Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by recent stronger-than-expected readings and Middle East energy pressures, has anchored trader expectations for the June–September 2026 FOMC cycle at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds range. Both the June and July meetings delivered holds—the latter on a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike—while dot-plot projections lifted the 2026 median endpoint and removed easing signals under Chair Kevin Warsh. With the September 15-16 decision imminent, market-implied odds heavily favor a hike path, driving the 88% “Other” share as the dominant outcome and leaving only a slim 12% probability on three consecutive pauses. Stable labor-market data near 4.1% unemployment has provided little counterweight to price-stability concerns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Other 88%
Pause–Pause–Pause 12%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$871,834 Vol.
$871,834 Vol.
2026/09/15
Pause–Pause–Pause
12%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
88%
Other 88%
Pause–Pause–Pause 12%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$871,834 Vol.
$871,834 Vol.
2026/09/15
Pause–Pause–Pause
$337,891 Vol.
12%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$103,115 Vol.
<1%
Other
$374,951 Vol.
88%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by recent stronger-than-expected readings and Middle East energy pressures, has anchored trader expectations for the June–September 2026 FOMC cycle at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds range. Both the June and July meetings delivered holds—the latter on a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike—while dot-plot projections lifted the 2026 median endpoint and removed easing signals under Chair Kevin Warsh. With the September 15-16 decision imminent, market-implied odds heavily favor a hike path, driving the 88% “Other” share as the dominant outcome and leaving only a slim 12% probability on three consecutive pauses. Stable labor-market data near 4.1% unemployment has provided little counterweight to price-stability concerns.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
音量
$871,834終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by recent stronger-than-expected readings and Middle East energy pressures, has anchored trader expectations for the June–September 2026 FOMC cycle at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds range. Both the June and July meetings delivered holds—the latter on a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike—while dot-plot projections lifted the 2026 median endpoint and removed easing signals under Chair Kevin Warsh. With the September 15-16 decision imminent, market-implied odds heavily favor a hike path, driving the 88% “Other” share as the dominant outcome and leaving only a slim 12% probability on three consecutive pauses. Stable labor-market data near 4.1% unemployment has provided little counterweight to price-stability concerns.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$871,834終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by recent stronger-than-expected readings and Middle East energy pressures, has anchored trader expectations for the June–September 2026 FOMC cycle at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds range. Both the June and July meetings delivered holds—the latter on a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike—while dot-plot projections lifted the 2026 median endpoint and removed easing signals under Chair Kevin Warsh. With the September 15-16 decision imminent, market-implied odds heavily favor a hike path, driving the 88% “Other” share as the dominant outcome and leaving only a slim 12% probability on three consecutive pauses. Stable labor-market data near 4.1% unemployment has provided little counterweight to price-stability concerns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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