Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026 CPI, combined with elevated energy prices from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, has sustained market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike despite the policy rate holding at 3.50%-3.75% after the July FOMC meeting. Recent weaker-than-expected July job gains have tempered expectations for immediate action, yet three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase highlight internal committee debate. Futures markets currently price a gradual path higher, with the next key decision point at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting amid ongoing supply shocks and solid productivity trends.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$2,294,392 Vol.
2026/12/08
9月会合
27%
10月会合
39%
$2,294,392 Vol.
9月会合
$865,974 Vol.
27%
10月会合
$468,417 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026 CPI, combined with elevated energy prices from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, has sustained market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike despite the policy rate holding at 3.50%-3.75% after the July FOMC meeting. Recent weaker-than-expected July job gains have tempered expectations for immediate action, yet three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase highlight internal committee debate. Futures markets currently price a gradual path higher, with the next key decision point at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting amid ongoing supply shocks and solid productivity trends.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$2,294,392終了日
2026/10/29マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026 CPI, combined with elevated energy prices from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, has sustained market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike despite the policy rate holding at 3.50%-3.75% after the July FOMC meeting. Recent weaker-than-expected July job gains have tempered expectations for immediate action, yet three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase highlight internal committee debate. Futures markets currently price a gradual path higher, with the next key decision point at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting amid ongoing supply shocks and solid productivity trends.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$2,294,392終了日
2026/10/29マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026 CPI, combined with elevated energy prices from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, has sustained market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike despite the policy rate holding at 3.50%-3.75% after the July FOMC meeting. Recent weaker-than-expected July job gains have tempered expectations for immediate action, yet three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase highlight internal committee debate. Futures markets currently price a gradual path higher, with the next key decision point at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting amid ongoing supply shocks and solid productivity trends.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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