Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with June CPI at 3.5% amid energy price pressures and Middle East supply shocks, has lifted market-implied odds of a 2026 federal funds rate hike to 54.5% for Yes. The FOMC has held the target range steady at 3.50–3.75% through its July meeting despite three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase, reflecting a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.1% and solid job gains. This balance stems from divided views on whether inflation will moderate enough to keep policy on hold versus renewed hawkish signals from Chair Warsh and FOMC projections. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases will likely serve as key catalysts that could shift the closely contested implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
55% 確率
$6,996,037 Vol.
$6,996,037 Vol.
2026/12/09
はい
55% 確率
$6,996,037 Vol.
$6,996,037 Vol.
2026/12/09
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with June CPI at 3.5% amid energy price pressures and Middle East supply shocks, has lifted market-implied odds of a 2026 federal funds rate hike to 54.5% for Yes. The FOMC has held the target range steady at 3.50–3.75% through its July meeting despite three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase, reflecting a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.1% and solid job gains. This balance stems from divided views on whether inflation will moderate enough to keep policy on hold versus renewed hawkish signals from Chair Warsh and FOMC projections. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases will likely serve as key catalysts that could shift the closely contested implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
音量
$6,996,037終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with June CPI at 3.5% amid energy price pressures and Middle East supply shocks, has lifted market-implied odds of a 2026 federal funds rate hike to 54.5% for Yes. The FOMC has held the target range steady at 3.50–3.75% through its July meeting despite three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase, reflecting a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.1% and solid job gains. This balance stems from divided views on whether inflation will moderate enough to keep policy on hold versus renewed hawkish signals from Chair Warsh and FOMC projections. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases will likely serve as key catalysts that could shift the closely contested implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$6,996,037終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with June CPI at 3.5% amid energy price pressures and Middle East supply shocks, has lifted market-implied odds of a 2026 federal funds rate hike to 54.5% for Yes. The FOMC has held the target range steady at 3.50–3.75% through its July meeting despite three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase, reflecting a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.1% and solid job gains. This balance stems from divided views on whether inflation will moderate enough to keep policy on hold versus renewed hawkish signals from Chair Warsh and FOMC projections. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases will likely serve as key catalysts that could shift the closely contested implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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