Elevated inflation readings and hawkish Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh are the main forces supporting the 61.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 2026 FOMC meeting. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with energy components driving the print amid $100-per-barrel oil, while core CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year and the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. Markets price a high likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 meeting, which would shift focus to incoming September data and any post-election signals for the subsequent decision. Treasury yields and futures reflect this path-dependent outlook, with limited odds on cuts or larger moves underscoring the data-sensitive stance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日据え置き 62%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 37%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 3.2%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ 1.0%
$1,901,476 Vol.
$1,901,476 Vol.
2026/10/28
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
3%
据え置き
62%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
37%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
1%
据え置き 62%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 37%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 3.2%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ 1.0%
$1,901,476 Vol.
$1,901,476 Vol.
2026/10/28
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
$317,005 Vol.
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$641,414 Vol.
3%
据え置き
$312,789 Vol.
62%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$408,383 Vol.
37%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
$221,884 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings and hawkish Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh are the main forces supporting the 61.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 2026 FOMC meeting. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with energy components driving the print amid $100-per-barrel oil, while core CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year and the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. Markets price a high likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 meeting, which would shift focus to incoming September data and any post-election signals for the subsequent decision. Treasury yields and futures reflect this path-dependent outlook, with limited odds on cuts or larger moves underscoring the data-sensitive stance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
音量
$1,901,476終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings and hawkish Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh are the main forces supporting the 61.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 2026 FOMC meeting. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with energy components driving the print amid $100-per-barrel oil, while core CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year and the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. Markets price a high likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 meeting, which would shift focus to incoming September data and any post-election signals for the subsequent decision. Treasury yields and futures reflect this path-dependent outlook, with limited odds on cuts or larger moves underscoring the data-sensitive stance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$1,901,476終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings and hawkish Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh are the main forces supporting the 61.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 2026 FOMC meeting. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with energy components driving the print amid $100-per-barrel oil, while core CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year and the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. Markets price a high likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 meeting, which would shift focus to incoming September data and any post-election signals for the subsequent decision. Treasury yields and futures reflect this path-dependent outlook, with limited odds on cuts or larger moves underscoring the data-sensitive stance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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