Elevated May 2026 CPI readings, with headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price spikes and resilient core measures near 2.9%, have reinforced trader expectations for unchanged policy at the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. The 70.5% market-implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause reflects the Fed’s data-dependent stance and higher-for-longer federal funds rate path near 3.5–3.75%, supported by firm labor conditions and above-target price pressures that reduce the likelihood of 25-basis-point easing. Limited odds on sequences involving cuts underscore uncertainty around potential inflation moderation or growth softening, while the imminent June 16–17 decision—with near-100% odds of no change—sets the tone for subsequent meetings. Upcoming July employment and CPI releases remain key swing factors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Pause–Pause–Pause 71%
Other 12%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11.2%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.9%
新規
新規
2026/09/16
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
71%
Pause–Pause–Cut
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
12%
Pause–Pause–Pause 71%
Other 12%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11.2%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.9%
新規
新規
2026/09/16
Cut–Pause–Pause
$488 Vol.
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$540 Vol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$340 Vol.
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$270 Vol.
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,103 Vol.
71%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$331 Vol.
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$230 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$276 Vol.
1%
Other
$318 Vol.
12%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated May 2026 CPI readings, with headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price spikes and resilient core measures near 2.9%, have reinforced trader expectations for unchanged policy at the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. The 70.5% market-implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause reflects the Fed’s data-dependent stance and higher-for-longer federal funds rate path near 3.5–3.75%, supported by firm labor conditions and above-target price pressures that reduce the likelihood of 25-basis-point easing. Limited odds on sequences involving cuts underscore uncertainty around potential inflation moderation or growth softening, while the imminent June 16–17 decision—with near-100% odds of no change—sets the tone for subsequent meetings. Upcoming July employment and CPI releases remain key swing factors.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
音量
$3,896終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated May 2026 CPI readings, with headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price spikes and resilient core measures near 2.9%, have reinforced trader expectations for unchanged policy at the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. The 70.5% market-implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause reflects the Fed’s data-dependent stance and higher-for-longer federal funds rate path near 3.5–3.75%, supported by firm labor conditions and above-target price pressures that reduce the likelihood of 25-basis-point easing. Limited odds on sequences involving cuts underscore uncertainty around potential inflation moderation or growth softening, while the imminent June 16–17 decision—with near-100% odds of no change—sets the tone for subsequent meetings. Upcoming July employment and CPI releases remain key swing factors.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$3,896終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated May 2026 CPI readings, with headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price spikes and resilient core measures near 2.9%, have reinforced trader expectations for unchanged policy at the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. The 70.5% market-implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause reflects the Fed’s data-dependent stance and higher-for-longer federal funds rate path near 3.5–3.75%, supported by firm labor conditions and above-target price pressures that reduce the likelihood of 25-basis-point easing. Limited odds on sequences involving cuts underscore uncertainty around potential inflation moderation or growth softening, while the imminent June 16–17 decision—with near-100% odds of no change—sets the tone for subsequent meetings. Upcoming July employment and CPI releases remain key swing factors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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