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icon for 2027年までにFRB金利はどのような打撃を受けるでしょうか？
エコノミー·ジェローム・パウエル

2027年までにFRB金利はどのような打撃を受けるでしょうか？

icon for 2027年までにFRB金利はどのような打撃を受けるでしょうか？
エコノミー·ジェローム・パウエル

2027年までにFRB金利はどのような打撃を受けるでしょうか？

$1,817,695 Vol.

2026/12/30
Polymarket

$1,817,695 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 5.5％

$54,930 Vol.

3%

↑ 5.25％

$142,537 Vol.

3%

↑ 5.0％

$19,154 Vol.

3%

↑ 4.75％

$80,602 Vol.

5%

↑ 4.5％

$39,002 Vol.

16%

↑ 4.25％

$122,958 Vol.

50%

↓ 3.25％

$81,283 Vol.

8%

↓ 3.0％

$314,222 Vol.

2%

↓ 2.75％

$363,709 Vol.

3%

↓2.5%

$222,714 Vol.

2%

↓ 2.25％

$40,693 Vol.

3%

↓ 2.0％

$18,810 Vol.

3%

↓ 1.75％

$12,314 Vol.

1%

↓ 1.5％

$28,320 Vol.

2%

↓ 1.25％

$3,778 Vol.

2%

↓ 1.0％

$2,319 Vol.

2%

↓ 0.75％

$731 Vol.

2%

↓ 0.5％

$107,192 Vol.

2%

↓ 0.25％

$132,345 Vol.

2%

↓ 0％

$21,080 Vol.

2%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The current federal funds target range stands at 3.50–3.75% with the effective rate near 3.63% as of mid-September 2026. Stronger-than-expected inflation readings, including August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and upward revisions to PCE projections, combined with resilient labor market data, have shifted market-implied odds toward at least one 25-basis-point hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting. The June SEP raised the median end-2026 rate projection to 3.8%, reflecting a hawkish tilt under Chair Warsh and removal of easing bias. Futures markets now price roughly four hikes by mid-2027, while trader consensus on related prediction markets assigns elevated probability to the range reaching 4.25% or higher before year-end versus deeper cuts. Key near-term catalysts include the September dot plot, upcoming CPI and payroll releases, and any signals on the balance sheet or policy framework review.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
音量
$1,817,695
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The current federal funds target range stands at 3.50–3.75% with the effective rate near 3.63% as of mid-September 2026. Stronger-than-expected inflation readings, including August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and upward revisions to PCE projections, combined with resilient labor market data, have shifted market-implied odds toward at least one 25-basis-point hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting. The June SEP raised the median end-2026 rate projection to 3.8%, reflecting a hawkish tilt under Chair Warsh and removal of easing bias. Futures markets now price roughly four hikes by mid-2027, while trader consensus on related prediction markets assigns elevated probability to the range reaching 4.25% or higher before year-end versus deeper cuts. Key near-term catalysts include the September dot plot, upcoming CPI and payroll releases, and any signals on the balance sheet or policy framework review.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
音量
$1,817,695
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x65070BE91...

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はい

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「2027年までにFRB金利はどのような打撃を受けるでしょうか？」はPolymarket上の21個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「↓ 3.5％」で100%、次いで「↑ 4.25％」が50%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、100¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に100%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2027年までにFRB金利はどのような打撃を受けるでしょうか？」は$1.8 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 18, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2027年までにFRB金利はどのような打撃を受けるでしょうか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている21個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2027年までにFRB金利はどのような打撃を受けるでしょうか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「↓ 3.5％」で100%であり、市場がこの結果に100%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「↑ 4.25％」で50%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2027年までにFRB金利はどのような打撃を受けるでしょうか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。