Recent August 2026 CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline increase, alongside a 0.3% core gain, has reinforced trader focus on persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target and supported the 61.5% implied probability of no change at the October FOMC. Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on returning inflation to goal has shifted market-implied odds toward a potential 25 basis point hike at 37.5%, reflecting hawkish signals amid energy-driven price pressures. The closely spaced September 15-16 meeting serves as the immediate catalyst, with labor market stability and proximity to midterms adding caution against aggressive moves. These probabilities aggregate skin-in-the-game consensus on the rate path from current 3.5%-3.75% levels.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日据え置き 62%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 38%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 1.8%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ 1.0%
$1,772,824 Vol.
$1,772,824 Vol.
2026/10/28
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
2%
据え置き
62%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
38%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
1%
据え置き 62%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 38%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 1.8%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ 1.0%
$1,772,824 Vol.
$1,772,824 Vol.
2026/10/28
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
$293,612 Vol.
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$604,940 Vol.
2%
据え置き
$299,330 Vol.
62%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$372,179 Vol.
38%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
$202,764 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August 2026 CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline increase, alongside a 0.3% core gain, has reinforced trader focus on persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target and supported the 61.5% implied probability of no change at the October FOMC. Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on returning inflation to goal has shifted market-implied odds toward a potential 25 basis point hike at 37.5%, reflecting hawkish signals amid energy-driven price pressures. The closely spaced September 15-16 meeting serves as the immediate catalyst, with labor market stability and proximity to midterms adding caution against aggressive moves. These probabilities aggregate skin-in-the-game consensus on the rate path from current 3.5%-3.75% levels.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
音量
$1,772,824終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August 2026 CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline increase, alongside a 0.3% core gain, has reinforced trader focus on persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target and supported the 61.5% implied probability of no change at the October FOMC. Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on returning inflation to goal has shifted market-implied odds toward a potential 25 basis point hike at 37.5%, reflecting hawkish signals amid energy-driven price pressures. The closely spaced September 15-16 meeting serves as the immediate catalyst, with labor market stability and proximity to midterms adding caution against aggressive moves. These probabilities aggregate skin-in-the-game consensus on the rate path from current 3.5%-3.75% levels.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$1,772,824終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent August 2026 CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline increase, alongside a 0.3% core gain, has reinforced trader focus on persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target and supported the 61.5% implied probability of no change at the October FOMC. Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on returning inflation to goal has shifted market-implied odds toward a potential 25 basis point hike at 37.5%, reflecting hawkish signals amid energy-driven price pressures. The closely spaced September 15-16 meeting serves as the immediate catalyst, with labor market stability and proximity to midterms adding caution against aggressive moves. These probabilities aggregate skin-in-the-game consensus on the rate path from current 3.5%-3.75% levels.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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