Traders assign Flávio Bolsonaro an overwhelming 79.5% implied probability of finishing second in Brazil’s first-round presidential vote, reflecting sustained right-wing voter consolidation around the Bolsonaro family network ahead of the 2026 contest. Lula da Silva and other left-leaning figures trail far behind for that slot, while minor right-of-center names remain fragmented. With roughly fifteen months until the October ballot, positioning has stabilized around established party structures and regional strongholds rather than new polling surges. No major legislative votes, candidate announcements, or court rulings in the past thirty days have altered the field, leaving the current distribution driven by long-term coalition patterns and historical turnout among conservative bases. Scheduled events such as party conventions later this year could still shift second-place dynamics if alliances realign.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 80%
レナン・サントス 8.7%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 7.7%
カミロ・サンタナ 1.2%
$4,379,714 Vol.
$4,379,714 Vol.
2026/10/04
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
80%
レナン・サントス
9%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ
8%
カミロ・サンタナ
1%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
1%
ロナルド・カイアド
1%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
1%
ジャイール・ボルソナロ
<1%
ロメウ・ゼマ
<1%
テレーザ・クリスティナ
<1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
<1%
アルド・ヘベロ
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
<1%
ジェラウド・アルキミン
<1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
<1%
エルデル・バルバリョ
<1%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 80%
レナン・サントス 8.7%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 7.7%
カミロ・サンタナ 1.2%
$4,379,714 Vol.
$4,379,714 Vol.
2026/10/04
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
$216,475 Vol.
80%
レナン・サントス
$1,088,328 Vol.
9%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ
$143,179 Vol.
8%
カミロ・サンタナ
$96,158 Vol.
1%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
$686,696 Vol.
1%
ロナルド・カイアド
$340,811 Vol.
1%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
$120,458 Vol.
1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
$190,261 Vol.
1%
ジャイール・ボルソナロ
$122,419 Vol.
<1%
ロメウ・ゼマ
$290,957 Vol.
<1%
テレーザ・クリスティナ
$35,421 Vol.
<1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
$95,334 Vol.
<1%
アルド・ヘベロ
$55,913 Vol.
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
$663,226 Vol.
<1%
ジェラウド・アルキミン
$148,185 Vol.
<1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
$64,933 Vol.
<1%
エルデル・バルバリョ
$20,960 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Traders assign Flávio Bolsonaro an overwhelming 79.5% implied probability of finishing second in Brazil’s first-round presidential vote, reflecting sustained right-wing voter consolidation around the Bolsonaro family network ahead of the 2026 contest. Lula da Silva and other left-leaning figures trail far behind for that slot, while minor right-of-center names remain fragmented. With roughly fifteen months until the October ballot, positioning has stabilized around established party structures and regional strongholds rather than new polling surges. No major legislative votes, candidate announcements, or court rulings in the past thirty days have altered the field, leaving the current distribution driven by long-term coalition patterns and historical turnout among conservative bases. Scheduled events such as party conventions later this year could still shift second-place dynamics if alliances realign.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
音量
$4,379,714終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Traders assign Flávio Bolsonaro an overwhelming 79.5% implied probability of finishing second in Brazil’s first-round presidential vote, reflecting sustained right-wing voter consolidation around the Bolsonaro family network ahead of the 2026 contest. Lula da Silva and other left-leaning figures trail far behind for that slot, while minor right-of-center names remain fragmented. With roughly fifteen months until the October ballot, positioning has stabilized around established party structures and regional strongholds rather than new polling surges. No major legislative votes, candidate announcements, or court rulings in the past thirty days have altered the field, leaving the current distribution driven by long-term coalition patterns and historical turnout among conservative bases. Scheduled events such as party conventions later this year could still shift second-place dynamics if alliances realign.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$4,379,714終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign Flávio Bolsonaro an overwhelming 79.5% implied probability of finishing second in Brazil’s first-round presidential vote, reflecting sustained right-wing voter consolidation around the Bolsonaro family network ahead of the 2026 contest. Lula da Silva and other left-leaning figures trail far behind for that slot, while minor right-of-center names remain fragmented. With roughly fifteen months until the October ballot, positioning has stabilized around established party structures and regional strongholds rather than new polling surges. No major legislative votes, candidate announcements, or court rulings in the past thirty days have altered the field, leaving the current distribution driven by long-term coalition patterns and historical turnout among conservative bases. Scheduled events such as party conventions later this year could still shift second-place dynamics if alliances realign.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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