Deep divisions among French left-wing parties have driven traders to assign a 92% implied probability that the 2026 United Left primary will be canceled. La France Insoumise and Place Publique have declined participation outright, while the Socialist Party remains split over alliances and strategy ahead of the 2027 presidential election. The proposed October 11 vote involves only narrower groups such as Les Écologistes, L'Après, Debout!, and Génération.s, limiting its legitimacy as a unifying mechanism. Persistent infighting following recent municipal results has further eroded momentum for a joint process. A reversal could occur if holdout parties reverse course or if the remaining organizers formally commit to proceeding despite the gaps.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日中止 92.2%
François Ruffin 1.2%
Marine Tondelier <1%
Clémentine Autain <1%
$202,736 Vol.
$202,736 Vol.
2026/10/11
中止
92%
François Ruffin
1%
Marine Tondelier
1%
Clémentine Autain
1%
Lydie Massard
<1%
ベンジャミン・リュカ＝ランディ
<1%
中止 92.2%
François Ruffin 1.2%
Marine Tondelier <1%
Clémentine Autain <1%
$202,736 Vol.
$202,736 Vol.
2026/10/11
中止
$67,262 Vol.
92%
François Ruffin
$31,112 Vol.
1%
Marine Tondelier
$49,561 Vol.
1%
Clémentine Autain
$7,357 Vol.
1%
Lydie Massard
$43,228 Vol.
<1%
ベンジャミン・リュカ＝ランディ
$4,216 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Deep divisions among French left-wing parties have driven traders to assign a 92% implied probability that the 2026 United Left primary will be canceled. La France Insoumise and Place Publique have declined participation outright, while the Socialist Party remains split over alliances and strategy ahead of the 2027 presidential election. The proposed October 11 vote involves only narrower groups such as Les Écologistes, L'Après, Debout!, and Génération.s, limiting its legitimacy as a unifying mechanism. Persistent infighting following recent municipal results has further eroded momentum for a joint process. A reversal could occur if holdout parties reverse course or if the remaining organizers formally commit to proceeding despite the gaps.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
マーケット開始日： May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
音量
$202,736終了日
2026/10/11マーケット開始日
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Deep divisions among French left-wing parties have driven traders to assign a 92% implied probability that the 2026 United Left primary will be canceled. La France Insoumise and Place Publique have declined participation outright, while the Socialist Party remains split over alliances and strategy ahead of the 2027 presidential election. The proposed October 11 vote involves only narrower groups such as Les Écologistes, L'Après, Debout!, and Génération.s, limiting its legitimacy as a unifying mechanism. Persistent infighting following recent municipal results has further eroded momentum for a joint process. A reversal could occur if holdout parties reverse course or if the remaining organizers formally commit to proceeding despite the gaps.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$202,736終了日
2026/10/11マーケット開始日
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Deep divisions among French left-wing parties have driven traders to assign a 92% implied probability that the 2026 United Left primary will be canceled. La France Insoumise and Place Publique have declined participation outright, while the Socialist Party remains split over alliances and strategy ahead of the 2027 presidential election. The proposed October 11 vote involves only narrower groups such as Les Écologistes, L'Après, Debout!, and Génération.s, limiting its legitimacy as a unifying mechanism. Persistent infighting following recent municipal results has further eroded momentum for a joint process. A reversal could occur if holdout parties reverse course or if the remaining organizers formally commit to proceeding despite the gaps.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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