Recent U.S. inflation data, including the June 2026 CPI reading of 3.5% year-over-year after a 4.2% May print, alongside core measures near 2.6% and sticky PCE readings above the 2% target, have kept monetary policy expectations finely balanced for the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The unemployment rate holding steady near 4.2-4.4% reflects a stable but gradually softening labor market, while market-implied forward rates suggest traders see roughly even odds of a 25 basis point cut, hike, or no change as participants weigh persistent price pressures against moderating growth. These closely matched probabilities around 50% for each outcome underscore uncertainty ahead of key releases such as July CPI, employment reports, and any further central bank communications that could shift the balance between rate cut expectations and tightening signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 48%
No change 42%
25 bps decrease 28%
50+ bps decrease 17%
新規
新規
2027/01/27
50+ bps decrease
17%
25 bps decrease
28%
No change
42%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
48%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
16%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 48%
No change 42%
25 bps decrease 28%
50+ bps decrease 17%
新規
新規
2027/01/27
50+ bps decrease
$0 Vol.
17%
25 bps decrease
$0 Vol.
28%
No change
$0 Vol.
42%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$0 Vol.
48%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
$0 Vol.
16%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data, including the June 2026 CPI reading of 3.5% year-over-year after a 4.2% May print, alongside core measures near 2.6% and sticky PCE readings above the 2% target, have kept monetary policy expectations finely balanced for the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The unemployment rate holding steady near 4.2-4.4% reflects a stable but gradually softening labor market, while market-implied forward rates suggest traders see roughly even odds of a 25 basis point cut, hike, or no change as participants weigh persistent price pressures against moderating growth. These closely matched probabilities around 50% for each outcome underscore uncertainty ahead of key releases such as July CPI, employment reports, and any further central bank communications that could shift the balance between rate cut expectations and tightening signals.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2027/01/27マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data, including the June 2026 CPI reading of 3.5% year-over-year after a 4.2% May print, alongside core measures near 2.6% and sticky PCE readings above the 2% target, have kept monetary policy expectations finely balanced for the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The unemployment rate holding steady near 4.2-4.4% reflects a stable but gradually softening labor market, while market-implied forward rates suggest traders see roughly even odds of a 25 basis point cut, hike, or no change as participants weigh persistent price pressures against moderating growth. These closely matched probabilities around 50% for each outcome underscore uncertainty ahead of key releases such as July CPI, employment reports, and any further central bank communications that could shift the balance between rate cut expectations and tightening signals.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$0終了日
2027/01/27マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. inflation data, including the June 2026 CPI reading of 3.5% year-over-year after a 4.2% May print, alongside core measures near 2.6% and sticky PCE readings above the 2% target, have kept monetary policy expectations finely balanced for the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The unemployment rate holding steady near 4.2-4.4% reflects a stable but gradually softening labor market, while market-implied forward rates suggest traders see roughly even odds of a 25 basis point cut, hike, or no change as participants weigh persistent price pressures against moderating growth. These closely matched probabilities around 50% for each outcome underscore uncertainty ahead of key releases such as July CPI, employment reports, and any further central bank communications that could shift the balance between rate cut expectations and tightening signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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