Recent polling from Quaest, Ideia, and Nexus shows President Lula leading with 39-43% ahead of the October 4 first round, positioning Flávio Bolsonaro as the clear second at 30-37% while Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and others remain in single digits. This gap stems from the Liberal Party's July convention nominating Flávio as the standard-bearer for the right after Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement, consolidating conservative support despite earlier audio leaks tied to the Banco Master scandal that temporarily widened Lula's advantage. Fragmented alternatives, including Renan Santos's Mission Party nomination and Michelle Bolsonaro's reconciled role, limit challenges to Flávio's position. Lula's confirmation of Geraldo Alckmin as running mate and stable approval further reinforce expectations of a first-round lead for the incumbent, leaving second place as the primary contest among opposition figures entering the campaign period.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 82%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 8.2%
レナン・サントス 7.8%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ <1%
$4,484,380 Vol.
$4,484,380 Vol.
2026/10/04
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
82%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ
8%
レナン・サントス
8%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
1%
ロナルド・カイアド
1%
ロメウ・ゼマ
<1%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
<1%
ジャイール・ボルソナロ
<1%
カミロ・サンタナ
<1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
<1%
アルド・ヘベロ
<1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
<1%
ジェラウド・アルキミン
<1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
<1%
エルデル・バルバリョ
<1%
テレーザ・クリスティナ
<1%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 82%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 8.2%
レナン・サントス 7.8%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ <1%
$4,484,380 Vol.
$4,484,380 Vol.
2026/10/04
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
$238,188 Vol.
82%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ
$152,780 Vol.
8%
レナン・サントス
$1,096,972 Vol.
8%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
$131,616 Vol.
1%
ロナルド・カイアド
$344,820 Vol.
1%
ロメウ・ゼマ
$296,827 Vol.
<1%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
$690,423 Vol.
<1%
ジャイール・ボルソナロ
$127,176 Vol.
<1%
カミロ・サンタナ
$101,069 Vol.
<1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
$99,628 Vol.
<1%
アルド・ヘベロ
$60,308 Vol.
<1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
$195,493 Vol.
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
$671,126 Vol.
<1%
ジェラウド・アルキミン
$152,486 Vol.
<1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
$69,046 Vol.
<1%
エルデル・バルバリョ
$20,960 Vol.
<1%
テレーザ・クリスティナ
$35,463 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Quaest, Ideia, and Nexus shows President Lula leading with 39-43% ahead of the October 4 first round, positioning Flávio Bolsonaro as the clear second at 30-37% while Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and others remain in single digits. This gap stems from the Liberal Party's July convention nominating Flávio as the standard-bearer for the right after Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement, consolidating conservative support despite earlier audio leaks tied to the Banco Master scandal that temporarily widened Lula's advantage. Fragmented alternatives, including Renan Santos's Mission Party nomination and Michelle Bolsonaro's reconciled role, limit challenges to Flávio's position. Lula's confirmation of Geraldo Alckmin as running mate and stable approval further reinforce expectations of a first-round lead for the incumbent, leaving second place as the primary contest among opposition figures entering the campaign period.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
音量
$4,484,380終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Quaest, Ideia, and Nexus shows President Lula leading with 39-43% ahead of the October 4 first round, positioning Flávio Bolsonaro as the clear second at 30-37% while Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and others remain in single digits. This gap stems from the Liberal Party's July convention nominating Flávio as the standard-bearer for the right after Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement, consolidating conservative support despite earlier audio leaks tied to the Banco Master scandal that temporarily widened Lula's advantage. Fragmented alternatives, including Renan Santos's Mission Party nomination and Michelle Bolsonaro's reconciled role, limit challenges to Flávio's position. Lula's confirmation of Geraldo Alckmin as running mate and stable approval further reinforce expectations of a first-round lead for the incumbent, leaving second place as the primary contest among opposition figures entering the campaign period.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$4,484,380終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling from Quaest, Ideia, and Nexus shows President Lula leading with 39-43% ahead of the October 4 first round, positioning Flávio Bolsonaro as the clear second at 30-37% while Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and others remain in single digits. This gap stems from the Liberal Party's July convention nominating Flávio as the standard-bearer for the right after Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement, consolidating conservative support despite earlier audio leaks tied to the Banco Master scandal that temporarily widened Lula's advantage. Fragmented alternatives, including Renan Santos's Mission Party nomination and Michelle Bolsonaro's reconciled role, limit challenges to Flávio's position. Lula's confirmation of Geraldo Alckmin as running mate and stable approval further reinforce expectations of a first-round lead for the incumbent, leaving second place as the primary contest among opposition figures entering the campaign period.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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