Flávio Bolsonaro’s nomination by the Liberal Party as the primary right-wing standard-bearer has anchored trader consensus around his second-place finish in the October 2026 first round. Recent polls consistently place him behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva but well ahead of other contenders, including newly nominated Mission Party candidate Renan Santos. Lula’s modest polling dip since early 2026 and Flávio’s recovery after May audio leaks tied to a banking scandal have reinforced this positioning. Market pricing reflects the structural advantage of the Bolsonaro family brand and party machinery in consolidating opposition votes, while lower probabilities for figures such as Ronaldo Caiado or Tarcísio de Freitas highlight the absence of viable alternative challengers on the right. Scheduled party conventions and ongoing economic indicators remain the next near-term catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 79%
レナン・サントス 9.0%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 8.8%
カミロ・サンタナ 1.2%
$4,378,086 Vol.
$4,378,086 Vol.
2026/10/04
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
79%
レナン・サントス
9%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ
9%
カミロ・サンタナ
1%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
1%
ロナルド・カイアド
1%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
1%
ジャイール・ボルソナロ
<1%
ロメウ・ゼマ
<1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
<1%
アルド・ヘベロ
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
<1%
ジェラウド・アルキミン
<1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
<1%
エルデル・バルバリョ
<1%
テレーザ・クリスティナ
<1%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 79%
レナン・サントス 9.0%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 8.8%
カミロ・サンタナ 1.2%
$4,378,086 Vol.
$4,378,086 Vol.
2026/10/04
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
$215,560 Vol.
79%
レナン・サントス
$1,088,187 Vol.
9%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ
$142,782 Vol.
9%
カミロ・サンタナ
$96,157 Vol.
1%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
$686,696 Vol.
1%
ロナルド・カイアド
$340,811 Vol.
1%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
$120,456 Vol.
1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
$190,261 Vol.
1%
ジャイール・ボルソナロ
$122,419 Vol.
<1%
ロメウ・ゼマ
$290,881 Vol.
<1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
$95,334 Vol.
<1%
アルド・ヘベロ
$55,913 Vol.
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
$663,226 Vol.
<1%
ジェラウド・アルキミン
$148,101 Vol.
<1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
$64,933 Vol.
<1%
エルデル・バルバリョ
$20,960 Vol.
<1%
テレーザ・クリスティナ
$35,410 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro’s nomination by the Liberal Party as the primary right-wing standard-bearer has anchored trader consensus around his second-place finish in the October 2026 first round. Recent polls consistently place him behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva but well ahead of other contenders, including newly nominated Mission Party candidate Renan Santos. Lula’s modest polling dip since early 2026 and Flávio’s recovery after May audio leaks tied to a banking scandal have reinforced this positioning. Market pricing reflects the structural advantage of the Bolsonaro family brand and party machinery in consolidating opposition votes, while lower probabilities for figures such as Ronaldo Caiado or Tarcísio de Freitas highlight the absence of viable alternative challengers on the right. Scheduled party conventions and ongoing economic indicators remain the next near-term catalysts.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
音量
$4,378,086終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro’s nomination by the Liberal Party as the primary right-wing standard-bearer has anchored trader consensus around his second-place finish in the October 2026 first round. Recent polls consistently place him behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva but well ahead of other contenders, including newly nominated Mission Party candidate Renan Santos. Lula’s modest polling dip since early 2026 and Flávio’s recovery after May audio leaks tied to a banking scandal have reinforced this positioning. Market pricing reflects the structural advantage of the Bolsonaro family brand and party machinery in consolidating opposition votes, while lower probabilities for figures such as Ronaldo Caiado or Tarcísio de Freitas highlight the absence of viable alternative challengers on the right. Scheduled party conventions and ongoing economic indicators remain the next near-term catalysts.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$4,378,086終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro’s nomination by the Liberal Party as the primary right-wing standard-bearer has anchored trader consensus around his second-place finish in the October 2026 first round. Recent polls consistently place him behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva but well ahead of other contenders, including newly nominated Mission Party candidate Renan Santos. Lula’s modest polling dip since early 2026 and Flávio’s recovery after May audio leaks tied to a banking scandal have reinforced this positioning. Market pricing reflects the structural advantage of the Bolsonaro family brand and party machinery in consolidating opposition votes, while lower probabilities for figures such as Ronaldo Caiado or Tarcísio de Freitas highlight the absence of viable alternative challengers on the right. Scheduled party conventions and ongoing economic indicators remain the next near-term catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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