The Espírito Santo Senate race features a clear polling leader in former governor Renato Casagrande, leaving a fragmented contest for the second seat among multiple incumbents and party figures including Fabiano Contarato, Marcos do Val, Sergio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, Maguinha Malta, and Evair de Melo. Recent July 2026 surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data show Casagrande ahead at 24-32% while the remaining candidates cluster in the single digits to low teens, with high undecided shares sustaining volatility. This spread of viable contenders from distinct parties, combined with limited differentiation on key state issues, keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered near even odds for second place. Late-cycle endorsements, coalition alignments, or turnout shifts among specific voting blocs could still reorder the field before October balloting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日レナト・カサグランデ 44%
ロドニー・ミランダ 44%
セルジオ・メネゲリ 44%
ファビアン教授 44%
新規
新規
2026/10/04
レナト・カサグランデ
44%
ロドニー・ミランダ
44%
セルジオ・メネゲリ
44%
ファビアン教授
44%
ローズ・デ・フレイタス
43%
カレガリ
42%
レオナルド・モンジャルジン
42%
エヴァイル・デ・メロ
41%
ファビアーノ・コンタラート
41%
マギーニャ・マルタ
41%
マルコス・ド・ヴァル
41%
レナト・カサグランデ 44%
ロドニー・ミランダ 44%
セルジオ・メネゲリ 44%
ファビアン教授 44%
新規
新規
2026/10/04
レナト・カサグランデ
$0 Vol.
44%
ロドニー・ミランダ
$0 Vol.
44%
セルジオ・メネゲリ
$0 Vol.
44%
ファビアン教授
$0 Vol.
44%
ローズ・デ・フレイタス
$0 Vol.
43%
カレガリ
$0 Vol.
42%
レオナルド・モンジャルジン
$0 Vol.
42%
エヴァイル・デ・メロ
$0 Vol.
41%
ファビアーノ・コンタラート
$0 Vol.
41%
マギーニャ・マルタ
$0 Vol.
41%
マルコス・ド・ヴァル
$0 Vol.
41%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Espírito Santo Senate race features a clear polling leader in former governor Renato Casagrande, leaving a fragmented contest for the second seat among multiple incumbents and party figures including Fabiano Contarato, Marcos do Val, Sergio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, Maguinha Malta, and Evair de Melo. Recent July 2026 surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data show Casagrande ahead at 24-32% while the remaining candidates cluster in the single digits to low teens, with high undecided shares sustaining volatility. This spread of viable contenders from distinct parties, combined with limited differentiation on key state issues, keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered near even odds for second place. Late-cycle endorsements, coalition alignments, or turnout shifts among specific voting blocs could still reorder the field before October balloting.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Espírito Santo Senate race features a clear polling leader in former governor Renato Casagrande, leaving a fragmented contest for the second seat among multiple incumbents and party figures including Fabiano Contarato, Marcos do Val, Sergio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, Maguinha Malta, and Evair de Melo. Recent July 2026 surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data show Casagrande ahead at 24-32% while the remaining candidates cluster in the single digits to low teens, with high undecided shares sustaining volatility. This spread of viable contenders from distinct parties, combined with limited differentiation on key state issues, keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered near even odds for second place. Late-cycle endorsements, coalition alignments, or turnout shifts among specific voting blocs could still reorder the field before October balloting.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Espírito Santo Senate race features a clear polling leader in former governor Renato Casagrande, leaving a fragmented contest for the second seat among multiple incumbents and party figures including Fabiano Contarato, Marcos do Val, Sergio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, Maguinha Malta, and Evair de Melo. Recent July 2026 surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data show Casagrande ahead at 24-32% while the remaining candidates cluster in the single digits to low teens, with high undecided shares sustaining volatility. This spread of viable contenders from distinct parties, combined with limited differentiation on key state issues, keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered near even odds for second place. Late-cycle endorsements, coalition alignments, or turnout shifts among specific voting blocs could still reorder the field before October balloting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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