Recent inflation data and geopolitical tensions are shaping trader views on Federal Reserve policy, with the federal funds rate held at 3.5%-3.75% following the July FOMC meeting. Elevated oil prices, up roughly 25% amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, have pushed headline CPI expectations higher and contributed to three dissents favoring a hike at the last vote. Softer July employment figures have tempered some expectations, leaving CME FedWatch pricing a near-50% chance of a September increase versus a hold. The upcoming July CPI release and September FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts, while broader market-implied odds still reflect one potential 25-basis-point tightening by year-end against a backdrop of resilient growth and sticky core inflation around 2.5%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$2,294,174 Vol.
2026/12/08
9月会合
29%
10月会合
39%
$2,294,174 Vol.
9月会合
$865,790 Vol.
29%
10月会合
$468,384 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation data and geopolitical tensions are shaping trader views on Federal Reserve policy, with the federal funds rate held at 3.5%-3.75% following the July FOMC meeting. Elevated oil prices, up roughly 25% amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, have pushed headline CPI expectations higher and contributed to three dissents favoring a hike at the last vote. Softer July employment figures have tempered some expectations, leaving CME FedWatch pricing a near-50% chance of a September increase versus a hold. The upcoming July CPI release and September FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts, while broader market-implied odds still reflect one potential 25-basis-point tightening by year-end against a backdrop of resilient growth and sticky core inflation around 2.5%.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$2,294,174終了日
2026/10/29マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation data and geopolitical tensions are shaping trader views on Federal Reserve policy, with the federal funds rate held at 3.5%-3.75% following the July FOMC meeting. Elevated oil prices, up roughly 25% amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, have pushed headline CPI expectations higher and contributed to three dissents favoring a hike at the last vote. Softer July employment figures have tempered some expectations, leaving CME FedWatch pricing a near-50% chance of a September increase versus a hold. The upcoming July CPI release and September FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts, while broader market-implied odds still reflect one potential 25-basis-point tightening by year-end against a backdrop of resilient growth and sticky core inflation around 2.5%.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$2,294,174終了日
2026/10/29マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent inflation data and geopolitical tensions are shaping trader views on Federal Reserve policy, with the federal funds rate held at 3.5%-3.75% following the July FOMC meeting. Elevated oil prices, up roughly 25% amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, have pushed headline CPI expectations higher and contributed to three dissents favoring a hike at the last vote. Softer July employment figures have tempered some expectations, leaving CME FedWatch pricing a near-50% chance of a September increase versus a hold. The upcoming July CPI release and September FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts, while broader market-implied odds still reflect one potential 25-basis-point tightening by year-end against a backdrop of resilient growth and sticky core inflation around 2.5%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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