The São Paulo Senate race for two seats remains highly competitive, with recent polls from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and Genial showing Marina Silva, Simone Tebet, Márcio França, and Guilherme Derrite clustered near the top amid a field of over a dozen registered candidates. Vote fragmentation on the right—among Derrite (PP), André do Prado (PL), Ricardo Salles (Novo), and others—combined with center-left options keeps second-place probabilities tightly bunched, as no single contender has consolidated enough support to pull ahead decisively. Official candidacies filed in July and August, alongside ongoing debates over security policy and economic priorities, have sustained this uncertainty without major shifts in the past month. Events that could create separation include further candidate withdrawals, targeted endorsements from state or national figures ahead of the October 4 vote, or polling surges tied to specific campaign events in key regions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日サレス 43%
ウェラー・ゴンサウヴェス 42%
シモーネ・テベチ 31%
マリナ・シルバ 29%
新規
新規
2026/10/04
サレス
43%
ウェラー・ゴンサウヴェス
42%
シモーネ・テベチ
31%
マリナ・シルバ
29%
ジェラウド・ルフィーノ
26%
マイラ・デ・ソウザ
26%
ペッター・マース
23%
エドネルソン・セザレッティ
21%
ウィリアム・テイシェイラ
19%
マルシオ・アルヴェス
19%
エリアナ・フェレイラ博士
18%
アンドレ・ド・プラド
17%
ギリェルメ・デリッチ
21%
ソニーニャ・フランシーニ
40%
サレス 43%
ウェラー・ゴンサウヴェス 42%
シモーネ・テベチ 31%
マリナ・シルバ 29%
新規
新規
2026/10/04
サレス
$38 Vol.
43%
ウェラー・ゴンサウヴェス
$38 Vol.
42%
シモーネ・テベチ
$38 Vol.
31%
マリナ・シルバ
$38 Vol.
29%
ジェラウド・ルフィーノ
$38 Vol.
26%
マイラ・デ・ソウザ
$38 Vol.
26%
ペッター・マース
$38 Vol.
23%
エドネルソン・セザレッティ
$60 Vol.
21%
ウィリアム・テイシェイラ
$78 Vol.
19%
マルシオ・アルヴェス
$58 Vol.
19%
エリアナ・フェレイラ博士
$38 Vol.
18%
アンドレ・ド・プラド
$38 Vol.
17%
ギリェルメ・デリッチ
$59 Vol.
21%
ソニーニャ・フランシーニ
$59 Vol.
40%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The São Paulo Senate race for two seats remains highly competitive, with recent polls from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and Genial showing Marina Silva, Simone Tebet, Márcio França, and Guilherme Derrite clustered near the top amid a field of over a dozen registered candidates. Vote fragmentation on the right—among Derrite (PP), André do Prado (PL), Ricardo Salles (Novo), and others—combined with center-left options keeps second-place probabilities tightly bunched, as no single contender has consolidated enough support to pull ahead decisively. Official candidacies filed in July and August, alongside ongoing debates over security policy and economic priorities, have sustained this uncertainty without major shifts in the past month. Events that could create separation include further candidate withdrawals, targeted endorsements from state or national figures ahead of the October 4 vote, or polling surges tied to specific campaign events in key regions.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
音量
$658終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The São Paulo Senate race for two seats remains highly competitive, with recent polls from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and Genial showing Marina Silva, Simone Tebet, Márcio França, and Guilherme Derrite clustered near the top amid a field of over a dozen registered candidates. Vote fragmentation on the right—among Derrite (PP), André do Prado (PL), Ricardo Salles (Novo), and others—combined with center-left options keeps second-place probabilities tightly bunched, as no single contender has consolidated enough support to pull ahead decisively. Official candidacies filed in July and August, alongside ongoing debates over security policy and economic priorities, have sustained this uncertainty without major shifts in the past month. Events that could create separation include further candidate withdrawals, targeted endorsements from state or national figures ahead of the October 4 vote, or polling surges tied to specific campaign events in key regions.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$658終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo Senate race for two seats remains highly competitive, with recent polls from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and Genial showing Marina Silva, Simone Tebet, Márcio França, and Guilherme Derrite clustered near the top amid a field of over a dozen registered candidates. Vote fragmentation on the right—among Derrite (PP), André do Prado (PL), Ricardo Salles (Novo), and others—combined with center-left options keeps second-place probabilities tightly bunched, as no single contender has consolidated enough support to pull ahead decisively. Official candidacies filed in July and August, alongside ongoing debates over security policy and economic priorities, have sustained this uncertainty without major shifts in the past month. Events that could create separation include further candidate withdrawals, targeted endorsements from state or national figures ahead of the October 4 vote, or polling surges tied to specific campaign events in key regions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問