Raquel Lyra (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking reelection, holds the leading position in the Pernambuco gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, with recent Datafolha polling placing her at 47% against João Campos (PSB) at 42%—a technical tie within the margin of error. Traders price Lyra at 68.5% implied probability, reflecting her consistent numerical edge in surveys, 65% approval rating, and incumbency advantages in a state where first-round victories remain possible if support consolidates. Campos trails at 31.5%, supported by his PSB base and urban strength but facing headwinds from negative campaigning and lower favorability. Minor candidates including Ivan Moraes register negligible support below 1%, limiting their impact on outcomes. Scheduled debates and ongoing coalition negotiations could still influence turnout and second-round scenarios.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ラケル・リラ 58%
ジョアン・カンポス 38%
イヴァン・モラエス <1%
$48,767 Vol.
$48,767 Vol.
2026/10/04
ラケル・リラ
58%
ジョアン・カンポス
38%
イヴァン・モラエス
<1%
ラケル・リラ 58%
ジョアン・カンポス 38%
イヴァン・モラエス <1%
$48,767 Vol.
$48,767 Vol.
2026/10/04
ラケル・リラ
$22,763 Vol.
58%
ジョアン・カンポス
$20,663 Vol.
38%
イヴァン・モラエス
$5,341 Vol.
<1%
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Raquel Lyra (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking reelection, holds the leading position in the Pernambuco gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, with recent Datafolha polling placing her at 47% against João Campos (PSB) at 42%—a technical tie within the margin of error. Traders price Lyra at 68.5% implied probability, reflecting her consistent numerical edge in surveys, 65% approval rating, and incumbency advantages in a state where first-round victories remain possible if support consolidates. Campos trails at 31.5%, supported by his PSB base and urban strength but facing headwinds from negative campaigning and lower favorability. Minor candidates including Ivan Moraes register negligible support below 1%, limiting their impact on outcomes. Scheduled debates and ongoing coalition negotiations could still influence turnout and second-round scenarios.
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
音量
$48,767終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Raquel Lyra (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking reelection, holds the leading position in the Pernambuco gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, with recent Datafolha polling placing her at 47% against João Campos (PSB) at 42%—a technical tie within the margin of error. Traders price Lyra at 68.5% implied probability, reflecting her consistent numerical edge in surveys, 65% approval rating, and incumbency advantages in a state where first-round victories remain possible if support consolidates. Campos trails at 31.5%, supported by his PSB base and urban strength but facing headwinds from negative campaigning and lower favorability. Minor candidates including Ivan Moraes register negligible support below 1%, limiting their impact on outcomes. Scheduled debates and ongoing coalition negotiations could still influence turnout and second-round scenarios.
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$48,767終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Raquel Lyra (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking reelection, holds the leading position in the Pernambuco gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, with recent Datafolha polling placing her at 47% against João Campos (PSB) at 42%—a technical tie within the margin of error. Traders price Lyra at 68.5% implied probability, reflecting her consistent numerical edge in surveys, 65% approval rating, and incumbency advantages in a state where first-round victories remain possible if support consolidates. Campos trails at 31.5%, supported by his PSB base and urban strength but facing headwinds from negative campaigning and lower favorability. Minor candidates including Ivan Moraes register negligible support below 1%, limiting their impact on outcomes. Scheduled debates and ongoing coalition negotiations could still influence turnout and second-round scenarios.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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