**Flávio Bolsonaro maintains an overwhelming lead in trader pricing for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflecting consistent polling where he trails only incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva while outpacing other opposition figures.** Recent August surveys place Lula in the high 30s to mid-40s and Flávio in the upper 20s to mid-30s, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remaining in low single digits. Flávio secured the Liberal Party nomination and his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement as the primary standard-bearer for the right, despite earlier scandals and family tensions that later eased. Renan Santos has gained modest traction among younger voters as an anti-establishment alternative, yet his support has not approached the levels needed to challenge Flávio’s position. The two-round system and fragmented field reinforce the market’s view that Flávio is the clear runner-up absent a major late consolidation behind another candidate.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 81%
レナン・サントス 8.6%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 7.6%
ロナルド・カイアド 1.3%
$4,509,453 Vol.
$4,509,453 Vol.
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
81%
レナン・サントス
9%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ
8%
ロナルド・カイアド
1%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
1%
ロメウ・ゼマ
<1%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
<1%
ジャイール・ボルソナロ
<1%
カミロ・サンタナ
<1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
<1%
アルド・ヘベロ
<1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
<1%
ジェラウド・アルキミン
<1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
<1%
エルデル・バルバリョ
<1%
テレーザ・クリスティナ
<1%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 81%
レナン・サントス 8.6%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 7.6%
ロナルド・カイアド 1.3%
$4,509,453 Vol.
$4,509,453 Vol.
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
81%
レナン・サントス
9%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ
8%
ロナルド・カイアド
1%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
1%
ロメウ・ゼマ
<1%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
<1%
ジャイール・ボルソナロ
<1%
カミロ・サンタナ
<1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
<1%
アルド・ヘベロ
<1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
<1%
ジェラウド・アルキミン
<1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
<1%
エルデル・バルバリョ
<1%
テレーザ・クリスティナ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Flávio Bolsonaro maintains an overwhelming lead in trader pricing for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflecting consistent polling where he trails only incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva while outpacing other opposition figures.** Recent August surveys place Lula in the high 30s to mid-40s and Flávio in the upper 20s to mid-30s, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remaining in low single digits. Flávio secured the Liberal Party nomination and his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement as the primary standard-bearer for the right, despite earlier scandals and family tensions that later eased. Renan Santos has gained modest traction among younger voters as an anti-establishment alternative, yet his support has not approached the levels needed to challenge Flávio’s position. The two-round system and fragmented field reinforce the market’s view that Flávio is the clear runner-up absent a major late consolidation behind another candidate.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問