Recent U.S. inflation data, with the August 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year and core measures at 2.4%, combined with a stable labor market showing 4.1% unemployment and solid payroll gains, underpin trader consensus for no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Market-implied probabilities reflect this backdrop, with a 59.5% chance assigned to unchanged policy at the prevailing 3.5-3.75% target range, ahead of a 22.5% likelihood of a 25 basis point hike and 13.5% for a cut. Analysts from major banks have shifted rate-cut forecasts into mid-2027 amid resilient growth and lingering price pressures, while geopolitical factors influencing energy costs add to the cautious stance. The September 2026 FOMC dot plot and subsequent data releases remain key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日No change 60%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 4.3%
$71,002 Vol.
$71,002 Vol.
2027/01/27
50+ bps decrease
4%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
60%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
23%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
2%
No change 60%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 4.3%
$71,002 Vol.
$71,002 Vol.
2027/01/27
50+ bps decrease
$13,983 Vol.
4%
25 bps decrease
$14,873 Vol.
14%
No change
$21,181 Vol.
60%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$16,991 Vol.
23%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
$3,974 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data, with the August 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year and core measures at 2.4%, combined with a stable labor market showing 4.1% unemployment and solid payroll gains, underpin trader consensus for no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Market-implied probabilities reflect this backdrop, with a 59.5% chance assigned to unchanged policy at the prevailing 3.5-3.75% target range, ahead of a 22.5% likelihood of a 25 basis point hike and 13.5% for a cut. Analysts from major banks have shifted rate-cut forecasts into mid-2027 amid resilient growth and lingering price pressures, while geopolitical factors influencing energy costs add to the cautious stance. The September 2026 FOMC dot plot and subsequent data releases remain key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
音量
$71,002終了日
2027/01/27マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data, with the August 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year and core measures at 2.4%, combined with a stable labor market showing 4.1% unemployment and solid payroll gains, underpin trader consensus for no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Market-implied probabilities reflect this backdrop, with a 59.5% chance assigned to unchanged policy at the prevailing 3.5-3.75% target range, ahead of a 22.5% likelihood of a 25 basis point hike and 13.5% for a cut. Analysts from major banks have shifted rate-cut forecasts into mid-2027 amid resilient growth and lingering price pressures, while geopolitical factors influencing energy costs add to the cautious stance. The September 2026 FOMC dot plot and subsequent data releases remain key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$71,002終了日
2027/01/27マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. inflation data, with the August 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year and core measures at 2.4%, combined with a stable labor market showing 4.1% unemployment and solid payroll gains, underpin trader consensus for no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Market-implied probabilities reflect this backdrop, with a 59.5% chance assigned to unchanged policy at the prevailing 3.5-3.75% target range, ahead of a 22.5% likelihood of a 25 basis point hike and 13.5% for a cut. Analysts from major banks have shifted rate-cut forecasts into mid-2027 amid resilient growth and lingering price pressures, while geopolitical factors influencing energy costs add to the cautious stance. The September 2026 FOMC dot plot and subsequent data releases remain key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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