Jerome Powell faces no active criminal charges or credible legal proceedings that could result in incarceration before 2027, driving the market-implied 98.3% probability of "No." The Department of Justice investigation launched in January 2026 over congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations was dropped without indictment in April, with courts citing insufficient evidence beyond policy disagreements. As a former Fed Chair whose governor term runs through 2028, Powell benefits from strong institutional protections, separation of powers, and the absence of prosecutable offenses under prevailing legal standards. While tail risks such as novel political retaliation or fabricated allegations remain theoretically possible in a polarized environment, they lack substantive basis in recent filings, earnings context, or regulatory actions and would require unprecedented overrides of due process.