The tight race for Bahia governor reflects a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and leading challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round. Rodrigues maintains approval ratings near 56-61 percent with credit for education and infrastructure gains, yet faces criticism over crime and unmet promises that bolster ACM Neto's appeal among independents and right-leaning voters. Recent Genial/Quaest and other mid-2026 surveys show a technical tie or narrow swings, consistent with national shifts including União Brasil's break from the Lula coalition and ACM Neto's alignment with the broader right-wing bloc. Trader consensus around 45.5 percent for each captures this balance, with separation likely hinging on turnout among core PT supporters, late campaign alliances, and any shifts in economic or security perceptions before the runoff threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Jerônimo Rodrigues 46%
ACM Neto 46%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$35,719 Vol.
$35,719 Vol.
2026/10/04
Jerônimo Rodrigues
46%
ACM Neto
46%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 46%
ACM Neto 46%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$35,719 Vol.
$35,719 Vol.
2026/10/04
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$10,281 Vol.
46%
ACM Neto
$12,132 Vol.
46%
José Carlos Aleluia
$3,671 Vol.
<1%
Kleber Rosa
$3,451 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$2,077 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$2,173 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,935 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight race for Bahia governor reflects a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and leading challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round. Rodrigues maintains approval ratings near 56-61 percent with credit for education and infrastructure gains, yet faces criticism over crime and unmet promises that bolster ACM Neto's appeal among independents and right-leaning voters. Recent Genial/Quaest and other mid-2026 surveys show a technical tie or narrow swings, consistent with national shifts including União Brasil's break from the Lula coalition and ACM Neto's alignment with the broader right-wing bloc. Trader consensus around 45.5 percent for each captures this balance, with separation likely hinging on turnout among core PT supporters, late campaign alliances, and any shifts in economic or security perceptions before the runoff threshold.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
音量
$35,719終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight race for Bahia governor reflects a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and leading challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round. Rodrigues maintains approval ratings near 56-61 percent with credit for education and infrastructure gains, yet faces criticism over crime and unmet promises that bolster ACM Neto's appeal among independents and right-leaning voters. Recent Genial/Quaest and other mid-2026 surveys show a technical tie or narrow swings, consistent with national shifts including União Brasil's break from the Lula coalition and ACM Neto's alignment with the broader right-wing bloc. Trader consensus around 45.5 percent for each captures this balance, with separation likely hinging on turnout among core PT supporters, late campaign alliances, and any shifts in economic or security perceptions before the runoff threshold.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$35,719終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight race for Bahia governor reflects a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and leading challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round. Rodrigues maintains approval ratings near 56-61 percent with credit for education and infrastructure gains, yet faces criticism over crime and unmet promises that bolster ACM Neto's appeal among independents and right-leaning voters. Recent Genial/Quaest and other mid-2026 surveys show a technical tie or narrow swings, consistent with national shifts including União Brasil's break from the Lula coalition and ACM Neto's alignment with the broader right-wing bloc. Trader consensus around 45.5 percent for each captures this balance, with separation likely hinging on turnout among core PT supporters, late campaign alliances, and any shifts in economic or security perceptions before the runoff threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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