**Persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have shifted trader expectations toward a higher likelihood of steady Fed policy through 2026, supporting the 64.5% market-implied probability of no rate hike.** May 2026 CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year—its highest since 2023—driven largely by energy costs amid geopolitical supply shocks, with core inflation also edging higher to 2.9%. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% following a strong May jobs report, keeping the labor market firm and reducing near-term recession risks. These data points have prompted economists and futures markets to largely price out cuts for the remainder of the year while assigning only a moderate probability to hikes, with the CME FedWatch tool recently showing roughly a 66% chance of at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. The FOMC’s March 2026 dot plot still showed a median expectation for one cut by year-end, but recent communications from officials and updated surveys indicate a bias shift toward holding the 3.50%-3.75% target range, with limited dots now favoring hikes. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation and employment releases will serve as key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or alter this consensus. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated trader assessments of these macro dynamics rather than a guarantee of outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$2,028,661 Vol.
$2,028,661 Vol.
はい
$2,028,661 Vol.
$2,028,661 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...**Persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have shifted trader expectations toward a higher likelihood of steady Fed policy through 2026, supporting the 64.5% market-implied probability of no rate hike.** May 2026 CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year—its highest since 2023—driven largely by energy costs amid geopolitical supply shocks, with core inflation also edging higher to 2.9%. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% following a strong May jobs report, keeping the labor market firm and reducing near-term recession risks. These data points have prompted economists and futures markets to largely price out cuts for the remainder of the year while assigning only a moderate probability to hikes, with the CME FedWatch tool recently showing roughly a 66% chance of at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. The FOMC’s March 2026 dot plot still showed a median expectation for one cut by year-end, but recent communications from officials and updated surveys indicate a bias shift toward holding the 3.50%-3.75% target range, with limited dots now favoring hikes. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation and employment releases will serve as key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or alter this consensus. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated trader assessments of these macro dynamics rather than a guarantee of outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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