Trader consensus favors CDU at 53% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, 2026, driven by its incumbency under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and consistent poll leads around 21-22% in the latest Sonntagsfragen. The April 7-14 INSA survey shows CDU at 21%, ahead of SPD and AfD at 17% each, Grüne and Die Linke at 15%, with FDP at 3% and BSW at 4% below the 5% threshold—reinforcing CDU's edge in proportional representation where the top vote-getter claims the plurality. No major shifts occurred in the past 30 days amid stable CDU-SPD grand coalition governance, though national CDU momentum under Chancellor Merz bolsters sentiment ahead of campaign intensification.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日CDU 53%
グリューネ 15.7%
リンク 14%
AfD 9.7%
$2,579,525 Vol.
$2,579,525 Vol.
2026/09/20
CDU
53%
グリューネ
16%
リンク
14%
AfD
10%
SPD
8%
BSW
<1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 53%
グリューネ 15.7%
リンク 14%
AfD 9.7%
$2,579,525 Vol.
$2,579,525 Vol.
2026/09/20
CDU
$15,937 Vol.
53%
グリューネ
$28,553 Vol.
16%
リンク
$12,724 Vol.
14%
AfD
$2,188,645 Vol.
10%
SPD
$288,618 Vol.
8%
BSW
$27,004 Vol.
<1%
FDP
$10,696 Vol.
<1%
FW
$7,348 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU at 53% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, 2026, driven by its incumbency under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and consistent poll leads around 21-22% in the latest Sonntagsfragen. The April 7-14 INSA survey shows CDU at 21%, ahead of SPD and AfD at 17% each, Grüne and Die Linke at 15%, with FDP at 3% and BSW at 4% below the 5% threshold—reinforcing CDU's edge in proportional representation where the top vote-getter claims the plurality. No major shifts occurred in the past 30 days amid stable CDU-SPD grand coalition governance, though national CDU momentum under Chancellor Merz bolsters sentiment ahead of campaign intensification.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
マーケット開始日： Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
音量
$2,579,525終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU at 53% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, 2026, driven by its incumbency under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and consistent poll leads around 21-22% in the latest Sonntagsfragen. The April 7-14 INSA survey shows CDU at 21%, ahead of SPD and AfD at 17% each, Grüne and Die Linke at 15%, with FDP at 3% and BSW at 4% below the 5% threshold—reinforcing CDU's edge in proportional representation where the top vote-getter claims the plurality. No major shifts occurred in the past 30 days amid stable CDU-SPD grand coalition governance, though national CDU momentum under Chancellor Merz bolsters sentiment ahead of campaign intensification.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
音量
$2,579,525終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors CDU at 53% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, 2026, driven by its incumbency under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and consistent poll leads around 21-22% in the latest Sonntagsfragen. The April 7-14 INSA survey shows CDU at 21%, ahead of SPD and AfD at 17% each, Grüne and Die Linke at 15%, with FDP at 3% and BSW at 4% below the 5% threshold—reinforcing CDU's edge in proportional representation where the top vote-getter claims the plurality. No major shifts occurred in the past 30 days amid stable CDU-SPD grand coalition governance, though national CDU momentum under Chancellor Merz bolsters sentiment ahead of campaign intensification.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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