Elevated inflation readings and a divided FOMC have kept the market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026 near 54.5 percent. The policy rate remains at 3.50–3.75 percent after the July meeting, where three members dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point increase amid CPI at 3.5 percent year-over-year in June and persistent supply shocks from energy prices and tariffs. The June dot plot showed nine participants projecting higher rates by year-end, while incoming data indicate resilient growth and a stable labor market. Traders are watching the September FOMC decision, upcoming PCE and employment releases, and any further oil-price volatility for signals that could shift the closely balanced odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
55% 確率
$6,996,029 Vol.
$6,996,029 Vol.
2026/12/09
はい
55% 確率
$6,996,029 Vol.
$6,996,029 Vol.
2026/12/09
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation readings and a divided FOMC have kept the market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026 near 54.5 percent. The policy rate remains at 3.50–3.75 percent after the July meeting, where three members dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point increase amid CPI at 3.5 percent year-over-year in June and persistent supply shocks from energy prices and tariffs. The June dot plot showed nine participants projecting higher rates by year-end, while incoming data indicate resilient growth and a stable labor market. Traders are watching the September FOMC decision, upcoming PCE and employment releases, and any further oil-price volatility for signals that could shift the closely balanced odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
音量
$6,996,029終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation readings and a divided FOMC have kept the market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026 near 54.5 percent. The policy rate remains at 3.50–3.75 percent after the July meeting, where three members dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point increase amid CPI at 3.5 percent year-over-year in June and persistent supply shocks from energy prices and tariffs. The June dot plot showed nine participants projecting higher rates by year-end, while incoming data indicate resilient growth and a stable labor market. Traders are watching the September FOMC decision, upcoming PCE and employment releases, and any further oil-price volatility for signals that could shift the closely balanced odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$6,996,029終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation readings and a divided FOMC have kept the market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026 near 54.5 percent. The policy rate remains at 3.50–3.75 percent after the July meeting, where three members dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point increase amid CPI at 3.5 percent year-over-year in June and persistent supply shocks from energy prices and tariffs. The June dot plot showed nine participants projecting higher rates by year-end, while incoming data indicate resilient growth and a stable labor market. Traders are watching the September FOMC decision, upcoming PCE and employment releases, and any further oil-price volatility for signals that could shift the closely balanced odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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