Lula maintains a strong lead in first-round polling averages for Brazil’s October 4, 2026, presidential election, typically registering 38–43 percent against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 30–35 percent, with Augusto Cury rising sharply to double digits in the latest surveys. This positioning reflects Lula’s incumbency advantage within the Workers’ Party base, sustained economic messaging, and the absence of a unified right-wing challenger capable of consolidating votes behind one name. Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy for the Liberal Party has stabilized but remains hampered by his father’s legal restrictions and limited centrist alliances, keeping him well behind in projected first-round totals. Minor candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos poll in the low single digits and show little recent momentum. Traders price Lula as the clear first-round leader at 86.5 percent implied probability, consistent with every major pollster’s ordering and the structural difficulty any rival faces in overtaking him before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ルラ 87%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 9%
獣医ウィルソン・グラッシ <1%
ヘルツ・ディアス <1%
新規
新規
2026/10/04
ルラ
87%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
9%
獣医ウィルソン・グラッシ
1%
ヘルツ・ディアス
1%
サマラ
1%
ルイ・コスタ・ピメンタ
1%
作家アウグスト・クーリ
1%
レナン・サントス
1%
ロナウド・カイアド
1%
ゼマ
1%
パブロ・マルサル
1%
クラリアナ・バラオ
<1%
エジミルソン・コスタ
<1%
ルラ 87%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 9%
獣医ウィルソン・グラッシ <1%
ヘルツ・ディアス <1%
新規
新規
2026/10/04
ルラ
$2,814 Vol.
87%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
$1,139 Vol.
9%
獣医ウィルソン・グラッシ
$316 Vol.
1%
ヘルツ・ディアス
$296 Vol.
1%
サマラ
$296 Vol.
1%
ルイ・コスタ・ピメンタ
$477 Vol.
1%
作家アウグスト・クーリ
$490 Vol.
1%
レナン・サントス
$366 Vol.
1%
ロナウド・カイアド
$366 Vol.
1%
ゼマ
$486 Vol.
1%
パブロ・マルサル
$316 Vol.
1%
クラリアナ・バラオ
$288 Vol.
<1%
エジミルソン・コスタ
$259 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a strong lead in first-round polling averages for Brazil’s October 4, 2026, presidential election, typically registering 38–43 percent against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 30–35 percent, with Augusto Cury rising sharply to double digits in the latest surveys. This positioning reflects Lula’s incumbency advantage within the Workers’ Party base, sustained economic messaging, and the absence of a unified right-wing challenger capable of consolidating votes behind one name. Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy for the Liberal Party has stabilized but remains hampered by his father’s legal restrictions and limited centrist alliances, keeping him well behind in projected first-round totals. Minor candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos poll in the low single digits and show little recent momentum. Traders price Lula as the clear first-round leader at 86.5 percent implied probability, consistent with every major pollster’s ordering and the structural difficulty any rival faces in overtaking him before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET
音量
$7,909終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a strong lead in first-round polling averages for Brazil’s October 4, 2026, presidential election, typically registering 38–43 percent against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 30–35 percent, with Augusto Cury rising sharply to double digits in the latest surveys. This positioning reflects Lula’s incumbency advantage within the Workers’ Party base, sustained economic messaging, and the absence of a unified right-wing challenger capable of consolidating votes behind one name. Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy for the Liberal Party has stabilized but remains hampered by his father’s legal restrictions and limited centrist alliances, keeping him well behind in projected first-round totals. Minor candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos poll in the low single digits and show little recent momentum. Traders price Lula as the clear first-round leader at 86.5 percent implied probability, consistent with every major pollster’s ordering and the structural difficulty any rival faces in overtaking him before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$7,909終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ETLula maintains a strong lead in first-round polling averages for Brazil’s October 4, 2026, presidential election, typically registering 38–43 percent against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 30–35 percent, with Augusto Cury rising sharply to double digits in the latest surveys. This positioning reflects Lula’s incumbency advantage within the Workers’ Party base, sustained economic messaging, and the absence of a unified right-wing challenger capable of consolidating votes behind one name. Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy for the Liberal Party has stabilized but remains hampered by his father’s legal restrictions and limited centrist alliances, keeping him well behind in projected first-round totals. Minor candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos poll in the low single digits and show little recent momentum. Traders price Lula as the clear first-round leader at 86.5 percent implied probability, consistent with every major pollster’s ordering and the structural difficulty any rival faces in overtaking him before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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