Trader consensus prices CDU at 53% implied probability to secure the most seats as winner in Berlin's September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election under proportional representation with a 5% threshold, reflecting Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's incumbency in the CDU-SPD coalition and its consistent polling lead. Recent INSA survey (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21% ahead of SPD and AfD at 17% each, Grüne and Linke at 15%, with FDP at 3% and BSW at 4%, stable from prior polls amid a fragmented field favoring the incumbent. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, though market odds notably exceed polling aggregators' vote shares for CDU while discounting SPD and AfD.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日CDU 53%
グリューネ 16.0%
リンク 14%
AfD 9.3%
$2,580,085 Vol.
$2,580,085 Vol.
2026/09/20
CDU
53%
グリューネ
16%
リンク
14%
AfD
9%
SPD
8%
BSW
<1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 53%
グリューネ 16.0%
リンク 14%
AfD 9.3%
$2,580,085 Vol.
$2,580,085 Vol.
2026/09/20
CDU
$15,965 Vol.
53%
グリューネ
$28,653 Vol.
16%
リンク
$12,783 Vol.
14%
AfD
$2,188,814 Vol.
9%
SPD
$288,644 Vol.
8%
BSW
$27,130 Vol.
<1%
FDP
$10,722 Vol.
<1%
FW
$7,374 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus prices CDU at 53% implied probability to secure the most seats as winner in Berlin's September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election under proportional representation with a 5% threshold, reflecting Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's incumbency in the CDU-SPD coalition and its consistent polling lead. Recent INSA survey (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21% ahead of SPD and AfD at 17% each, Grüne and Linke at 15%, with FDP at 3% and BSW at 4%, stable from prior polls amid a fragmented field favoring the incumbent. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, though market odds notably exceed polling aggregators' vote shares for CDU while discounting SPD and AfD.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
マーケット開始日： Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
音量
$2,580,085終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus prices CDU at 53% implied probability to secure the most seats as winner in Berlin's September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election under proportional representation with a 5% threshold, reflecting Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's incumbency in the CDU-SPD coalition and its consistent polling lead. Recent INSA survey (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21% ahead of SPD and AfD at 17% each, Grüne and Linke at 15%, with FDP at 3% and BSW at 4%, stable from prior polls amid a fragmented field favoring the incumbent. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, though market odds notably exceed polling aggregators' vote shares for CDU while discounting SPD and AfD.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
音量
$2,580,085終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices CDU at 53% implied probability to secure the most seats as winner in Berlin's September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election under proportional representation with a 5% threshold, reflecting Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's incumbency in the CDU-SPD coalition and its consistent polling lead. Recent INSA survey (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21% ahead of SPD and AfD at 17% each, Grüne and Linke at 15%, with FDP at 3% and BSW at 4%, stable from prior polls amid a fragmented field favoring the incumbent. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, though market odds notably exceed polling aggregators' vote shares for CDU while discounting SPD and AfD.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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