Recent May 2026 CPI data, showing a 0.5% monthly rise and 4.2% year-over-year acceleration—the highest since 2023, fueled by energy prices—has reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve caution, underpinning the 71.5% implied probability of pause–pause–pause across the June 16–17, July 28–29, and September 15–16 meetings. With the unemployment rate at 4.3% and core inflation also edging higher to 2.9%, market-implied odds reflect a data-dependent policy stance holding the federal funds rate steady amid elevated price pressures, consistent with recent FOMC communications emphasizing inflation risks over premature easing. The June meeting, just days away and paired with updated economic projections, serves as the immediate catalyst, while subdued cut pricing in CME FedWatch tools and comparable instruments highlights limited scope for shifts unless subsequent releases materially alter the inflation trajectory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Pause–Pause–Pause 72%
Other 13%
Pause–Pause–Cut 10.7%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.8%
新規
新規
2026/09/16
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
72%
Pause–Pause–Cut
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
13%
Pause–Pause–Pause 72%
Other 13%
Pause–Pause–Cut 10.7%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.8%
新規
新規
2026/09/16
Cut–Pause–Pause
$488 Vol.
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$540 Vol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$340 Vol.
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$270 Vol.
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,103 Vol.
72%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$331 Vol.
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$230 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$276 Vol.
1%
Other
$318 Vol.
13%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent May 2026 CPI data, showing a 0.5% monthly rise and 4.2% year-over-year acceleration—the highest since 2023, fueled by energy prices—has reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve caution, underpinning the 71.5% implied probability of pause–pause–pause across the June 16–17, July 28–29, and September 15–16 meetings. With the unemployment rate at 4.3% and core inflation also edging higher to 2.9%, market-implied odds reflect a data-dependent policy stance holding the federal funds rate steady amid elevated price pressures, consistent with recent FOMC communications emphasizing inflation risks over premature easing. The June meeting, just days away and paired with updated economic projections, serves as the immediate catalyst, while subdued cut pricing in CME FedWatch tools and comparable instruments highlights limited scope for shifts unless subsequent releases materially alter the inflation trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
音量
$3,896終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent May 2026 CPI data, showing a 0.5% monthly rise and 4.2% year-over-year acceleration—the highest since 2023, fueled by energy prices—has reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve caution, underpinning the 71.5% implied probability of pause–pause–pause across the June 16–17, July 28–29, and September 15–16 meetings. With the unemployment rate at 4.3% and core inflation also edging higher to 2.9%, market-implied odds reflect a data-dependent policy stance holding the federal funds rate steady amid elevated price pressures, consistent with recent FOMC communications emphasizing inflation risks over premature easing. The June meeting, just days away and paired with updated economic projections, serves as the immediate catalyst, while subdued cut pricing in CME FedWatch tools and comparable instruments highlights limited scope for shifts unless subsequent releases materially alter the inflation trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$3,896終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May 2026 CPI data, showing a 0.5% monthly rise and 4.2% year-over-year acceleration—the highest since 2023, fueled by energy prices—has reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve caution, underpinning the 71.5% implied probability of pause–pause–pause across the June 16–17, July 28–29, and September 15–16 meetings. With the unemployment rate at 4.3% and core inflation also edging higher to 2.9%, market-implied odds reflect a data-dependent policy stance holding the federal funds rate steady amid elevated price pressures, consistent with recent FOMC communications emphasizing inflation risks over premature easing. The June meeting, just days away and paired with updated economic projections, serves as the immediate catalyst, while subdued cut pricing in CME FedWatch tools and comparable instruments highlights limited scope for shifts unless subsequent releases materially alter the inflation trajectory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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