages but have not yet altered the structural outlook.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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